2024 NHL Playoff Series & Game 1 Preview – TBL/FLA, WSH/NYR, COL/WPG, & NSH/VAN

Today marks the commencement of four thrilling NHL playoff series. The Battle of Florida ignites as the Tampa Bay Lightning clash with the Florida Panthers, while the New York Rangers, holders of the President’s Trophy, face off against the Washington Capitals. Additionally, the Colorado Avalanche go head-to-head with the Winnipeg Jets, and the Nashville Predators take on the Vancouver Canucks. Let’s delve into each series, dissecting the dynamics, and I’ll unveil my predictions for Game 1.

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The Panthers clinched the top spot in the Atlantic Division with an impressive total of 110 points. Ending the regular season with a flourish, they secured victories in each of their last four games, solidifying their status as contenders for the Stanley Cup.

Sam Reinhart, the former 2nd overall draft pick, emerged as the linchpin of the Panthers’ offense this season, amassing an impressive 94 points (57 goals, 37 assists). This marked a career-best performance for Reinhart, surpassing his previous record of 82 points set in the 2021-22 season. Notably, Matthew Tkachuk (88 points) and Aleksander Barkov (80 points) also made significant offensive contributions, boasting averages of over a point per game.

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Lightning concluded the season with 98 points, mirroring their total from the previous year. However, while they secured the third spot in the Atlantic Division last season, this year they settled for fourth, earning the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Notably, the Lightning faced challenges on the road, posting a 20-18-3 record compared to their strong 25-11-5 performance at home.

Nikita Kucherov maintained his dominance for the Lightning, leading the team in points for the second consecutive season with an impressive total of 144 (44 goals, 100 assists). Brayden Point (90 points) and Steven Stamkos (81 points) were the only other players on Tampa Bay to boast averages of over a point per game.

Statistics:

Preview/Pick(s):

The Battle of Florida unfolded thrice this season, with the Panthers seizing the upper hand by clinching victory in two of those matchups. Both teams grappled with injury woes throughout the regular season, leaving some players questionable for Game 1. In the Panthers’ camp, Aaron Ekblad is slated to make his return to the lineup for the series opener, while Ekman-Larsson’s availability remains uncertain. Conversely, Tampa Bay’s Mikhail Sergachev has been sidelined for the past two months with a leg injury, and his status for this series hangs in the balance.

With Florida enjoying the home-ice advantage in this showdown, it could serve as a decisive factor. While Tampa Bay boasts a seasoned core of veterans with Stanley Cup-winning experience, the Panthers field an impressive contingent of 14 players from last year’s finals.

The goaltending narrative adds another layer of intrigue to this matchup. Sergei Bobrovsky, who shone brightly during last season’s playoffs, has faced occasional struggles this year. Alongside Bobrovsky, Anthony Stolarz has made a mark, ranking 3rd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a notable +20.1. Meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy faced an injury setback early in the season and hasn’t quite replicated his past stellar form. However, his ability to elevate his performance during the postseason is a well-documented phenomenon.

In summary, the advantage tilts in favor of Florida for this series. Their offensive depth coupled with strong defensive play positions them as formidable contenders. While anticipation mounts for a fiercely competitive series, the Panthers appear poised to fulfill their mission this season and emerge triumphant.

Pick: Florida Panthers -1.5 Games (+115) – DraftKings

Game 1 Picks:

• Sam Reinhart over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings

Sam Reinhart is currently stationed on Florida’s top line alongside Vladimir Tarasenko and Aleksander Barkov. Additionally, he holds a position on Florida’s first Powerplay unit, which is poised for several opportunities tonight, considering Tampa Bay ranks 28th in Penalty Minutes.

Reinhart has hit his shots on goal mark in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game.

He’s also been better at home recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of his last 10 games compared to just 6 of his last 10 on the road.

Reinhart has a great history against Tampa Bay recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of his last 10 games against them.

Tampa Bay currently ranks 12th in the NHL for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 29.63 shots. On the road, this number slightly increases to 29.93. Their recent performance has been even less stellar, with an average of 31.20 shots faced per game in their last ten outings. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Lightning have conceded the second-highest number of shots on goal to right-wingers in their past ten games.

