2024 Belmont Stakes Preview & Picks

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The 156th edition of the Belmont Stakes takes place on Saturday, June 8th.

Dating back to 1867, this prestigious event stands as one of America’s oldest horse races, marking the final leg of the Triple Crown series, succeeding the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The Belmont Stakes is steeped in tradition, from adorning the winning horse with a blanket of white carnations to the pre-race anthem rendition of “New York, New York.” It has witnessed historic moments like Secretariat’s legendary record-breaking victory in 1973 and recent Triple Crown victories by American Pharoah and Justify.

Traditionally held at Belmont Race Course over the mile and a half distance, changes have been made for the 2024 edition. The race will cover a slightly shorter distance of 1+1⁄4 miles due to the smaller dimensions of the Saratoga dirt track. New York State Governor Kathy Hochul announced on December 6, 2023, that the race would move to Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. Alongside this relocation, the purse of the race will swell to $2 million.

Further changes were revealed by the New York Racing Association in March 2024, indicating that the 2025 Belmont Stakes would also be relocated to Saratoga, pending regulatory approval.

For a deeper dive into the Belmont Stakes, don’t miss out on our recent podcast episode.

Race Information:

  • Date: June 8th, 2024
  • Track: Saratoga Race Course
  • Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 12
  • Post Time: 6:41 PM ET
  • Length: 1 1/4 Miles (traditionally 1 1/2)
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Open | Three Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 12 & 13, Pick 3 ($1) (12-14), 2nd Half Met/ Belmont Double ($5)

TV Schedule:

  • FS1 – 10:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET
  • FOX – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

Weather:

  • Day: Cloudy 69 F, 0% Chance of Rain

Barring any unforeseen showers, we anticipate a fast track at Saratoga Race Course this week.

Previous Winners & Odds:

  • 2023: Arcangelo
    • Odds: 8-1
  • 2022: Mo Donegal
    • Odds: 5-2
  • 2021: Essential Quality
    • Odds: 2-1
  • 2020: Tiz the Law
    • Odds: 6-5
  • 2019: Sir Winston
    • Odds: 12-1
  • 2018: Justify *
    • Odds: 4-5

* Justify was a Tripple Crown Winner

Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Preakness Stakes Records:

  • Most Wins by a Trainer:
    • 8, James G. Rowe Sr. (1883, 1884, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910, 1913)
  • Most Wins by a Jockey:
    • 6, Jim McLaughlin (1882, 1883, 1884, 1886, 1887, 1888)
    • 6, Eddie Arcaro (1941, 1942, 1945, 1948, 1952, 1955)
  • Most Wins by an Owner:
    • 6, Belair Stud (1930, 1932, 1935, 1936, 1939, 1955)
    • 6, James R. Keene (1879, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910)

Preakness Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:

Post PositionWins
124 (18.75%)
214 (10.94%)
316 (12.50%)
410 (7.81%)
515 (11.72%)
69 (7.03%)
714 (10.94%)
87 (5.47%)
94 (3.13%)
101 (0.78%)
113 (2.34%)
121 (0.78%)
131 (0.78%)

Field:

Post PositionHorseJockey TrainerMorning Line (ML) Odds
1Seize the GreyJaime TorresD Wayne Lukas8-1
2ResilienceJunior AlvaradoWilliam I. Mott10-1
3Mystik DanBrian Hernandez Jr.Kenneth G. McPeek5-1
4The Wine StewardManny FrancoMichael Maker15-1
5AntiquarianJohn VelazauezTodd A. Pletcher12-1
6DornochLuis SaezDanny Gargan15-1
7ProtectiveTyler GaffalioneTodd A. Pletcher20-1
8Honor MarieFlorent GerouxWhitworth Beckman12-1
9Sierra LeoneFlavien PratChad C. Brown9-5
10MindframeIrad Ortiz Jr.Todd A. Pletcher7-2

Horse Preview:

