The SEC is looked at as the best conference in football but I always tend to think that the Big 10 is right up there with them. Not this year and maybe not for a while! Big 10 has showed a lot of weakness trying to find reasons not to play. It could easily hurt their future for football recruits. Some serious talent left last year with the 2 top quarterbacks in the draft in Tua Tagovaiola and Joe Burrow hitting the pros. LSU also lost themselves coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL. Even with the talent that left to the NFL, a ton of talent always comes in for the SEC and I have an amazing 6 teams in the top 12 preseason rankings. I hate to say this as a big 10 fan, but this year, the SEC is the best conference in football. Let’s see where these team stack up.
1. Alabama – Power Rating – 26
2019 Record – 11-2
Key Transitions – Tua Tagovailoa, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Jedrick Wills, Xavier McKinney and others to the NFlL:
Returning Production: 88th – O55% D60%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 1st ’18 – 5th ’19 – 1st
Recruiting – It’s Bama
Net YPP: 3.08 – It’s Bama
Turnover Margin: +18 – Saben would have their heads if it wasn’t this high
Schedule – Gifted Missouri and Kentucky from the schedule change. They get Georgia at home.
2019 closing line ATS – 7-6
2019 ATS Margin – +.6
Season Win Total: about 9
Summary: Losing Tua, Ruggs and Jeudy certainly hurt this team but with the number 1 draft class from 2017 and 2019 and 2 Very good QBS in Mac Jones, and Bryce young competing, I am not too worried. Nice to see Devana smith and Najee Harris returning. I Mean it’s Bama. Mac Jones is the favorite to start at quarterback on a reloaded team. The offense lost some serious firepower with Ruggs and Juedy going to the draft but it’s not like Jaylen Waddle and Devanta Smith aren’t capable future NFL players. The defense should definitely improve after giving up some embarrassing scores to Auburn and LSU. Allowing 4.8 yards per play wasn’t exactly Alabama football but I expect major improvement for 2020 from this unit Linebackers Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillion should be back who were injured early last year and will be coming back with a vengeance. Alabama was rewarded Kentucky and Missouri this year and they get to miss Florida.
My Wins – 9.25
2. Auburn – Power Rating – 21
2019 Record – 9-4
Key Transitions – Marlon Davidson, Noah Igbinoghene and Derrick Brown
Returning Production: 78th – O61% D60%
Recruiting – Around what Clemson has been doing
Recruting Ranking ’17 – 9th ’18 – 12th ’19 – 11th
Net YPP: .74 and really needs to get better. Expremly hard schedule last year.
Turnover Margin: +6 which is good
Schedule – Hard, but at least they got Tennessee instead of Florida and @South Carolina from the change. They do have to go to Georgia this year.
2019 closing line ATS – 9-4
2019 ATS Margin – +3.5 which is great!
Season win total: 6.5
Summary: Most intriguing team to me. Top 11 recruiting classes the last 3 years is very consistent. They lose some trenches to the draft but they return a decent amount of productions with 60% on both sides of the ball. I like how they return most of their skill positions with Seth Williams and Matthew Hill at WR. I love how they return Bo Nix at QB as well. Auburn hired Chad Morris as offensive coordinator who really didn’t get much of a shot at a Bielema decimated Arkansas team having only 2 years there before he got canned. He will have some very good talent coming back with Bo Nix and all of the skill positions in tact. Anthony Schwartz is said to be the fasted man in college football. If Auburn can rebuild the Trenches on both sides of the ball along with the secondary, this team will do some serous damage.
My number is 8 so over 6.5 is the play
3. Georgia – Power Rating – 20
2019 Record – 12-2
Key Transitions – QB Jake Fromm, OT Andrew Thomas, RB D’Andre swift, OT Isaiah Wilson
Returning Production: 59th – O50% D80%
Recruiting – Best 3 years in football
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 3rd ’18 – 1st ’19 – 2nd
2019 Net YPP: +1.79 on par
Turnover Margin: +3
Schedule – Hard. They play Bama and Auburn from the west. They always get Florida as well. That is at least 2 losses.
2019 closing line ATS – 8-6
2019 ATS Margin – +.2
Season Win total: 8.5
Summary: Jake from has went to the NFL and so did Swift and key parts of that offensive line. Does that matter? Maybe, but Georgia has recruited like a force of the past 4 years. It looks like Jaime Newman a transfer from Wake Forest will fill in at QB but I personally do not that that his fast style of offense is a fit. Newman’s offense at Wake ranked number 1 in pace of play at 82 average plays per game. JT Daniels is also transferring from USC and could have a shot to win the position. Kirby Smart decided to shake up the offense this year with the hire of Todd Monkin from Southern Miss. Hopefully he can fix this lethargic offense. The defense on the other hand may be the best in the country returning 80% production. Georgia will be a contender this year but they have a very hard schedule playing Alabama, Auburn and Florida.
