2024 BMW Championship Preview & Picks

We had a fantastic FedEx Cup St Jude Championship as we hit Hideki Matsuyama at 28-1 along with both of our placement bets Billy Horscehl (+115) T20 and Adam Scott (+140) T20.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs progress this week at the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club, where the top 50 players in the standings will compete. Only the top 30 players will advance to next week’s TOUR Championship, keeping their hopes alive for the PGA TOUR’s ultimate prize, the FedExCup.

Pre-Tournament Storylines

Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama entered the final round on Sunday at TPC Southwind with a commanding five-shot lead at 17-under. However, the back nine quickly turned dramatic as Hideki went 4-over from holes 12 to 16, leading to a three-way tie for the lead with Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele. A clutch birdie on the 17th hole put Matsuyama back in the lead, and he carried that momentum into the 18th, where he birdied again to secure a two-stroke victory at the BMW Championship. This win marked his first FedEx Cup Playoff victory and his second PGA Tour win of the season.

Jason Day

Jason Day, currently ranked 25th in the FedExCup standings, is the only player in this week’s field who competed at The International at Castle Pines the last time it hosted a PGA TOUR event in 2006.

Battle for the FedExCup No. 1 Spot

Scottie Scheffler currently leads the FedEx Cup standings with a 1,495-point advantage over Xander Schauffele, who is now the only player with a mathematical chance to overtake him. For Xander to do so, he would need to win this week at Castle Pines, as each playoff event awards 2,000 FedEx Cup points.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: August 22nd, 2024 – August 25th, 2024
• Location: Castle Rock, Colorado, United States
• Course: Castle Pines Golf Club
• Course Type: Technical
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 8,130 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: T1 Bentgrass / Poa annua .100”
• Fairways: Cool season mix / bentgrass / Poa annua / perennial ryegrass .400”
• Rough: Kentucky bluegrass / Turf Type tall fescue / perennial ryegrass 4”+
• Bunkers: 77
• Water Hazard(s): 10 (In-Play on 10 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,600 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 13.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$4,000,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
• Field: 50 Players
• Cut: No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death, 18 played repeadidly

Social Media:

• BMW Championship – (@BMWchamps)

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus (1981)
• Recent Renovations:
  • (2017)
    • A complete transformation of each of the 18 greens to state-of-the-art T-1 creeping bentgrass
    • Expanded tee complexes.
  • Jim Lipe (2020)
    • No. 9 – The ninth fairway and left-side fairway bunkering were realigned slightly right in conjunction with the reconstruction of the existing mountain stream on the hole’s right side. The fairway was regraded to improve fairway surface drainage and a forced carry pond was eliminated. A new back tee was added that can be used on both the ninth and eighteenth holes.
    • No. 14 – The existing mountain stream crossing on the fourteenth fairway was relocated along with adding a new fairway bunker.
    • No. 15 – A new back tee was added.
    • No. 16 – Reimagining the green and tee complexes and introducing a greenside pond/waterfall.
    • No. 17 – The mountain stream on the left side of the seventeenth hole was enlarged and new fairway and greenside bunkers were also added.

To read more about the renovation, you can click the following link.

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • Augusta National Golf Club – Masters Tournament – RESULTS
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – the Memorial Tournament – RESULTS
  • Shadow Creek – 2020 THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK – RESULTS

• Designer Link (Jack Nicklaus (1981)):
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Jack Nicklaus (1974) – the Memorial Tournament
  • Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – Jack Nicklaus (2004) – Barracuda Championship
  • PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – Jack Nicklaus (1987) – The American Express

• Comparable Location (Castle Rock, Colorado, United States):
  • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Scottsdale, Arizona – WM Phoenix Open
  • TPC Summerlin – Las Vegas, Nevada – Shriners Children’s Open

• Comparable Yardage (8,130 Yards):
  • Castle Pines is the longest course in PGA TOUR history. However, due to the elevation, its true distance will be roughly 7,100 yards.

