The Stanley Cup Finals begin Wednesday between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to win their third consecutive Stanley Cup. If they do succeed, they would be the first team to win three times in a row since the New York Islanders won the Stanley Cup four straight seasons from 1980-83. On the other hand, the Colorado Avalanche return to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2001.
These teams took to different roads to the Stanley Cup. The Lightning have had all two of their three series go at least six games, while the Avalanche have swept two of their three series. Colorado took down Edmonton in four games in Western Conference Finals and will not have played for nine days before Game 1. The Bolts defeated the Rangers in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals and will only have three days rest.
I’ll breakdown both teams and offer my best bets for who I think will take home the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche
Schedule:
- Game 1: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 15, 8 PM ET)
- Game 2: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 18, 8 PM ET)
- Game 3: COL Avalanche @ TB Lightning (June 20, 8 PM ET)
- Game 4: COL Avalanche @ TB Lightning (June 22, 8 PM ET)
- Game 5*: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 24, 8 PM ET)
- Game 6*: COL Avalanche @ TB Lightning (June 26, 8 PM ET)
- Game 7*: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 28, 8 PM ET)
* if necessary
Tampa Bay Lightning
Path to Finals
- 1st Round: Tampa Bay Lightning def. Toronto Maple Leafs (7 Games: 4-3)
- 2nd Round: Tampa Bay Lightning def. Florida Panthers (4 Games: 4-0)
- 3rd Round: Tampa Bay Lightning def. New York Rangers (6 Games: 4-2)
Unlike Colorado, Tampa Bay has had to go through several tough teams to make it to the Finals. In the first round, they took down Toronto in seven after being down 3-2 heading into Game 6. The Maple Leafs threw everything they had at Tampa Bay but ultimately the play of Vasilevskiy was the difference in the last two games of that series. In round two, they took down Florida with ease in the Battle of Florida. Tampa Bay’s playoff experience reigned supreme as they won every game in regulation. Most recently, the Lightning defeated the New York Rangers in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Igor Shesterkin but up a hell of a fight and leads the post season in GSAx.
Statistics:
| Category | Playoffs |
| Goals For per Game | 3.06 |
| SOG For per Game | 32.5 |
| Goals Against per Game | 2.41 |
| SOG Against per Game | 31.9 |
| Shooting % | 9.4 % |
| Power Play % | 22.6 % |
| Penalty Kill % | 82.5 % |
Team Leaders – Points:
| Player | Goals | Assists | Points | Shots per Game |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7 | 16 | 23 | 3.53 |
| Ondrej Palat | 8 | 8 | 16 | 2.12 |
| Steven Stamkos | 9 | 6 | 15 | 3.18 |
Team Leaders – Goalies:
| Goalie | Games Played | Record | GAA | SV% | GSAx |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 17 | 12-5 | 2.27 | .928% | +12.7 |
Projected Line Combinations:
| Ondrej Palat | Steven Stamkos | Nikita Kucherov |
| Brandon Hagel | Anthony Cirelli | Alex Killorn |
| Ross Colton | Nicholas Paul | Corey Perry |
| Pat Maroon | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | Riley Nash |
| Victor Hedman | Jan Rutta |
| Ryan McDonagh | Erik Cernak |
| Mikhail Sergachev | Zach Bogosian |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy |
| Brian Elliott |
Injuries: Brayden Point (lower body)
Colorado Avalanche
Path to Finals
- 1st Round: Colorado Avalanche def. Nashville Predators (4 Games: 4-0)
- 2nd Round: Colorado Avalanche def. St. Louis Blues (6 Games: 4-2)
- 3rd Round: Colorado Avalanche def. Edmonton Oilers (4 Games: 4-0)
The Avalanche have had a pretty non-threating run to get to the Stanley Cup Finals. In round 1 they faced a Nashville team without Vezina nominee Juuse Saros. Without Saros the Predators just weren’t able to compete with the David Rittich/ Connor Ingram combination. In the second round, the Blues gave them a tough challenge but after losing Jordan Binnington they were only able to win one additional game. Most recently, in the Western Conference Finals, they faced Mike Smith who had a negative GSAx in every game. Colorado hasn’t had to face a goalie as talented as Vasilevksiy which should make it their most difficult challenge yet.
Statistics:
| Category | Playoffs |
| Goals For per Game | 4.64 |
| SOG For per Game | 40.7 |
| Goals Against per Game | 2.86 |
| SOG Against per Game | 28.2 |
| Shooting % | 11.4 % |
| Power Play % | 31.1 % |
| Penalty Kill % | 75.7 % |
Team Leaders – Points:
| Player | Goals | Assists | Points | Shots per Game |
| Cale Makar | 5 | 17 | 22 | 3.64 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 11 | 7 | 18 | 5.86 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 8 | 9 | 17 | 3.00 |
Team Leaders – Goalies:
| Goalie | Games Played | Record | GAA | SV% | GSAx |
| Darcy Kuemper | 10 | 6-2 | 2.65 | .897% | -4.4 |
| Pavel Francouz | 6 | 6-0 | 2.86 | .906% | +0.0 |
Projected Line Combinations:
| Gabriel Landeskog | Nathan MacKinnon | Valeri Nichushkin |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Mikko Rantanen | Andre Burakovsky |
| Alex Newhook | J.T. Compher | Nicolas Aube-Kubel |
| Andrew Cogliano | Darren Helm | Logan O’Connor |
| Devon Toews | Cale Makar |
| Jack Johnson | Josh Manson |
| Bowen Byram | Erik Johnson |
| Darcy Kuemper |
| Pavel Francouz |
Injuries: Samuel Girard (sternum), Nazem Kadri (upper body)
Previous Meetings:
- October 23, 2021
- Colorado Avalanche (4) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3) – SO
- COL -110, TBL -110, O/U: 6.0 (-110/ -110)
- COL xG: 2.91, TBL xG: 2.82
- Vasilevskiy: -0.09 GSAx
- Darcy Kuemper: -0.18 GSAx
- Colorado Avalanche (4) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3) – SO
- December 18, 2021: Postponed
- February 10, 2022
- Tampa Bay Lightning (2) @ Colorado Avalanche (3)
- TBL -105, COL -115, O/U: 6.0 (-125/ +105)
- TBL xG: 3.17, COL xG: 2.91
- Vasilevskiy: -0.09 GSAx
- Darcy Kuemper: 1.17 GSAx
- Tampa Bay Lightning (2) @ Colorado Avalanche (3)
Series Odds:
- Tampa Bay Lightning (+155)
- Colorado Avalanche (-180)
Series Preview & Picks
The Avalanche come into the Stanley Cup as heavy favorites to knock off Tampa Bay, a feat that no team has accomplished in the past three post seasons. All season long, Colorado has been the Cup favorite to win and the odds reflect that here.
