For a deeper dive into the Kentucky Derby and Oaks, don’t miss out on our recent podcast episode where we thoroughly analyze both races.

The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4th.

The Kentucky Derby serves as the inaugural stage of the American Triple Crown for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. Annually hosted at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, it falls on the initial Saturday in May, a tradition upheld since 1875. Spanning a distance of 1 1/4 miles, the race stands as an iconic hallmark in the realm of horse racing. It’s open to both colts and fillies, though colts traditionally dominate the field.

Participation in the Kentucky Derby hinges on qualification through a series of preparatory events dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby. These stakes races occur nationwide, granting Derby qualifying points to the top four contenders. The final roster of Derby entrants comprises horses amassing the most qualifying points, with two coveted positions out of 20 reserved for top qualifiers from European and Japanese Road to the Derby events.

It’s often referred to as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” due to the race’s approximately two-minute duration. The Derby is renowned for its traditions, including the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” as the horses parade to the starting gate and the mint julep, a traditional drink made with bourbon, sugar, water, and mint, which is closely associated with the event.

Race Information:

• Date: May 4th, 2024
• Track: Churchill Downs
• Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
• Event Grade: Grade I
• Race: 12
• Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
• Length: 1 1/4 Mile
• Purse: $5,000,000
• Division: Open | Three Years Old
• Surface: Dirt
• Wagers: Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14) Super Hi-5

TV Schedule:

• NBC – 2:30 PM – 8:00 PM ET

Weather:

• Day: Scattered Thunderstorms, 79 F, 49% Chance of Rain

Previous Winners & Odds:

• 2023: Mage
  • Odds: 15-1
• 2022: Rich Strike *
  • Odds: 80-1
• 2021: Mandaloun **
  • Odds: 15-1
• 2020: Authentic
  • Odds: 8-1
• 2019: Country House ***
  • Odds: 65-1
• 2018: Justify
  • Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)

* Rich Strike had the second-longest odds ever to win at 80-1. The biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby was Donerail in 1913 going off at 91-1.

** Medina Spirit won the race but was disqualified after failing a post-race drug test. Trainer Bob Baffert was issued a two-year ban from Churchill Downs and is currently serving the second year of his sentence.

*** Maximum Security won the race but was disqualified due to interference. This was the first time ever that a horse got disqualified for a foul during the Kentucky Derby. He also had the third-longest odds ever to win at 65-1.

Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:

• Most Wins by a Trainer:
  • 6, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
  • 6, Ben A. Jones (1938, 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952)
• Most Wins by a Jockey:
  • 5, Eddie Arcaro (1938, 1941, 1945, 1948, 1952)
  • 5, Bill Hartack (1957, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969)
• Most Wins by an Owner:
  • 8, Calumet Farm (1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952, 1957, 1958, 1968)

Kentucky Derby Historical Post Position Stats:

The starting gate was first utilized in the 1930 Kentucky Derby. Since then, every post position has had a winner besides No. 17. Overall, post position No. 5 has had the most winning horses with 10. Since 2000, ten winners have come from either gate 5 or 10.

Field:

Horse Preview:

Dornoch, a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, broke his maiden in his third career start, winning a $99,000 Maiden Special Weight at Keeneland. He then won the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) at Aqueduct and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park. In his most recent race, Dornoch finished fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone, Just a Touch, and Epic Ride.

In all three of the races, Dornoch won, he set the pace. He draws a tough position along the rail so it will be Luis Saez’s job to get him out of the gate quickly. Saez has ridden Dornoch in five of his six career starts.

This will be Luis Saez’s 11th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He rode Maximum Security in the 2019 Derby which he won only to be disqualified for interference on the second turn. In 2020, he rode the post-time favorite, Essential Quality, and finished 3rd for his only official in-the-money result in the Derby.

Sierra Leone broke his maiden in his first career start, winning a $85,000 Maiden Special Weight at Aqueduct. Following that race, he lost by a nose in the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) to fellow entrant Dornoch. Sierra Leone won the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) and the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) in his two most recent races. He’s continued to improve in each start and enters the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites.

Sierra Leone is a closer so you won’t see Gaffalione try to jump out to the front of the pack. This colt has shown that he can adapt to any pace set whether it be slow (Risen Star) or much faster (Blue Grass).

Tyler Gaffalione, who has ridden Sierra Leone in each of his last two starts will retain the mount. This will be Tyler Gaffalione’s 7th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to finish in-the-money with his best finish coming back in 2019 with War of Will who ran seventh. To be fair, this is the best horse that he has ridden in the Derby with all six of his previous rides going off at odds of at least 14-1.

