Pre-Season is over and NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC East
2023 Records
Buffalo 11-6/ Miami 11-6/ New York Jets 7-10/ New England 4-13
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins collapsed down the stretch and were unable to knock the Bills off their AFC East perch last year. This is the season where they get to the top. Tua Tagovailoa finally stayed healthy for a full season and if he can avoid any more concussions should be able to repeat his success of last year. Having Tyreek Hill as a deep option certainly helps and Jaylon Waddle if no slouch either. They also added Jonnu Smith at TE. On the ground they have a solid two-headed beast in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. On the line both tackles are elite, but they will have to replace the production of Guard Robert Hunt. Having Mike McDaniel calling plays and Darrell Bevell guiding him as QB coach is as good as it gets. This offense will once again be a Top 5 NFL grouping.
On defense Zach Seiler returns as a top DT, but they lost his partner Christian Wilkins which will affect the run defense. Both outside linebackers are returning from knee injures, but if healthy they have shown a very high level of production. They also drafted Chop Robinson in Round 1 to help off the edge. Kendall Fuller will replace Xavien Howard at CB, but should have less responsibility as I anticipate Jalen Ramsey playing more man to man against opponents top receivers than he did when Vic Fangio was the DC.
I think this defense might take a step back with a new coordinator, but overall the offense if it stays healthy will carry this team to plenty of victories.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -130, Under +100
Buffalo Bills
New offensive and defensive coordinators highlight a year of change in Buffalo. The Bills will go as Josh Allen goes, but he will now be without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and will need to find someone to help him move the chains. Second pick Keon Coleman could be that guy, they also brought in Curtis Samuel. TE Dalton Kincaid will likely be his primary target as he creates match-up issues in the Travis Kelce mold. James Cook brokeout a bit last season and should be a stalwart in the backfield.
Defensively there are also lots of changes. Both starting safeties are gone, along with cornerback Tre’Davious White. Rasul Douglas will be the only main returning piece in the secondary. They also lost sack leader Leonard Floyd. Von Miller is past his prime now, and I worry they won’t be able to get much pressure on the QB this season. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are both key stars at LB, and will have to be at their best for this defense not to implode.
The offense will figure it out. Josh Allen is too good to let them fall backwards too far. This defense however is going to make him have to put up thirty points a lot to win games this season however.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Under -150, Over +120
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers is 40. So what, look what Tom Brady did after 40! Well that’s true, but so much of what makes Aaron special is his ability to be mobile and extend plays. It’ll be interesting to see what he has left in the legs. Plus he brings all the attention and spotlight with him which is always a distraction. That being said he has always shown his level of play is elite. He did however struggle in his last season in Green Bay and I think it may be a sign of things to come. Is he an upgrade over Zach Wilson? Absolutely. Is he good enough to get this team back to the playoffs? We will see. The Jets knew they had to upgrade the line to protect him and brought in Tyron Smith and drafted Olu Fashanu to improve the Tackles. They also added Guard Josh Simpson. As far as weapons go they already have an elite wideout in Garrett Wilson, and added oft-injured former Charger Mike Williams. Breece Hall has proven as one of the top running backs in the league and he will get some help finally this year from Braelon Allen.
The defense somehow won this team seven games last season. They were third in EPA and should be a top 5 unit again in 2024. They lost Bryce Huff and a few other pieces up front, but return with Haason Reddick taking his place. Add him to Quinnen WIlliams at DT and you’ve got the pieces of an elite DL once again. Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald IV will also get in on pressuring the QB. In the back end Sauce Gardner is one of the leagues best cover corners and will have a solid option in D.J. Reed playing opposite. The only real question mark on the defense is at safety, but the front seven and corners do a great job of covering that up.
The schedule and the defense says this team is ready to end the longest playoff drought in all of the NFL. I just don’t trust Aaron Rodgers to find himself the same QB he was three years ago.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -160, Under +130
New England Patriots
Bill Bellichek is gone, and he is taking with him whatever was left of the winning ways of the Patriots. Jerod Mayo will inherit a mess. He has Alex Van Pelt and Ben McAdoo running his offense, and they’ve struggled since leaving Green Bay. #3 Pick Drake Maye will be learning on the bench behind Jacoby Brissett, but will likely take over at some point as the season falls apart. Whoever is under center won’t have any top threats to throw to unless second round pick Ja’Lynn Polk turn into one. They will likely rely on the running game to try and keep their defense off the field with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson leading the way. The line returns four starters, but the one that isn’t is the left tackle which could prove problematic against opposing pass rushers.
The defense isn’t awful checking in at 7th in yards allowed per game in 2023. Some of that could have been due to teams simply running clock in the second half once they had the lead however. DT Christian Barmore will control the interior. Matthew Judon was coming back from injury and got traded a few weeks back which will hurt the pass rush. The secondary will get a key piece back in Christian Gonzalez, but they lose Jalen Mills, Myles Bryant and J.C. Jackson. Not sure if this group will be as solid as 2023.
Bellichek being gone is going to hurt to Pats more than people are talking about especially on defense. This looks to be a complete rebuilding year for them. Did I mention their first eight games are all against teams that had a winning record in 2023 with the exception of Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.
Vegas Win Projection: 4.5 Juiced Over -125, Under -105
2024 AFC East Predictions:
Miami Dolphins 12-5
Buffalo Bills 11-6
New York Jets 10-7
New England Patriots 4-13
AFC East Action:
Miami Dolphins – Over 9.5 Wins 1.5 Units. I think the top three in this division will beat each other up, and the Fins have a much easier go of it early on. They should coast into ten wins as long as Tua stays upright.
Buffalo Bills – No Action. I am not on the side that they are completely out of a Super Bowl window. As long as they have Josh Allen that window is open.
New York Jets – Lean Over. I’m not on this, but I gotta think if he is healthy Aaron Rodgers will get three more wins than Zach Wilson with this defense.
New England Patriots – Lean Under. This will likely be a small play for me on Friday. If they start 1-7 or 0-8 I can’t see them getting to five wins.
