We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC East
2023 Records
Dallas 12-5/ Philadelphia 11-6/ New York Giants 6-11/ Washington 4-13
Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties for the Cowboys in 2023 and Dak Prescott responded with his best season ever as he led the league in touchdown passes. Alas it was all for not as the Boys fell at home in the playoffs to the Packers. They also lost a lot of talent from their roster and did not replace it in free agency mostly filling holes in the draft. Tony Pollard is gone, and they bring back Ezekiel Elliot to replace him, but Zeke wasn’t productive last season in New England. I expect Ceedee Lamb to be back, but he is still holding out. Brandin Cooks is a solid number two and Jake Ferguson is a huge safety blanket for Dak. The line is in flux as they will replace both Left Tackle and Center this season and it will likely be the biggest issue on offense.
The defense is still anchored around Micah Parsons and his ability to get to the QB and disrupt plays. They add Eric Kendricks and have a top 5 LB core for sure. They got a little smaller on the DL, but I think with Mike Zimmer coming in he had that as part of his plan. Trevon Diggs and Laron Bland will anchor the outside at corner. Both are feast or famine players causing big turnovers, but also giving up some big plays when taking chances.
I could see both the offense and the defense taking a step back this season especially in the trenches, but I still think there is enough talent on this roster to become the first NFC East repeat champion since 2004. This is likely a make it or break it year for Dak, McCarthy, and maybe even Jerry Jones?
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are now the favorites to win the NFC East. They collapsed down the stretch last season especially on the defensive side of the ball. They brought in Vic Fangio to run the defense after one season in Miami so he could be closer to home. I think this is a great move for Philly. The offense however will only go as far as Jalen Hurts takes them. He certainly pressed more in 2023 in the passing game and must slow things down a little bit. Kellen Moore comes i as the new OC, and has experience using a mobile QB from his days in Dallas with Dak. They add a big offensive weapon if he can stay healthy in Saquon Barkley. They extended A.J. Brown and still have top tier #2 Devonta Smith so the offensive firepower is not in question. The OL loses Jason Kelce, but has one of the top pair of tackles in the league and should still be solid.
The defense was and still is the question for the birds who ended last season with just a +5 Point differential despite putting up 433 points. Fangio can do some things, but they have yet to replace the production they lost on the line in 2023 and even took another step back trading Haason Reddick and losing Fletcher Cox to retirement. The linebacker core was weak and I don’t think adding Devon White will change that. The only area of improvement should be in the secondary where they drafted Quinyan Marshall and Cooper DeJean.
This team has the easier schedule than the Cowboys and that could be the difference in the division, but I still think Dallas is the team to beat here.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Washington Commanders
New Owners bring in a new GM, Head Coach and Quarterback to kick off their first full season. Dan Quinn replaces Ron Rivera, but the most interesting part was that most of their free agents were brought in on one year deals. They realized they are still rebuilding and need some talent from the draft and a competent QB to compete before they invest heavily in marquee free agents. Jaylon Daniels lands in a great situation With OC and QB guru Kliff Kingsbury. While he didn’t have success in AZ, I believe he will be a perfect fit with Daniels skill set. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson will be his primary threats. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are solid options behind him as well. Tight End got solidified with Zach Ertz and second round pick Ben Sinnott. The OL was awful in 2023, but should be better with signing Tyler Biadasz and Nick Allegretti to contracts.
While they didn’t dish out a lot of long-term deals, they got some guys in free agency on defense in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu that make this linebacker core while a little older one of the sturdiest looking on paper. The DL is strong on the inside, but weaker at DE. The secondary is a weakness, but I love the pick of CB Mike Sainristil who will likely start at nickel back.
Both the Commanders and Giants are going to be bottom of the barrel in 2024, but the prospects for Washington to improve quickly are certainly better than up the road in New York.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
New York Giants
Paying Daniel Jones was wrong. There was nothing in 2022 that said he should get paid other than a fluky Win/Loss record. The Giants front office is going to pay for it now, and it is possible they don’t survive past year 3 of their tenure. They replaced Saquon Barkley with Devin Singletary, which I don’t hate. The need top draft pick Malik Nabers to be elite for Jones to have a shot at any growth. The OL adds Jon Runyan and two other free agent pieces, but still shapes up as below average in my book. Only 266 points scored in 2023 is miserable. I don’t think it gets much better here in 2024.
Losing DC Wink Martindale after infighting with Daboll isn’t going to endear Daboll more to the team. Wink was well liked by players. They did make one big off-season splash grabbing DL Brian Burns. He adds to a strong pass rush and front seven with second year player Kayvon Thibodeaux and DT Dexter Lawrence. This group will need to get pressure on the QB with just 4 as the secondary lost top safety Xavier McKinney and is likely rolling at least two rookies out on the field to start.
It will need to be a big turnaround on offense for Jones and company or this team could end up being near the bottom of the league in points scored. And if you are bottom of league in points scored, you’re likely gonna be bottom of the league in wins.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under -155, Over +125
2024 NFC East Predictions:
Dallas Cowboys 12-5
Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
Washington Commanders 6-11
New York Giants 6-11
NFC East Action:
Dallas Cowboys – Over 9.5 Wins -145 .5 Units, Dallas to Win NFC East +170 .5 Units. Originally this was lean over for me when it was at 10.5, but dropping to 9.5 and getting almost 2 to 1 on the division I decided to split up a unit and stick a few bucks on the Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles – No Action. I still don’t trust the defense enough, but I can’t see them losing 9 either.
Washington Commanders – No Action. I think they brought in enough pieces to win some games. Second half schedule is much harder than the first half so there could be some in season under action available here.
New York Giants – Lean Under. I came up with six wins for them on my schedule still, but it just feels like they could see the wheels come flying of the bus very quickly. Schedule gets tough weeks 3-7 and again following their bye weeks 12-16, so I will likely see where they are before the start of Week 3 and decide if I want to pull the trigger on an under.