• Comparable Greens (T1 Bentgrass / Poa annua .100”):
  • TPC River Highlands – Bentgrass / Poa annua .110” – Travelers Championship
  • Detroit Golf Club – Bentgrass / Poa annua .100” – Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • Tahoe Mountain Club – Bentgrass / Poa annua .100” – Barracuda Championship
  • Olympia Fields Country Club – Bentgrass / Poa annua .095” – 2023 BMW Championship
  • Silverado Resort and Spa – Poa annua / bentgrass – Fortinet Championship

• Comparable Average Green Size (5,600 sq. ft.):
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 5,500 sq. ft. – ZOZO Championship
  • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 5,500 sq. ft. – THE PLAYERS Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, August 22nd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 10:15 AM – 3:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, August 23rd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 10:15 AM – 3:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, August 24th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 9:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC- 3:00 AM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, August 25th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM
  • NBC- 2:00 AM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.

The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

Course/ Tournament History:

Castle Pines Golf Club, located in Castle Rock, Colorado, has a rich history that reflects both the vision of its founder and its significant impact on the golfing world. The club was founded in 1981 by Jack Vickers, a Denver-based oilman with a passion for golf and a desire to create a world-class golfing experience in the Rocky Mountains. Vickers envisioned a course that would not only challenge the best golfers in the world but also provide a serene and picturesque setting for its members. To realize this dream, he enlisted the help of renowned golf course architect Jack Nicklaus, who designed the course to take full advantage of the rugged, rolling terrain and the breathtaking views of the surrounding mountains.

From its inception, Castle Pines Golf Club has been recognized for its impeccable design and challenging layout. The course is set at an elevation of around 6,400 feet, which adds an extra layer of difficulty due to the thinner air and its effect on ball flight. The layout features dramatic elevation changes, strategically placed bunkers, and undulating greens, making it a true test for golfers of all skill levels. The course’s signature hole, the par-5 14th, is particularly famous for its stunning views and challenging design.

Castle Pines gained international acclaim when it became the host of The International, a PGA Tour event, from 1986 to 2006. The International was unique on the tour due to its Modified Stableford scoring system, which awarded points based on the number of strokes taken on each hole, encouraging more aggressive play. This format, along with the course’s challenging design, made The International one of the most exciting events on the PGA Tour calendar. The tournament attracted some of the biggest names in golf and was known for its dramatic finishes and spectacular scenery.

Despite its success, The International faced increasing challenges in securing sponsorship and maintaining its status on the PGA Tour. In 2007, the tournament was discontinued, marking the end of an era for Castle Pines. However, the club has continued to thrive as a private, member-owned golf club, known for its exclusivity, impeccable service, and commitment to maintaining the highest standards of course quality.

In 2020, the club revealed its most unique golf amenity called The Crags. The Crags is a massive, one-acre putting course built on a series of rocky crags on the western cliff directly behind the clubhouse. The Crags is already becoming known as one of the best 18-hole putting courses in the country.

The BMW Championship is one of the premier events on the PGA Tour, tracing its origins back to 1899 when it was first established as the Western Open. This makes it one of the oldest professional golf tournaments in the United States. Originally, the Western Open was organized by the Western Golf Association (WGA) and quickly became a prestigious event, often considered a major championship during the early 20th century.

In 2007, the tournament was rebranded as the BMW Championship when the German automaker BMW took over as the title sponsor. This change also marked the event’s inclusion in the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, positioning it as the penultimate playoff event before the Tour Championship. The BMW Championship is known for its strong fields, often featuring the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings, and is hosted at various prestigious golf courses across the United States, including Medinah Country Club, Conway Farms, and Olympia Fields.

Tournament Records:

• 72-Hole Record (Event – BMW Championship):
  • 261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)
• 18-Hole Record (Event – BMW Championship):
  • 59, Jim Furyk (Round 2, 2013 – Conway Farms Golf Club)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by Jack Nicklaus in 1981, Castle Pines Golf Club features a Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

The four Par 3’s (No. 4, No. 7, No. 11, & No. 16) at Castle Pines Golf Club range between 200 yards and 254 yards. In terms of stats, three of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.

