2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Austin Eckroat backers at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches last week! After 50 starts on the PGA Tour, Eckroat was finally able to capture his first PGA Tour title.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The Arnold Palmer Invitational marks the fourth signature event of the season, boasting a select field of just 69 players.

Kurt Kitayama aims to retain his title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after securing victory in last year’s event, making a remarkable debut at Bay Hill. His performance in the 2024 season has been steady, with consistent finishes inside the top 40 in each of his initial five events.

David Ford, a junior representing the University of North Carolina, secured his spot in the field by clinching victory in a vote among his peers at the 2023 Palmer Cup. Ford, who earned recognition as the 2023 Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year and a first-team All-American, contributed to the victorious USA team at the Palmer Cup. Since 2017, the winning team has bestowed a vote to determine one individual who receives an exemption into the Arnold Palmer Invitational – previous recipients include Åberg and Collin Morikawa. This will mark Ford’s third appearance on the PGA TOUR. Ranked third in the World Amateur Golf Ranking, Ford participated in The RSM Classic in November alongside his twin brother, Maxwell.

Scottie Scheffler’s struggles with putting have been widely discussed throughout his career, and this season, they seem to have become even more pronounced. However, this week, Scheffler has taken steps to address the issue. He has opted for a new spider mallet putter, which is half an inch longer than his previous one. Additionally, he has eliminated the alignment line on his ball to streamline his alignment process.

Scottie Scheffler putting changes at API:

• New spider mallet putter
• Half inch of length added to putter
• Line removed from golf ball to simplify alignment

Via @ToddLewisGC.

— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) March 5, 2024

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 7th, 2024 – March 10th 2024
• Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
• Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Course Type: Florida
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,466 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
• Fairways: Perennial rye overseed .375”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 3”
• Bunkers: 84
• Water Hazard(s): 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000/$4,000,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field: 70 Players
• Cut: Top 50 & Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 72.66 (+0.66), Rank 10 of 49
  • 2022: 73.89 (+1.89), Rank 4 of 50
  • 2021: 73.02 (+1.02), Rank 9 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: +3
  • 2022: +3
  • 2021: +2

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Designer Link (Arnold Palmer (2009)):
  • TPC Twin Cities – Arnold Palmer (2000) – 3M Open

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, March 7th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 2: Friday, March 8th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 3: Saturday, March 9th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 12:30 PM
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
  • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 4: Sunday, March 10th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 12:30 PM
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
  • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 84 F, 6 mp/h NNW, 66% Humidity, 17% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Cloudy 84 F, 10 mp/h ESE, 67% Humidity, 11% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 87 F, 14 mp/h SSW, 65% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Showers 78 F, 15 mp/h WSW, 75% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Established in 1979 as a successor to the Florida Citrus Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has undergone several name changes but has been known by its current name since 2007. MasterCard assumed the role of the main sponsor in 2004 and has maintained this partnership ever since.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge has been the esteemed host of this event since its inception. Arnold Palmer acquired the club in 1970 and spearheaded a comprehensive renovation of the course in 2009. This renovation encompassed a complete overhaul of all 18 greens, extensive reworking of most bunkers, and the addition of yardage, resulting in a change in Par from 71 to 72. Renowned for its challenging layout, Bay Hill consistently attracts a formidable field of competitors on the Tour.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 8, Tiger Woods (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Payne Stewart (1987)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 62, Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984), Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, Bay Hill Club and Lodge boasts a traditional Par 72 layout comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

Spanning a formidable 7,466 yards, Bay Hill ranks among the PGA Tour’s lengthiest courses. While distance is advantageous, precision off the tee is equally essential, with the penal 3-inch ryegrass rough demanding accuracy. The course features narrow fairways, emphasizing the significance of proficient tee shots for contenders. With an ample average green size of 7,500 square feet, the course offers a fair challenge. However, in the past, holding greens has proven challenging, primarily due to approach shots often exceeding 200 yards. This year, the greens are expected to be more receptive, benefiting from recent rainfall.

Bay Hill presents an array of hazards, including 84 bunkers, placing it 11th on the list of courses with the most bunkers players will encounter this year. Additionally, water comes into play on nine holes, ranking it ninth in water hazards on the PGA Tour. Furthermore, the forecast predicts significant wind, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, adding an extra layer of difficulty. With previous scoring averages indicating its challenging nature, Bay Hill stands as one of the toughest courses players will encounter all season.

The four Par 3’s range between 199 yards and 231 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 200 – 225 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 2, 231 yards, Par 3: From the tee the second hole appears long and demanding. It is. #2 is 231 yards from the Palmer tees. A smart shot is to favor the right side of the green. If you want you can let the slope help you onto the green. Missing the green left leaves you with a challenging up and down. Once you are on the green you must negotiate a green that tilts right to left.

