2023 NFL DRAFT STORYLINES

By Ron Marmalefsky – Follow on twitter @ronacesports

Last year brought us the best ever draft class in term of quantity, all thanks to the large number of post-Covid “Super Senior” eligible players.  2023 is still full of “overaged” players who had that extra year of eligibility, but those who stayed for a 6^th season this time around lack the same level of on-field credentials as compared to 2022.

SPECIAL NOTE: This is one of the deepest RB classes I’ve seen in at least a decade.  It’s not that much different at the top of the board, but I think we’ll see 10-12 starters (or shared workload starters) out of this group, and maybe more.  Other positions of depth include TE, edge rusher and to some extent, CB.  WR is way down this year, especially as compared to some incredible classes from the past several seasons.  I’m also not high on the OG group, traditional LB group and especially the safety group.

On to the draft.  Going in draft order, here’s where things stand with each team less than 72 hours before the draft, with my Intel and comments, plus some of my thoughts about later rounds and/or general draft thoughts.  As this draft looks to be a relatively highly volatile draft, expect some surprises.  Remember, we have plenty of new GM’s and coaches at the top of the board.  NOTE: Most of this report was written on Monday Night and Tuesday morning, with the Intel I had at the time. 

1. Carolina: The Panthers made the bold trade up for a QB and now it’s 99% clear who there are going to pick. Bryce Young is the most instinctive QB in this draft, and now just needs to prove that size does NOT matter.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Carolina has just five remaining picks, so we’ll see if they trade out of pick 39 or 93.  LB (Ojulari) or OL (Avila) are interesting targets, but the Panthers may be thinking TE in this spot.  There’s been no pattern to their “secret” visits and intentions thus far.

2. Houston: Good luck EVER thinking Houston will draft in a conventional manner. As noted in this report a year ago, my Intel showed them going after CB Stingley, which was accurate.  As of now, we’re looking at edge rusher (Anderson or Wilson) or QB (Stroud or Levis).  As of Monday night, let’s guess Levis or Wilson.  These are the riskier choices, right up their alley.

3. Arizona: Arizona will get two types of trade calls: Those looking for edge rusher, and those looking for a QB. I’ve heard reports of teams trading up for OT Paris Johnson, or even Arizona taking him.  If I’m Arizona, I reiterate that my BEST move is enticing Indy to move up one spot, therefore ensuring I get one of the top two edge rushers.  Tyree Wilson is now the betting favorite to go ahead of Will Anderson, but this team needs the safer player, which is Anderson.  If they trade further down, I think they reverse course and go OL in the 1^st  Nine of the 21 private visits I have confirmation on were for the OL, so the Cardinals appear serious about fixing this unit.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Keep in mind that we could see a trade of WR Hopkins and/or CB Budda Baker.  In addition to OL and DL, look for them to add RB and CB in this draft.

4. Indy: The Colts and GM Ballard have fallen off the draft map of late, so this draft needs to hit. Indy worked out seven QB’s, so it’s not a secret that the Colts are looking QB in this draft.  They’ve met with the top QB’s more than once, and attended all the workouts.  Is this Levis or Stroud?  Someone could leapfrog them to spoil their top choice.  My guess (not Intel) is that Indy wanted Levis, thinking Stroud may not be available, and now might be comfortable with either.  I’ll keep digging for the truth.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I lack Intel for pick 35, but CB needs to be in play.  I’d go CB here, and WR, perhaps Rashee Rice at pick 79.  Want some late round dart throws?   I’ve got four of them, from UAB, Houston, GT and Gardner Webb! 

5. Seattle: Seattle killed the draft in rare conventional form a year ago, and once again has two early picks in this draft. Another strong draft will give them long term stability.  QB is often mentioned here, or at pick 20, but I am not going that route.  I think they wouldn’t mind trading back a bit (Philly?) and getting an OLB/edge rusher later on if Wilson and Anderson are off the board.  The name Nolan Smith comes to mind.  Interior OL is a need but not at pick five?  Seattle typically is in deception mode heading into the draft, but I sense an urgency in looking edge rusher (or DT Carter?) based on my snooping around. 

