2024 PGA Championship Preview & Picks

The second Major of the season takes place this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. Valhalla Golf Club is no stranger to Major Championship golf as it’s played host to the PGA Championship three times before. In addition to hosting the PGA Championship, the 2008 Ryder Cup was also held here making it the first course to ever host both the Ryder Cup and the PGA Championship in the same year.

Valhalla, a term derived from Norse mythology, embodies a grand hall situated in Asgard and ruled by the deity Odin. In Viking lore, warriors aspired to eternally reside in Valhalla, alongside the gods, as a testament to their valor and prowess in battle.

Drawing a parallel, golfers this week aspire to carve their names into the annals of history at Valhalla Golf Club, seeking to immortalize themselves among the esteemed champions of past PGA Championships. Just as Vikings sought entrance to Valhalla, golfers strive to achieve a lasting legacy, joining the ranks of the sport’s greatest luminaries.

Before we’ve even teed off, the storylines have already started…

Rory McIlroy triumphs at the Wells Fargo Championship as he revisits Valhalla, the site of his last Major Championship victory. Since his remarkable win in 2014, McIlroy has come tantalizingly close to clinching another Major Championship, finishing as runner-up in numerous events. However, the elusive Grand Slam remains unfinished for him, with Augusta National still awaiting his conquest. Heading into the 2014 PGA Championship, McIlroy had claimed victory in his two preceding events, the Open Championship and WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Similarly, this week, he enters on the back of consecutive wins at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and the Wells Fargo Championship.

In personal news, Rory McIlroy has filed for divorce from his wife, Erica Stoll. The couple, who became engaged in December 2015 and tied the knot in April 2017, welcomed their daughter, Poppy, in September 2020.

Scottie Scheffler returns to action after a hiatus of three events on the PGA Tour, attributed to the birth of his child. Arriving on the heels of winning four of his last five starts, Scheffler seeks to build on his stellar performance. His notable achievement at the PGA Championship came last season at Oak Hill Country Club, where he secured a T2 finish.

Jordan Spieth pursues completion of his career Grand Slam, marking his twelfth attempt at winning the PGA Championship. Although his best finish in this event dates back to 2015 when he secured a 2nd place at Whistling Straits, Spieth notably missed the cut when the PGA Championship was held at Valhalla Golf Club in 2014.

Brooks Koepka endeavors to defend his title at the PGA Championship this week, riding a wave of success following his recent victory at LIV Singapore. Known for his prowess in major championships, Koepka’s form heading into the event renders him a formidable contender, as evidenced by his previous victories at LIV Orlando and his runner-up finish at the Masters Tournament.

Ludvig Aberg returns to competition after withdrawing from the Wells Fargo Championship due to a knee injury. Despite the setback, Aberg has showcased remarkable performance in his rookie season, securing top-20 finishes in seven of his last eight events. His notable debut at Augusta as a runner-up adds to his burgeoning reputation, although concerns about his discomfort during practice rounds linger as a point of interest.

Among the top ten in the Official World Golf Ranking, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Max Homa seek their maiden major championship victories, adding to the anticipation surrounding the event.

Jon Rahm, despite a disappointing finish at the Masters this season, maintains a strong showing in his first season on the LIV Tour, consistently finishing inside the top ten. With an impressive streak of 18 consecutive made cuts in major championships, Rahm remains a formidable presence on the course.

Tiger Woods returns for his third start of the 2024 season, aiming to rebound after a withdrawal at the Genesis Invitational and a modest 60th-place finish at the Masters Tournament. Despite his absence from the winner’s circle since his triumph at Valhalla in 2014, Woods remains a compelling figure in the world of golf.

Situated in Kentucky, Valhalla Golf Club pays homage to its equestrian heritage, with eight holes named after horse racing terminology. Notably, the closing hole, No. 18, dubbed “Photo Finish,” mirrors the dramatic conclusion of the 2024 Kentucky Derby, featuring a three-horse photo finish at the wire.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: May 16th, 2024 – May 19th, 2024
• Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
• Course: Valhalla Golf Club
• Course Type: Technical/ Parkland
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,609 yards (Long)
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: T1 bentgrass .100”
• Fairways: Zeon zoysiagrass .450”
• Rough: Tall fescue / bluegrass mix 4”
• Bunkers: 62
• Water Hazard(s): 5 (In-Play on 7 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft. (Small)
• Stimpmeter: 13 ft. (Fast)
• Purse/ Winner: N/A
• FedEx Cup Points: 750
• Field: 156 Players
• Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Aggregate 13, 17, 18 – then 18, 13, 17, 18

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus (1986)
• Recent Renovations:
  • 2012: Rebuilt greens
  • 2014: Rerouting of 6 holes
  • 2021: Resurfaced tees and fairways from bentgrass to zoysiagrass in 2021
  • 2022: New tees on No. 1, 12, 14 and 18

To learn more about all of the renovations completed, you can click the following link.