Mystik Dan broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $121,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. After that, he finished fifth in $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming and fifth in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. Following those two races, he won his second race in the Southwest Stakes (Grade III) defeating fellow entrants Catching Freedom and Just Steel. In his most recent race, he ran third in the Arkansas Derby (Grade III) despite being bumped.

In both of the races that he won, he has gotten out to the front so I’m expecting Brian Hernadez to follow a similar strategy in the Derby.

Brian Hernadez has ridden Mystik Dan in five of his six career starts. This will be Brian Hernadez’s 5th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to finish in-the-money with his best finish coming back in 2017 with McCraken who ran eighth.

Catching Freedom broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $121,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. Following that he ran fourth in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming. After that, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park defeating fellow entrant Just Steel. In the following race, he finished 3rd in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone and Track Phantom. In his most recent race, he won the Louisiana Derby (Grade II) at Fair Grounds defeating fellow entrant Honor Marie.

In all three of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs. I’m expecting Flavian Prat to hold him back out of the gate and follow a similar strategy as they did in the Louisiana Derby.

This will be Flavian Prat’s 7th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with Country House after Maximum Security was disqualified. Prat has hit the board in five of his first six Derby mounts. Last year, he finished third with Angel of Empire who was the post-time favorite.

Catalytic is one of the more inexperienced horses in the field having only races three times before. He broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $43,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park. After that, he missed some time with his next start coming five months later. In his second start, he ran second in an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs. In his most recent start, Catalytic finished second in the Florida Derby (Grade I) behind fellow entrant and current favorite Fierceness. He’s continued to improve in each start and seemed to handle the distance well in his last race. However, if he wants to be a contender in the Derby, he’ll need to make a major leap.

In his lone victory, Catalytic got out to the front and Leparoux followed a similar strategy in the Florida Derby so I’m expecting Jose Ortiz to try and push him towards the front early.

This will be Jose Ortiz’s first mount of Catalytic and 9th mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2018 where he finished second with Good Magic. Ortiz has already won the Preakness (2022) and Belmont Stakes (2017) so he just needs the Derby to complete a career Triple Crown.

Just Steel is one of the more experienced horses in the field with eleven starts to his name. He broke his maiden in his third start, winning a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight at the Spa. Following that, he finished seventh in the Hopeful Stakes (Grade I) and 6th in the Breeders’ Futurity. After that disappointing finish, they cut him back in distance. In his next two races, both sprints, he finished 3rd in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming race and then won the Ed Brown Stakes. They then moved him back up in distance where he finished second in both the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest Stakes (Grade III). In the Smarty Jones Stakes, he lost to fellow entrant Catching Freedom and in the Southwest Stakes (Grade II) he lost to fellow entrant Mystik Dan. In his two most recent stats, Just Steel finished 7th in the Rebel Stakes (Grade II) and second in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I). His best performance to date was in the Arkansas Derby which was encouraging.

In his two victories, Just Steel has come from just off the pace. The projected pace is expected to be fast so I’m expecting Kieth Asmussen to try and keep him as close to the front runners as possible.

Kieth Asmussen is the son of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. He rode Just Steel in the Arkansas Derby and will retain the mount. This will be his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

Honor Marie broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $91,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. Following that he ran second in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming. After that, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II) at Churchill Downs. In the following race, he finished fifth in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Louisiana Derby (Grade II) at Fair Grounds behind fellow entrant Catching Freedom.

In both of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs. I’m expecting Ben Curtis to hold him back out of the gate and follow a similar strategy as they did in the Louisiana Derby.

This will be Ben Curtis’s first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

Just A Touch is one of the more inexperienced horses in the field having only races three times before. He broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $57,000 Maiden Special Weight at Fair Grounds. After an impressive debut, he competed in the Gotham Stakes (Grade III) where he finished second. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) losing to fellow entrant Sierra Leone. While he has finished runner-up in each of his last two starts, his speed figures are improving against some tougher competition. He’s also been increasing in distance each race and has seemed to handle it well which is also encouraging.

In each of his three races, Just A Touch has gotten out to the front. Florent Geroux, who has ridden this horse in each of his first three career starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.

This will be Florent Geroux’s 8th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Manadloun which was awarded nine months after the race when stewards disqualified Medina Spirit. Last year, he finished seventeenth with Jace’s Road.

T O Password is the most inexperienced horse in the field having only raced twice before. He earned the Derby spot for the horse from the qualifying races that were run in Japan. T O Password has won both of his first two career starts. The first was a $81,900 Maiden and the second was the Fukuryu Stakes.

