2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta – Preview & Picks

Congratulations to all those who had Hideki Matsuyama at The Genesis Invitational last week, witnessing his ninth victory in the past decade! Matsuyama has now achieved the highest number of PGA TOUR wins by an Asian-born player, surpassing K.J. Choi’s record of eight victories. In a remarkable feat, Matsuyama became the first player to enter the final round of a TOUR event trailing by six strokes or more and subsequently win by at least three strokes since Bubba Watson accomplished the feat at the 2018 Travelers Championship, where he trailed by 6 strokes but won by 3. The Sunday showdown was nothing short of thrilling, with five players tied at -14 for a significant duration. Matsuyama’s stellar performance on Sunday, carding an impressive 62, stood in stark contrast to Cantlay’s final-round performance, who, despite holding a two-shot lead heading into the day, could only manage a 70.

It was also great to see Will Zalatrois back in contention after recovering from back surgery. Initially slated to participate in this week’s event, he decided to withdraw from the Mexico Open after securing a tied second-place finish.

Tiger Woods had to end his 2024 season debut prematurely this week. He withdrew during the second round due to an illness. There was speculation that it might have been related to his ankle or back, especially since he had mentioned experiencing back spasms towards the end of the first round.

Jordan Spieth was disqualified from the event on Friday afternoon after signing an incorrect scorecard during Friday’s 2-over 73 round. According to the Tour, Spieth mistakenly signed for a three on the 4th hole when he actually made a four. This marks the second disqualification in the last four years for Spieth, the first occurring in a full-field PGA Tour event. Previously, he was disqualified from the JP McManus Pro-Am in 2023 for picking up his ball from the green before holing out. Additionally, at the Hero World Challenge in 2021, he narrowly avoided disqualification for playing from the wrong tees, instead receiving a rarely enforced two-shot penalty.

Betting-wise, we didn’t have a great week at all. The only bet we cashed was Jason Day Top 20 (+130). Our closest outright of the week was Sam Burns who finished tied for tenth.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Tony Finau is gearing up to defend his title at the Mexico Open this week. His only other appearance at Vidanta Vallarta saw him finish tied for second.

Cristobal Del Solar will be making his second appearance at the Mexico Open after missing the cut last year. Notably, he recently achieved a remarkable feat by shooting a 57 at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Astara Golf Championship, setting the record for the lowest round ever recorded in a PGA TOUR-sanctioned event.

Santiago De la Fuente, a senior at the University of Houston, secured victory at the 2024 Latin America Amateur Championship, earning himself starts at this year’s Masters, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship at Royal Troon. This marks his second appearance at the Mexico Open after missing the cut last year.

Fred Biondi is ready to make his PGA TOUR debut for the 2024 season in Mexico. The 2023 NCAA individual champion previously played his first PGA TOUR event as a pro at last year’s Fortinet Championship. Biondi has participated in four Korn Ferry Tour events this season and has made every cut. His standout performance was a tie for seventh at The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic at Sandals Emerald Bay.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 22nd, 2024 – February 25th, 2024
• Location: Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
• Course: The Norman Course at Vidanta Vallarta
• Course Type: Coastal
• Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,456 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Paspalum
• Fairways: Paspalum
• Rough: Paspalum 2″
• Bunkers: 106
• Water Hazard(s): 6 Lakes (In-Play on 13 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11-11.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,100,000 /$1,458,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 132 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death (18, 18, 17, 18)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 70.10 (-0.90), Rank 31 of 49
  • 2022: 70.32 (-0.68), Rank 24 of 50
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: -2
  • 2022: -1

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, February 22nd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM

• Round 2: Friday, February 23rd, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM

• Round 3: Saturday, February 24th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:30 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 AM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

• Round 4: Sunday, February 25th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:30 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 AM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Mostly Sunny 88 F, 8 mp/h WSW, 60% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 87 F, 8 mp/h SW, 52% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 84 F, 8 mp/h SW, 62% Humidity, 3% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 86 F, 9 mp/h WSW, 66% Humidity, 2% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The inaugural Mexican Open took place in 1944 at the Club de Golf Chapultepec. In 2022, it gained official status on the PGA Tour and relocated to Vidanta Vallarta. Notably, this year marks the first time the event will be held in February, with the previous two editions taking place in April (2023) and May (2022).