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • PGA Tour Courses:
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – the Memorial Tournament – RESULTS
    • Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – Farmers Insurance Open – RESULTS
    • Quail Hollow Club – Wells Fargo Championship – RESULTS
    • Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) – 2020, 2023 BMW Championship – RESULTS
  • Major Championship Courses:
    • Oak Hill (East Course) – 2023 PGA Championship – RESULTS
    • Southern Hills – 2022 PGA Championship – RESULTS
    • Bethpage State Park (Black Course) – 2019 PGA Championship – RESULTS

• Designer Link (Jack Nicklaus (1986)):
  • PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – Jack Nicklaus (1987) – The American Express
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Jack Nicklaus (1974) – the Memorial Tournament
  • Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – Jack Nicklaus (2004) – Barracuda Championship
  • PGA National (The Champion) – Jack Nicklaus Renovation (2002, 14, 18) – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

• Comparable Location (Louisville, Kentucky):
  • Keene Trace Golf Club (Champions Course) – Nicholasville, Kentucky – Kentucky Championship
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Dublin, Ohio – the Memorial Tournament

• Comparable Yardage (7,609 Yards):
  • Plantation Course at Kapalua – 7,596 Yards – The Sentry
  • Corales Golf Course – 7,670 Yards – Corales Puntacana Championship

• Comparable Greens (T1 bentgrass .100”):
  • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – Bentgrass .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
  • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
  • Colonial Country Club – A-4 bentgrass .100” – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC Deere Run – L-93 bentgrass .100” – John Deere Classic
  • Keene Trace Golf Club (Champions Course) – Bentgrass – Kentucky Championship
  • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
  • TPC Summerlin – Dominator bentgrass .125″ – Shriners Children’s Open
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO Championship

• Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
  • PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – The American Express
  • Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Colonial Country Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, May 16th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 12:00 PM
  • ESPN – 12:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, May 17th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 12:00 PM
  • ESPN – 12:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, May 18th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM
  • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, May 19th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM
  • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM

In addition to the TV Coverage, you can also watch an alternate broadcast of the PGA Championship hosted by ESPN Bet. During rounds one and two, the coverage will air on ESPN2 from 11:00 a.m. EST and 1:00 p.m. EST. Rounds three and four will be exclusively on ESPN+. 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 81 F, 7 mp/h NW, 68% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Rain/ Thunder 75 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 78% Humidity, 68% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: AM Showers 83 F, 7 mp/h WSW, 70% Humidity, 37% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 87 F, 9 mp/h SW, 63% Humidity, 21% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

The PGA Championship, administered by the Professional Golfers’ Association of America (PGA of America), stands as one of the four prestigious major championships in professional golf. Its inception dates back to 1916 when it debuted at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, New York, initially adopting a match-play format. However, in 1958, the tournament transitioned to stroke play, aligning with the structure of other major championships. By 1969, the PGA Championship officially attained major championship status, joining esteemed counterparts such as The Open Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Masters Tournament.

Traditionally held in mid-August on the third weekend preceding Labor Day weekend, the PGA Championship served as the climactic finale of the men’s golf season. However, commencing in 2019, the tournament found a new slot in May, positioned as the second major of the season following the April Masters Tournament. Winners of the PGA Championship enjoy esteemed privileges, including automatic invitations to the other three majors (Masters Tournament, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship), as well as The Players Championship for the ensuing five years. Additionally, they earn membership on both the PGA Tour and the European Tour for the subsequent five seasons. Notably, the PGA Championship stands as the sole major exclusively reserved for professional players.

Valhalla Golf Club, after hosting the PGA Championship four times, now stands tied for second with Oak Hill Country Club, which hosted the 2023 PGA Championship, for the venue that has hosted the tournament the most times. Southern Hills Country Club, the site of the 2022 PGA Championship, holds the record, having hosted the event on five occasions.

For Dwight Gahm, a prominent figure in Louisville’s business landscape and an avid golf enthusiast, the aspiration to establish a traditional “golf-only” facility materialized in 1981. Collaborating with his sons Walt, Gordy, and Phil, Gahm enlisted Jack Nicklaus to craft a private golf haven on 486 acres of picturesque Kentucky terrain.

