We have arrived at the first few days of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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NFC West
2023 Records
San Francisco 12-5/ Los Angeles Rams 10-7/ Seattle 9-8/ Arizona 4-13
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers cruised to another division title in 2023, but once again came up short where it matters in the playoffs. The QB question has been answered and they return all 11 starters on offense for a unit that put up the second most yards in the NFL last season. Brock Purdy should continue to develop and he has plenty of weapons with four 1,000 yard producers in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. They also used their first round pick on a receiver Ricky Pearsall to give Purdy another potential top level talent.
On defense they fired first year coordinator Steve Wilks despite allowing the third fewest points in the NFL. This was a step back from the top unit in the league in 2022. They promoted from within hiring Nick Sorensen, but also brought in Brandon Staley to assist him. At least Staley won’t be making important 4th down decisions for the offense. They lost a good chunk of the defensive line, but brought in Leonard Floyd and his sack prowess to help Joey Bosa. At linebacker they hope to have Dre Greenlaw back from his Super Bowl Achilles injury, but this unit should be good as well in 2024. The Secondary I think got better adding Isaac Yiadom to a talented top duo on the outside and they will get back safety Talonoa Hufanga from an ACL.
The division should be better overall this year, but the 49ers should still glide to a third straight NFC West title. Can they get over the playoff hump is the question.
Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced Under -135, Over +105
Los Angeles Rams
I was one of the few industry folk who were on the Rams to bounce back following their Super Bowl hangover season nailing the Over 6.5 Wins with ease. On offense Matthew Stafford continued to age gracefully and found solace in his new weapon Puca Nacua when veteran Cooper Kupp was injured. He will be without Tyler Higbee as his safety valve for a bit while he recovers from a playoff knee injury. Kyren Williams had a breakout campaign in 2023 and will get to run behind an improved offensive line this season as they added Pro Bowl Guard Jonah Jackson.
Defensively they lose All-Time great Aaron Donald to retirement and will have a big hole to fill on the line and in the locker room. The Rams chose to invest heavily in the pass rush to start the process drafting Florida State duo Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to bolster the line in the first two rounds. They join DT Kobie Turner who was runner-up for defensive rookie of the year. LB Earnest Jones also played a prominent roll in impact plays in 2023, the question for both him and Turner is how much of that was because of all the attention Donald garnered. The secondary also took a hit losing captain safety Jordan Fuller. The final major loss was DC Raheem Morris heading to coach Atlanta.
As long as Stafford stays healthy they should put up points with Sean McVay pulling the strings and be competitive. Even if he doesn’t Jimmy G is there as a backup now so the drop-off won’t be as large. Hard to see another step forward to challenge San Fran with a more depleted defense however.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll is gone. Geno Smith is back. Geno will look to get back to his 2022 numbers and will have the receiving core to do it with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his disposal. They have a solid running back duo of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet who will run behind a much healthier offensive line to start than what they saw most of last year. Abraham Lucas missed 11 games and Charles Cross missed some time as well. They drafted Christian Haynes in the third round however to be their starter at Right Guard replacing departed Damien Lewis who was a solid four year starter for the Seahawks.
The defense was a mess last year at 30th in EPA. They should be much better in 2024. They extended deadline addition Leonard Williams and made DT their priority in the first round of the draft grabbing Byron Murphy who I had graded much higher than 16th overall. They also snagged Jonathan Hankins in Free Agency. Add the additions to linebackers Darrell Taylor and Baye Mafe and I could see Seattle having one of the best pass rushing units in the league. The secondary is led by elite second year corner Devon Witherspoon and Safety Julian Love and should be one of the best units in football here as well. The only major question will be in the middle at Linebacker as they lose leading tackler and All-Pro Bobby Wagner.
The question marks for Seattle are at QB and the new coaches. Mike McDonald takes over and is bringing in a College Coach former Washington Huskies coordinator Ryan Grubb to call plays. I don’t know if this translates to the NFL, but only time will tell. If Pete Carroll were still here I would probably have more faith in the SeaTurkeys.
Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Over -140, Under +110
Arizona Cardinals
Can a healthy Kyler Murray make a difference for the Cardinals and get them back to the playoffs in 2024? Maybe. Murray is entering his sixth NFL season, and I haven’t seen enough out of his arm when he has been healthy to make me a believer. He still has amazing athleticism and will need all of it to make them a contender. They did get him some help at receiver drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. Adding him to Michael Wilson and Trey McBride give him lots of options to throw to. The running game returns James Connor and the Cards were 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per game last year. I like the upgrade on the OL with the addition of tackle Jonah Williams from the Bengals.
The defense is the major issue of concern checking in at 31st in points allowed in 2023. They spent plenty of money in the off-season to upgrade it bringing in Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols on the interior of the line, linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting. First round pick Darius Robinson could be a big havoc maker behind the line of scrimmage. Kyzir White anchors the linebacker group and should pair well with Wilson. Budah Baker and Jalen Thompson are elite at safety and they will be joined in the secondary by second round pick Max Melton and Murphy-Bunting.
This team is a wild card for me. Not being sold on Murray and at least six new starters on defense are the question marks. That being said they could certainly surprise some and challenge for a playoff spot if things go right.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -175, Under +145
2024 NFC West Predictions:
San Francisco 49ers 11-6
Los Angeles Rams 9-8
Seattle Seahawks 8-9
Arizona Cardinals 7-10
NFC West Action:
San Francisco 49ers – No Action. Tough Schedule with KC, Dallas and Tampa as the variable games, and they travel to Buffalo and Miami. They’ll be good, but they’re gonna lose some games.
Los Angeles Rams – Lean Over. I think the defense will find a way without Donald, but that AFC East/NFC North cross division combo is brutal for all these teams.
Seattle Seahawks – No Action. I think this could go either way with the new coaches and I am not touching it.
Arizona Cardinals – Lean Over, I like the defensive overhaul and the offensive weapons, but at -175 I just don’t trust Kyler Murray enough to pull the trigger. I don’t hate the +275 to make the playoffs though if you want a flyer in this division.
