Baylor vs Hartford -26 O/U 140
This is the biggest spread so far barring Gonzaga’s matchup with App State/Norfolk State. I really do not love how Baylor finished their season, but I will say that they have some serious upside when it comes to this tournament. Hartford’s offense is horrible ranking 254th on Kenpom but their defense has a small breath of life in it at 124th on Kenpom. The America East conference is pretty bad this year and Hartford isn’t even the best team in it due to Vermont losing to them. I think this game is about defense for the Bears. Baylor stated that they will improve their defense going forward so I will be somewhat amazed if Hartford scores over 50 points here. In saying that, Baylor has no reason to try and get a blowout when they will have a tough game vs North Carolina or Wisconsin up next. I will grab the under here and I have Baylor winning this game 80-50.
Under 140 – 1.5 stars
Wisconsin vs North Carolina -1.5 O/U 139
The funny thing is that I keep asking myself, why the heck haven’t I bet North Carolina? Well, it should be quite obvious to people that Wisconsin is massively overrated on Kenpom ranking 10th in the nation and they are over-rated on Bart Torvik at 12th in the nation but then I have to ask myself, why the hell is North Carolina favored when they only rank 31st on Torvik and 28th on Kenpom. Does the whole world think that UNC is better than Wisconsin when the metric’s don’t line up? I mean, the Tarheels have their own problems turning the ball over 20.5% of the time along with a horrible effective FG% ranking 257th and 48.5% Here’s the deal in this game, the Tarheels rank 2nd in the nation and will rebound their own misses while they will be rebounding Wisconsin’s as well. The question that I have is will Wisconsin be able to box them out some and will Wisconsin hit the 3? The Badgers shoot a lot of 3s and they will not have a post game vs the Tar Heels. UNC does not defend the 3 ball well allowing 34.4% to go in. Lots of variance in this game and I can see Wisconsin getting blown out if they can’t hit and I could also see UNC getting blown out if they play sloppy and the Badgers hit the 3. I don’t think the spread will matter this game. I have this game one team 75 and the other team 61. Not sure which one but the total that I got is 136
Lean under
North Texas vs Purdue -7 O/U 127
Purdue could make a little noise here in this tournament and I like where they are seeded. Baylor will be their biggest hurdle but if they somehow can get past them, they have a legitimate shot at beating Ohio State who they have already beaten twice this year. Now both of these teams play a very slow game with North Texas ranking 350th in pace of play and Purdue ranking 274th. I must say that I think that Conference USA is not a good basketball conference and when North Texas stepped up to the plate to play better teams, they pretty much lost all of those games and many were not close. North Texas’s best win was against number 82 LA tech who I also think is overrated. My numbers with the North Texas downgrade has this game Purdue winning 66-58 so I lean Purdue and the under right now.
Lean under 127 and lean Purdue
Winthrop vs Villanova -6.5 O/U 141.5
I must say that I was hoping that Winthrop got a Missouri, or an Oklahoma or something. I am not too happy that they have to face a very talented Villanova team who has a chip on their shoulder after losing Collin Gillespie. I was high on Winthrop getting to this tournament as a potential Cinderella, but here, they will have their work cut out for them. Winthrop is a well rounded lower conference team who only has 1 loss all season but they certainly do not have any good wins either with their strongest victory against number 92 Furman way back in December. Villanova is quite a bit weaker on defense this year and they are venerable to the three allowing 35.3% to go in, but they are still playing in a much more talented conference than Winthrop is. The Wildcats play slow and the Eagles play fast. Gonna be a little clash here but it Winthrop gets hot, Nova does not have their guy in Gillespie that can put them back in the game. Kenpom has this game a 10 point spread so the market is factoring in 3.5 points for the injury.
Lean Nova
