We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC West
2023 Records
Kansas City 11-6/ Las Vegas 8-9/ Denver 8-9/ Los Angeles Chargers 5-12
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs became back to back Super Bowl Champs last season, and have been in the big game four times in the last five seasons. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are an elite combo. Still their offense took a step back last season without a deep play threat to stretch the field. They fixed that well this off-season grabbing speedster Marquis Brown in Free Agency and picking the fastest receiver in the draft Xavier Worthy in Round 1. They should open up the middle of the field more for Travis Kelce who will look to return to form after falling short of 1,000 yards in 2023. Isaiah Pacheco and CEH will again anchor a solid backfield. The interior of the OL is the the strength with the only question mark being who will watch Mahomes’ blind side at LT.
On defense Chris Jones anchors the DL on the inside. George Karlaftis took a big step forward in 2023 and looks to be a league leader in sacks this season. They lose Willy Gay in the linebacking core which hurts. They also lose L’Jarious Sneed and Mike Edwards in the secondary. Justin Reid is solid at safety, but the back 7 on this defense are going to be a work in progess to start the season, and I anticipate them taking a step back in 2024 and forcing the offense to win some shootout type games for them.
Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
Los Angeles Chargers
Like him or not, Jim Harbaugh seemingly wins wherever he goes. I don’t think Los Angeles will be any different. Justin Herbert is an elite QB and pairing him with Harbaugh should prove dangerous to the Chiefs reign in the division. There were some salary cap issues this off-season and they lost Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams plus they traded away Keenan Allen. I do love the running back replacements in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Joshua Palmer will be the new primary receiving threat and they will need to see last years top pick Quentin Johnson figure things out this season. They add Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst at tight end, both elite blocking tight ends to help bolster the running game. The left side of the OL is as good as they come with Reshawn Johnson and Zion Slater. Rookie tackle Joe Alt will anchor the right side of the line. I look for Harbaugh to really lean into the running game in his first season at the helm.
Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack both took paycuts to help with the salary cap, and they will lead a solid DL. Poona Ford and Bud Dupree both sign and should help the group as well. Both starting inside linebackers are gone. They hope rookie Junior Colson can make a name for himself there. The secondary is also weak with safety Derwin James being the only real player of note. Asante Samuel leads the group of corners, but there is a lot of uncertainty across the board at CB.
I could see Harbaugh getting this team on track right away on offense, but the defense could be a problem again for this team in 2024.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders biggest question is if Gardnew Minshew or Aidan O’Connell can be good enough to raise this team up to a playoff berth. My magic eight ball says signs point to no. Antonio Pierce got the interim tagged remove after replacing the fired Josh McDaniels, and he’ll need new OC Luke Getsy to work some magic to keep that job for more than a few seasons. This team does have some studs including receiver Davonte Adams. He’s joined by Jakobi Myers. Drafting TE Brock Bowers to pair with those two should create some major match-up issues. RB Zamir White looked great in his small audition last year as the top backfield option. He will run behind a solid left side of the line, but there will be new pieces at RG and RT.
The defense is led by Maxx Crosby and is the reason they were competitive last year. Signing Christian Wilkins at DT will be a huge addition and give them a big time player inside. Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo are both elite players at LB. Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs form a solid CB duo, and they return both starting safeties. I think there is plenty of reason to believe this could be a top5 defense in 2024.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -135, Under +105
Denver Broncos
The Russell Wilson era is over, and the Bo Nix era will begin. I am high on Bo Nix as a future solid playcaller in the NFL, but I think he will run into the same issues as Wilson which is a lack of weapons and little defensive support. This will be a rebuilding year for Sean Payton, and I think 2025 will be the prove it year. Javonte Williams didn’t look the same at RB after returning from his ACL injury. The receiving core traded away Jerry Jeudy and will have Cortland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., and Josh Reynolds which isn’t going to strike fear into a lot of opposing defenses. The OL will replace the center, but is the most solid position group on offense.
The defense was a disaster, and is likely now worse after cutting all-pro safety Justin Simmons. Pat Surtain will anchor the rest of the secondary looking to take away one half of the field. The DL was awful last season as this team was 30th in rushing defense. The LB core loses leader Josey Jewell, but brings in Cody Barton. Look for this defense to continue to struggle unless they get takeaways.
Vegas Win Projection: 5.5 Juiced Under -120, Over -110
2024 AFC West Predictions:
Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
Las Vegas Raiders 7-10
Denver Broncos 4-13
AFC West Action:
Kansas City Chiefs – Strong Lean Under. I might still pull the trigger on the under here. They have a tough at large schedule @SF, @Buffalo, vs Houston. The defense is going to be leaky.
Los Angeles Chargers – No Action. – I like this team, but the defense will be soft. They do have a really easy schedule so I think there’s some thought to taking them to make the playoffs, but the market only has them at +110.
Las Vegas Raiders – Lean over. The defense is going to win this team some games, but I don’t think Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell will.
Denver Broncos – Lean Under. I think they’ll let Bo Nix learn on the fly, but with no solid weapons and a crappy defense they are going to struggle to get to 6 wins.