6. Detroit: Like Seattle, Detroit has a golden opportunity, with five of the top 85 picks, including picks 6 and 18. They can seize control of a division in flux with a focused draft.  There are conflicting reports as to the fit of troubled DT Jalen Carter, but after all the outrage with players and front office staff suspended and/or fired for gambling on site, the better plan is to veer away from a guy whose work ethic and maturity is below what it should be.  They would love Will Anderson to drop to them, but if he doesn’t, at least one of the top two CB’s will be available.

7. Las Vegas: GM Ziegler flopped in his 1^st draft with the Raiders, but this year he has a full load of picks (12), whereas last year he used picks to acquire WR Adams. Vegas met with the top five QB’s, ignored the OL, and while they did show interest in a large number of CB’s, the ones they met with are not expected to go in the 1^st two rounds.  I’m missing some of their secret meetings, which limits my overall game plan for this team.  With Jimmy G here, why go QB?  With 12 picks, they won’t need to move down.  Do they take a chance on Jalen Carter?  This is VEGAS, and Carter playing in this city is a suspension waiting to happen.  I’ve heard they like CB Porter, but pick 7 seems high.  I’m comfortable with 12 picks becoming 8 or 9, but only if they draft rated players along the OL and throughout the defense.  Sadly, I lack current Intel for what they do with this pick.

8. Atlanta: I just don’t care! People say QB, DB, OL, etc, but until they draft multiple edge rushers the Falcons will continue to squander late leads, and continue to underachieve.  Guys they could look at to help the pass rush are Myles Murphy and Lukas Van Ness.  Sadly, they may look elsewhere early, and use pick 44 for someone like Derick Hall, who flashes some pass rush skill but has been stiff turning the corner.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Three things I think I’ve learned.  Atlanta is serious about adding a WR.  They’ll add at least one, and maybe a sleeper WR late.  2. Atlanta will add a safety in this draft.  Both Sydney Brown and Jamie Robinson are acceptable 3^rd round targets in my eyes.  3. Atlanta will ultimately disappoint me in this draft.  I want two PROVEN edge rushers.  I won’t get that, and if history repeats itself, we’ll see 2-3 wasted picks.

9. Chicago: We’re starting to learn about how GM Poles operates a draft room. Last year they turned five picks into 11, and this year they moved from pick #1 all the way down to this spot, securing extra early draft capital, plus a stout WR.  I’ve heard trades out of this pick as well, but with ten picks already, why do that?  My mantra with young QB’s is protect your investment.  To that end, I’d go get OT Johnson or OT/OG Skoronski here, but I can’t find evidence that the Bears have spoken to the Northwestern OL other than at his Pro Day.  Chicago would also be a contender to select Jalen Carter, but only if he drops to this spot.  CB is a need I’d also consider, but most of Chicago’s private visits in this area were with day three guys.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Last year I complemented the Bears on adding FOUR OL, but unfortunately, three were not NFL worthy.  That’s why the need remains.  With picks 53, 61 and 64, Chicago can add a 2^nd OL with ease.  In fact, my draft would be OL, DL, CB, OL, all by pick 64!  Dewand Jones is the only OL they’ve shown interest in who fits in the 53-64 draft range.  About a third of their private meetings have been with OL, but some of those meetings have been with players not of NFL caliber.

10. Philly: Philly owns picks 10 and 30, and it would shock me if they stayed at both spots. 1^st, they are famous for jumping over another team to take the player that team coveted (Baltimore last year for example).  2^nd, Philly has only six picks overall, and after pick 94, their only remaining picks are at 219 and 248.  Free agency saw Philly part with many a player, but that was expected.  OL and DL were the hardest hit, and now are the favorites to be addressed with their 1^st  I too believe OL or DL will be the play, with a trade up for Jalen Carter, or a stay in place for a top-level OL.  Philly has had private meetings with at least seven OL/DL who could be considered at this spot.  In addition, they are one of only two teams that RB Bijan Robinson met with.  There’s no right answer here, but at +190, DL seems like a bit of a value play.

