2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Preview & Picks

Last week, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry clinched victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, triumphing over Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer in an intense playoff. McIlroy, hailing from Northern Ireland, secured his 25th PGA TOUR title, marking his first win of the season. Meanwhile, Lowry, representing Ireland, celebrated his third PGA TOUR victory. Both golfers earned approximately $1.29 million in prize money and garnered 400 FedExCup points each for their stellar performance.

Lets get into this weeks storylines…

Jason Day is back at TPC Craig Ranch with hopes of achieving consecutive victories. K.H. Lee managed to defend his title as champion in 2022-23. Day, who previously triumphed in this event in 2010, aims to add another win to his impressive record.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: May 2nd, 2024 – May 5th, 2024
• Location: McKinney, Texas, United States
• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Course Type: Parkland 
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,414 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass .100”
• Fairways: Zoysiagrass .450”
• Rough: Bermudagrass 2.75”
• Bunkers: 83
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 13 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,778 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,500,000 /$1,710,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 156 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden-Death (18,18,10,18)
• Course Scoring Average:
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: -4
  • 2022: -5
  • 2021: -6

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Tom Weiskopf (2004)
• Recent Renovations: N/A

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • Grand Reserve Golf Club – Puerto Rico Open – RESULTS
  • Vidanta Vallarta – Mexico Open at Vidanta – RESULTS
  • TPC Scottsdale – WM Phoenix Open – RESULTS

• Designer Link (Tom Weiskopf (2004)):
  • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Tom Weiskopf (1986) – WM Phoenix Open

• Comparable Location (McKinney, Texas):
  • TPC San Antonio – San Antonio, Texas – Valero Texas Open
  • Memorial Park Golf Course – Houston, Texas – Texas Children’s Houston Open
  • Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, Texas – Charles Schwab Challenge

• Comparable Yardage (7,414 Yards):
  • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,412 Yards – Texas Children’s Houston Open
  • Albany – 7,414 Yards – Hero World Challenge
  • TPC Louisiana – 7,425 Yards – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
  • TPC Twin Cities – 7,431 Yards – 3M Open

• Comparable Average Green Size (6,778 sq. ft.):
  • Quail Hollow Club – 6,578 sq. ft. – Wells Fargo Championship

• Comparable Greens (Bentgrass .100”):
  • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
  • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
  • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North) – Bentgrass .100″ – Farmers Insurance Open
  • TPC Deere Run – L-93 Bentgrass .100” – John Deere Classic
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
  • Keene Trace Golf Club (Champions Course) – Bentgrass – Kentucky Championship
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, May 2nd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:45 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, May 3rd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:45 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, May 4th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, May 5th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

• Thursday: Thunderstorms 78 F, 14 mp/h SSE, 86% Humidity, 79% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Am Clouds/ PM Sun 81 F, 9 mp/h E, 79% Humidity, 17% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 80 F, 11 mp/h SE, 82% Humidity, 55% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 78 F, 13 mp/h SSE, 82% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

The CJ CUP Byron Nelson is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour named after golfer Byron Nelson. It has a rich history dating back to 1944 when it was first played as the Texas Victory Open. Nelson, a legendary golfer who won 11 consecutive tournaments in 1945, was a beloved figure in the golfing world.

The tournament has undergone several name changes and course locations throughout its history. It was held at various courses in the Dallas/Fort Worth area before settling at its current location, TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, in 2021.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 4, Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, 1980)
• 72-Hole Record (TPC Craig Ranch):
  • 261, Jason Day (2023)
• 18-Hole Record (TPC Craig Ranch):
  • 60, Sebastian Munoz (Round 1, 2022 at TPC Craig Ranch), S.Y. Noh (Round 1, 2023 at TPC Craig Ranch)
• Largest Margin of Victory:
  • 10 Strokes, Sam Snead (1957)

Course Guide/ Scorecard

Originally crafted by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, TPC Craig Ranch features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.