No. 4, 254 Yards, Par 3: The fourth is a downhill par 3 with a wash along the entire right side of the hole. Although the green is generously sized, it can look deceptively small from the tee. The wash and two deep bunkers on the right often cause players to overcompensate to the left.

Once you are safely on, you’ll have to navigate a large, two-tiered putting surface that slopes more from front to back than it initially appears.

No. 7, 207 Yards, Par 3: The par 3 seventh was designed with the seventeenth hole at Glen Abbey Golf Club in mind. The elevated tee lies tucked into the trees, and four bunkers protect the green. The drop in elevation and swirling winds make club selection tough, and the large green is separated from right to left by a slope that will affect the break on most putts.

A small bunker is built right into the green and can make this usually tame hole a beast.

No. 11, 200 Yards, Par 3: The eleventh hole is a picturesque par 3 that Jack Vickers also thought would play well with water. A stream and two ponds guard this two-tiered green, which really makes the front hole location the toughest.

The green is 66 feet below the tee box, so this hole will play shorter than the yardage. Two bunkers on the right and one on the back left protect the green, and landing on the right tier is the key to a makeable putt.

No. 16, 226 Yards, Par 3: A picturesque par 3, the sixteenth hole has a green tucked in behind three cascading ponds. In addition to the water, three bunkers help define the putting surface but can make par a tough score if your ball lands in one.

It you have to bail out, err to the right and make sure you take enough club to clear the water in case you pull it left. The green size is deceptive from the tee, but it’s not too difficult to putt once you are on the putting surface.

There are ten Par 4s at Castle Pines Golf Club. No. 2 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 440 yards with the longest being No. 10, playing 545 yards.

No. 2, 440 Yards, Par 4: The second hole isn’t a long par 4, but a new pond and bunker guard the front and wrap around the right side of the green. The safe play is to lay back down the right side of the fairway off the tee to take advantage of the natural slope from right to left. A more aggressive route is with driver down the left side, which could leave a shorter approach but also risks getting wet if kept too far right.

The second shot plays slightly downhill; though it won’t be a long one, it demands an accurate approach. The green is long and narrow and is deceptively difficult to read.

No. 9, 495 Yards, Par 4: Originally the ninth hole had a ravine coming down from the clubhouse area. Jack Vickers thought it would be a good idea to put in a water feature, so the ravine was dammed up to create a series of cascading ponds on the right that partner with three fairway bunkers on the left. Now it’s one of the toughest drives on the course.

Once you are in the fairway, your second shot to this par 4 is uphill to a shallow green with a spine separating the left side from the right. Be sure to take enough club as most players come up short–and remember that this green can be one of the quickest on the course.

No. 12, 451 Yards, Par 4: Jack Nicklaus said he always enjoyed the tee shot on the twelfth hole because you can challenge the fairway bunkers on the right and be rewarded when you hit a good shot. But be forewarned that you will have some work left if your ball doesn’t find the fairway. There is also a water hazard down the entire left side of this par 4, so a good tee shot is imperative.

You can also play short of the bunkers off the tee because there is plenty of room to lay up, but a longer second shot brings the water left of the green and the two greenside bunkers into play. The green is somewhat narrow, but overall it isn’t too difficult to read.

No. 18, 514 Yards, Par 4: The eighteenth is a classic par 4 closing hole framed by the clubhouse in the background. It’s uphill from tee to green, so aim between the bunkers off the tee and let the fairway funnel your ball to the flattest lie. Long hitters can carry the right bunker but will be heavily penalized if they come up short.

The green is guarded by three bunkers and features a prominent swale in the middle, making putting tricky when the green speeds are up. Shorter approach shots can go right at the flag, but a safer line from further away is to favor the right side. It’s a great finishing hole for a great course.

There are four Par 5’s at Castle Pines Golf Club, No. 1, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 17.

No. 1, 622 Yards, Par 5: Long hitters can go for this Par 5 in two if they hit a good tee shot down the right side of the fairway. The downhill lie on your second can be a challenge, so most players should lay up to a comfortable yardage and avoid the three bunkers around the green.

