2022 NHL Playoff Preview – 2nd Round

May 16, 2022

516

We’re onto the second round of the NHL Playoffs. The first round certainly lived up to the hype with five of the eight series going the distance. We didn’t really have any major upsets with the Blues being the biggest upset in terms of odds. The 2nd round gives us some incredible matchups including the ‘Battle of Florida’ and the ‘Battle of Alberta’.

Overall Stanley Cup Odds

Click the following link to see the most updated odds and the line movement throughout the season.

Eastern Conference

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The Panthers rattled off three wins in a row to defeat the Washington Capitals 4-2. This was their first playoff series win since 1996 when the reached the Stanley Cup Final. In all three of those games they came from behind which makes sense as they’re known as the ‘Comeback Cats’. Florida led the NHL in come back wins during the regular season with 29 and has continued that trend in the post season. Out of all the offensive firepower Florida has, Carter Verhaeghe led the Panthers in points with 12 (six goals and six assists). He scored the OT winner in Game 4 and again in Game 6 which was the series clincher. One area of the concern for the Panthers is their Power Play that went 0-18. They became the ninth team in NHL history to win a best of seven series without scoring on the man advantage.

The Lightning also came back in their series from being down 3-2 to win in Game 7. The Leafs playoff woes continue as they have yet to win a playoff series since 2004. Tampa Bay on the other hand continues their quest for three consecutive Stanley Cups, a feat that was last achieved by the New York Islanders. The Islanders actually won four cups in a row which stretched from 1980-83.

Nick Paul, who was acquired from the Senators on March 20th, was the Game 7 hero scoring both goals. Crazy enough, those were his first two playoff career goals. Brayden Point, who scored the OT winner in Game 6, is questionable for the first few games of the series which is a significant loss for this team. Andrei Vasilevskiy had an up and down series leading up to Game 7, but had an outstanding performance when they needed him the most with a +2.58 GSAx in the final game of the series. Nikita Kucherov, who led the post season in points last year with 32, is averaging over a point per game and will need to continue to be a key contributor.

These teams met last year in the post season where Tampa Bay defeated Florida in six games. The Panthers goaltending was an absolute mess last year with three different goalies starting a game in that series. Bobrovsky, who has historically struggled against the Lightning, will look for redemption. This is the best team that Florida has put on the ice maybe ever so he’ll have support but, ultimately their success depends on him. They played four times during the regular season splitting the series. In their last regular season game, the Lightning stomped the Panthers 8-4 ending their thirteen game win streak that they were on. The Lightnings path to success depends on goaltending as well but, Andrei Vasilevskiy has proven himself over the course of the past few seasons. Last year, Vasilevskiy was other worldly with a +26.6 GSAx in the post season winning the Conn Smythe Trophy.

For me, Florida is still unproven while the Lightning turn into this other animal in the playoffs. Without Point, the Lightning aren’t nearly as good so hopefully he can return to the lineup as soon as possible. To be honest, I have no idea who wins this series. I want to say Florida as I believe their a better team but, the Lightning have the experience and significant advantage in net. Given the animosity these two teams have for each other, I do think this ultimately goes six or seven games, which is my bet.

Series Total – 6 Games (+210) – 0.50 Units
Series Total – 7 Games (+210) – 0.50 Units

Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers

The Carolina Hurricanes took down the Boston Bruins in seven games. Max Domi, son of Tie Domi, was the Game 7 hero scoring twice. The Hurricanes acquired him at the trade deadline which proved to be a great move. This series was all about home ice advantage as the home side won every game. The Hurricanes showed that they could match Boston’s physicality while also out performing them on the score board. This is an incredibly talented team with no real weaknesses. They’re expected to get their number one goaltender back in Frederick Anderson as well. Antti Raanta, had the majority of the netminder duties in this series and played well finishing the series with a 2.37 GAA and .927 SV%. Tony DeAngelo and Jaccob Slavin lead the Hurricanes in points with 8 a piece. DeAngelo, will face off against his former team who placed him on waivers after a confrontation with a teammate.

The New York Rangers clawed their way back from being down 3-1 in the series to win Game 7 at home. This is an interesting team as they’re likely Vezina winner goaltending Igor Shesterkin had some struggles. However, he came through in Game 7 with a +1.86 GSAx. If the Rangers will want to have any chance in this series they’ll need to rely on him, which is something that they’ve done all season. The Rangers are horrific 5v5 ranking dead last in xGoal% (5v5). They face off against the Hurricanes who were tied for the third best xGoal% (5v5) in the regular season. Mika Zibanejad leads the team in points with 11 followed by Adam Fox who has 10.