No. 17, 221 yards, Par 3: The 17th hole is a par 3 that measures 221 yards from the Palmer tees. The putting surface has the beach bunker short of the green. In addition there are bunkers left and long left of the green. In front and wrapping around the right of the green there is water. A tee shot that finds the green is well played and increases your chances for a par.

There are ten Par 4’s at Bay Hill with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 13 is the shortest listed at 382 yards with the longest being No. 9, playing 480 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 9 (+0.384).

No. 3, 434 yards, Par 4: Hole #3 is an attractive par 4 that measures 434 yards from the Palmer tees. Finding the fairway off the tee is the first step to securing a par. There is a lake to the left of the fairway and to the right is thick rough. The green is guarded by water left and bunkers left, right and long. Two accurate shots could offer you a reasonable chance for birdie.

No. 18, 458 yards, Par 4: The 72nd hole of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard, the 18th hole is a par 4 458 yards from the Palmer tees. There is OB along the entire left side of this demanding par 4. To the right of the driving area is thick rough. Ideally, the tee shot should be played left of center. From the left side of the fairway you have options depending on the hole location. If your tee shot finds the rough the smart play is to play towards the left front of the green. If you choose to play aggressive there are bunkers left and long. If you have ever watched the Arnold Palmer Invitational you already knew about the pond guarding the front of the putting surface.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 4, No. 6, No. 12, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.559.

No. 4, 561 yards, Par 5: The fourth hole is a par 5 that measures 561 yards from the Palmer tees. It plays uphill with a creek and OB running along the right side of the hole. It is reachable in two for the longest hitters. Avoid the bunker on the left side of the fairway if you choose to lay up. Regardless of whether you go for the green in two or not the left side of the green is shallow in depth. A miss to the right of the green drops off sharply leaving a difficult up and down. Accuracy is a must into this elevated target if you expect a par or better.

No. 6, 555 yards, Par 5: The 6th hole at Bay Hill is one of the most recognizable holes on the course. It is a par 5 that measures 555 yards from the Palmer tees. With three aggressive swings at conservative targets a birdie opportunity awaits. An overly aggressive swing at an aggressive target could lead to double digits. From the tee you should aim towards the fairway bunkers. If you are playing your second shot from the fairway aim towards the bunker on the right side of the fairway. The green is deep so double check your yardage for your third shot. A par or better is within reach.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.68	277.73
Driving Accuracy	62%	64%
GIR Percentage	66%	60%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.17	30.50
Scrambling Percentage	58%	58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.57

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +22.88, Per Round: +0.95)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +17.16, Per Round: +0.72)
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +15.02, Per Round: +0.63)
    • Min Woo Lee (Total: +14.42, Per Round: +0.60)
    • Cameron Young (Total: +14.33, Per Round: +0.60)

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Four of the past five winners ranked 9th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +27.32, Per Round: +1.14)
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +24.02, Per Round: +1.00)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +19.47, Per Round: +0.81)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +18.06, Per Round: +0.75)
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Total: +16.81, Per Round: +0.70)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes at PGA National are TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Andrew Putnam (Total: +18.06, Per Round: +0.75)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +16.96, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Jordan Spieth (Total: +16.96, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Total: +16.72, Per Round: +0.70)
    • Brian Harman (Total: +15.36, Per Round: +0.64)

 

• 3 Putt Avoidance
  • This week, players must strive to eliminate any instances of three-putts, as they often result in bogeys or worse. Maintaining a clean scorecard will be paramount for success.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Brian Harman (Total: +9.02, Per Round: +0.38)
    • Cameron Davis (Total: +7.62, Per Round: +0.32)
    • Mackenzie Hughes (Total: +7.18, Per Round: +0.30)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +6.44, Per Round: +0.27)
    • Jordan Spieth (Total: +6.18, Per Round: +0.26)

 

• Driving Distance
  • Bay Hill Club and Lodge is listed at 7,466 yards making it one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour.
  • Leaders in this category in the 2024 Season:
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Stephan Jaeger
    • Jake Knapp
    • Min Woo Lee
    • Byeong Hun An