At Vidanta Vallarta, a resort boasting numerous courses, our attention is drawn to The Norman Signature Course. Crafted by Greg Norman in 2015, this course sits adjacent to the Pacific Ocean, offering stunning vistas and a unique experience. The Ameca River meanders through various holes, adding to its charm. An interesting tidbit about this venue is its unique access via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 4, Al Espinosa (1944, 1945, 1946, 1947)
• 72-Hole Record (Vidanta Vallarta):
  • 260, Tony Finau (2023)
• 18-Hole Record (Vidanta Vallarta):
  • 61, Jon Rahm (3rd round, 2023)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta, originally crafted by Greg Norman in 2015, presents golfers with a challenging Par 71 layout spanning 7,456 yards. Notably, it boasts a distinctive configuration featuring five Par 3s, nine Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

To adhere to PGA TOUR standards, the course underwent significant alterations. This included replacing the geotextile and sand in the 106 traps, with 1,760 tons of white silica sand sourced from Veracruz, Mexico. Additionally, the sand in the practice area’s traps was also replaced.

The course’s par rating was adjusted from Par 73 to Par 71. Notably, the 4th and 16th holes were reclassified from Par 5s to Par 4s. Furthermore, nine holes underwent lengthening, including holes 1 to 4 of the first round and holes 10, 12, 14, 16, and 18 of the second round. As a result of these modifications, the course’s total yardage increased by 169 yards, now measuring 7,456 yards compared to its previous length of 7,287 yards.

Regarding its length, the Norman Signature Course stands as one of the Tour’s lengthiest, ranking sixth out of 44 courses. Despite its length, the fairways offer ample room for play, ranking similarly in width. The rough, measuring a modest 2 inches, is less punitive, while the generous average green size of 7,000 square feet adds to the course’s playability. Notably, the abundance of bunkers, numbering 106, poses a significant challenge to players, ranking among the top two on Tour. Additionally, the prevailing winds from the Pacific Ocean contribute to the course’s defense, requiring strategic shot-making. The greens feature Paspalum grass, typical of coastal courses, providing a sticky surface that discourages bump-and-run shots around the greens.

The five Par 3’s range from 170 to 226 yards. Last year, No. 9 and No. 17 were the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.

No. 5, 208 yards, Par 3: “This first par 3 has a green protected entirely by traps, so it simulates an island-type green. The control of the spin will be very important to be able to attack the flag and get the long-awaited birdie.”

No. 9, 197 yards, Par 3: “With an elevated island-type transverse green with a lake in front and undulations on the surface of the green, it will allow players to get the best out of their control shots with medium irons, as well as the wind that, due to the height of the shot, will affect the flights of the ball from the start.”

There are nine Par 4’s at Vidanta Vallarta with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 10 (+0.417).

No. 3, 445 yards, Par 4: “Another of the new tees protected by desert on the right side and lake on the left side, plus some traps halfway through. But what’s really tricky about this hole is the crosswind you usually find on the shots to the green. When achieving the fairway, the second shot will have to be applied to the sensitivity of the player to control the distance due to the crosswind and the bounce on the green that is divided into two floors, interesting flag positions on a hole that requires total control from the tee of tee.”

No. 7, 297 yards, Par 4: “A hole known as “risk-reward”, where players will be able to reach the green without problems, but they will have to take care of the water on the left side and the sand traps on the right side of the green. Without a doubt, one of the holes where we can see many fireworks as it is the shortest par 4 of the 18 holes.”

No. 15, 459 yards, Par 4: “Penalty lake all along the left side of the fairway from tee off to the green and with a sand trap in the middle of the fairway reachable with the drive. The green is flat with no undulations and with sand traps protecting its right side.”

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 6, No. 12, No. 14, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. 

No. 12, 637 yards, Par 5: “A long par 5 that makes it difficult to reach the two-way green. The imposing parota tree protecting the second shot makes players concentrate on a placement shot to achieve a short third shot that allows them to get down a stroke to par of the hole.”