Carolina proved that their a cup contender much more than the Rangers did in the first round. As I mentioned before, they’re a complete team that can beat you in a variety of ways. The Rangers need to rely on their special teams to have a chance and given how disciplined the Hurricanes are, I’m not sure they’ll have many chances. The Hurricanes won three of the four regular season matchups against New York which included two at MSG. Given how these teams matchup, I don’t really know what chance the Rangers have. They’ll be looking to ride that momentum from coming back in the first round but I’m not sure it’ll be enough. I think they can win a game and possibly two but ultimately I see Carolina advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 Games (+110) – 1 Unit

Western Conference

Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues

The Colorado Avalanche were the lone team to complete a sweep in the first round. They took down the Predators in four who really didn’t stand a chance. It essentially was a waste of eight days for them to quote Calgary Flames Head Coach Darryl Sutter. However, now’s when the hard part begins for Colorado as they have been eliminated in the second round in each of the past three years. If there’s ever a lineup to do it, it’s this one. Cale Makar leads the Avalanche in points with 10. He became the first defenseman in NHL history to record 10 points in a four game series. Gabriel Landeskog who returned from injury in time for the playoffs is tied for second on the team with Nathan MacKinnon at six points. The Avalanche’s Power Play was deadly in the first round converting at a rate of 43.8%. It’ll be interesting to see if they can continue at that rate given how good St. Louis’ Penalty Kill was in the first round. Darcy Kuemper who suffered an eye injury in Game 3 is expected to make his return after missing Game 4. He was solid in the those two and a half games with a 1.63 GAA and .934 SV%.

The Blues took down the Minnesota Wild 4-2 and proved that their a legit contender. They have a ton of offensive depth with Perron, O’Reilly, and Tarasenko all scoring five goals in the first round. Their third line of Saad, Barbashev, and Kyrou even contributed, tallying 11 points as a unit. This line may be the difference in this series as it offers the Blues bottom six scoring that the Avalanche lack. Jordan Binnington took over the net from Ville Husso after Game 3 and looked to return to his 2019 post season form. Over the course of those three games he had a 1.32 GAA and .943 SV% compared to Husso’s 3.02 GAA and .906 SV%. The Blues Power Play was also great in the first series converting at a rate of 30.8% and will face Colorado’s Penalty Kill that ranked 11th out of the 16 teams.

This will not be a cake walk series that Colorado had in the first round. The Blues are a physical team that can matchup with the Avalanche and give their top guys some issues. St. Louis does have some issues on the back end with rotating injuries that could be the difference maker. If the Blues don’t have their top six defenseman it significantly hurts their chances here. For St. Louis to win, they’ll need to continue to get offensive production from everyone and Binnington will need to stand on his head. Last year, these teams met in the first round and Colorado swept them but as Blue’s Captain Ryan O’Reilly said, this is a completely different team. For Colorado, they just need to continue their fast pace style of hockey and not let St. Louis rattle them physically. The Avalanche should win this series as they are the better team but if anyone can beat them, it’s this Blues team.

Series Total – 6 Games (+235) – 0.50 Units
Series Total – 7 Games (+275) – 0.50 Units
Series Correct Score – Colorado Avalanche 4-2 (+350) – 0.25 Units

Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers

Possibly the most anticipated second round series, the Battle of Alberta. The Oilers defeated the Kings in seven games coming back from being 3-2. Connor McDavid was absolutely unbelievable in the first round which may even sell him short. He leads the Playoffs in points with 14 (four goals and ten assists). I haven’t seen someone take over a Game 7 like that before. In addition to McDavid, goaltender Mike Smith was also great and leads all goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected with a +10.4 rating. Evander Kane who the Oilers acquired late in the season proved be a great pickup as he finished the series with seven goals. Leon Draisaitl who had 110 points in the regular season struggled a bit with a nagging injury but still manage to tally nine points.

The Flames also required seven games to close out their series against ~~Jake Oettinger~~ the Dallas Stars. Calgary struggled a bit to break through the defensive style hockey that Dallas plays. It also helped that Stars netminder Jake Oettinger was absolutely unbelievable throughout the entire series. Even through Oettinger won the goalie battle in terms of GSAx, Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom didn’t have a bad series himself. Through those seven games he finished with a +4.8 GSAx which ranks 3rd. Johnny Gaudreau led the Flames in points with 8 while Matthew Tkachuk followed him up with 6. Calgary faces a Edmonton team that plays a less defensive style of hockey so we should see their offensive production increase significantly in the second round.

Despite both goalies playing well in round one, all I see is goals in this series. Both teams played similar style teams in the first round and while this series will be physical, it should also be very high scoring. In terms of a winner, I think Calgary prevails. They’re just an overall better team than the Oilers and have the depth up front. While Mike Smith is playing great right now, he can be streaky and if the Flames rattle him up in the first few games the wheels may come off, and fast.