11. Tennessee: I have lots of info about Tennessee, but still do not know what this 1^st year GM is planning to do. My needs for them are 2-3 OL, 2 WR’s, ILB and DL.  At one point the draft community was all abuzz about them moving up to pick #3, but for a new GM, that’s not typical.  They’ve lost more than they gained in free agency and only have six draft picks.  Both OL Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright are candidates to be selected with this pick.  Maybe they get lucky and draft a draft dropping WR in round two.  Expectations are that QB Tannehill and RB Henry will remain on the roster, but they could look to draft their replacements this year.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I have no specific Intel, but players they may look at in the 3^rd round are RB Spears and TE Tucker Kraft.  If I’m the GM, I target 3-4 players at picks 41 and 72, and if at least two remain on the board, then I trade DOWN, eventually turning six picks into eight.  Their past GM would not do it.  DRAFT NUGGET: The new GM went to the University of Florida and is a fan of the program.  Might a Florida player be drafted?  I say yes.

12. Houston: Past practice has been to trade UP (needlessly) from this spot. If they go for edge rusher early, then I could easily see a trade up to get one of the top QB’s, including Richardson from Florida.  If it’s not going to be a QB, my Intel has me thinking the following players, in this order: WR Smith-Njigba, edge rusher Murphy, or Safety Branch.  All this might be too “conventional” for this organization.  I think they put off the OL need until the 3^rd round, but I do think all these areas will be covered at some point in this draft.  Houston has 12 overall picks.  For teams like KC, GB in the past, and others, I’d turn 12 picks into eight, moving up for ready to go talent.  For Houston, I want all 12 picks, or at least 11.  Sadly, that may not happen.

13. Green Bay: The Packers looked at every position in preparation for this draft, which deviates from past practice. Based on my Intel, DE, WR and TE were the positions that stood out in their overall interest.  OT Darnell Wright is also a person of interest and could be their choice in this spot.  With now eleven picks after the Rodgers trade, we could see a trade up to get a specific player.  NOTE: The big trade included moving UP from 15 to 13 in the draft.  That still could mean OT Wright, who may not have been available at pick 15.  Wright is currently 4^th on my OL board.  I have EVERY private workout visitor for this team, and he’s the only one outside of a bevy of TE’s that would warrant such a high pick.  FYI, GB drafted six players who visited and had a private workout with the club a year ago.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I think they will draft a TE, and it might come after round one (or in a trade up, using picks from the 2^nd round).  I also think they add another WR.  At some point GB has to realize that the DL needs immediate attention.  They like to double up, and sometimes triple up in the draft at a position.  WR (2022), CB (twice) and even RB have seen multiple early targets.  I’d go DL twice early this year. 

14. New England: In 2022 the Patriots drafted OG Cole Strange in the 1^st Like with Bill Walsh in his later years, Belichick seems to want to prove that he’s smarter than everyone else.  What he got was a good player, but by taking him a round too early he lost the opportunity to add two good players.  While the Pats have failed to find WR’s in past drafts, they are doing due diligence in this area for 2023, with eight players receiving significant attention.  I think it’s wide open where they go with this pick, but I do not expect them to trade up in the draft, at least not here.  Past history suggests that they wait on WR, and go DL/OLB here, but my top two needs are WR and OG.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Here are the rules when trying to figure out New England’s draft process.  Look for deception, look for players who can fill multiple positions, study the combine cone scores, something Belichick covets, and expect late picks to include players who excelled in college playing special teams.  Interesting players they may consider later on include OL Cody Mauch and Tyler Steen (the Saban connection) and safety Jamie Robinson.

15. NYJ: QB Rodgers is now a Jet, but I’m not going to delve into my feelings about the trade, as that is for another time and place. What it does however, is squeeze the Jets down to just five picks in this draft, and might also affect what they are planning to do with this pick. Both GB and New England now move ahead of the Jets, and one or both could go OL with their selection. That might cause them to deviate from OL, one of the drawbacks to this seemingly short trade back.  Unfortunately, I have less Intel for this team than most, but am now thinking DL and even WR are in play with this pick.  REST OF THE DRAFT: The Jets are without a 3rd round pick.  I personally think they are targeting a center (John Michael Schmitz for sure, or possibly Joe Tippman).  One or both of these players could be available.  I’d go OL with one of the 1st two picks as it’s been a sore spot for the offense.  I’d also try to trade back in the draft and add an additional pick or two.