No. 18, 548 yards, Par 5: “A parota shaft protects the tee shot. In addition, a narrow fairway covered with sand traps on the left side and an O.B. on the right side make it a challenge off the tee. However, it gives you a chance to get on two strokes with a chance of ending your round with an eagle. In case it is played conservatively, the third shot to the green requires maximum precision to be able to place the third shot close to the hole and be able to close their round with birdie.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	Vidanta Vallarta
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.39	297.86
Driving Accuracy	62%	63%
GIR Percentage	66%	67%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.08	37.25
Scrambling Percentage	58%	58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.52

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Russell Knox (Total: +20.12, Per Round: +0.84)
    • Mark Hubbard (Total: +17.20, Per Round: +0.72)
    • Tony Finau (Total: +16.93, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Erik Van Rooyen (Total: +16.90, Per Round: +0.70)
    • Chez Reavie (Total: +15.89, Per Round: +0.66)

 

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Players will need to drive the ball well this week if they want to score.

• • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • MJ Daffue (Total: +21.03, Per Round: +0.88)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +19.53, Per Round: +0.81)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +17.19, Per Round: +0.72)
    • Cameron Champ (Total: +15.87, Per Round: +0.66)
    • Doug Ghim (Total: +15.30, Per Round: +0.64)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
  • The green complexes at Vidanta Vallarta are Paspalum.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Brandon Wu (Total: +14.42, Per Round: +1.80)
    • Davis Riley (Total: +9.41, Per Round: +2.35)
    • Ben Taylor (Total: +6.76, Per Round: +1.69)
    • Cameron Champ (Total: +8.84, Per Round: +1.10)
    • Patrick Rodgers  (Total: +8.36, Per Round: +1.04)

 

• Driving Distance Gained
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course Fit Tool, it’s a bomber’s paradise at Vidanta Vallarta this week. At nearly 7,500 yards this is one of the longest courses on Tour.

• • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Chris Gotterup (Total: +423.47, Per Round: +17.64)
    • Cameron Champ (Total: +398.97, Per Round: +16.62)
    • MJ Daffue (Total: +358.62, Per Round: +14.94)
    • Alejandro Tosti (Total: +323.33, Per Round: +14.70)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +352.62, Per Round: +14.69)

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2) / 200-225 Yards (x2) 
  • Four of the five Par 3’s at Vidanta Vallarta range between 175-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Chris Gotterup (Total: +7.66, Per Round: +0.32)
    • Tyson Alexander (Total: +6.10, Per Round: +0.25)
    • Nicolai Hojgaard (Total: +5.60, Per Round: +0.23)
    • Nicolas Echavarria (Total: +5.41, Per Round: +0.23)
    • Jimmy Walker (Total: +5.40, Per Round: +0.23)

• • Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Carson Young (Total: +9.91, Per Round: +0.41)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +9.02, Per Round: +0.38)
    • Greyson Sigg (Total: +7.43, Per Round: +0.31)
    • James Hahn (Total: +7.27, Per Round: +0.30)
    • Tom Whitney (Total: +5.42, Per Round: +0.36)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x4)
  • Four of the nine Par 4’s at Vidanta Vallarta range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +18.38, Per Round: +0.77)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +14.90, Per Round: +0.62)
    • Michael Kim (Total: +10.68, Per Round: +0.44)
    • Kyoung-Hoon Lee (Total: +9.43, Per Round: +0.39)
    • Charley Hoffman (Total: +8.89, Per Round: +0.37)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 5’s at Vidanta Vallarta range between 600-650 Yards. The two outliers are No. 14 which is listed at 585 Yards and No. 18 which is listed at 548 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Chan Kim (Total: +9.81, Per Round: +0.41)
    • MJ Daffue (Total: +9.39, Per Round: +0.39)
    • Kevin Chappell (Total: +8.26, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Justin Lower (Total: +7.56, Per Round: +0.32)
    • Omar Morales (Total: +3.26, Per Round: +0.81)

 

• Proximity Gained: 175-200/ 200+ Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 175-250+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average. These long approach shots also have an impact on the Average GIR Proximity to the Hole. For the average PGA Tour Event, it’s 29.08 feet but at Vidanta Vallarta the the Average GIR Proximity to the Hole is 37.25 feet.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 175-200 yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Greyson Sigg (Total: +366.28, Per Round: +15.26)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +346.15, Per Round: +14.42)
    • Austin Eckroat (Total: +328.67, Per Round: +13.69)
    • Michael Kim (Total: +227.34, Per Round: +9.47)
    • Tyson Alexander (Total: +225.49, Per Round: +9.40)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 200+ yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Carson Young (Total: +572.47, Per Round: +23.85)
    • Charley Hoffman (Total: +570.76, Per Round: +23.78)
    • J.J. Spaun (Total: +484.12, Per Round: +20.17)
    • MJ Daffue (Total: +437.88, Per Round: +18.24)
    • Davis Thompson (Total: +417.25, Per Round: +17.39)