In terms of length, TPC Craig Ranch is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,414 yards. It ranks 10th out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 8 of 44, with the average fairway width being 37.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,778 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour.

The four Par 3’s range between 147 yards and 232 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par except No. 17.

No. 7, 232 Yards, Par 3: “This is a large green that slopes back to front. It is best to miss your tee shot short right, this will give you the best opportunity to get up and down.”

No. 17, 232 Yards, Par 3: “A true sleeper par 3, don’t let the yardage fool you. The wind will make hitting this green a true test. Any shot coming up short will be punished by the false front on the green and may roll back into the front bunker.”

There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Craig Ranch with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 330 yards with the longest being No. 13, playing 512 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 16 (+0.202).

No. 6, 361 Yards, Par 4: “This is a short par 4 that brings a lot of strategy into play. The fairway is well protected by bunkers, if you want to attack this hole finding the fairway is a must. If you hit driver off the tee and get to close to the green, attacking a front pin location is difficult. This is one of our smallest greens, be aggressive if find the fairway and have a wedge in your hand.”

No. 14, 330 Yards, Par 4: “This short par four is a through risk/reward hole. The shorter hitters have to decide what yardage second shot they want to have, there is more room right off the tee than appears. Most big hitter will take on the green, the bunkers right are always there to catch a bail out shot. This is one of our most undulated greens, you have to be accurate with your wedges if you want to make birdie.”

No. 16, 492 Yards, Par 4: “A long and testing par four, into the wind this hole will challenge the best of players. You have to avoid the bunkers down the left if you want to hit this green in two. The bunkers front right hide what is one of the biggest greens on the course. Hitting the middle of this green is never a bad play. There is a severe slope on the left side of the green, and getting up and down from the chipping area is hard.”

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 9 with a scoring average of 4.429.

No. 9, 564 Yards, Par 5: “This is a tough tee shot on a windy day because of the forced carry. Plenty of room right off the tee, playing down the left side will result in more run out and better angle to the green. The big decision you have to make is with your lay up, being aggressive and taking on the creek opens up the green for third shot. This green has three tiers, distance and spin control with your wedge shot is a must.”

No. 18, 552 Yards, Par 5: “Another risk/reward hole to finish, there is a large landing area for those who have to lay up. The longer hitter off the tee will have an approach shot between 220-250 to the middle of the green. This green has two distinct levels, and if you want to make birdie being on the correct level is a must.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 14

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Each of the past three winners ranked 8th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tom Hoge
    • Ryan Moore
    • Keith Mitchell
    • Jake Knapp
    • Kelly Kraft

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Each of the past three winners ranked 23rd or better in SG: Approach amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Kevin Yu
    • Kevin Dougherty
    • Keith Mitchell
    • Alejandro Tosti
    • Cameron Champ

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • The greens at TPC Craig Ranch are Bentgrass .100”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Aaron Baddeley
    • Thorbjorn Olesen
    • Dylan Wu
    • Garrick Higgo

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • The last five winners of this event have been -23 or better. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity that presents itself.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Matti Schmid
    • Wesley Bryan
    • Tom Hoge
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Keith Mitchell

• Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Craig Ranch range between 200-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Chez Reavie
    • Alexander Bjork
    • Davis Thompson
    • Martin Laird

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
  • Six of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Craig Ranch range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Erik Barnes
    • Tom Hoge
    • Stephan Jaeger
    • Max Greyserman

• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
  • All three of the Par 5’s at TPC Craig Ranch range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Alex Noren
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Thorbjorn Olesen
    • Jason Day
    • Thomas Detry

• Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Robert Macintyre
  • Andrew Novak
  • Kevin Yu
  • Thorbjorn Olesen
  • Patrick Fishburn

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at TPC Craig Ranch hasn’t proven to be extremly advantageous. However, we have seen multiple players in the past few years win twice at this course including Jason Day, K.H. Lee, and Sergio Garcia.

• Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
  • Daniel Berger (3 Events – 67.17 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Marty Dou Zecheng (2 Events – 67.17 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Kyounghoon Lee (4 Events – 67.20 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Byeong-Hun An (2 Events – 67.38 Scoring Average per Round)
  • Tom Kim (2 Events – 67.63 Scoring Average per Round)

The Field:

This year’s THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson will feature a total of 156 competitors.

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Jason Day (’23, ’10), K.H. Lee (’22, ’21), Sung Kang (’20),

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alex Smalley, Alexander Bjork, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, David Nyfjall, Erik Barnes, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jarred Jeter, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Yu, Kris Kim, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Nick Hardy, Nicolas Echavarria, Norman Xiong, Patrick Fishburn, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Taiga Semikawa, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry, Trace Crowe, Wilson Furr

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • OUT: Christiaan Bezuidenhout -> IN: Richy Werenski 
  • IN: Austin Smotherman (sponsor exemption)
  • IN: Zechang Dou (sponsor exemption)
  • OUT: Richy Werenski -> IN: Ryan Palmer
  • IN: James Hahn (sponsor exemption)
  • OUT: Patrick Rodgers -> IN: Sean O’Hair
  • OUT: Charley Hoffman -> IN: Richy Werenski
  • OUT: Will Zalatoris -> IN: Nick Watney

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites in this week’s event and a summary of their recent form and course history.

Jordan Spieth (+1400) finished runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2022, which was the last time he played at TPC Craig Ranch. The University of Texas product has been struggling as of late missing the cut in three of his last five starts. In his ten starts this season on the PGA Tour, Speith has only finished inside the top 10 three times.

Si Woo Kim (+1600) finished runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson last season. He’s finished inside the top 20 in three of his last four starts this year. He’s also yet to miss a cut which is impressive as well.

Jason Day (+2000) has won the AT&T Byron Nelson twice before and is the current defending champion. He has finished inside the top 10 three times this season and is coming off an impressive finish at the RBC Heritage where he placed T18.

Alex Noren (+2200) finished T12 (2022) and T21 (2021) in his last two starts at this venue. He enters this event in good form having finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour.

Adam Scott (+2200) won this event back in 2008. He’s played in seven events this season having finished inside the top 20 in five of his starts.

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score: 260.5 / -23.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

In the past three editions of this event, the winning score has been below 260.5 (-23.5) twice.

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350/ No -500)

In the past five editions of this event, there has not been a playoff. However, in both 2017 and 2016, there was a playoff.

To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.

Recent Horses for Courses

Recent Donkeys for Courses:

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Jason Day (-23)
  • Price: 18-1

• 2022: K.H. Lee (-26)
  • Price: 125-1

• 2021: K.H. Lee (-25)
  • Price: 200-1

• 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
  • Price: 125-1

• 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
  • Price: 50-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form

• 2023: Jason Day
  • MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
  • T39 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
  • T5 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T19 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T10 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)

• 2022: K.H. Lee
  • T25 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
  • MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • MC – The Masters (PGA)
  • MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T55 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)

• 2021: K.H. Lee
  • T58 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
  • T29 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
  • T23 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • T56 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • T23 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)

• 2019: Sung Kang
  • MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • T42 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T18 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
  • T47 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)

• 2018: Aaron Wise
  • T2 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T32 – Houston Open (PGA)
  • T41 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Jason Day

2022: K.H. Lee

2021: K.H. Lee

2019: Sung Kang

2018: Aaron Wise

• Tournament Debut

Picks (Outrights):

• Tom Hoge (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Keith Mitchell (+4000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Mackenzie Hughes (+4500) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

• Chan Kim (+8000) – FanDuel
• Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

• Nate Lashley (+9000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units

• Justin Lower (+9000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units

• C.T. Pan (+10000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.99 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Byeong-Huh An (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

• Seamus Power (+200) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

• Justin Lower (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

• Matti Schmid (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

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Total Risk on THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: 4.99 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.