16. Washington: LOUD OFF THE FIELD, Washington has been very quiet on the field. Parts of this roster are playoff caliber, including their very stout defensive front seven and their WR depth.  What needs fixing would be QB, OL and DB.  Clearly, they agree with OL and DB, as 16 of their confirmed private workouts are for these two slots (LB has another four).  There’s only one safety (Branch) in my top 60 rankings, so that would be interesting.  I think DB is more likely than OL at this point. REST OF THE DRAFT: Do you want to become relevant?  Offer Lamar Jackson a contract of $250 million for five years, with $200 Million guaranteed (that 80% tops all other contracts by over 10% except for one, QB Watson).  Make Baltimore match the offer (the two 1^st round picks and the $$$).  The offense can win now with Lamar and a day two TE.  The defense can add 2-3 DB’s in this draft, with volume the key.  Back to reality.  I expect this team to go OL and DB in this draft, meeting my need board, while also adding a day three LB, of which I have three specific names.  QB?  If Matt Ryan is willing to mentor Sam Howell, maybe.  Otherwise, I’m not sure what transpires here, but they may be comfortable with Brissett and Howell.

17. Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has misfired on many day one and day two DB’s in the draft, having far more luck in the trade and free agency market, but this is the position I strongly suggest they target with this pick. Transparent as always (the NFL draft community thanks you), Pitt has shown interest in quite a few positions in this draft, led by OL, DT and CB.  Their most public OL interest will be gone by pick 17.  Do they pull the trigger on CB Banks or CB Porter?  That would be the way I’d go.  Pitt has shown “extra” interest in CB Ringo (Georgia), who is lower on my list.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Thanks to the great trade with Chicago (WR Claypool), the Steelers own the top pick in the 2^nd round (32).  They could trade back, as several teams like to reach out to grab that initial day two pick.  A small trade back can still net them an impact center.  If they stay, look for a possible DT selection, or certainly a CB if they went elsewhere at pick 17.  There’s no question Pitt will add a (quality) WR to the mix, as no team is better at drafting wideouts.  Names of “interest” include WR’s Tillman, Mingo, and Charlie Jones.

18. Detroit: For the 2^nd year in a row the Lions have a pair of day one picks. They will have some interesting choices to make here.  If they went CB at 6, do they go edge, safety or TE?  Some are even speculating RB.  One exciting fit for me is safety Brian Branch, which would help this team limit splash plays.  Then there’s the position of TE, which was left barren with the in-season trade last year.  One thing I’m thankful for is that Detroit is showing little interest in WR.  It’s a need (5^th on my list), but this draft crop cries day three, even with the six-game suspension of Jamison Williams.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I EXPECT the Lions to turn their five early picks (6 through 85) into three or four picks, which bothers me.  I’d like to see them address TE with one of their two 2^nd round picks.  If they don’t go CB in round one, maybe they trade up for CB Forbes or wait for small, but highly instinctive CB Clark Phillips (Utah), who excelled with smoothness at the combine, which matched his game tape.  Sadly, he lacks a Detroit Lion “profile”.  Late round dart throws might include TE Barker, DE Desjuan Johnson, or CB Jatavius Martin.  One more thing.  Last year I was ecstatic when they drafted LB Rodriquez, a perfect fit for them.  Ferris State edge rusher Caleb Murphy is my perfect fit choice this year.  Can he play?  40 sacks over the past two seasons, and a willingness to get even better says yes.

19. Tampa: As I write this, Tampa Bay fans need to be worried. The NFC South is in transition, but the Bucs are trending down.  Draft grades have gone south, but with roster (re)building necessary, this has to be a focused effort.  Baker Mayfield is here, but I wouldn’t rule out QB just yet, depending on how the board shakes out.  Two positions stand out as being targets for this pick.  The 1^st one is DE, with Tampa aging in this area and still not certain to sign all of their current free agents.  The 2^nd is RB, and I say this because Tampa has spent more time vetting this position than expected.  With this being a solid RB crop, yes, go get one, but not at pick 19.  I know they like Nolan Smith, but his stock has risen significantly, and he’s likely out of the picture.  This isn’t an easy call, as by 19, the top OL will be gone and the safety class is weak.  I think we may end up with youth at edge/OLB or even a WR.  At this time, I do not have a targeted player in mind.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I fully expect Tampa to address their OL, add a solid RB, and yes, add 1-2 WR’s.  I’d love to see safety Sydney Brown drafted by this team.