 

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • The Mexico Open offers ample opportunities for birdies, emphasizing the importance of capitalizing on scoring chances throughout the tournament.
  • Leaders in Birdies or Better Gained in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Justin Suh (Total: +22.05, Per Round: +0.92)
    • Michael Kim (Total: +20.47, Per Round: +0.85)
    • Stephan Jaeger (Total: +17.14, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Thomas Detry (Total: +17.08, Per Round: +0.71)
    • Garrick Higgo (Total: +16.69, Per Round: +0.70)

 

• Sand Saves Gained
  • The Norman Signature course at Vidanta Vallarta boasts 106 bunkers, placing it among the PGA Tour’s courses with the most sand traps. With such a significant number of bunkers, players will inevitably encounter them during the tournament. Excelling in bunker play will be crucial for contenders aiming to stay competitive and contend for victory this week.
  • Leaders in Sand Saves Gained in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Nicolas Echavarria (Total: +6.94, Per Round: +0.29)
    • Yechun ‘Carl’ Yuan (Total: +6.89, Per Round: +0.29)
    • Jake Knapp (Total: +5.82, Per Round: +0.26)
    • Padraig Harrington (Total: +6.03, Per Round: +0.25)
    • Ben Silverman (Total: +5.24, Per Round: +0.22)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Reviewing the Data Golf Course History Tool, it’s evident that past performances may not consistently forecast future success at Vidanta Vallarta. Although the PGA Tour has featured this course only twice, some players have demonstrated consistent performances across consecutive years. While Data Golf suggests that course history might not be highly predictive, there are instances where certain players have showcased strong performances in back-to-back years, raising questions about the reliability of this assessment.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Tony Finau (2 Events – 66.00 Scoring Average)
    • Brandon Wu (2 Events – 66.63 Scoring Average)
    • Cameron Champ (2 Events – 67.50 Scoring Average)
    • Patrick Rodgers (2 Events – 67.75 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 132 players competing in this week’s tournament. Among them are five of the top sixty players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Tony Finau (+650) aims to repeat his success this week at Vidanta Vallarta as he defends his title. His stellar performance in this tournament includes a T2 finish in 2022. Since his triumph, Finau has yet to clinch another PGA TOUR victory. He has participated in six events this season, with his strongest showing being a T6 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. Last week, he concluded the Genesis Invitational at T19.

Nicolai Højgaard (+1600) kicked off his 2024 season with two appearances on the DP World Tour. He secured a T25 finish at the Dubai Invitational and followed it up with a commendable T7 performance at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. Transitioning to the PGA Tour, Højgaard made his debut at the Farmers Insurance Open, clinching a runner-up position. Subsequently, he achieved a T31 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and, most recently, a T29 finish at the Genesis Invitational last week. Notably, he participated in this event last year, concluding with a T33 finish.

Emiliano Grillo (+2000) delivered a strong performance at the Mexico Open last year, securing a T5 finish. In 2022, he closed the event at T33. Grillo has showcased solid form at the start of the 2024 season. He kicked off the year at Kapalua with a T43 finish and followed it up with consistent showings, landing inside the top 22 in the subsequent four tournaments. Last week, he concluded the Genesis Invitational at T44.