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at Bay Hill range between 200-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Ludvig Aberg (Total: +6.21, Per Round: +0.26)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +5.65, Per Round: +0.24)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +5.48, Per Round: +0.23)
    • Justin Lower (Total: +5.18, Per Round: +0.22)
    • Luke List (Total: +4.93, Per Round: +0.21)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the ten Par 4’s at Bay Hill range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +27.17, Per Round: +1.13)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (Total: +18.81, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +18.67, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Patrick Cantlay (Total: +15.45, Per Round: +0.64)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +14.24, Per Round: +0.59)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
  • Three of the four Par 5’s at Bay Hill range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Grayson Murray (Total: +10.50, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Mark Hubbard (Total: +9.55, Per Round: +0.40)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +9.25, Per Round: +0.39)
    • Sam Burns (Total: +8.74, Per Round: +0.36)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +8.71, Per Round: +0.36)

 

• Proximity Gained: 200-225 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200-225 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 200+ yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +750.70, Per Round: +31.28)
    • Corey Conners (Total: +628.40, Per Round: +26.18)
    • Luke List (Total: +592.10, Per Round: +24.67)
    • Cameron Davis (Total: +390.91, Per Round: +16.29)
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +373.02, Per Round: +15.54)

 

• Bogey Avoidance Gained
  • Bay Hill ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Sam Burns (Total: +23.23, Per Round: +0.97)
    • Collin Morikawa (Total: +17.85, Per Round: +0.74)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +17.55, Per Round: +0.73)
    • Kurt Kitayama (Total: +15.29, Per Round: +0.64)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +14.23, Per Round: +0.59)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at Bay Hill.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Rory McIlroy (2 Events – 70.28 Scoring Average)
    • Jordan Spieth (2 Events – 70.38 Scoring Average)
    • Emiliano Grillo (6 Events – 71.00 Scoring Average)
    • Justin Thomas (2 Events – 71.13 Scoring Average)
    • Jason Day (10 Events – 71.23 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 69 players competing in this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Forty-four of the top fifty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+600) has maintained his strong performance in 2024, securing top-10 finishes in four out of his first five starts this season. The sole exception was at The American Express, where he placed T17. He is set to make his fourth appearance at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. In his previous three outings, Scheffler achieved a T15 finish in 2022, claimed victory in 2022, and secured a T4 finish last year.

Rory McIlroy (+900) concluded with a T21 finish at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches last week. In his two previous starts on the PGA Tour this season, he secured a T24 finish at The Genesis Invitational and a T66 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. McIlroy boasts an impressive track record at Arnold’s Place, having won this event in 2018. Over his nine prior appearances at Bay Hill, he has landed inside the top 15 seven times. The sole exception was in 2016 when he finished T27.

Viktor Hovland (+1200) has experienced a subdued beginning to the 2024 season following his victory at the TOUR Championship last year. His debut event of the year saw him secure a T22 finish at The Sentry. Subsequently, he concluded with a T58 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his most recent outing, he attained a T19 finish at The Genesis Invitational. This week marks Hovland’s sixth appearance at Bay Hill. Notably, he has delivered impressive performances at this course over the past two years, achieving a T2 finish in 2022 and a T10 finish in 2023.

Xander Schauffle (+1200) has kicked off the 2024 season impressively, securing top-10 finishes in four out of his first five starts. Notably, he achieved a T4 finish at The Genesis Invitational in his most recent outing. Despite his consistent top-10 performances, Xander has yet to secure a victory since the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. This week marks his third appearance at Bay Hill, having attained a T24 finish in 2020 and a T39 finish in 2023.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400) is set to make his second appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Last year, he secured a T4 finish. This event marks his sixth appearance in the 2024 PGA Tour season, with three top-15 finishes in his previous five starts. Cantlay enters this tournament in solid form, having concluded with a T11 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and, most recently, a T4 finish at The Genesis Invitational.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Kurt Kitayama (’23), Scottie Scheffler (’22), Rory McIlroy (’18), Jason Day (’16)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Austin Eckroat, David Ford, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Sami Valimaki

• Players with Florida ties in the Field:

• • College:
    • Eric Cole – Nova Southeastern University

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Thomas Detry -> IN: Austin Eckroat (Aon Next 10)
  • OUT: Mark Hubbard -> IN: Min Woo Lee (Aon Swing 5)
  • OUT: Robert MacIntyre -> IN: Erik van Rooyen (Aon Next 10)

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 277.5/ -10.5 (-110/-110) – SportsBook

In the last two editions of the Bay Hill Invitational, the winning score has surpassed 277.5 (-10.5). However, examining the ten preceding editions of this event, the winning score fell below 277.5 nine times.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

			Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational
			Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Rory McIlroy	9	70.28	T2	T13	T10	T5	T6
Jordan Spieth	2	70.38	T4	–	T4	–	–
Scottie Scheffler	3	71.25	T4	1	–	T15	–
Sungjae Im	5	71.40	T21	T20	T21	3	T3
Matthew Fitzpatrick	9	71.50	T14	T9	T10	T9	2
Cameron Young	2	71.5	T10	T13	–	–	–
Keegan Bradley	12	71.52	T10	T11	T10	T42	T46
Max Homa	4	72.00	T14	T17	T10	T24	–
Chris Kirk	11	71.71	T39	T5	T8	–	T15

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational
			Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge	Bay Hill Club & Lodge
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Sepp Straka	4	74.75	MC	MC	MC	MC	–
Cameron Davis	3	74.33	MC	MC	MC	–	–
C.T. Pan	5	73.21	–	–	MC	MC	MC
Lee Hodges	2	75.75	MC	MC	–	–	–
J.T. Poston	3	74.88	–	–	MC	MC	T66
Shane Lowry	5	73.58	67	–	MC	–	MC
Seamus Powers	2	75.33	72	MC	–	–	–

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
  • Price: 200-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Kurt Kitayama	42nd	14th	18th	18th	2nd

 

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
  • Price: 16-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler	48th	8th	1st	28th	17th

 

• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
  • Price: 12-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Bryson Dechambeau	1st	2nd	9th	30th	21st

 

• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
  • Price: 55-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Tyrrell Hatton	24th	5th	2nd	27th	15th

 

• 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
  • Price: 33-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Francesco Molinari	1st	13th	34th	44th	4th

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Kurt Kitayama
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T23 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T29 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T73 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler
  • T7 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • WON – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T25 – The American Express (PGA)
  • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)

• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau
  • T22 – WGC-Workday Championship (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T18 – Saudi International (DPWT)
  • T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T34 – The Masters (MAJ)

• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton
  • T6 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • T14 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
  • T6 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • 46 – DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (DPWT)
  • WON – Turkish Airlines Open (DPWT)

• 2019: Francesco Molinari
  • T17 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • T27 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T43 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
  • T26 – DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (DPWT)
  • T56 – Sky Sports British Masters (DPWT)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Kurt Kitayama

• Tournament Debut

 

2022: Scottie Scheffler

	2020
Scottie Scheffler	T15

 

2021: Bryson Dechambeau

	2020	2019	2018	2016
Bryson Dechambeau	4	T46	2	T27

 

2020: Tyrrell Hatton

	2019	2018	2017
Tyrrell Hatton	T29	T69	T4

 

2019: Francesco Molinari

	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Francesco Molinari	T26	T7	T9	T17	T5	T34

 

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Ludvig Aberg (+2000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

Following a sluggish start to the season, where he secured a T47 finish at The Sentry and a T30 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Aberg has demonstrated significant improvement in his recent outings. He regained his form at the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing T9, and followed it up with an impressive 2nd place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Despite being just one stroke behind Wyndham Clark heading into the final round, the event was curtailed, denying Aberg the opportunity to vie for victory on Sunday. In his most recent appearance, he secured a T19 finish at The Genesis Invitational.

Aberg made his debut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year, finishing T24.

His skill set aligns well with the demands of Bay Hill. His ability to drive the ball with distance should serve him well this week. Moreover, his approach game has shown consistency, gaining strokes in each of his first five starts this season. Additionally, his performance around the green has displayed an upward trend in his recent events. Aberg’s putting continues to be a strong asset in his arsenal. Considering his recent form and promising course history, Aberg appears poised to contend for his second PGA Tour victory at Bay Hill this week.

 

• Jordan Spieth (+2200) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Jordan has had a solid start to the 2024 season, beginning with a commendable 3rd-place finish at The Sentry. However, he faced challenges at Pebble Beach, concluding with a T39 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Nonetheless, he regained his stride at the WM Phoenix Open, securing a T6 finish. Unfortunately, in his most recent event, he was disqualified due to an incorrect scorecard.

When discussing “Horses for Courses,” Jordan Spieth undoubtedly stands out. Despite not yet clinching a victory at Bay Hill, he has delivered impressive T4 finishes in both of his initial appearances at the venue.

Spieth has displayed a strong affinity for this course in the past and has been in relatively good form of late. His short game remains stellar, and his play off the tee has shown marked improvement compared to last year. Additionally, his approach play has remained consistent, gaining strokes in three of his first four events. While his putting can be inconsistent at times, he has demonstrated a fondness for Bermudagrass and has consistently gained strokes on the green during his last two visits to Bay Hill.

 

• Sam Burns (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

Sam Burns has been in sensational form this season. Although he kicked off the season with a modest T33 finish at The Sentry, he quickly rebounded and embarked on an impressive run of four consecutive top-10 finishes. His standout performance came at the WM Phoenix Open, where he secured a notable T3 finish.