20. Seattle: With ten draft picks, including five of the top 83, there’s no reason to get cute and trade picks. If they went edge at six, they should come back here with OL or DB.  If they went CB at six, then OL or edge/DT is the play.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Seattle more than kicked the tires on safety, so I look for one to be added.  I wouldn’t be surprised with two DL in the top 85 picks as well.  My five picks in the 1^st three rounds are edge, DB, 2 OL and DT.  Adding a day three WR also makes sense.  There’s no real connection, but I expect a pick of a DB from THE Oregon State.  The profile fits (insert smile). 

21. LAC: Famous for letting the draft come to them, the Chargers have reeled in amazing 1^st round talent over the past several seasons. Someone will drop in this draft, and LA typically takes that player.  While I’d love to see Zay Flowers opposite their existing WR’s, LA tends to draft differently at this position, putting someone like Jordan Addison in play.  Bigger needs on my board are run stopper, edge rusher, replacement talent in the secondary, and a left guard.  So, who slips to pick 21?  Because this is a strange draft, one without surefire middle of round one talent, beauty will be in the eyes of the beholder.  I’ll lean DB here, but I usually have no read on what this team will do except for the draft-dropper angle.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I have them selecting a couple of off the wall players, one at LB and one at CB.  I’m also curious as to what they will do at a) TE, where impact talent is available on day two, and b) RB, where they have plodder Isaiah Spiller (4.63 40) and Austin Ekeler, who is on the last year of his contract and wants to be traded.  In the end, I think LA spreads out its seven selections.

22. Baltimore: Like the Chargers, Baltimore is the other example of a team that historically just lets the draft board come to them. I FULLY expect Baltimore to trade out of this spot, as they have a very rare minimal draft capital of five picks, which includes no 2^nd round selection.  If multiple players remain on their board before this pick, they will trade back.  Based on Intel, CB is a high priority for them.  WR remains a need even with the Beckham signing, and yes, they could go with one in this range or with a trade down if they feel like the CB board is not to their liking.  My other needs are DE and OG, but as of this writing I’m honing in on CB 1^st, and WR 2^nd as their initial pick.  REST OF THE DRAFT: The only thing I will predict at this time is making five picks become six or seven.  In this relatively average draft, I think two trade downs are quite possible.

23. Minnesota: The Kurt Cousins era is coming to a close, perhaps as soon as 2024. Drafting a QB is as high as +650, and maybe they would consider Hendon Hooker.  I’m short about five of their “secret” visits, and Hooker has not been in the building.  Minny has made no secret of the fact that they’d like to add a WR, and it could be at this pick, or a bit later with someone such as Trey Palmer.  In his 1^st year as GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah traded up, down and sideways, much like their previous GM.  That just confuses things.  Minny, like Baltimore before them, has but five picks, and no pick in the 2^nd  They traded back from 12 to 32 a year ago, so another trade back is possible, but all these teams in the twenties need to find a trading partner.  Maybe if CB Banks is available (draft prop 21.5) they stay and take him.  I’m getting the feeling that we’ll see a curveball from the Vikings, one way or another, here, and maybe even later in the draft.

24. Jacksonville: Let’s get this out of the way 1^st. I’m NOT a fan of GM Trent Baalke.  In the deepest draft ever, Trent turned 12 picks, many of them at the top of each round, into seven.  Luckily for the Jags, they broke the spending record in free agency, adding plenty of talent, and also found themselves a real NFL coach.  Now the job gets tougher.  OL is my biggest need for the Jags but all they’ve done right now is met with a few day-three guys.  I expect most of the top OL will be gone by pick 24, so they probably look elsewhere, perhaps CB or DE.  That’s where they’ve done their homework, and it fits with what sportsbooks think will be their focus.  IF (a big if) they stay with picks 24, 56 and 86, I expect to see CB, DE and OL picks.  My best guess is that Baalke gets trigger-happy and moves up, either here or in round two.  I have no Intel as of this moment as to any specific players they may be targeting, but I’ll keep digging.