Taylor Pendrith (+2200) made his tournament debut last year, concluding at T30. In the current season, he has participated in three events. Pendrith initiated his season at Waialae with a T10 finish. However, he faced challenges at The American Express, failing to make the cut. He regained his form in his latest outing, securing a T9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Stephan Jaeger (+2200) is poised for his third outing at Vidanta Vallarta this week. In his inaugural appearance, he secured a commendable T15 finish, followed by another strong performance last year, finishing T18. His 2024 season kicked off on a positive note with a T18 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, he faced challenges at The American Express, ending with a T52 finish. Jaeger bounced back impressively with a remarkable T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. In his most recent tournament, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he concluded with a T71 finish, losing strokes in every category.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Tony Finau (’23)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alexander Bjork, Austin Wylie, Ben Sigel, Benjamin Silverman, Blaine Hale, Jr., Brandt Snedeker, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Chesson Hadley, Christopher Gotterup, Davis Thompson, Fred Biondi, Hayden Springer, J.J Spaun, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Justin Suh, Kevin Dougherty, KyoungHoon Lee, Mac Meissner, Mackenzie Hughes, Matt Atkins, Matthew NeSmith, Max Greyserman, Norman Xiong, Padraig Harrington, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Preston Stanley, Renato Naula, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Rodolfo Cazaubon, Ryan Brehm, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryan Palmer, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Stuart Macdonald, Thomas Detry, Thorbjorn Olesen, Trace Crowe, Victor Perez, Will Zalatoris, Wilson Furr

• Players with Mexico ties in the Field:

• • Birthplace:
    • Rodolfo Cazaubòn (Designated Sponsor’s Exemption)
    • Santiago De la Fuente (Sponsor’s Exemption – Unrestricted)
    • Roberto Díaz (Designated Sponsor’s Exemption)
    • Omar Morales (Sponsor’s Exemption – Unrestricted)
    • Alvaro Ortiz (Designated Sponsor’s Exemption)
    • Raul Oereda (Top 5 Finisher from PGA Tour Q-School)
    • Jose Antonio Safa (Sponsor’s Exemption – Unrestricted)
    • Sebastián Vázquez (Designated Sponsor’s Exemption)

 

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Will Gordon -> IN: Ryan Plamer (Alternate)
  • Will Zalatoris -> IN: MJ Daffue (Sponsor)

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 262.5/ -21.5 (-120/+100) – SportsBook

Since relocating to Vidanta Vallarta, the Mexico Open has witnessed a winning score below -21 only once. Tony Finau’s remarkable victory last year saw him finish with an impressive -24, setting a new record. In the previous year, Jon Rahm secured the title with a score of -17.

Although weather conditions can sometimes impact the tournament, this year’s forecast appears favorable. While wind can pose a challenge for players, the projected conditions suggest relatively calm weather. In 2022, wind gusts exceeding 25 mph during the first two rounds contributed to a challenging playing environment. Last year, conditions were similar to what is expected this week.

In terms of the field’s strength, this year’s event boasts the highest caliber of players seen in recent years. The field rating has steadily increased over the past three years, from 151.00 in 2022 to 180.47 this year, indicating a stronger and more competitive field.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

(Only using data from the 2022-23 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta)

			Mexico Open	Mexico Open
			Vidanta Vallarta	Vidanta Vallarta
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022
Tony Finau	2	66.00	WON	T2
Brandon Wu	2	66.63	3	T2
Cameron Champ	2	67.50	T8	T6
Patrick Rodgers	2	67.75	T10	10
Stephan Jaegar	2	68.38	T18	T15

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

(Only using data from the 2022-23 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta)

			Mexico Open	Mexico Open
			Vidanta Vallarta	Vidanta Vallarta
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022
Callum Tarren	2	71.17	MC	T61
Matt Wallace	2	71.33	MC	T67

 

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Tony Finau (-24)
  • Price: 8-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Tony Finau	2nd	2nd	8th	18th	8th

 

• 2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
  • Price: 5-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Jon Rahm	2nd	3rd	30th	22nd	18th

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Tony Finau
  • T31 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • T26 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
  • T17 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T19 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T24 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)

• 2022: Jon Rahm
  • T27 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T9 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T55 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T17 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • T21 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Tony Finau

	2022
Tony Finau	T2

 

2022: Jon Rahm

• Tournament Debut

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Stephan Jaegar (+2200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Stephan Jaeger is still pursuing his maiden PGA Tour victory. He kicked off the 2024 season impressively with a T18 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, he encountered difficulties in his subsequent outing, settling for a T52 finish at The American Express. Jaeger bounced back strongly at the Farmers Insurance Open, securing a remarkable T3 finish, marking his best performance on the PGA Tour to date. Nevertheless, his most recent appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am saw him struggle across all aspects of his game, finishing T71.

Heading into his third appearance at Vidanta Vallarta, Jaeger’s previous showings indicate a promising trajectory. He finished T15 in his tournament debut and followed up with a T18 finish last year.