Tampa Bay on the other hand was an underdog just once this post season and that was in their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. In the Stanley Cup last year, they defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-1 and in the previous season they knocked off the Dallas Stars in 6 games.
For me, I like Colorado in this series just based off their talent but their goaltending is a major concern. Kuemper has had some injury woes in the post season and Francouz has been played well but nothing exceptional. Nazem Kadri status is still up in the air for if he’ll return but Colorado said they remain hopeful. He recorded his most points ever during the regular season and had 14 points in 13 playoff games. Without Kadri, the Avalanche still have a ton of talent as they have four skaters inside the top 10 in scoring this post season. Cale Makar has been exception in these playoffs as leads the team with 22 points. He’s one of the best defensemen the NHL has seen and his ability to generate offense is otherworldly.
The Lightning have the best goaltender in net over the course of the past three seasons in Andrei Vasilevskiy. When the playoffs start he elevates his game that makes him nearly impossible to beat. He did struggle at the start of the playoffs but since Game 6 of the first round, he’s been unbelievable. Bryaden Point has missed the majority of the post season and according to Jon Cooper,, he is “extremely probable” for Game 1. With the addition of Point the Lightning get one of their best players back.
This should be an incredible series that goes the distance. The Lightning struggled a bit out of the gate but have since been dominant. I think they’ll be the toughest challenge Colorado has faced all post season. We saw them take down the Avalanche in both regular season games and based off that, this series goes 6 or 7 games. They key for Tampa Bay this series will be their ability to limit Colorado offensively. They have the lowest goals against per game this post season and will need Andrei Vasilevskiy to continue his strong play. If Colorado is going to win, they’ll need to have some better goaltending whether from whoever is starting. While Francouz is 6-0, he’s been able to rely on the Avalanche’s ability to put the puck in the net. He has a 2.65 GAA with a save percentage below .900. These two teams play very different styles of hockey so it’ll be a great series to watch. If I had to pick a winner, I think Colorado ultimately gets it done. They’ve been bounced from the playoffs in the second round the past few seasons but this looks like a team on a mission that I’m not sure even the back to back Stanley Cup winners can stop.
- Series Total – 6 Games (+210) – 0.5 Units
- Series Total – 7 Games (+210) – 0.5 Units
BONUS – Conn Smythe Breakdown
The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the most valuable player of his team during the NHL Stanley Cup PLayoffs. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy won the award with a +26.6 GSAx during the playoffs. In 2020 season, Victor Hedman took home the hardware leading all defenseman in the post season with 22 points in 25 games. The last four seasons have featured a different Conn Smythe winner of different positions.
If you’re looking to place a future bet on the Conn Smythe, you’re also going to need to decide which team is going to win. The last player to win the Conn Smythe trophy in a losing effort was Jean Sebastian Giguere in 2003 with Anaheim. Besides J-S Giguere, only four other players have accomplished the same feat.
If you think Colorado is going to win, I would suggest backing the current favorite Cale Makar at +180. In the Western Conference Finals, he recorded 5 points in a single game which ranks 2nd all time in terms of most points by a defenseman in a single playoff game. Currently Makar has 22 points this post season which ranks 14th all time for most points by a defenseman in a single playoff year. If he was able to just get four more points in the Stanley Cup finals he would move up to third all time. Besides his offensive ability Makar has shown his defensive ability as well shutting down Connor McDavid last series. He’s only been on the ice for 14 goals against at even strength this post season. If he does win, he will become just the third defenseman in the last 10 years to win the Conn Smythe. If you’re looking for a Colorado player with larger odds, I think Mikko Rantanen has a shot at +1500.
If you think Tampa Bay is going to win, I would start with either Nikita Kucherov (+400) or Andrei Vasilevskiy (+400). As I mentioned earlier, Vasilevskiy won this award last year and would become the first goalie to win this award in back to back years since Bernie Parent in 1974-75 with the Philadelphia Flyers. The last player to win the Conn Smythe in back to back seasons was Sidney Crosby in 2016-17. Kucherov finished second in the 2021 Conn Smythe voting. His linemate Bryden Point went down in the first round but that hasn’t stopped his offensive production at all. Without Point, he has 15 points in the playoffs and has been a huge part of Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup run. If Tampa Bay does win their third straight we could see a scenario where voters award Kucherov the Conn Smythe even if Vasilevskiy is the MVP given the results last season. If you’re looking for a Tampa Bay player with larger odds, I think captain Steven Stamkos has a shot at +1500.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