25. NYG: Optimism abounds with the NYG, and why not, off a playoff win, a top tier draft, and this draft, with ten more picks, including four of the top 100. With that being said, the NYG still need work along the OL (Daniel Jones has a slow internal clock), and in my opinion, got by with smoke and mirrors, plus great coaching with the players they had at CB and safety.  That, and finding a WR1 is really all I want from them early in this draft.  They met with four of my top five WR’s, so that’s a start.  Based on the odds shift, we will see at least one, and maybe two or three of these guys still on the board.  Maybe that’s their focus, as they met with day two centers (no guards) and no safeties.  Late, last minute meetings were held with several CB’s, perhaps another telling sign.  I think this pick is for a CB or WR.  REST OF THE DRAFT: The interior OL is my #1 need but I understand not going in that direction with pick 25.  Another batch of late, private meetings and workouts were held with some solid day two DE’s.  I trust this 2^nd year draft team far more than the previous regime, but when the dust settles, I do hope they find some quality OL to help solidify pass protection, while also opening larger run holes.

26. Dallas: If this wasn’t the passive Jerry Jones (massive inactivity in the draft, when the opportunity existed to get someone both highly ranked and meeting a key need), I’d have them squarely in line to trade UP to get stud RB Bijan Robinson. As it stands, I think Robinson is special, but can’t find that early top 15 draft team where he fits the best.  Like with the NYG, I have massive amounts of information, so it’s just a matter of mind-melding with Jerry Jones, and that’s going to hurt my head.  Even if it’s not Robinson, Dallas, who has OPENLY stated they want to have more of a run game approach, has only an injured Tony Pollard as a viable starter at this position.  Dallas did NOT meet with my 2^nd rated RB (Gibbs, Alabama), but that does not mean they won’t draft him.  1^st, Gibbs was not a regular on the private meeting circuit, and 2^nd, teams always draft players that they do not meet with.  What’s a bit strange about Dallas this draft season is that, while TE is a need, they did not meet with the top two guys, and instead met with five other TE’s.  LB and OL are my other areas of need, but traditional LB’s are not expected to be chosen on day one, and we don’t know if there will be any round one OL talent remaining by pick 26.  Dallas met with eight DL and an amazing number of the top rated WR’s.  I think they would prefer to draft OL here, but when a team drafts this late it is hard to predict what’s going to be fair value at such a position of importance.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I’m trying to read their intentions and based on what I have, I don’t think they go TE 1^st (the betting favorite) unless the board forces them to.  I DO expect a day two TE.  If I’m Dallas, I defer WR as well, perhaps going for camera ready Rashee Rice (Jonathan Mingo is a name on their radar screen).  Based on volume, DE will also be a day two target, if not even sooner.  SIDE NOTE: Teams have differing philosophies related to usage of their allotted private meetings.  Many teams use it to ease character or injury concerns.  Some go top-heavy on critical positions.  Half the group or more spread-out meetings to cover players available throughout the draft (drafting wisely on day three matters).  Dallas is usually top-heavy, meaning they look at only a handful of day three options.  Based on recent draft grades, that has not always worked out well.

27. Buffalo: I like how Buffalo addressed the early part of last year’s draft. With just six picks in this draft, that same focus is necessary, plus some better talent evaluation late would be nice.  DL is the betting favorite, which makes some sense, at least from a run-stopping standpoint.  I actually have only one other important need for this team, that being MLB, which can be addressed on day two.  Based on tea leaves (and of course snooping around) the Bills are not very interested in LB and instead are looking closely at WR, safety and OL, plus they had a late push in meeting with a few TE’s.  I definitely think they are in the WR market, either here or by trade (Hopkins?).  I understand OL, as there were times that Josh Allen had extra pressure on him.  DT looks like a day three focus only.  WR is +390.  LB is +250, but that position is never a wise investment as a 1^st  DL is actually the favorite.  I think the value is WR or OL (as much as +460).  REST OF THE DRAFT: “Interesting” names for day two include UCLA RB Charbonnet, and Iowa St edge rusher Will McDonald.  

