Virginia Tech vs Florida PK O/U 137
This game is being played at the Hinkle fieldhouse in Indianapolis IN. I must say that both of these teams are fortunate to be in this thing. Both of them are good teams but neither are great at anything. Virginia Techs early win vs Villanova certainly helped them get in and Florida’s win vs West Virginia helped give them the nod. The secret to beat Virginia Tech is to slow down their best player in Keve Aluma who leads the team in points per game, rebounds and assists. I really do not like the way the Hokies finished their season after beating Virginia outright, they lost to Pittsburgh, went to OT vs Miami, and then lost at home to Georgia Tech. Florida didn’t show well either losing to at home to Missouri then at Tennessee. Virginia tech is the better assist to turnovers and Florida is the better shooting team 46.4% to 45.1%. I have Florida Winning 71-69 so lean to Florida and the over.
Lean Florida PK and over 137
Colgate vs Arkansas -9 O/U 162.5
I think this is actually going to be a better game than expected. Colgate is definitely in an inferior conference in the Patriot league, but this is the team that really has Cinderella stamped all over it. Colgate ranks an amazing 5th in FG% at 49.9 and their defense has not been bad at all ranking 37th in opponent FG% at 40.8%. Colgate is also a good rebounding team ranking 17th in the league in in grabbing the boards. Arkansas is the most complete team in the SEC are good at grabbing the boards as well and they are a very complete team ranking 16th on Kenpom.. This team plays very fast at 73.1 adjusted possessions per game and have a great defense ranking 14th on Kenpom. That is a rarity seeing stats line up like that where a team is strong both on defense while playing at a high speed. The Razorbacks really have no big weaknesses minus ranking 100th best in defending the 3 and it takes a very hot team who can shoot the 3-ball to beat them. In saying that, I think that Colgate could be a live dog here. Colgate ranks 3rd in 3 point percentage at 40% and ranks number 1 in defending the 3 on defense allowing only 26.1% to go in. The total on this game is massive because both teams rank in the top 25 in tempo. I have Arkansas winning this game 83-78 so I have a lean to the under but I will be betting Colgate here for sure.
Colgate +9 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Utah State vs Texas Tech -4 O/U 131
This game is an interesting smaller conference vs power 5 conference to me. Utah State for a while had my interest and I thought that they had a shot to win the Mountain West until San Diego State woke up. Utah State certainly has the height and rebounding advantage here and they are a good passing team but that’s really about it and the Red Raiders have been a good tournament team. The issue with Utah State is that they turn the ball over 19.6% of the time while Texas Tech ranks 8th in defensive turnover percentage. If Utah states 7’0 foot big man Neemias Queta gets going on D inside, Texas Tech will be forced to rely on jump shots which I really do not like and especially if you can’t rebound the ball. Mac McClung has been Utah State’s leader who transferred in last year from Georgetown, but he has been a hot and cold player himself. I can see the upside with Texas Tech but not ready to play it at this number. I have Texas Tech winning 67.5-63 here.
Lean Texas Tech
Oral Roberts vs Ohio State -16.5 O/U 156.5
Wouldn’t it be nice to get Oral Roberts and Colgate matched up in the sweet 16 here? We can call it the don’t forget to floss 16, the quit eating sweets 16? Now this game has a very high total and I must say that I am not sure that I disagree with it. Oral Roberts is a fantastic shooting team who plays fast at 71.8 possessions per game. Oral Roberts hits 3s at an 11th best 38.8% which is 11th best in the league. They also shoot a ton of them making up 46% of all of their shots. Ohio State will have to have good ball pressure in order to stop them from scoring. In saying that, the Buckeye’s offense is one of the most efficient in the NCAA ranking 4th on Kenpom but their defense only ranks 79th on Kenpom and 10th in the Big 10. Don’t talk about defense around Oral Roberts because they just don’t play it ranking 285th in defensive efficiency on Kenpom. I think that the Golden Eagles would rather have a root canal than play D. Ohio State doesn’t defend the 3 ball well ranking 191st on Kenpom allowing 34% to go in so lean is on Oral Roberts.
Lean Oral Roberts