Name: Seize the GreyML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): MyRacehorse (Michael Behrens)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Dam: Smart Shopping (Smart Strike)
Sire: Arrogate (Unbridled’s Song)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life10403
20245301
20235102
Saratoga Race Course2101

Name: ResilienceML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman
Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Dam: Meadowsweet (Smart Strike)
Sire: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life7211
20244200
20233011
Saratoga Race Course1000

Name: Mystik DanML Odds: 5-1
Owner(s): Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing (Brent and Sharilyn Gasaway), Daniel Hamby, Valley View Farm (Scott Hamby)
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Dam: Ma’am (Colonel John)
Sire: Goldencents (Into Mischief)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life8321
20245211
20233110
Saratoga Race Course0000

Name: The Wine StewardML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Paradise Farms Corp and David Staudacher
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Manny Franco
Dam: Call to Service (To Honor and Serve)
Sire: Vino Rosso (Curlin)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life6330
20242020
20234310
Saratoga Race Course1100

Name: AntiquarianML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Centennial Farms
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Dam: Lifetime Memory (Istan)
Sire: Preservationist (Arch)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life4210
20244210
20230000
Saratoga Race Course0000

Name: DornochML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): West Paces Racing LLC, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, LLC, Two Eight Racing, LLC and Pine Racing Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Sáez
Dam: Puca (Big Brown)
Sire: Good Magic (Curlin)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life7320
20243100
20234220
Saratoga Race Course1010

Name: ProtectiveML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Dam: Grace Hall (Empire Maker)
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro (El Prado)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life4012
20243002
20231010
Saratoga Race Course1010

Name: Honor MarieML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Ribble Farms LLC, Michael H. Eiserman, Earl I. Silver, Kenneth E. Fishbein, and Dave Fishbein
Trainer: Whitworth Beckman
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Dam: Dame Marie (Smart Strike)
Sire: Honor Code (A.P. Indy)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life6220
20243010
20233210
Saratoga Race Course0000

Name: Sierra LeoneML Odds: 9-5
Owner(s): Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brook T. Westerberg and Smith
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon)
Sire: Gun Runner (Candy Ride)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life5320
20243210
20232110
Saratoga Race Course0000

Name: MindframeML Odds: 7-2
Owner(s): Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables LLC
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Dam: Walk of Stars (Street Sense)
Sire: Constitution (Tapit)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life2200
20242200
20230000
Saratoga Race Course0000

Previous Races Against Fellow Entrants:

  • Kentucky Derby: (1st) Mystik Dan, (2nd) Sierra Leone, (6th) Resilience, (8th) Honor Marie, (10th) Dornoch
  • Preakness Stakes: (1st) Seize the Grey, (2nd) Mystik Dan
  • Remsen Stakes: (1st) Dornoch, (2nd) Sierra Leone
  • Risen Star Stakes: (1st) Sierra Leone, (4th) Resilience, (5th) Honor Marie
  • Peter Pan Stakes: (1st) Antiquarian, (2nd) The Wine Steward, (3rd) Protective
  • Wood Memorial Stakes: (1st) Resilience, (3rd) Protective
  • Blue Grass Stakes: (1st) Sierra Leone, (4th) Dornoch, (7th) Seize the Grey
  • Louisiana Derby: (2nd) Honor Marie, (6th) Antiquarian
  • 105k Maiden Special Weight (7/29/23): (1st) Seize the Grey, (2nd) Dornoch

Projected Race Setup:

Front Runners

  • (#1) SIEZE THE GREY
  • (#6) DORNOCH
  • (#10) MINDFRAME

Off the Pace

  • (#2) RESILIENCE
  • (#4) THE WINE STEWARD
  • (#5) ANTIQUARIAN

Middle of the Pact

  • (#3) MYSTIK DAN

Back of the Pact

  • (#7) PROTECTIVE

Closers

  • (#9) SIERRA LEONE

Picks:

This year’s Belmont Stakes boasts an exceptional field. Mystik Dan, victor of the Kentucky Derby, and Seize the Grey, triumphant in the Preakness Stakes, headline the lineup. Surprisingly, they are not the morning line favorites. Sierra Leone, who narrowly missed victory in the Kentucky Derby, holds the top spot in terms of odds. Following closely behind is Mindframe, despite having only two races under his belt, yet still emerging as a favorite.