28. Cincinnati: Cincy has a more than solid draft day track record, and is one of the more focused teams during the draft. That’s doubly important when drafting this late.  TE and CB are the betting favorites.  Cincy met with the top two TE’s, but as a team that seldom trades on draft day, it’s possible both will be gone by this pick.  I’m unusually short on draft Intel here, which is rare.  What I do know is that they have a strong interest in CB Emmanuel Forbes (Miss St).  He’s my #5 CB, and has a draft slot that straddles the 1^st-2^nd rounds (28-35).  I’d say this is for Forbes or a TE, with RB Gibbs a longshot “suggestion” as a 3^rd choice (no known contact).  REST OF THE DRAFT: GM Duke Tobin prefers a best player available approach, but past history strongly suggests this is tied to top two or three positional needs.  If I’m Cincy I get a RB in this deep draft (maybe at pick 92) and let Joe Mixon walk.  Therefore, CB/TE/RB might be my 1^st three looks.  Without full Intel, I don’t know their full intentions, but they HAVE to draft at least one viable OL, plus look at safety if possible.  Late, “strange” names that might show up in camp include LB Jaylen Moody, Safety Kendall Williamson, WR Josh Vann, and/or Harvard DE Truman Jones.

29. New Orleans: New Orleans is famous for trading UP on draft day, as well as averaging about five picks per draft season. It’s enormously agonizing to watch this franchise continue to devalue the draft.  This approach backfires 90-95% of the time, but it worked here because a) Sean Payton was a top five coach, and b) most of their early round picks have been stout.  DL is the heavy favorite, with OL considered the only other choice not priced at +800.  I show DT as far an away their biggest need, but I don’t see them going that route.  I EXPECT another trade, and certainly Baltimore and Minnesota (22 and 23) would be wise to accommodate, considering these teams lack a 2^nd round selection.  I think the Saints may want to go even higher, so could be see pick 15 (JETS) involved, especially if the miss out on a top four OL?  What targets could they be looking at?  I’m speculating CB (Gonzalez if he drops, or Porter), edge (Murphy), OT (Wright) and WR (Smith-Njigba).  CB has been heavily researched.  REST OF THE DRAFT: The Saints have eight picks, but I would be SHOCKED if they drafted more than six players.  I have a hunch they go RB somewhere in rounds 2-4, with Kamara still facing suspension down the road.  As an aside, they are very likely to add a QB in this draft.

30. Philly: As said earlier, the Eagles are likely not sticking with picks 10 and/or 30. I’d trade OUT of round one with this pick, and that should be doable as many a team (Minny or New Orleans for example) are historical candidates to make this move.  I could add a few more teams to the mix as well, including the Lions.  Whichever direction Philly trades I do think OL and DL will be positions of major interest.  While safety is my biggest need, the Eagles are mainly looking CB.  I’m not opposed to teams drafting a CB and converting them to safety (or the easier transition of nickelback).  As an aside, the Intel I’m getting is that Philly will make this a “big school” draft, focusing primarily on major NCAA programs.  Let’s see if that’s correct.

31. Kansas City: KC’s staying power at the top of the NFL is not just Mahomes and Andy Reid, but an incredible vision as to what wins in the NFL. They drafted fast on offense AND defense before it became popular, and turned a suspect OL into a top three unit with astute drafting, uncovering three absolute gems.  My needs are WR, pass rusher and run stopper.  That’s it.  My Intel shows KC looking hard at WR and DE, while also paying very close attention to OT.  Zay Flowers famously was called in by Pat Mahomes for a late workout.  Adding him to the roster would be stealing.  The DE’s they’ve met with are more like day three targets.  I like the fit of DT Mazi Smith to this team, although he carries a 2^nd round grade.  With ten picks, they could easily go up and get someone, as there are not ten spots left on this roster.  My uneducated guess for KC is they may go up to get a draft dropping edge rusher or OL, or stick around and add WR to the mix.  REST OF THE DRAFT: It’s clear to me at least one WR will be added, which I fully endorse.  They will add DE, but hopefully it will be someone highly rated.  I’m fairly confident that selected player will show speed.  It also looks like OT will be part of the plan.  OLB Jeremy Banks carries plenty off off-field baggage, but this is my off-the-wall day three stab for KC, who has made this type of pick in the past.

