2022 NFL Draft – Round One Impressions

April 29, 2022

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2022 NFL DRAFT – DAY TWO – This quick report resets the table for day two of the draft.

Round One and Two Quick Thoughts:

It was nice to see the streets lined with football fans in Las Vegas. Hopefully everyone had a good and safe time.
As I said in the draft previews, this draft was about roster building. This was an average draft at the top of the board, but one of the deepest, if not the deepest overall drafts I’ve covered in my 40+ years. I had 272 players with draft eligible grades this year. The number was just 224 in 2021. Smart teams will find gems on days two and three.
Before the draft I listed OL, edge rusher and CB as the three deepest positions. An amazing nine OL were drafted, along with five edge rushers and four CB’s, plus a safety who can also play CB. That was not a surprise.
In a surprise to some, only one QB was drafted. GM’s and scouts knew better than fans. This was a pretty bad class.
No RB or TE made the 1^st round, but that was anticipated. Are these bad classes? NO! I have almost double the number of rated RB’s as I had a year ago. The TE class has fantastic day two talent. Patience, please.
I had 32 players with round one grades. 28 went in the 1^st round. OG Cole Strange had a mid-to-late 2^nd round grade. Draft riser LB Quay Walker had a similar range. OT Tyler Smith and safety Lewis Cine were in the 30-35 range.
Eight teams started the draft with multiple 1^st round picks. Amazingly, nine teams ended day one with multiple picks, with the NYJ having three picks. That means a record ten teams did not select a player on Thursday. That’s crazy.
Nine trades were made, all after picks 1-10. Two top level WR’s were traded. Arizona got the better of Baltimore when they traded for Marquise Brown. Philly missed out on a top WR draftee but made up for it by securing former Tennessee WR A.J. Brown. The Lions stunningly moved up 20 spots, but got fair trade value and a top tier WR.
Oh, New York, New York. The Jets might have found three instant starters in the 1^st round. The NYG certainly found two gems at picks 5 and 7. It’s nice to see teams at the bottom finally do the right things on draft day.
Here’s some other teams that did well: The Lions (yes, I’m not kidding) got a solid ten-year starter along the DL and came back and added a top tier WR. Check off two boxes for this team, and for once they have a glimmer of hope. KC added two defensive players who can fill needs. Yes, the Saints are down to five picks (again), but in OT Penning and WR Olave they had a top tier 1^st round draft haul. Many other teams hit their need board head on.
Let’s give a shout out to Houston. Yes, there’s risk-reward with CB Stingley, but I’ve never seen this team win a draft trade like they did when they got a four for one draft haul for moving down two spots. OG Green can start right away.
Safe picks: Detroit and edge rusher Hutchinson. The Saints, with WR Olave and OT Penning.
Nice person-team fits: The NYG and edge rusher Thibodeaux. I think this works. The Chargers and OG Zion Johnson.
Value picks: Kyle Hamilton to Baltimore. Speed aside, he’s got top ten instincts. The Jets and edge rusher Jermaine Johnson. He dropped in the draft, hopefully not because of some unknown serious issue. GB and DT Wyatt. It’s rare to put GB in the value slot, but this is a pick and a position long overdue.
Risky picks: Stingley for Houston. WR Dotson for Washington. He’s a fine player, but durability could be an issue, and the team traded down when Chris Olave and Jamison Williams were still available. GB and Quay Walker. NE and OG Cole Strange. He could be a long-term complementary starter, but is that what NE was really going for in round one?
And now, let’s talk Pittsburgh: I’m not really sure who is better, Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis, but I was more than mildly surprised that Pickett was the choice. Willis has the most volatility of almost any QB I have studied over the last decade, but it’s what I thought the Steelers would do. After playing basically ZERO games after Thanksgiving, and very few cold weather or rainy games, Kenny Pickett will be tasked with roughly five cold weather games per season as a pro. He already has 38 career fumbles. The plusses are experience, poise, decent elusiveness in the pocket, and the ability to read the full field. The concerns are hand size in cold and wet weather, average anticipation and touch, and that low Wonderlic score (17) which can be an issue for QB’s. He’s the most ready to go QB but how high is his ceiling?
With that said, no one really stood out as bombing the draft thus far, which is rare, but may speak to the depth of the draft class. Let’s hope this continues throughout the draft process.
What’s next? I expect WR’s and DB’s to continue to be targeted on day two, and the floodgates will eventually open up at RB and TE, with round three landing spots for multiple players at each position. Four QB’s will be day two targets. There’s plenty of fast edge rushers left. It’s rare, but viable players at most, if not all positions are available.
Each year in this spot I list players who will be high targets for the next round. On offense, look for QB’s Willis, Ridder and perhaps Corral, RB’s Breece Hall and Kenny Walker, and WR’s Metchie, Pickens, and Watson, (with Pierce and Skyy Moore also possible). David Bell may not be taken early, but I’m intrigued by his skill set. For TE, it’s Tre McBride soon. TE Kolar may be a 3^rd round gem. OL include OT’s Lucas, and enormous Daniel Faalele, and a few other OL could be in the mix. Defensively, look for injured edge rusher David Ojabo (Achilles) to get an early call, with Boye Mafe and Arnold Ebiketie possibly soon to follow. DT’s such as Travis Jones and Logan Hall have solid round two grades. LB Nakobe Dean should hear his name called early. Three CB’s, Roger McCreary, Andrew Booth and Kyler Gordon have solid draft grades. The next safety called could wait just a bit longer. That’s it for now. Let’s get round two started!