The competition features a host of other formidable contenders. Resilience, winner of the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes, enters the fray with impressive credentials. Antiquarian, who displayed remarkable prowess in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes, emerges as a lively longshot. Completing the roster of contenders are Dornoch, victor of the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, and Honor Marie, who secured a second-place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby.

The Wine Steward and Protective are two horses I consider less likely to contend for the win.

  • $10 WIN – #5 ANTIQUARIAN, #6 DORNOCH
    • TICKET COST $20.00

One of my long shots for this race is the number 5, Antiquarian. With only four starts to his name, Antiquarian broke his maiden in his second outing on a sloppy surface at Fair Grounds. Despite a setback in the Louisiana Derby, where he broke through the starting gate before the race, he showed resilience to stalk the pace and stay in contention until the homestretch, eventually tiring. However, he regained momentum in his latest outing, clinching victory in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes. Notably, this race has produced four Belmont winners since 2010, including last year’s Arcangelo. While Antiquarian will need to enhance his speed figures on Saturday, his pedigree suggests the potential for success over this distance. Additionally, the fact that Todd Pletcher has secured victory in the Belmont four times adds further promise to this colt’s prospects.

My other long shot in this race is the number 6, Dornoch. Initiating his graded stakes campaign with triumphs in both the Grade II Remsen Stakes, where he defeated fellow entrant and morning line favorite Sierra Leone, and the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, Dornoch showed early promise. However, in his subsequent outing, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, the pace proved too fast, hindering his performance. In the Kentucky Derby, Dornoch encountered difficulties from the start, struggling out of the gate and failing to execute the planned strategy. With a more favorable position in the Belmont, where Saez can adopt an aggressive approach in the early stages, Dornoch has the potential to excel. If he can secure a strong start and dictate the pace, I believe this horse stands a good chance of success.

  • $4 EXACTA – 10 / 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
    • TICKET COST $20.00

Another contender I’m eyeing for victory in this race is the number 10, Mindframe. Despite being the least experienced colt in the field, he has showcased impressive performances in his first two starts. Mindframe broke his maiden in a 7F sprint at Gulfstream Park in March, winning by over 13 lengths and posting a remarkable 103 Beyer speed figure. Transitioning to a mile and an eighth in his next outing, he triumphed in an Allowance Optional Claimer at Churchill Downs, winning by over seven lengths. While Mindframe faces a significant step up in class, his previous speed figures highlight his talent and potential for success in this race. The combination of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Todd Pletcher further enhances his chances. Rather than solely placing a win bet, I intend to utilize Mindframe in an exacta with other horses underneath to enhance potential returns.

For the exacta, I’m selecting Seize the Grey, Mystik Dan, Antiquarian, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan have demonstrated their impressive abilities with recent victories. I’ve already discussed the strengths of Antiquarian and Dornoch earlier. As for Sierra Leone, there’s speculation about whether the distance reduction from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles will affect this closer positively or negatively. Flavien Prat will take over on the mount from Tyler Gaffalione so we may see him try to take a different approach with his horse. The Belmont hasn’t traditionally favored deep closers so I’m guessing he’ll try to emulate this horse’s first ride where he was positioned in the middle of the pack making it easier for him to close on the field down the stretch. I believe the decrease in distance hurts this horse limiting the additional quarter mile he had to close on the leader. While I fully expect him to hit the board, I think we see early speed prevail in the Belmont Stakes.

Longshot Superfecta:

  • $1 SUPERFECTA – 10 / 9 / 1, 3, 5, 6 / ALL
    • TICKET COST $28.00

If $28.00 is more than you’re comfortable spending on a Superfecta, you can also play this as a 50-cent Superfecta which would cut the ticket price in half.

TOTAL COST $40.00 ($68.00)

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

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