We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC North
2023 Records
Baltimore 13-4/ Cleveland 11-6/ Pittsburgh 10-7/ Cincinnati 9-8
Cincinnati Bengals
What?? You have the Bengals finishing first. Yes, yes I do. This team managed to go 9-8 last year with a little turnover luck, and a 27th ranked defense in EPA. This is even with the Burrow injuries. That was also with a very hard schedule last year, and they have a very easy schedule this season. Burrow should be healthy from his calf, knee and wrist injuries. The top off-season moves by the Bengals was to solidify his O-line. They lost Jonah Williams, but got a steal in the draft with tackle Amarius Mims. The middle of the line is stout, and they also have pro-bowler Orlando Brown Jr. on the blind side. Zach Moss should fit the mold to transition effortlessly from Joe Mixon in the backfield. The receiver core is where the questions arise with Ja’Marr Chase holding out currently and Tee Higgins playing under the franchise tag. I think they get the Chase contract done soon. With the Super Bowl in New Orleans this year there’s something to be said for Chase and Burrow to bring the Bengals to the Big Easy together.
The defense is underwhelming, but I don’t think they can be as bad again in 2024. Trey Hendrickson is back now committed after contract issues and is joined by new tackle Sheldon Rankins who will help an already decent run defense. The core linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt both excelled in the run game, and were solid in underneath pass defense logging six picks between them. The Bengals issues were in the secondary in 2023 with the pass however. I think some of the changes they have made should help shore up that passing defense. They will move Dax Hill from safety to cornerback. They brought back Vonn Bell and added safety Geno Stone who should fix the hole left in 2023 when Jesse Bates left. This should really fix their 31st ranking in Passing chunk plays.
With a healthy Burrow, all they need is a slightly improved defense to hammer this 4th place schedule and get back to the playoffs.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens got as close as they have up to this point to getting to a Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson. They add Derrick Henry in the running game and will get to see how much he has left in the tank. He led the league in carries in four of last five seasons and just turned 30 years old. Part of the equation for both of them will be the turnover on the offensive line. Only two starters return from the group last year. They drafted tackle Roger Rosengarten in the second round, but didn’t add much depth and I think this group will be much worse than 2023 in the trenches. The main receiving targets are both likely Tight ends in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Zay Flowers proved himself as a solid target on the outside as well in 2023.
The 2023 Ravens defense put itself in the record books in becoming the first team ever to lead the league in sacks, takeaways and points allowed. They lost a ton of personnel in the off-season and will likely be good, but not great this year. There are still Pro-Bowlers at all three levels. Up front they are led by DT Justin Madubuike. David Ojabo hasn’t been healthy since college, but he could contribute something meaningful if he stays on the field. The linebacker core features the best defensive player in the league in my opinion in Roquan Smith. The lose Patrick Queen at the Will and need Trenton Simpson to become a solid NFL option. Safety Kyle Hamilton leads a secondary that loses three players this year. They still have Marlon Humphrey as their top option at Corner, but he has been slowed by injury. Clemson corner Nate Wiggins was their top pick in the draft and will need to contribute right away.
Look for the Ravens to compete again to win the division this year, but I think the losses this off-season could prove too much to repeat in this difficult division.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
Pittsburgh Steelers
Could getting Justin Fields and Russell Wilson as QBs become the reason Mike Tomlin’s streak of never finishing below .500 ends? Watching the pre-season so far I’d say its a possibility. But he won 10 games with Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett at the helm, so who knows. Wilson didn’t have an awful year with Sean Payton in Denver and is still the one I would trust the most to lead the offense. The Steelers also invested heavily in the O-Line in the draft to protect Wilson who was seemingly running for his life on every dropback last year in Denver. They nabbed left tackle Troy Fautanu in the first round and then got center Zach Frazier in the second. This will likely be one of the youngest offensive lines in the league, but should also have some of the most upside as well. They’ll be opening holes for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. I like Warren’s explosive ability to become the lead back in 2024. George Pickens will lead the receiving core, but I am not to excited by any of his compadres across the field. Someone will need to step up and give the QBs a better second option to throw to.
T.J. Watt leads a defense that goes as he does. Paired with other outside linebacker Alex Highsmith they create the highest havoc marks in the league from a LB position duo. They also signed the above mentioned Patrick Queen from Baltimore which is a huge in division swipe. Cameron Heyward still anchors the line upfront, but he’s getting up there in age and will need some help from the likes of second round pick Joey Porter Jr. Minkah Fitzpatrick will be joined by Deshon Elliot in a secondary that should be similar to last years squad.
Odds makers seem to think this will be the year Tomlin doesn’t get to .500. I disagree unless T.J. Watt gets hurt. They are 69-32-2 with Watt in the lineup. 1-10 when he isn’t.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Under -145, Over +110
Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco is no longer in Cleveland to save their season. Deshaun Watson will have to return to his Houston form to make things improve in Cleveland. They have Amari Cooper back as his primary target alongside TE David Njoku. They traded for Jerry Jeudy to give them another big threat for Watson. Nick Chubb should be back soon from knee surgery, but even if not quite ready to start the season the Browns signed plenty of RB depth this off-season. Cleveland has a solid OL with all of the starters returning and they should continue to produce solid results. Overall the offense was one of the worst in the NFL, and I don’t see Deshaun getting back to his old self anytime soon.
Myles Garrett leads a solid defensive unit which was #1 overall in EPA. They resigned Za’Darius Smith and Shelby Harris to help up front. They add LB Jordan Hicks. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is also coming off his best season at LB. The front seven in Cleveland is a huge undertaking for the offensive fronts of most teams. The cornerbacks led by Denzel Ward are probably the best overall grouping in the league. If there’s any weakness on defense it is at the safety position.
This team will be in a ton of dogfights, but are going to struggle to make the playoffs again in this tough division without improved QB play.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
2024 AFC North Predictions:
Cincinnati Bengals 13-4
Baltimore Ravens 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7
Cleveland Browns 9-8
AFC North Action:
Cincinnati Bengals – Over 10.5 Wins -120 1 Unit. My game projection has them with a big fast start and then they just keep on rolling. I don’t trust the defense enough with the eye test to tie up more than 1 Unit however.
Baltimore Ravens – No Action. Great regular season team that could certainly win the division and put up 12 or 13 wins. I’m laying off this year though.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Lean Over. I’d say the best bet here might actually be Pittsburgh to make the playoffs at +155. I may go that route before the season starts.
Cleveland Browns – No action. This division is gonna be the best in football again. The coach I trust to keep his team out of the cellar without a solid QB resides in Pittsburgh. This team needs to be 4-1 to start the season to have a chance to make the playoffs as they have two brutal stretches in Weeks 6-11 and again weeks 15-18. I like looking at an In-season under bet if they get to the 4-1 record.