However, Burns encountered difficulties at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, failing to make the cut. Notably, he struggled with his iron game during that event, marking his poorest performance of the season in that aspect. Nevertheless, in previous editions, Burns achieved a commendable T9 finish in 2022.

Nicknamed “Bermudagrass” Burns, he has demonstrated a penchant for putting on Bermudagrass surfaces, with four out of his five victories occurring on this type of green. Additionally, his iron play and tee shots have shown positive trends. Although he has faced challenges in his play around the green in the past, he has shown significant improvement this season. Amongst the field, he currently ranks 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 6th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and Par 5 Scoring (550-600 Yards), all of which are crucial stats for this week’s event.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.09 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Jason Day (+110) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Jason Day has enjoyed a strong start to the 2024 season, securing top-10 finishes in three out of his first five events. His season commenced with a solid T10 performance at The Sentry. However, he faced a brief downturn, managing only a T34 finish at The American Express and missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. Nevertheless, Day quickly regained his form, delivering impressive showings in his last two starts with a T6 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a 9th place finish at The Genesis Invitational.

Day boasts an impressive track record at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, highlighted by his victory in 2016. Over his ten previous appearances at Bay Hill, he has secured five finishes inside the top 25.

His iron play has been particularly impressive this season, gaining strokes in four out of his first five events. Notably, he ranked 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach at both The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Additionally, his performance off the tee has been consistently strong, with positive strokes gained in every event this season. Day also excels in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards) and Par 5 Scoring (550-600), positioning him well for success at Bay Hill.

 

• Harris English (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Harris English has kicked off the season on a strong note, securing four top-20 finishes in his first six events. He commenced the year with a T14 finish at The Sentry and followed it up with a solid T10 performance at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, he encountered a challenging stretch at the Farmers Insurance Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Nevertheless, English has bounced back in his recent outings, securing a T17 finish at the WM Phoenix Open and an impressive 7th-place finish at The Genesis Invitational.

This week marks Harris English’s 11th appearance at Bay Hill. Out of those eleven starts, he has managed to secure a spot inside the top 10 on only two occasions. Notably, these two top 10 finishes occurred in 2020 and 2023. Last year, he delivered his best performance at this event, finishing T2, just one stroke behind Kitayama.

English’s performance off the tee has been exceptional this season, gaining strokes in five out of his first six starts. Although his approach play has been inconsistent, he showed improvement in his last event, raising hopes for continued progress. Additionally, he excels as a long iron player, a crucial skill for this week’s event. Even if he encounters trouble on his approach shots, his strong short game can compensate, as he has consistently gained strokes around the green in every event this year. Moreover, English has demonstrated a fondness for bermudagrass greens in the past.

 

• Keegan Bradley (+140) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Keegan has experienced a mixed start to the 2024 season. He began with a tepid performance, securing a T45 finish at The Sentry. However, he showcased his potential at the Sony Open in Hawaii, narrowly losing in a playoff to Grayson Murray. Unfortunately, he struggled to maintain that momentum in his subsequent events, finishing T43 at the Farmers Insurance Open and then achieving a T11 finish before missing the cut at The Genesis Invitational. Notably, one consistent factor in Bradley’s performance has been his putting. In each of the events where he excelled, he managed to gain strokes on the green.

As previously noted, Keegan’s putting has proven to be a significant factor in his success. Encouragingly, in his most recent three appearances at Bay Hill, he’s gained strokes putting. In these last three outings at this event, he achieved finishes of T10, T11, and T10, respectively.

Bradley’s performance off the tee and his approach play have shown positive trends in recent events. Additionally, his prowess as one of the longer hitters off the tee further enhances his suitability for the course.

 

• Kurt Kitayama (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Kitayama aims to defend his title at Bay Hill after clinching victory in last year’s event, marking an impressive tournament debut.

Despite experiencing mixed results this season, Kitayama has managed to make the cut in each of his first five events. He commenced the season with a T29 finish at The Sentry, followed by a T24 finish at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a T39 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His standout performance came at the WM Phoenix Open, where he secured a T8 finish. However, in his most recent start, he faced challenges on and around the greens, finishing T39.

Kitayama has faced difficulties with his putting this season, losing strokes on the green in four out of his first five events. Notably, the lone event where he gained strokes on the green, the WM Phoenix Open, featured Bermudagrass greens, similar to those at Bay Hill. Furthermore, he also gained strokes on the green in last year’s event. Kitayama demonstrates proficiency in several key categories this week, and based on his performance last year, appears poised for another strong finish in this year’s tournament.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 5.09 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.