New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals

The New York Rangers capped off the NHL regular season with an impressive 110 points, securing the coveted President’s Trophy. Their last triumph in this regard dates back to the 2014-15 season, coinciding with their journey to the Eastern Conference Final. Eager to bounce back from last season’s disappointment, where they were eliminated in the first round by the New Jersey Devils, the Rangers are poised for redemption.

Artemi Panarin showcased the pinnacle of his eight-year NHL career during the regular season, setting personal records with 49 goals and 120 points. His remarkable form culminated in a scorching 13-game point streak, tallying 26 points (15 goals, 11 assists). Additionally, the Rangers boasted four other players with over 70 points each, including Vincent Trocheck (77 points), Chris Kreider (75 points), Adam Fox (73 points), and Mike Zibanejad (72 points).

While Igor Shesterkin, a consistent presence in the top 5 of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAX) in the past two regular seasons, faced some challenges this year, he regained his form in the latter half of the season. Posting a stellar record of 17-5-1 with a 2.20 goals-against average, a .930 save percentage, and four shutouts in 23 games from Feb. 9 onwards, Shesterkin showcased his resilience. Meanwhile, backup goaltender Jonathan Quick, boasting three Stanley Cup rings, enjoyed a marked improvement compared to last season, concluding with a 2.62 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage in 27 games.

On the other side, the Washington Capitals secured a playoff berth with 91 points, despite a concerning minus-36 goal differential. Their late surge, winning four of their last five games, allowed them to clinch the spot, narrowly edging out the Detroit Red Wings on a tiebreaker. While the Capitals have reached the playoffs four times in the last five seasons, they’ve faced first-round exits on each occasion.

Dylan Strome led the Capitals in points this season with 67 (27 goals, 40 assists), with only two additional players surpassing the 50-point mark: Alex Ovechkin (65 points) and John Carlson (52 points).

In the goaltending department, Darcy Kuemper began the season as the Capitals’ No. 1 goaltender, but Charlie Lindgren has emerged as the primary option in recent outings. Lindgren’s impressive performance in the final stretch, going 4-1-1 with a 1.68 goals-against average, a .937 save percentage, and one shutout in his last six starts, underscores his impact. Finishing the season with a commendable 25-16-7 record, a 2.67 goals-against average, and a .911 save percentage, Lindgren solidified his position. Conversely, Kuemper’s season saw him post a 13-14-3 record with a 3.31 goals-against average, a .890 save percentage, and one shutout in 33 games.

Statistics:

Preview/Pick(s):

These divisional rivals have clashed four times this season, with the series evenly split at 2-2.

On paper, the Rangers appear to have a significant advantage, but as we’ve seen time and again, hockey can be unpredictable. The key for the Rangers in this series will be to generate more 5-on-5 production, as they have heavily relied on their special teams to score goals. Washington, known for their disciplined play, doesn’t take many penalties, so the Rangers must capitalize on their limited power play opportunities.

Despite the Rangers’ struggles at even strength, the Capitals are dealing with several defensive injuries and have struggled to limit scoring chances throughout the season. Lindgren, riding high into this series, will need to maintain his exceptional level of play to give Washington a chance. If the Capitals can keep the games low-scoring and capitalize on their chances, they could make things interesting. However, if the Rangers’ forwards can generate opportunities and receive solid goaltending from Shesterkin, they should be well-positioned to secure victory in this series.

Pick: Series Correct Score NY Rangers 4-2 (+350) – DraftKings

Game 1 Picks:

• Artemi Panarin over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings

Artemi Panarin is currently stationed on New York’s second line alongside Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere Additionally, he holds a position on New York’s first Powerplay unit, which is poised for several opportunities tonight.

Panarin has hit his shots on goal mark in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 shots on goal and 12.6 shot attempts per game.

He’s also been much better at home recording over 4.5 shots on goal in 7 of his last 10 games compared to just 3 of his last 10 on the road.

Washington currently ranks 21st in the NHL for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 30.52 shots. On the road, this number slightly increases to 31.51.

• Mika Zibanejad over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings

Mika Zibanejad is currently stationed on New York’s top line alongside Chris Kreider and Jack Roslovic. Additionally, he holds a position on Florida’s first Powerplay unit, which is poised for several opportunities tonight.

Zibanejad has hit his shots on goal mark in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.6 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game.

He’s also great at home recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of his last 10 games.

Zibanejad has a great history against Washington recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 5 of his last 6 games against them.

