We have arrived at the first few days of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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NFC North
2023 Records
Detroit 12-5/ Green Bay 9-8/ Minnesota 7-10/ Chicago 7-10
Detroit Lions
It took 30 years, but the Lions finally claimed a NFC North division title. Well I guess it was only 21 years because the 9 year division drought before that was in the NFC Central. The question for 2024 will be if the Lions can make that first ever trip to the Super Bowl. The offense should continue to be in a good spot as they return OC Ben Johnson who turned down Head coach positions this off-season. Jared Goff had a career high in completion percentage and threw for 30 touchdowns in 2023. He should continue to excel in this offense. They have a two-headed monster at running back with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs who combined to be the first duo in NFL history to run for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns each in the same season. Two of the main three targets at receiver return with Amon-Ra St. Brown signing an extension and Sam La Porta. Josh Reynolds departs. The offensive line returns two Pro Bowlers already and adds veteran Pro Bowl Guard Kevin Zeitler.
The defense was much improved in 2023, but still has some work to do to really solidify this group as a Super Bowl favorite this season. The secondary is the major area of concern where they were 31st is passing yards and 25th in defensive passing EPA. They traded for CB Carlton Davis to be their top cover man and used their top two draft picks on corner as well. They really got burned at safety as well allowing 69 pass plays of 20+ yards. Up front they signed Marcus Davenport to go opposite Aidan Hutchinson and D.J Reader a run first DT. All Three starting LBs will be back and they were a top half unit in 2023 and should only get better with Jack Campbell now in his second season.
This is a two team race in this division still, but I think the Lions are the King of The North. They should be a Super Bowl favorite as well if that secondary can right itself.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -125, Under -105
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were better than most thought in 2023 thanks to the emergence of now Franchise QB Jordan Love. They closed the season on a 7-3 run and then blasted the Cowboys in the playoffs before falling to the 49ers in San Francisco after leading early. Love had something click for him half way through the season. His final eight games produced 18 Touchdowns and just one interception to pair with a 70.3% completion percentage. He certainly became more comfortable with his offense and his young receiving group. The core four of those pass catchers will all be back in 2024. They do swap Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs at RB and I think that is a down-grade as Jones is much more versatile in the passing game. On the offensive line David Bakhtiari is gone, but he’s been basically injured since COVID hit. They have also moved on from Jon Runyan. They did take OT Jordan Morgan in the first round of the draft to help, but the OL is likely to be a down-grade in 2024.
Much like the Lions the Packers issues aren’t on the offensive side of the ball, but on the defensive side. The Packers move on to yet another defensive coordinator with Jeff Hafley coming on board from Boston College. They will switch from Green Bay’s long standing 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme. The defensive line will be solid anchored by DT Kenny Clark and EDGE Rashan Gary. They are looking for a big step forward from the other two former First rounders on the line Devonte Wyatt and Luke Van Ness. Linebacker is a weak spot as they invested two high draft picks on it this year and hope Quay Walker figures things out. In the secondary they have lots of questions outside of free agent signing safety Xavier McKinney. CB Jaire Alexander has been solid when healthy, but he also has been a locker room issue. Eric Stokes hasn’t been able to stay healthy on his opposite side. The other safety spot will be a big open competition as the Pack drafted three safeties.
I think the Pack aren’t as talented as the Lions, but I think Matt LaFleur is a much better coach than Dan Campbell. If they can get better defensive play under Hafley’s guidance this team will be a force.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -135, Under +105
Chicago Bears
For those of you not aware, Kiev who runs the website here at TheOddsbreakers.com is a Bears fan. I am a Packers fan. Even with yet another first round QB coming into the fold in Chicago (Third now since 2017) I think I am going to watch the Packers demolish the Bears yet again this season. Now back to the regularly scheduled program of Caleb Williams arriving in Chicago, who I believe is going to be the real deal. Anyone who has watched his college games can clearly see he has the skills and moxie to compete at an NFL level. The only thing holding him back will be between his ears as his emotions have come out some in key moments. He comes into a great situation with veteran receivers D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen to help him get his feet wet. They also drafted WR Rome Odunze in the first round who led the nation in yards at Washington. They signed D’Andre Swift to upgrade the running back spot and still have Cole Kmet rocking the TE position. All in all plenty of weapons for Caleb Williams to start with. The offensive line is kind of an unknown even though they return four starters. The rushing stats in Chicago were elevated due to Justin Fields propensity to run. The sack totals weren’t great for the group finishing 25th in sacks allowed, but some of those may also be attributed to Fields throwing ability.