Jaeger’s advantage this week lies in his impressive distance off the tee, ranking 14th on the PGA TOUR this season in Driving Distance with an average of 305.7 yards. Moreover, over the last 24 rounds, Jaeger has consistently performed well, ranking inside the top 20 in SG: Tee to Green, SG: Off the Tee, and SG: Ball Striking compared to the field. He also stands third in Birdies or Better Gained. With a blend of promising course history and a game showing positive signs, Jaeger appears primed to clinch his inaugural PGA Tour victory.

 

• Taylor Pendrith (+2800) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

Taylor Pendrith made his tournament debut last year, finishing T30. During the Fall Swing, he showcased his abilities with a T15 finish at El Cardonal at Diamante, a course comparable to this week’s venue, which hosts the World Wide Technology Championship.

In the early stages of the 2024 season, Pendrith demonstrated his potential with a strong performance at Kapalua, finishing tied for 10th. However, he faced challenges at The American Express, missing the cut. Nonetheless, he bounced back in his most recent start, securing a T9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Pendrith’s notable attribute is his exceptional distance off the tee, which should be advantageous this week. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks impressively compared to the field: 3rd in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in SG: Ball Striking, 11th in SG: Approach, and 16th in SG: Off the Tee. Additionally, he performs well in Sand Saves Gained and Birdies or Better Gained. While his performance last year may not have matched his current level, Pendrith’s overall game suits this course. With some success on the greens, he stands a good chance of contending this week.

 

• Davis Thompson (+3500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Davis Thompson kicked off the year at Waialae Country Club, securing a T57 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He followed up with a T21 finish at The American Express but faced a setback with a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. However, he rebounded strongly in his most recent start, finishing T15 at the WM Phoenix Open.

This marks Thompson’s debut at Vidanta Vallarta, although he showcased his skills at El Cardonal at Diamante, a course comparable to this week’s venue, where he finished T15 in the World Wide Technology Championship.

While currently ranking 50th in Driving Distance this season, Thompson has demonstrated an increase in yardage over the field in his last three events. In the last 24 rounds, he impresses compared to the field, ranking 10th in SG: Approach, 14th in SG: Ball Striking, and 20th in SG: Tee to Green. Notably, he excels as a long iron player, ranking 3rd in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards among the field.

 

• Erik van Rooyen (+3500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Erik van Rooyen kicked off his 2024 PGA Tour season with a solid T22 finish at The Sentry. However, he faced some struggles at Waialae Country Club, finishing T52. He quickly regained his form with impressive performances, securing T25 at The American Express and T20 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, he encountered difficulties in his most recent outing, missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open.

This marks Van Rooyen’s second appearance at Vidanta Vallarta after his T33 finish last year. Notably, he clinched victory at the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante, a course comparable to this week’s venue.

In his last 24 rounds, van Rooyen has showcased remarkable stats, ranking 1st in SG: Ball Striking, 3rd in SG: Approach, 7th in SG: Tee to Green, and 8th in SG: Off the Tee. Additionally, he performs well in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards, and Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 Yards, adding to his strengths on the course.

 

• Jhonattan Vegas (+6600) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units

The 39-year-old Venezuelan golfer is vying for his fourth career PGA Tour victory in this week’s tournament. His most recent triumph dates back to 2017 at the RBC Canadian Open. Unfortunately, Vegas had to curtail his 2023 season due to an elbow injury, but he has made a strong comeback in 2024. Despite a rocky start with three missed cuts in his first three starts of the season, he showed improvement in his latest outing, finishing T22 at the WM Phoenix Open.

Vegas has historically excelled on coastal courses, boasting top-10 finishes at the Corales Puntacana Championship, Puerto Rico Open, and Mayakoba Golf Classic. However, his appearance at Vidanta Vallarta marks a debut for him on this particular course.

Over his last 24 rounds, Vegas impressively ranks 2nd in SG: Off the Tee, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 8th in SG: Tee to Green, and 23rd in SG: Approach. His proficiency off the tee grants him a notable advantage this week. Additionally, he shines in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards, ranking 5th, and in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards, where he secures the 2nd position.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.25 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Doug Ghim (+175) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.75 Units

After a rocky start to the 2024 season, missing the cut in his initial two events, Ghim has staged a notable comeback in his recent outings. At the Farmers Insurance Open, he secured a T13 finish, followed by an impressive T12 finish at the WM Phoenix Open.

