We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC South
2023 Records
Houston 10-7/ Jacksonville 9-8/ Indianapolis 9-8/ Tennessee 6-11
Houston Texans
Demeco Ryans led a huge turnaround last year in Houston. This year they hope to be a Super Bowl contender. C.J. Stroud proved he was the QB that should have gone #1 overall. He joined elite company in Joe Montana and Tom Brady as the only QBs in the last 50 years to lead the league in Passing yards per game and TD/INT ratio. He already had plenty of weapons, but picked up a few more in the off-season in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. I think Diggs is a locker room cancer, and it will only be a matter of time before he has issues in Houston as well. With Tank Dell and Nico Collins also in the mix and Dalton Schultz at TE this offense should be able to stretch the field once again in 2024. The OL was oft-injured in 2023 and if they stay any healthier should improve even with questions of who will start at the guard spots. This will be the unit that struggles the most for the offense.
The defense was gutted and overhauled a bit with 14 new faces signed on that side of the ball plus five players drafted. They used second and third round choices to solidify depth in the secondary. Second round pick Kamari Lassiter will compete with Jeff Okudah opposite stingy top corner Derek Stingley Jr. Up front they lose 3/4 of the DL with only Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. returning. They will need Denico Autry to repeat his performance from last season in Tennessee, but he is getting up there in years. They typically roll with only two linebackers on the field and I love the play of Christian Harris. Free agent Azeez Al-Shaair will be his likely partner who is familiar with Ryans’ defense from his time in San Francisco.
I like Demeco Ryans a bunch, and I think they can repeat in this division, but they have some tough obstalces ahead of them.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -140, Under +110
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars faded down the stretch and are no longer the trendy team to take the next step having been passed over by Houston. They couldn’t run the ball at all in 2023 finishing 30th in rushing EPA. Travis Etienne is a solid three down performer, but needs some holes on the ground. The added veteran Mitch Morse to be their starting center, but the rest of the line is unchanged, and I don’t see drastic improvement here in pass or run blocking. That means Trevor Lawrence will need to be smarter when under duress and take care of the ball. He led the league in turnovers in 2023 with 21 total (14 picks, 7 fumbles) and has to be better. His offensive receiving core should be better this year with top draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. joining Christian Kirk and Even Engram. They also added former Buffalo WR Gabe Davis.
New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will look to improve upon a middling unit. Josh Allen and Travon Walker will be the keys to pressure again this season for the Jags after combining for 27.5 sacks in 2023. They signed Arik Armstead to anchor the DT spot and help their biggest weakness which was against the run. Devin Lloyd is stout at MLB, but the outsides will need to improve especially against the run. The secondary sees a big transition with Ronald Darby coming in to man one of the corner spots and Darnell Savage taking over at Free safety. They should be better than the group was in 2023. Overall, this group has potential to be Top 10 I think in 2024.
It wouldn’t shock me to see this team to make the playoffs or even win the division if Lawrence cuts down the turnovers.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced evenly at -115
Tennessee Titans
Mike Vrabel is gone and Brian Callahan is in. Derrick Henry is gone and Tony Pollard is in. I could just keep going like this. Lots of turnover in Tennessee this off-season. They have Will Levis entrenched as the starting QB and will get to find out if he is their guy this year with some more options surrounding him. They added Calvin Ridley to join DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. Then made another great move snagging Tyler Boyd who will line up in the slot and is familiar with Callahan’s system. The offensive line has been awful, but they took JC Latham seventh overall in the draft to be their franchise left tackle. They also got Center Lloyd Cushenberry to start at center. The biggest get however is all-world OL Coach Bill Callahan.
The defense was middle of the road across the board in 2023 finishing 14th in yards per game against the run, and 18th overall against the pass. What they didn’t do was take the ball away finishing 31st in the NFL in takeaways per game. They started by overhauling the secondary here trading for L’Jarius Sneed and signing Chidobe Awuzie. Up front is where I could see some issues with them losing Denico Autry. They did draft a big bad man in T’vondre Sweat to plug up the middle however. Linebacker took a step back losing Azeez Al-Shaair and replacing him with Kenneth Murray.
I think this team could surprise as they have done a decent quick rebuild around Will Levis. The querstion is will Will Levis turn out to be good? I am not buying it.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under at -145, Over +115
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts basically did nothing in free agency in the off-season other than adding Backup extraordinaire Joe Flacco. So they have a solid option in place again this season when Anthony Richardson gets blown-up running the football. We will see if Shane Steichen continues to call designed runs for Richardson or if he plays it safer in his second year. A healthy Jonathan Taylor is a godsend to take some pressure off the QB, but they lose Zach Moss if he goes down again. They resigned Wr Michael Pittman and added Adonai Mitchell in the draft to complement him and Josh Downs. Also returning after missing all of last year is Tight End Jelani Woods. The OL has perennial All-Pros Quenton Nelson at Guard and Ryan Kelly at center. The questions are at tackle with both injury histories and skill problems especially at LT.
The biggest move on defense was resigning leader Zaire Franklin at MLB. On the DL they brought back Julian Blackmon, signed tackle Raekwon Davis, and drafted DE Laiatu Latu in the first round. It should be a better group than 2023. The secondary however is going to be the downfall of the Colts this year I believe. Not upgrading this group was a mistake and is going to cost them. Safety Julian Blackmon is the only above average player in the back-end and they will continue to give up too many big plays.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Under at -145, Over +115
2024 AFC South Predictions:
Houston Texans 10-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8
Tennessee Titans 6-11
Indianapolis Colts 5-12
AFC South Action:
This division gets the NFC North and AFC East which is really a rough pair of divisions to face.
Houston Texans – No Action. Besides those tough pair of divisions the Texans also have @DAL, @KC and vsBAL on the schedule. I think they still win the division, but I can’t play anything here as they could just as easily go 6-11 as 11-6 with the teams they’re facing.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville to win division +250, 1 Unit. I don’t trust Lawrence, but this team was only 1 game out last year even with all the mistakes, and again look at Houston’s schedule. +250 is way too much here and I’m taking it.
Tennessee Titans- No Action. If Levis is really bad this likely goes under, but I am staying away.
Indianapolis Colts – Under 8.5 +115, 2 Units. Well folks, I don’t like Richardson. I don’t like that they did nothing to upgrade their team. I don’t like that their Pythagorean Wins was over a full win lower than what they got last year. And finally I don’t like how their schedule starts off. It’s possible they’ll have given up by the midpoint of the season. VsHOU, @GB, vsCHI, vsPIT, @JAX, @TEN, vsMIA, @HOU, @MIN, vsBUF, @NYJ, vsDET. After that it gets easier, but are they going to have 5 wins in their first 12 games? I doubt it. Even if they do, they would need to go 4-1 down the stretch to hit this over. I am all out on the Colts this season.