Late news on teams outside of the 1^st round.

AMAZING TIDBIT: All five teams listed below did not have a 1^st round pick in 2022.

LA Rams (pick 36): This is actually EARLY for LA to be on the draft board.  I hate trying to guess what they will do because a) I usually lack Intel, as they are very secretive, and b) they are not all that predictable, or efficient in the draft.  They have more needs than almost any other team right now, with a few top tier players and the rest of the roster more bargain basement types.  I’ll guess OL for now, with DB or LB (especially if all the top LB’s are still on the board) also in play.

Miami (pick 51): Thanks to their owner, Miami forfeited the 21^st pick in the draft (tampering).  That robs them of the opportunity to add a quality OL or a front seven defensive disruptor.  Miami is one of four teams that I have very low Intel on.  I’ve heard that they may switch to a 3-4 alignment, which new coordinator Vic Fangio prefers.  The one position I DO know that Miami has thoroughly investigated is RB.  I like the fits for the guys that I’ve uncovered (Tulane RB Prince, Pitt RB Abanikanda), and I’ve even heard they have looked at slow, but productive RB Kenny McIntosh (Georgia) who offers enormous 3^rd down pass-catching value.  As for the 3-4, a late look could be 3-4 DE Shakel Brown (Troy), and DE Leo (Wagner).  It’s all very speculative on my part for this team, who I do think might add another TE as well.  I don’t know what’s in store at this pick, but I’d target OL.

Denver (picks 67 and 68, 3^rd round): Denver was in this same arena a year ago, with one pick in this round, and two more in the 3^rd round.  They went LB 1^st, followed by TE and CB.  I still show LB as their #1 need, followed by DE and OG.  The 2022 draft was a disappointment.  Sean Payton is here, and I suspect he’ll have GM George Paton’s ear all throughout the draft.  Denver only has five picks, so it “seems” that they won’t go the New Orleans route of trading up multiple times.  I’m not sure at all what they will do, but I wouldn’t rule out TE.  Denver has not featured any one position in the pre-draft process.  For a late pick, how about CB Isaiah Bolden, who moonlights as a premier kick returner, his likely role if he makes it in the NFL.

Cleveland (picks 74 and 98, 3^rd round): Cleveland underachieved last year and it wasn’t just because of QB play.  The defense let them down.  I thought coming into 2022 the roster was fairly deep, but LB was a need.  Cleveland did not draft a LB in 2022 and I list that once again as my #1 area of need.  I’d like them to target OG as well, but the two players they’ve spent time with are OT’s (Tyler Steen, Dawand Jones, both quality day two guys).  Then again, I have only modest Intel for Cleveland.  The late positions of interest (meetings at the deadline) were with TE’s and WR’s.  DE Mike Morris is an “interesting” potential later target.  CB Tre Hawkins (Old Dominion) was a late study by me (I have 460 players that I took at least a casual glance at).  He ran a 4:40 at his Pro Day, showing quick speed and strong change of direction skills.  He had 133 tackles these past two years.  Yes, he probably won’t end up here, but Cleveland is interested.  I hope they go LB 1^st, but don’t be surprised if they go WR with one of these picks (I have a trio of targets in mind, including Nathaniel Dell from Houston).

San Francisco (picks 99, 101, and 102, 3^rd round): Thanks to a whopping SEVEN compensatory picks, SF has eleven overall selections, including these three.  Their 1^st “regular” pick would have been at 154.  DB is an absolute crying area of need, with OL and LB next on my board.  Unlike almost every other NFL team, SF has not spent time with any highly rated prospects.  For a team that does tend to draft a few players from private workouts and meetings, this could be quite muddled.  In fact, SF drafted six prospects they met with last year.  The “highest” rated player they have met with that I know of is safety Ji’Ayir Brown (Penn St), who shows up as the 69^th to 106^th overall prospect from five different sources.  For these three picks I think at least one DB will be added, along with an OL.  SF is almost certain to add a TE as well, but that may come on day three.

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