Construction commenced in the spring of 1984 after evaluating 40 potential course routings, culminating in the grand unveiling of Valhalla Golf Club in June 1986. Since its inception, the club has been the proud host of three PGA Championships (1996, 2000, and 2014) and the 2008 Ryder Cup. Over the years, the course underwent notable modifications under Nicklaus’s guidance, enhancing its challenge and prestige. In preparation for the 2024 PGA Championship, Valhalla has undergone further adjustments, stretching its length to 7,609 yards, 151 yards longer than its 2014 yardage. The course, playing at par 71, remains a formidable test of skill, with enhancements to various holes, including lengthening the first, 12th, 14th, and 18th holes to intensify the challenge for competitors.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1980) & Walter Hagen (1921, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927)
• 72-Hole Record (PGA Championship):
  • 264, Brooks Koepka (2018 at Bellerive Country Club)
• 18-Hole Record (PGA Championship):
  • 63, Bruce Crampton (Round 2, 1975 at Firestone CC), Raymond Floyd (Round 1, 1982 at Southern Hills), Gary Player (Round 2, 1984 at Shoal Creek), Michael Bradley (Round 1, 1993 at Inverness), Vijay Singh (Round 2, 1993 at Inverness), Brad Faxon (Round 4, 1995 at Riviera CC), José María Olazábal (Round 3, 2000 at Valhalla), Mark O’Meara (Round 2, 2001 at Atlanta AC), Thomas Bjorn (Round 3, 2005 at Baltusrol), Tiger Woods (Round 2, 2007 at Southern Hills), Steve Stricker (Round 1, 2011 at Atlanta AC), Jason Dufner (Round 2, 2013 at Oak Hill), Hiroshi Iwata (Round 2, 2015 at Whistling Straits), Robert Streb (Round 2, 2016 at Baltusrol), Brooks Koepka (Round 2, 2018 at Bellerive; Round 1, 2019 at Bethpage Black), Charl Schwartzel (Round 2, 2018 at Bellerive), Bubba Watson (Round 2, 2022 at Southern Hills).

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by Jack Nicklaus in 1986, Valhalla Golf Club features a Par 71 layout, comprising four Par 3s, eleven Par 4s, and three Par 5s.

In terms of length, Valhalla Golf Club is one of the longest courses on the Tour measuring 7,609 yards. It ranks 2nd out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 9th of 44, with the average fairway width being 30.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers really aren’t a factor here as there are only 62 which ranks as the 13th fewest of 44 courses. 

In 2012, significant renovations were undertaken at the golf course, encompassing various enhancements. All 18 greens were reconstructed using a more heat-tolerant bentgrass, while 12 bunkers were either added or renovated. The practice range was expanded, and a new irrigation system was installed to improve water management. Drainage issues were addressed, and modifications were made to the layout of certain holes to enhance the overall playing experience.

In 2021, Valhalla Golf Club transitioned its fairways and tee boxes from bentgrass to Zeon zoysiagrass, prioritizing sustainability and playability. A total area of 1,313,500 square feet of Zeon zoysia grass was successfully transported and installed from Soperton, GA, to Louisville, KY. All bunker sand underwent excavation and reinforcement with the Better Billy Bunker system, with nearly 2,000 tons of new sand added. Additionally, three new Championship tees were constructed on holes 1, 12, and 14, and curbing was introduced along holes 2, 15, and 16. The installation of four miles of Turf Drain contributed to improved drainage. Extensive efforts were made to address bent and bermudagrass contamination in over 40 acres of primary rough, which were subsequently seeded. Furthermore, more than 60 dead and decaying trees and brush were cleared to enhance views, airflow, and sunlight exposure to specific areas of the course.

The four Par 3’s range between 190 yards and 254 yards. In terms of stats, two of the Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards. In the last edition of this event (2014), all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par except for No. 8 ‘FLOAT LIKE A BUTTERFLY’. Hole No. 14 ‘ON THE ROCKS’ was one of the holes that had the tee box moved back. In 2014, it was listed at 217 yards while this year it is listed at 254 yards.

No. 3 ‘HONEST ABE’, 208 Yards, Par 3: “This is a challenging par 3 with Floyd’s Fork sweeping around to the right of the green, which is guarded by a large bunker to the right and smaller bunkers to the left and behind. The real danger at this hole is misreading the wind, which can push a shot to the right, where the ball can careen off the slope and into the hazard.”

No. 14 ‘ON THE ROCKS’, 254 Yards, Par 3: “The longest par 3 at Valhalla, this hole features a two-tiered green with two bunkers in front and two behind. Shots played from either of the two rear bunkers will make for a challenging up-and-down, as the green slopes from back to front. This hole demands proper club selection.”

There are eleven Par 4’s at Valhalla Golf Club with the majority (six) of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 13 ‘THE LIMESTONE HOLE’ is the shortest listed at 351 yards with the longest being No. 16 ‘HOMESTRETCH’, playing 508 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course in 2014 was No. 2 ‘WINNING COLORS’ (+0.36). Holes No. 1 ‘THE POST’ and No. 12 ‘STING LIKE A BEE’ are two of the holes that had the tee box moved back. In 2014, No. 1 was listed at 446 yards while this year it is listed at 484 yards. No. 12 was listed at 467 yards in 2014 while this year it is listed at 494 yards

No. 1 ‘THE POST’, 484 Yards, Par 4: “A major test out the gate, this dogleg left par 4 was lengthened to 495 yards. The challenge is not only off the tee but also in the approach shot. The front-right bunker is a visually intimidating sight for approach shots to front-left or back-right hole locations. The left bunker is positioned to gobble up errant shots aimed at the back portion of the green.”