Play: Under 8.5 – 2 star
4. Florida – Power Rating – 18.5
2019 Record – 11-2
Key Transitions – RB Le’Michael Perine, Edge Jabari Zuniga, WR Van Jefferson, LB Jonathan Greenard
2019 Returning Production: 61st – % D67%
Recruiting – averages in the O63teens
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 -’11th ’18 – 24th ’19 – 9th
2019 Net YPP: +1.57 which is solid
Turnover Margin: +5 where it needs to be
Schedule – Medium Easy – Gained Arkansas and @ Texas A&M – No Bama or Auburn. Gets LSU at home
2019 closing line ATS – 8-5
2019 ATS Margin – +5.4
Season Win Total: 7.5
Summary: This is a dangerous team with a great Schedule that could set themselves up for an SEC Championship run. Great top 11 recruiting over the past 4 years and decent returning production. The Gators due lose some skill positions like Van Jefferson and Josh Hammond but guys like Jacob Copeland and Justin Watkins should step right in. Returning their whole O-Line is huge. Their schedule consists of getting Texas A&M but avoiding Alabama and Auburn is huge this year. Getting LSU and South Carolina at home is nice. This team will go as far as Kyle Trask takes them.
MY Number: 8.5 so lean over
5. LSU – Power Rating – 17
2019 Record – 15-0
Key Transitions – lost everyone and their offensive gugu Joe Brady to the pros.
Returning Production: 125th – O30% D54%
Recruiting – Great
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 -’7th ’18 – 15th ’19 – 5th
2019 Net YPP: 2.78 – Amazing
Turnover Margin: +10
Schedule – Very hard – Got Bama, Auburn and at Florida. They kindly get Vanderbilt and Missouri added to the schedule as well.
2019 closing line ATS – 10-5
2019 ATS Margin – +8.1
Season Win Total: 7
Summary: I feel sorry for anyone who faded LSU before the season and during the season last year. Last year, LSU was the best college football team possibly ever. The tragic thing of course is all good things must come to an end and LSU lost everyone. I had to take this team down about 15 points in the power ratings but they still have had great recruiting and can earn their way back up. The Tigers do have some constancy at wide receiver and they bring in a touted Myles Brennan to try and take over the fast paced spread offense that Brady and Steve Ensminger introduced last year. If the RPO game looks sharp then this team can once again to great things. New defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is back to try and replace Dave Aranda’s success. He will switch the defense to a 4-3 which isn’t my style but it worked for Bo.
My Number 6.5 so lean under
6. Texas A&M – Power Rating – 15.5
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – None
Returning Production: 16th – O80% D74%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 13th ’18 – 17th ’19 – 4th
Recruiting – Great with Jimbo
Net YPP: .57 – not there
Turnover Margin: -6 bad
Schedule – Always hard in the west and they were going to avoid both Florida and Georgia but now they get Florida at home added and @ Tennessee
2019 closing line ATS – 7-6
2019 ATS Margin – -1.7
Season Win Total: 7
Summary: If not now then when? Kellen Mond is a returning 4 year starter here and this team has not lived up to expectations yet. I am more of a patient person with coaches because Jimbo Fischer is finally getting to his recruits but I don’t know how they win in this tough conference with an average college QB like Mond. The Aggies have to turn that turn that turnover margin over to the positive side before we start getting excited for this team. Mond was 20-9 for his TD to turnover ratio which isn’t that good. What this team has going for them is a lot of returning production and a great coach who has won a natty at Florida State. If the kids buy into him then they should be able to take another step up but i fear that they have to switch quarterbacks at some point here.
My Wins – 7 so no play
7. Tennessee – Power Rating – 8
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – Edge Darrell Taylor to the NFL
Returning Production: 50th- O68% D69%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 17th ’18 – 21st ’19 – 13th
Recruiting – Getting better
Net YPP: – +.78
Turnover Margin: -1
Schedule – Hard – The schedule wasn’t too bad until Auburn and A&M were added. Brutal
2019 closing line ATS – 7-6
2019 ATS Margin – +1.4
Season Win Total: 5
Summary: Its time for Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols to play like a real SEC team. Jerrit Gaurantanomo Bay should have some more tools here to take a step forward and further wash out the Butch Jones residue from 2017. Top 21 recruiting classes make them an interesting look this year. They rank about 50th in returning production which may be a good thing. The big problem here is that even though that they avoid Alabama, they still get Georgia, Auburn and Florida. Oklahoma at least falls off of their schedule. I am going to be looking at Tennessee games this year as an ATS darling.