In each of his two races, T O Password has got out to the front. However, based on his splits I’m not sure he has the speed to contest in this race given the projected pace. This will also be a step up in class for him as the Fukuryu Stakes didn’t possess the pedigree of horses that this field has.

This will be Kazushi Kimura’s first mount on T O Password. Kimura rode Mandarin Hero in last year’s Derby who finished 12th.

He broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $91,700 Maiden at Kyoto Racetrack. He won his next two races, the JBC Nisai Yushun and Zennippon Nisai Yushun. After that, he competed in his first stakes race, the Boutique Group Saudi Derby (Grade III) at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Saudi Arabia which he won. In his most recent race, he won the UAE Derby (Grade II).

This is one of the more impressive horses from Japan to compete in the Derby. Forever Young has won each of his first five starts and put together an impressive performance in the UAE Derby. This will be the best field that this 3-year-old has faced but based on his past performances, he has a chance at becoming the first horse from Japan to win the Kentucky Derby.

Ryusei Sakai will retain the mount on Forever Young who has ridden this horse in each of his first five starts. This will be his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

Track Phantom broke his maiden in his third start, winning a $123,000 Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs. After that, he took a step up in class and won the Gun Runner Stakes. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Lecomte Stakes (Grade III) which he won. Following that, he finished second in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) behind fellow entrant Sierra Leone. In his most recent race, he finished 4th in the Louisiana Derby (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.

In each of his three wins, Track Phantom has gotten out to the front. Joel Rosario, who has ridden this horse in each of his last three starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.

This will be Joel Rosario’s 13th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb. Last year, he finished fourth with Disarm.

West Saratoga is one of the more experienced horses in the field with ten starts to his name. He broke his maiden in his fifth start, winning a $70,000 Maiden Special Weight at Ellis Park. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Iroquois Stakes (Grade III) which he won. After that, he took a step up in class and finished fifth in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I). In his next two races, West Saratoga ran second in the Pasco Stakes and third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade III) both at Tampa Bay Downs. In his most recent race, he finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade III) behind fellow entrant Endlessly.

In both of his wins, West Saratoga has gotten out to the front. Jesús Castañón, who has ridden this horse in each of his last two starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.

This will be Jesús Castañón’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His last mount in the Derby was back in 2011 where he rode Shackleford who finished fourth.

Endlessly broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $83,000 Maiden Special Weight at Del Mar. In his next two starts, he won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes (Grade III) and Zuma Beach Stakes (Grade III). After that, he took a step up in class and finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I). Endlessly rebounded in his next race winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. In his most recent race, he won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade III) at Turfway Park defeating fellow entrant West Saratoga.

There is some concern with Endlessly as he has not raced on dirt before. While he has won five of his six career starts they all came over turf or synthetic surfaces.

In all three of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs. I’m expecting Umberto Rispoli to hold him back out of the gate and follow a similar strategy as they did in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

This will be Umberto Rispoli’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His last mount in the Derby was back in 2021 where he rode Brooklyn Strong who finished fourteenth.

Domestic Product broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $90,000 Maiden Special Weight. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) where he finished seventh. After that, he finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III) one spot ahead of Fierceness. In his most recent race, he won the South Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III) at Tampa Bay Downs defeating fellow entrant Grand Mo the First.

In both of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs.

This will be Irad Ortiz’s first mount of Domestic Product and 8th mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2019 where he finished fourth with Improbable. Irad Ortiz is one of the best jockey’s as he has won the Eclipse Award five of the last six years. While he has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, he has won the Belmont Stakes twice.

Fierceness broke his maiden in his first start, winning a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga. After that, he took a step up in class and finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I). Following that, he rebounded winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) by over six lengths. He competed in the Holly Bull Stakes (Grade III) in his next race where he ran third behind fellow entrant Domestic Product but was bumped at the start. In his most recent race, he won the Florida Derby (Grade I) defeating fellow entrants Catalytic and Grand Mo the First.

In each of his three wins, Fierceness has gotten out to the front. John Velázquez, who has ridden this horse in each of his last three career starts is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.

This will be John Velázquez’s 26th mount in the Kentucky Derby. He has won the Kentucky Derby three times before. Last year, he finished fourth with Disarm.

Resilience broke his maiden in his fourth start, winning a $71,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park. In the following race, he competed in his first graded stakes race the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) where he finished fourth behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom. In his most recent race, he won the Wood Memorial Stakes (Grade II) at Aqueduct defeating fellow entrant Society Man.

In both of his wins, he has come from off the pace and closed on the field in the final few furlongs.

This will be Júnior Alvarado’s first mount on Resilience and 5th mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2016 where he finished fourth with Mohaymen.