No. 8, 601 Yards, Par 5: A three shot par 5 for most, the eighth hole plays uphill the entire way to an elevated green.

Drive the ball right down the middle to avoid the trees on the right and the two fairway bunkers on the left; then do the same on your second shot. Long hitters can get home in two, but they must avoid the trees on the right and a fairway bunker 25 yards short of the green.

Most players should leave themselves a comfortable yardage for their third. Two greenside bunkers sit to the left, but there is plenty of room on the right for a missed shot. The eighth green is one of the smallest, and a subtle ridge will come in to play when you are putting.

No. 14, 655 Yards, Par 5: The fourteenth hole is a tree lined, picturesque downhill par 5. Off the tee, the fairway is generous, but a grassed-in wash with deep rough guards the left side. The right center of the fairway is the ideal spot.

Your second shot requires either a layup before the creek that crosses the fairway or the guts to go over it. For the rest of the hole, water is in play as the creek flows along the left to a pond by the green. The green has a ridge in the middle that divides it from right to left, and cross green putts can really break. The best play is always to keep your ball below the hole and avoid the bunker that guards the back part of this shallow green.

No. 17, 532 Yards, Par 5: The seventeenth hole should give most players a good chance at birdie. This uphill par 5 is reachable in two with a good drive. Hit it right up the middle and avoid Cally’s Creek on the left and the trees on the right. If you can go for it in two, aim for the right side of the green to dodge the two deep bunkers on the left.

The L-shaped green is more accessible when you are chipping or pitching from the right side. If you can’t hit the green in two, it’s best to layup so you are hitting your third from a flat lie. The green itself has a lot of slope from back to front, and missing it long might be the hardest up and down on the course.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 4, 14, 17

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Cameron Young
    • Ludig Aberg
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Max Greyserman
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Davis Thompson
    • Robert MacIntyre

• Driving Distance
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance. Castle Pines is the longest course in PGA TOUR history.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Max Greyserman
    • Davis Thompson
    • Cameron Young
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Tommy Fleetwood

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Castle Pines Golf Club.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Tony Finau
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Aaron Rai
    • Tommy Fleetwood
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Shane Lowry
    • Tom Hoge
    • Russell Henley

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass / Poa annua)
  • The Greens at Castle Pines Golf Club are T1 Bentgrass / Poa annua .100”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • J.T. Poston
    • Aaron Rai
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Matt Fitzpatrick
    • Eric Cole
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Sam Burns
    • Max Greyserman
    • Sungjae Im
    • Adam Scott

• Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x3)
  • Three of the four Par 3’s at Castle Pines Golf Club range between 200-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Byeong Hun An
    • Sepp Straka
    • Russell Henley
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Billy Horschel
    • Aaron Rai
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Max Greyserman
    • Will Zalatoris
    • Taylor Pendrith

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
  • Six of the ten Par 4’s at Castle Pines Golf Club between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Robert MacIntyre
    • Russell Henley
    • Cam Davis
    • Matt Fitzpatrick
    • Max Greyserman
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout

• Par 5 Scoring: 650+ Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 5’s at Castle Pines Golf Club are 650+ Yards.
  • Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 650+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Adam Scott
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Brian Harman
    • Cameron Young
    • Sepp Straka
    • Justin Thomas
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Collin Morikawa

• Scrambling Gained
  • A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Sam Burns
    • Robert MacIntyre
    • Sungjae Im
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Billy Horschel
    • Brian Harman

• Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
  • Most approach shots at Castle Pines Golf Club come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Shane Lowry
    • Max Greyserman
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
    • Byeong Hun An
    • Aaron Rai
    • Cameron Young
    • Billy Horschel
    • Justin Thomas
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Robert MacIntyre

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • This will be the first time since 2006 that Castle Pines has hosted a PGA Tour event so we’ll have to rely on comparable courses this week.

The Field:

This year’s BMW Championship will feature a total of 50 competitors.

• Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
  • Top 50 FedExCup Points

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Viktor Hovland (’23), Patrick Cantlay (’22, ’21), Justin Thomas (’19), Keegan Bradley (’18), Jason Day (’15), Billy Horschel (’14)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Thomas Detry, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Max Greyserman, Stephan Jaeger, Robert MacIntyre, Matthieu Pavon, Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • None

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:

Scottie Scheffler (+330) finished 4th last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, fresh off his gold medal win at the Paris Olympics. Prior to Paris, Scheffler won two of his last four starts, claiming victories at the Travelers Championship and the Memorial Tournament. This marks his fifth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he finished T3 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club and T2 in 2023 at Olympia Fields Country Club.

Xander Schauffele (+550) has won two major championships this season, but those remain his only victories so far. He finished T2 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, just two strokes shy of the win. This will be Schauffele’s eighth appearance at the BMW Championship, with notable finishes including T3 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club and T8 in 2023 at Olympia Fields Country Club.

Rory McIlroy (+1200) is coming off one of his worst performances of the season, finishing T68 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. Despite recent struggles, McIlroy has a strong track record at the BMW Championship, including a victory in 2012 at Crooked Stick Golf Club. More recently, he finished 4th in 2021 at Caves Valley Golf Club, T8 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club, and 4th in 2023 at Olympia Fields Country Club.

Collin Morikawa (+1400) has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season, but he has consistently performed well, finishing inside the top 30 in each of his last twelve starts. Last week, he placed T22 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, marking the first time since April’s RBC Heritage that he lost strokes on approach. This will be Morikawa’s sixth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has only cracked the top 20 once, finishing inside the top 20 in 2020 at Olympia Fields Country Club.

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

• Will There Be a Playoff at the BMW Championship? (Yes +350/ No -500)

The BMW Championship has ended in a playoff in three of the past six editions. The most recent playoff was in 2021 at Caves Valley when Patrick Cantlay defeated Bryson DeChambeau.

Castle Pines Golf Club hosted the International, a PGA Tour event from 1986 to 2006. In the last edition of that event, before it was canceled, the tournament was decided in a playoff with Dean Wilson defeating Tom Lehman.

Hole-in-One:

• Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the BMW Championship? (Yes +170 / No -250)

Last year at the BMW Championship, which was held at Olympia Fields, there were no holes in one made. In 2022, the BMW Championship was held at Wilmington Country Club where Viktor Hovland made a hole-in-one on hole No. 2.

Recent Horses for Courses (BMW Championship):

Recent Donkeys for Courses (BMW Championship):

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Viktor Hovland (-17) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
  • Price: 18-1

• 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) – Wilmington Country Club (South)
  • Price: 16-1

• 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
  • Price: 25-1

• 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
  • Price: 10-1

• 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
  • Price: 16-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Viktor Hovland
  • T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • T13 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T25 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
  • T29 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • 19 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

• 2022: Patrick Cantlay
  • T57 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • T2 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • T8 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T4 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
  • T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Patrick Cantlay
  • T11 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T23 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • T15 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

• 2020: Jon Rahm
  • T6 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
  • T52 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • WON – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • T27 – Workday Charity Open (PGA)

• 2019: Justin Thomas
  • T12 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T12 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • T11 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T9 – Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open (EUR)
  • T36 – Travelers Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Viktor Hovland

2022: Patrick Cantlay

2021: Patrick Cantlay

2020: Jon Rahm

2019: Justin Thomas

Picks:

Outrights:

• Viktor Hovland (+1800) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

Viktor Hovland has had a season full of ups and downs, but he heads into the BMW Championship with momentum after an impressive T2 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Among the field, he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in SG: Off the Tee, and 12th in SG: Putting. Hovland is the defending champion of this event, having won last year at Olympia Fields, which shares the same green complex as Castle Pines. Outside of that victory, his best finish in this event was a T17 in 2021 at Caves Valley Country Club. Hovland has also found success on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses, including a win at the Memorial Tournament last season. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee, 6th in SG: Approach, and 15th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). Additionally, he ranks 22nd in Driving Distance Gained, 40th in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), 26th in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards), and 30th in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards).