On defense they were much improved compared to 2022 finishing first against the run. Montez Sweat coming over mid-season was a huge improvement for them. He also became the first person to ever lead two different teams in sacks in the same season. The rest of the front four were uninspiring and losing Justin Jones will hurt, but the linebacking core is elite led by T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edwards. Jaylon Johnson champions a secondary that while improved is still below average. They hope adding safeties Jonathan Owens and Kevin Byard will help with that.
There is a real chance Caleb Williams is C.J. Stroud 2.0 with the array of pieces he has around him, but he is still a rookie QB in the NFL. For every Dak, Big Ben or Andrew Luck there are plenty more Trevor Lawrence, Peyton Manning, Bryce Young or Sam Darnold’s out there. I think the talent level of the Bears is middling overall so I see this being an improved if still flawed team.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -155, Under +125
Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of Sam Darnold, when will J.J. McCarthy become the starter in Minnesota. Looking at this murderer’s row of a schedule to start after Week 1, I am going to say when they are 1-6 and getting ready to host the Indianapolis Colts. This team was 3-6 last season without Kirk Cousins and I think they have gone backwards in the talent department. From a pass catcher perspective there are plenty of options with Justin Jefferson leading the way. When you also boast Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson there are match-up issues all over the field for opposing defenses. That being said T.J.H. is coming off an ACL injury and won’t be back right away (Maybe Mid-October) and the other receivers are below average at best. Their OL is decent at tackle, but have three of the worst starters returning on the interior. New RB Aaron Jones will try and run behind this below average OL, but I find it more likely that Sam Darnold is running for his life, than Jones is running downfield.
On defense the line takes a step back losing Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum on the edges. They will need to hope first round pick Dallas Turner is a success and Jonthan Greenard can repeat his 2023 performance in Houston. The interior of the line is messy, and likely to be exploited by hard-nosed downhill rushing teams. I like the Blake Cashman signing at linebacker, but the unit is still below average and they lost their best player in Jordan Hicks. In the secondary Shaquill Griffin is past his prime, but will start on one corner and five others will vie for the other outside and nickel positions. Safety is more secure with veteran Harrison Smith, but at 35 he has slowed a few steps. I like what Brian Flores did with this unit last year to keep them in games, but he will really have to work his magic to improve with the talent losses they sustained in the off-season.
It will take a miracle to get to the playoffs, and I am very much in the camp that this will be a rebuilding year for the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy getting a look mid-season.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -175, Under +145
2024 NFC North Predictions:
Detroit Lions 12-5
Green Bay Packers 11-6
Chicago Bears 8-9
Minnesota Vikings 3-14
NFC West Action:
Detroit Lions – No Action. The NFC North gets the NFC West and the AFC South, neither of which is elite, I think the Lions take full advantage, but this number seems fair. Plus they are one Jared Goff injury away from disaster.
Green Bay Packers – Lean Over. I am not betting this one, but it’s a strong lean. My head to head game analysis says 11 wins. My look at the schedule and a rough at large group of Philly, Miami and New Orleans tells me to maybe hold my horses a little bit. If they can get the opening win against Philly in Brazil the rest of their opening schedule isn’t that strong. I could see them being 7-2 or 8-1 before their first tilt with the Lions. be good candidates for a Mid-season under.
Chicago Bears – No Action. They have a really nice 4th place at-large schedule of Carolina, Washington and New England. I’m Not betting on a rookie QB to rattle off 9 wins though.
Minnesota Vikings – Under 6.5 Wins +145, 1.5 Units. My first official play is fading Sam Darnold and a team with a defense in flux. Their at-large opponents are the Giants, Jets and Falcons. Two of those teams obviously get a big upgrade at QB from 2023. The only way they win seven games is to be in plenty of shoot-outs and I like my chances of whoever is under center on another team putting up more offense than Sam Darnold. Plus I think there is some solid opportunity to get a decent middle (Especially at +145) going with a mid-season bet. The schedule to start off with for the Vikings is @NYG, vs SF, vs HOU, @GB, vs NYJ, VS DET, @LAR. I’d be shocked if they are above 2-5 at that point and more likely 1-6. Good mid-year spot to bet the over before the easier part of the schedule arrives.