Epic Ride broke his maiden in his second start, winning a $69,000 Maiden Special Weight at Turfway Park. After that, he handled the increase in distance well and won the Leonatus Stakes by four lengths. Following that, he ran second in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes as he was outkicked down the stretch. In his most recent race, he finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) at Keeneland behind fellow entrants Sierra Leone and Just a Touch.

In each of his two wins, Epic Ride has got out to the front. Adam Beschizza, who has ridden this horse in each race is familiar with him and I’m sure he will try to do the same in the Derby.

This will be Adam Beschizza’s 2nd mount in the Kentucky Derby. His best finish in the Derby was back in 2020 where he finished seventh with Enforceable.

Projected Pace:

Front Runners

• Track Phantom (#12)
• Just a Touch (#8)
• Dornoch (#1)
• Fierceness (#17)
• Dornoch (#1)
• Epic Ride (#21)

Off the Pace

• West Saratoga (#13)
• Catalytic (#5)
• Just Steel (#6)
• Stronghold (#18)
• Resilience (#19)
• Mystik Dan (#3)

Middle/ Back of the Pact

• Grand Mo the First (#16)
• Domestic Product (#15)
• Endlessly (#14)
• Society Man (#20)

Closers

• Honor Marie (#7)
• Sierra Leone (#2)
• Catching Freedom (#4)

Picks:

• $5 WIN – #4, CATCHING FREEDOM, #8 JUST A TOUCH, #19 RESILIENCE
  • TICKET COST $15.00

• $2 EXACTA – #4, #8, #19 / #4, #6, #7, #8, #11, #17, #19
  • TICKET COST $36.00

• $2 EXACTA – #6, #7 / #2, #3, #6, #7, #8, #11, #17
  • TICKET COST $24.00

• $2 EXACTA – #2 / #3, #4, #7, #8, #19
  • TICKET COST $10.00

TOTAL COST $90.00

Kentucky Oaks

The Kentucky Oaks is a prestigious Grade I stakes race for three-year-old fillies (young female horses) held annually on the day before the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Much like its counterpart, the Kentucky Derby, the Oaks is deeply ingrained in American horse racing culture and is often referred to as the “Run for the Lilies.”

Established in 1875, the Kentucky Oaks is a significant event in its own right, showcasing the talent and athleticism of young fillies. The race covers a distance of 1 1/8 miles (approximately 1.8 kilometers) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs.

Just like the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks has its own traditions, including the singing of “My Old Kentucky Home” and the presentation of a garland of lilies to the winning filly, in contrast to the garland of roses awarded in the Derby.

Race Information:

• Date: May 3rd, 2024
• Track: Churchill Downs
• Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
• Event Grade: Grade I
• Race: 11
• Post Time: 5:51 PM ET
• Length: 1 1/8 Mile
• Purse: $1,500,000
• Division: Fillies | Three Years Old
• Surface: Dirt
• Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13), Pick 3 (Oaks-old Forester Bourbon-derby), Daily Double (Oaks-derby), Super Hi-5

TV Schedule:

• NBC – 1:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET

Previous Winners:

• 2023: Pretty Mischievous
• 2022: Secret Oath
• 2021: Malathatt
• 2020: Shedaresthedevil
• 2019: Serengeti Empress
• 2018: Monomoy Girl

Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Oaks Records:

• Most Wins by a Trainer:
  • 5, Woody Stephens (1959, 1960, 1963, 1978, 1981)
  • 5, D. Wayne Lukas (1982, 1984, 1989, 1990, 2022)
• Most Wins by a Jockey:
  • 4, Eddie Arcaro (1951, 1952, 1953, 1958)
  • 4, Manuel Ycaza (1959, 1960, 1963, 1968)
• Most Wins by an Owner:
  • 6, Calumet Farm (1943, 1949, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1979)

Field:

Horse Preview:

Projected Pace:

Front Runners

• Into Champagne (#10)
• Fiona’s Magic (#7)
• Where’s My Ring (#3)

Off the Pace

• Regulatory Risk (#4)
• Ways and Means (#11)
• Just F Y I (#13)
• Thorpedo Anna (#5)
• Leslie’s Rose (#14)
• Tarifa (#8)

Middle/ Back of the Pact

• Lemon Muffin (#6)
• Gin Gin (#2)

Closers

• Everland (#9)
• Power Squeeze (#12)

Picks:

• $5 WIN – #3, WHERE’S MY RING, #5 THORPEDO ANNA, #11 WAYS AND MEANS
  • TICKET COST $15.00

• $2 EXACTA – #3, #5, #11 / #3, #5, #8, #11, #12, #13, #15
  • TICKET COST $36.00

TOTAL COST $55.00

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.