My Number is 4.5 so lean under. Brutal schedule
8. Kentucky – Power Rating – 7.75
2019 Record – 8-5
Key Transitions – LB Kash Daniel and WR Lynn Bowden to the NFL
Returning Production: 25th – O68% D78%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 30th ’18 – 37th ’19 – 34th
Recruiting – Decent for what they are
Net YPP: – +.89
Turnover Margin: -1 – Not good enough
Schedule – Hard – Schedule got pretty tough with the added @ Alabama. Also got Ole Miss added
2019 closing line ATS – 10-3
2019 ATS Margin – +6.4
Season Win Total: 5 over is -145
Summary: Kentucky is starting to recruit like a legit college football Team. Top 35 all 3 years is good. I like this team but they do have a hard schedule going to Florida, Auburn, Tennessee and now at Alabama, Missouri and of course home against Georgia. If they can get some legitmate QB play out of Terry Wilson, Beau Allen or even Sawyer Smith, then I like them ATS all year long. Top 25 returning production helps but they will have to replace Kash Daniels at LB. It is going to take Mark Stoops a lot to get this team in contention but they are certainly a massive step higher than they were 5 years ago. I think Kentucky is going to upset someone big. Not sure who but it will happen this year.
My Number is 5.5 so lean over
9. South Carolina – Power Rating – 6.75
2019 Record – 4-8
Key Transitions – DT Javon Kinlaw
Returning Production: 32nd – O72% D72%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 21st ’18 – 18th ’19 – 21st
Recruiting – Standard for a team like this
Net YPP: -.35 Needs to improve this but they also had the hardest schedule in the league
Turnover Margin: +3 could be better
Schedule – Medium Easy – This team did inherit Auburn at home and @ Ole miss but tthey get to avoid Bama and A&M. They do get LSU.
2019 closing line ATS – 5-7
2019 ATS Margin – -1.9
Season Win Total: 3.5 over is -130
Summary: Ryan Hilinski is coming into this season without 3 running backs and 2 key wide receivers. The good news is that they only lost 1 offensive lineman. I like Ryan Hilinski and even though his numbers didn’t blow you away, he was just a freshman coming in and was able to put some points up vs Bama. I think the returning production on this team is pretty solid here ranking 32nd in the NCAA. The Gamecocks should be solid on defense this year even with the loss of Javon Kinlaw. They return 7 starters and 3 out of 5 secondary and 2 out of 3 linebackers. I think that the fact that they had such a hard schedule last year can help this team this year. Would not shock me to see them upset someone.
My Wins – 3.5 on the nose
10. Ole Miss – Power Rating – 6.5
2019 Record – 4-8
Key Transitions – Lane Kiffen to come and coach. No draft picks
Returning Production: – 35th – O78% D64%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 – 31st ’18 – 32nd ’19 – 22nd
Recruiting – Meh
Net YPP: +.18 – doesn’t feel right
Turnover Margin: +1 – Not terrible
Schedule – Bad – Auburn, LSU, Bama and then Florida. Added was South Carolina and Kentucky
2019 closing line ATS – 7-5
2019 ATS Margin – +1.7
Season Win Total: 4
Summary: Let the Lane Kiffin era begin! It will be Matt Corall or John Plumblee at QB who both have experience. This team exceeded my expectations last year with positive Yards per play. Good returning production on offense and solid recruiting ranking 22th to 32nd helps Lane jump right into this coaching position. I trust the growth coming from the offense here. Just look what Lane did at Florida Atlantic. What I am not sure about is how quickly the defense can be thrown together. DJ Durkin had a very rough stint at Maryland a few years back but he did have success at Florida years prior to that. This team if they can grasp the Kiffen play book can be dangerous.
My Wins 3.5 so strong lean under
11. Mississippi State – Power Rating – 5.5
2019 Record – 6-7
Key Transitions – Mike leach in as Coach. Joe Moorehead out. QB Tommy Stevens and LB Willie Gay to NFL.
Returning Production: – 110th – O54% D48%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –24th ’18 – 27th ’19 – 24th
Recruiting – Pretty good
Net YPP: -.24 yuck
Turnover Margin: +1
Schedule – Hard – They get typical Alabama, LSU and Auburn while inheriting Georgia and Vandy.