• Wyndham Clark (+3300) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Wyndham Clark secured his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He followed that with runner-up finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Recently, Clark has continued his strong play, finishing T9 at the Travelers Championship, T10 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be his fourth appearance at the BMW Championship, with his best finish coming last year at Olympia Fields, where he finished T15. Over the past 24 rounds, Clark ranks 19th in SG: Off the Tee, 42nd in SG: Approach, and 3rd in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 5th in Driving Distance Gained, 7th in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), 9th in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards), and 16th in Scrambling Gained.

• Tony Finau (+3300) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Tony Finau has yet to claim a PGA Tour victory this season, but he has been remarkably consistent, finishing inside the top 20 in eight of his last ten starts. His recent form includes a T12 finish at the 3M Open and a T16 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be his tenth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has recorded five top-20 finishes. His best finish during this span was a 4th place at Medinah Country Club in 2019. Over the past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 38th in SG: Off the Tee and 2nd in SG: Approach.

• Sam Burns (+3500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Sam Burns has not yet won on the PGA Tour this season, but he is hitting his stride, with a T12 finish at the 3M Open and a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. This will be his fourth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has finished 8th in 2021 at Caves Valley Country Club, T19 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club, and T15 in 2023 at Olympia Fields. Over the past 24 rounds, Burns ranks 18th in SG: Off the Tee and 7th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 12th in Driving Distance Gained, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), and 19th in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards).

• Matt Fitzpatrick (+7000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

Matt Fitzpatrick has had an up-and-down season but comes into the BMW Championship following a T18 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Despite a rocky year, Fitzpatrick has a strong record on Nicklaus-designed courses, including a T5 finish at the Memorial Tournament in 2024 and T9 in 2023. This will be his fourth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has finished T6 in 2020 at Olympia Fields, T48 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club, and T2 in 2023 at Olympia Fields.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.30 Units

Top 20 (including ties):

• Adam Scott (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Adam Scott’s last win came at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in 2020, but he enters this week’s event in strong form. In his last three starts, he finished 2nd at the Genesis Scottish Open, T10 at The Open Championship, and T18 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Despite the rotating venues for the BMW Championship, Scott has a history of success in this event. In his last twelve appearances, he has finished inside the top 10 six times. Last year at Olympia Fields, he finished T5, just four shots behind the winner. Notably, at the 2014 BMW Championship hosted at Cherry Hills in Colorado, he placed T8. Over the past 24 rounds, Scott ranks 21st in SG: Off the Tee, 34th in SG: Approach, and 10th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 23rd in Driving Distance Gained, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards), and 2nd in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards).

• Taylor Pendrith (+135) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units

Canadian native Taylor Pendrith captured his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He comes into this week in great form, having finished T5 at the Barracuda Championship, 5th at the 3M Open, and T22 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in his last three starts. This will be his second appearance at the BMW Championship, with his best finish being T8 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club. Pendrith’s distance off the tee should provide an advantage this week, especially with the elevation. His approach play has also significantly improved, as he’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last six events. Last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he ranked 8th in the field in that category. Over the past 24 rounds, Pendrith ranks 26th in SG: Off the Tee, 19th in SG: Approach, and 18th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 6th in Driving Distance Gained, 10th in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), and 17th in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards).

• Nick Dunlap (+150) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Nick Dunlap has had an impressive rookie season, winning The American Express as an amateur and more recently securing his first professional victory at the Barracuda Championship. Following that win, he struggled with missed cuts at the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship. However, he bounced back with a T5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, where he ranked 5th in SG: Approach, 6th in SG: Tee to Green, and 11th in SG: Putting. This will be Dunlap’s first BMW Championship, but he has already shown an affinity for Jack Nicklaus-designed courses, finishing T12 at Muirfield Village earlier this season. Additionally, Dunlap has performed well out West, with both of his wins coming in the Pacific Time Zone. Notably, he also won the 2023 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills Country Club, located in Denver, Colorado.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

Total Risk on the BMW Championship: 4.30 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.