This marks Ghim’s third appearance at Vidanta Vallarta. In 2022, he finished T33, but he faced a setback last year, missing the cut. Notably, during his struggle last year, he had also missed the cut in two of the three preceding events leading into the Mexico Open. However, Ghim has showcased his prowess at comparable courses, securing a T16 finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T15 finish at the World Wide Technology Championship.

Over his last 24 rounds, Ghim stands out, ranking 1st in SG: Tee to Green, 3rd in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in SG: Off the Tee, and 10th in SG: Approach. While he may not be the longest hitter off the tee, his proficiency with long irons compensates for it. Although Ghim has encountered putting challenges in the past, he has displayed improvement, gaining strokes on the green in his last two events. With his game trending positively and considering his previous successes on coastal courses, Ghim appears well-positioned for success this week.

 

• Samuel Stevens (+250) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 2.50 Units

Stevens had a promising rookie season last year, often coming close to clinching a victory. His standout performance occurred at the Valero Texas Open, a Greg Norman-designed course, where he secured a runner-up spot behind Corey Conners. This year, he’s kicked off the season on a stronger note compared to last year. To start the 2024 season, he finished T24 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He followed that up placing T65 at The American Express and T43 at the Farmers Insurance Open. In his most recent start, he finished T28 at the WM Phoenix Open.

Sam Stevens will be making his tournament debut this week. Notably, he has fared well on other coastal courses in the past, securing a T3 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T15 at the Puerto Rico Open.

Stevens possesses the necessary distance off the tee to contend this week. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 9th in SG: Tee to Green, 18th in SG: Off the Tee, 22nd in SG: Putting, and 37th in SG: Ball Striking. His overall game displays greater consistency this year compared to last. With his affinity for coastal courses and recent strong form, he’s poised for a solid performance this week.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Carson Young (+110) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Carson Young’s 2024 season began with a hiccup, missing the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, he quickly rebounded at The American Express, securing a T17 finish. In his most recent starts, he finished T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T41 at the WM Phoenix Open.

This marks Young’s second appearance at Vidanta Vallarta, where he finished T15 last season. He has also demonstrated proficiency on other coastal courses, achieving a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open and a 9th place finish at the World Wide Technology Championship.

While Young may not match the longest hitters off the tee this week, his approach play compensates for it. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 9th in SG: Ball Striking and 17th in SG: Approach. Additionally, he excels with long irons, ranking 1st in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards and 20th in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards. With his game trending positively and a history of success on coastal courses, he appears well-positioned for a strong showing this week.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Unit

 

Picks (Top Canadian):

• Taylor Pendrith (+125) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

I mentioned Pendrith earlier as one of my outright picks, but let’s analyze the rest of the field for the Top Canadian spot this week.

Mackenzie Hughes (+240) has had a decent start to the 2024 season. He secured a T25 at The Sentry, followed by a T64 at the Farmers, and a T71 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Last week at The Genesis Invitational, he finished T31. However, in his recent outings, he’s faced challenges with his irons and accuracy. Unlike Pendrith, he’s not known for his long drives off the tee, which could slightly hinder his performance. Despite a solid showing at the World Wide Technology Championship this season, his recent form suggests he might not outshine Pendrith here.

Ben Silverman (+600) kicked off the season with a strong T18 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, he missed the cut at The American Express and managed a T56 in his most recent start. With no prior experience at Vidanta Vallarta, it’s hard to gauge his performance. Although his approach play has been commendable in recent events, struggles on and around the green might hold him back. Additionally, his shorter driving distance could pose a challenge this week.

Roger Sloan (+650) faced early exits at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open in his first two starts of the 2024 season. He previously participated in this event once in 2022, where he missed the cut.

Stuart Macdonald (+1000) secured a spot in this event through the Open Qualifier. In his latest recorded outing, he finished T102 at the PGA Tour Q-School. While he’s played in two PGA Events before, his performance at this level hasn’t been remarkable. Although he’s a Mackenzie Tour (PGA TOUR Canada) regular and has recent victories under his belt, he might struggle to contend this week.

Total Risk on Top Canadian: 1.00 Unit

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the Mexico Open: 5.25 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.