Washington currently ranks 21st in the NHL for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 30.52 shots. On the road, this number slightly increases to 31.51.

Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche

The Winnipeg Jets concluded the regular season with an impressive total of 110 points, trailing the Dallas Stars by a mere three points for the top spot in the Central Division. They capped off the season on a high note, securing victory in eight of their last ten games. However, their postseason aspirations took a hit last year when they were eliminated in the first round by the Vegas Golden Knights.

Mark Scheifele led the Jets in scoring with 72 points (25 goals, 47 assists). Alongside Scheifele, the Jets boasted a formidable offensive lineup, with five other players tallying over 50 points each: Josh Morrissey (69 points), Kyle Conner (61 points), Nikolaj Ehlers (61 points), Sean Monahan* (59 points), and Tyler Toffoli (55 points).

The Jets also boasted one of the League’s top goaltending tandems this season in Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit. Hellebuyck, considered a frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy, posted a league-leading +33.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), while Brossoit ranked 10th with a commendable +13.1 GSAx.

Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche secured third place in the Central Division with 107 points. Despite their Stanley Cup win in 2021-22, they suffered a disappointing postseason exit last year, falling in the first round to the Seattle Kraken.

Once again, Nathan MacKinnon led the Avalanche in scoring for the second consecutive season, amassing an impressive 140 points (51 goals, 89 assists). Additionally, Mikko Rantanen eclipsed the 100-point mark, registering 104 points (42 goals, 62 assists) in 80 games played.

Statistics:

Preview/Pick(s):

These divisional adversaries have squared off three times this season, with the Jets emerging victorious in each encounter. Notably, Winnipeg asserted dominance on the scoreboard, outscoring Colorado by a commanding margin of 17-4 across those matchups.

For Winnipeg to advance to the second round of the playoffs, they must lean heavily on their defensive prowess. While their offensive output has surged heading into the postseason, their success hinges on their ability to thwart Colorado’s formidable offense. Fortunately for the Jets, recent performances have showcased their capability to stifle their opponent’s scoring opportunities.

Although Colorado boasts one of the NHL’s most potent offenses, Winnipeg has demonstrated the capacity to contain them. This defensive resilience could prove pivotal in tipping the scales in favor of the Jets as they aim for postseason success.

Pick: Winnipeg Jets (+115)

Game 1 Picks:

• Winnipeg Jets ml (-110) – FanDuel

Vancouver Canucks vs Nashville Predators

The Vancouver Canucks clinched the top spot in the Pacific Division with an impressive tally of 109 points, marking their maiden victory in the division’s history.

J.T. Miller led the charge for the Canucks, amassing an impressive 103 points (37 goals, 66 assists). Additionally, the Canucks boasted a formidable offensive lineup, with three other players tallying over 50 points each: Quinn Hughes (92 points), Elias Pettersson (89 points), and Brock Boeser (73 points).

Thatcher Demko, returning from a late-season knee injury, previously showcased Vezina-worthy form. However, should he encounter challenges, the Canucks may turn to Casey DeSmith, although his recent performances haven’t been stellar.

Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators concluded the season with 99 points, securing the top spot in the Western Conference. Despite missing the playoffs last season, they’ve faced first-round exits in each of the previous four seasons.

Filip Forsberg spearheaded Nashville’s offensive charge this season, notching a career-best 94 points (48 goals, 46 assists). Complementing Forsberg were key contributors such as Roman Josi (85 points), Gustav Nyquist (75 points), and Ryan O’Reilly (69 points).

In the goaltending department, Juuse Saros endured a slightly underwhelming season by his standards. However, he has a history of elevating his performance in the playoffs, boasting a career save percentage of .914 in postseason play.

Statistics:

Preview/Pick(s):

While this series may lack the flashy appeal of matchups like Dallas versus Vegas or Boston against Toronto, it promises to deliver captivating hockey. The true X-Factor in this contest lies in the goaltending department. Can Demko maintain his composure and stand tall during the playoffs? Will Saros rediscover his form and offer consistent goaltending for the Predators? These uncertainties add an intriguing dimension to the series.

Given the matchup between these teams, I anticipate this series stretching to at least six games.

PICK: Series Total Games – 6 (+205). Series Total Games – 7 (+205)

Game 1 Picks:

• None

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.