2019 closing line ATS – 5-8
2019 ATS Margin – -4.7
Season Win Total: 4 now juiced to the under
Summary: The good news is that this team is getting a grad Transfer in KJ Costello from Stanford to start at Quarterback this year. The bad news is that they rank 110th in returning production. This team has a new coach anyways in Mike Leach who will try to bring that high powered spread offense into the SEC. I used to say that was easier said that done until I saw some success with Auburn and LSU’s styles the past few years. One thing that we must note is that Mississippi State did not recruit bad at all the last few years averaging in the 20s. I think that this will be a honeymoon year for the Rebels but maybe Leach will eventually figure it out like he always does. Can’t wait to see this personality coach int he SEC.
My Wins – 3.5
12. Missouri – Power Rating – 3.5
2019 Record – 6-6
Key Transitions – None really
Returning Production: – 100th – O43% D64%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –43rd ’18 – 43rd ’19 – 47th
Recruiting – Like a bad power 5 school
Net YPP: +.41 – better than record showed
Turnover Margin: +1
Schedule – Hard – Had a great schedule until the SEC came in and dropped Alabama and LSU on them BRUTAL!!!
2019 closing line ATS – 4-8
2019 ATS Margin – -5.2 horrible
Season Win Total: 2.5 to the over is -140
Summary: This team has a lot of work to do. they return only 4 starters on offense and have no consistency at quarterback. The good news is that they have TCU transfer Shawn Robinson there who has experience and showed a lot of poise in 2018. They also have a nice grad transfer from Va Tech in Damon Hazelton who had over 1300 yards and 16 TDs the last 2 seasons. Missouri was a weird team who could not capitalize in the red zone with only a 73% success rate there. They also averaged a modest positive .4 yards per play which makes me scratch my head in why they were so bad. The Tiger’s defense last year actually wasn’t too bad only allowing 4.86 YPP and they return a solid 7 starters. They need some improvement in the offense to contend in this hard conference.
My Wins – 2.75 – Vandy and Arkansas at home are wins but they have a shot hosting Kentucky and slight at Mississippi State
13. Arkansas – Power Rating – -2
2019 Record – 2-10
Key Transitions – Sam Pittman as coach and Barry Odem as DC
Returning Production: – 58th – O63% D68%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –27th ’18 – 45th ’19 – 23rd
Recruiting – Still ok
Net YPP: -1.33 – Horrible
Turnover Margin: -5 – No surprise
Schedule – Hard – Another terrible team that got screwed with Florida and Georgia added to the schedule
2019 closing line ATS – 4-8
2019 ATS Margin – -8.2 horrible
Season Win Total: 1
Summary: Horrible Horrible Horrible. This is why you see a new coach in Sam Pittman in after Chad Morris was quickly escorted out after only 2 years. I personally think that Chad Morris was treated unfairly due to inheriting a debacle of a Brett Bielema squad. How can you fix a team without your own recruits!!!??? The good news is that Pittman has lots of experience at Georgia and knows what a winning program looks like. Anyways, this team has Felipe Franks who transferred from Florida with a second chance in life to compete for the starting QB position. This team at least returns all of their skill positions 4 out of 5 offensive lineman. The defense last year was the worst in the SEC and Barry Odem was hired to fix it. Until I see improvement, this team will continue to be on my fade train and especially with that -8.2 ATS margin from last year.
My Wins – .75 – They might get one at home vs Missouri but I wouldn’t bet that now. Mississippi State is another shot. No play
14. Vanderbilt – Power Rating – -7
2019 Record – 3-9
Key Transitions – keyshawn vaughn
Returning Production: – 71st – O35% D93%
Recruiting Rankings: ’17 –65th ’18 – 41st ’19 – 58th
Recruiting – Like a group of 5 school
Net YPP: -1.18 – Yuck and the schedule was easy last year
Turnover Margin: -2
Schedule – Medium Hard – Had Ole Miss and A&M but had LSU and Mississippi State added. Does it matter?
2019 closing line ATS – 4-8
2019 ATS Margin – -5.2 horrible
Season Win Total: .5
Summary: This Vanderbilt team was horrible last year and I am not even sure that this team even quit during the season. The biggest head scratcher to me is how the heck did they score 38 points vs LSU? Part of the reason is that there was a lot of injuries last year for Vandy and after that game, and they were not able to beat anyone with a pulse. The loss at home to UNLV was the height of their demise and it is a surprise to some that Derek Mason kept his job. The team needs some serious help on defense and they went hired Ted Roof who is most known for his defense at Georgia Tech and he will switch the scheme to a 4-3 which could actually help stop the run. Let’s see if there is much improvement from last year but the recruiting has really not been there to give me any optimism.
My Wins – Poor bastards will probably go 0-10. At Missouri might be the only shot
References:
247 Sports: https://247sports.com/season/2017-football/compositeteamrankings/
Bill Connelly of ESPN https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28649423/college-football-teams-most-returning-production-2020
