10-4-18 NHL Hockey

647

Yesterday was a rough day in the NHL for me.  0-4 ATS from published picks.  My personal plays saved me, taking Montreal U2.5TT and Toronto ML. Yesterdays plays were: TOR PL, CAL, BOS, and San Jose.

Boston-125 continues their road trip, heading up to Buffalo+110.  Boston is coming off a blow out loss to Washington.  I look for them to be pissed and they are going to take it out on Buffalo.  Boston has an edge in a better Goalie and they were just embarrassed.  They also have the advantage of having that first game out of the way.  I was on Boston last night and with them not playing well, getting shut-out 7-0, I look for them to bounce back.  Boston ML-125. Lean Under 6.

Carolina-165 is at home to play the New York Islanders+140.  Carolina has a slight edge head to head in their last 30, winning 17.  They have a slightly better goalie and are at home.  Lean Carolina and OVER 6.

Washington+140 is coming off a 7-0 win last night where they shut out the Bruins at home.  They head to Pittsburgh-165 to take on the Penguins. The Penguins and Capitals met last season in the Eastern Conference 2nd round. It went 6 games, with the Capitals escaping with a 2-1 OT victory.  Over their last 30 games as an away dog, Washington has not fared well in Pittsburgh, going 11-19.  I lean Pittsburgh to get some slight revenge for the Capitals ending their season last year on their ice. Lean on the Over 6 goals.

Chicago-120 is heading to Ottawa+100 where they will both be playing their first game.  Ottawa traded away one of their star players, Karlsson a couple of weeks ago.  They will be adjusting to the ice without him.  Chicago has had some injuries to their goalie and as a result will start Cam Ward.  The numbers say to take Chicago, but it should be noted that Senators coach, Guy Boucher is 4-0-1 in season-opening games.  In spite of that, I lean Chicago and will take the Over 6.  The Senators are just 1-9 at home when the total is 6 or more over the last three seasons.

Columbus-135 heads to Detroit+115, to take on the Red Wings.  The O/U is 5.5.  The last 10 these two teams have played, the O/U is 2-7-1.  Theses two teams play each other close.  Columbus is 5-0 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when playing in Detroit.  Columbus will have their backup goalie starting tonight.  Detroit has had a lot of injury issues, forcing their younger players into the starting lineup and more expanded roles. History tells us this will be a close game.  I am taking Columbus and the Under 5.5.

Nashville-160 is taking on the Rangers in New York+140.  The O/U is set at 6.  In the last 3 years Nashville is 14-5 on the road when the total is 6 or more. Head to head the Rangers have had the advantage as of late.  But Nashville has the Goalie edge here and so I am taking Nashville-160.

Winnipeg Jets-110 travel to Saint Louis to take on the Blues-110.  The O/U is set at 6.  Over the last 3 years, Winnipeg is 7-2 vs. St. Louis. Add that to what I think Winnipeg as having a decisive advantage at Goalie and I will take them, Winnipeg.

I am running out of time and I need to get this out, so I am taking Dallas over Arizona.  I am taking Colorado over Minnesota.  and I am taking Las Vegas on the PL over Philadelphia.

Good Luck to All!!!

NUMBERS

The ratings are from 0-12.  0 being even and 12 being the best.

What do the numbers say?  Here are the leans from the numbers:

Boston+12, Carolina+4, Pittsburgh+2, Chicago+7, Columbus+4, Nashville+10, Winnipeg+4, Dallas+10, Colorado+4, and Las Vegas+6.

*Be cautious about laying anything over -175.  Look to either not play the game, or to go with the Puck Line (-1.5). Some books let you change the PL to -1 for reduced juice.