No. 6 ‘LONG SHOT’, 495 Yards, Par 4: “This is one of Valhalla’s most difficult holes, demanding an accurate tee shot. For some players, this may require less than a driver from the tee as the aim is to get as close to Floyd’s Fork as the player dares. From here, players still face an approach shot of at least 200 yards to a challenging green complex with plenty of trouble. A deep bunker guards the left side of the green and a closely mowed collection area will grab shots to the right. This will be a difficult par.”

No. 13 ‘THE LIMESTONE HOLE’, 351 Yards, Par 4: “The shortest par 4 at Valhalla, No. 13 has seen its fair share of excitement over the years. A series of six bunkers on the left of the driving zone must be avoided. The “island” green is one the most spectacular on the course, built up nearly 20 feet on large boulders. Since the green is almost completely surrounded by water, accuracy with controlled spin is a must for this hole.”

No. 15 ‘JULEP’, 435 Yards, Par 4: “This is one of the most scenic holes at Valhalla, with Brush Run Creek running down the right side. The landing area is framed by deep bluegrass rough to the left and a large bunker to the right. However, the green, like the fairway, is skirted by Brush Run Creek, leaving little room for error to the right.”

The three Par 5’s are No. 7 ‘GENUINE RISK’, No. 10 ‘BIG RED’, & No. 18 ‘PHOTO FINISH’. They all played under par in 2014, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 18 ‘PHOTO FINISH’ with a scoring average of 4.489. Hole No. 18 ‘PHOTO FINISH’ was one of the holes that had the tee box moved back. In 2014, it was listed at 542 yards while this year it is listed at 570 yards.

No. 7 ‘GENUINE RISK’, 597 Yards, Par 5: “The seventh offers a definite risk vs. reward approach. There’s a split fairway here. The shorter route, to the left, shortens the hole by more than 50 yards. However, the landing area is only 26 yards wide and the entire fairway is surrounded by bluegrass rough and water to the right. The approach from this island fairway will be a carry of 210-230 yards, all over water. The fairway to the right is the longer, but safer route. With the water hazard skirting the front and the entire left edge of the green, it’s a brave player who attacks the green from any angle.”

No. 10 ‘BIG RED’, 590 Yards, Par 5: “The 10th is a double-dogleg par 5 with a fairway bunker on the right side of the driving zone and deep rough and trees to the left. The undulating, two-tiered green is protected by a large, deep bunker guarding the front. Distance control on the approach is a must, as shots missing long will make par extremely difficult and shots coming up short will find the front bunker.”

No. 18 ‘PHOTO FINISH’, 570 Yards, Par 5: “The 18th has proven to be a great finishing hole. This par 5 has a large fairway bunker to the left of the landing zone and a spectacular water feature on the right. Most players can reach this hole in two but must avoid the bunker guarding the front of the green as well as the smaller pot bunker on the left. The green complex is unique – offering three distinct putting areas shaped like a horseshoe, which provides a wonderful reminder of the equine heritage found in Kentucky.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • In order to win at Valhalla Golf Club, players will need to do everything right between their play off the tee, on approach, and around the green. Four of the past six winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Tee to Green amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (+72.34 Total, +3.01 Per Round)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (+46.23 Total, +1.93 Per Round)
    • Si Woo Kim (+45.30 Total, +1.89 Per Round)
    • Rory McIlroy (+39.88 Total, +1.66 Per Round)
    • Xander Schauffele (+39.04 Total, +1.63 Per Round)
    • Alex Noren (+37.34 Total, +1.56 Per Round)
    • Keith Mitchell (+35.18 Total, +1.47 Per Round)
    • Ludvig Åberg (+34.06 Total, +1.42 Per Round)
    • Corey Conners (+29.64 Total, +1.24 Per Round)
    • Lucas Glover (+28.40 Total, +1.18 Per Round)

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (+25.64 Total, +1.07 Per Round)
    • Alejando Tosti (+20.44 Total, +0.85 Per Round)
    • Keith Mitchell (+19.76 Total, +0.82 Per Round)
    • Rory McIlroy (+19.71 Total, +0.82 Per Round)
    • Xander Schauffele (+17.78 Total, +0.74 Per Round)
    • Ludvig Åberg (+17.52 Total, +0.73 Per Round)
    • Joaquin Niemann (+16.00 Total, +0.67 Per Round)
    • Min Woo Lee (+15.99 Total, +0.67 Per Round)
    • Bryson Dechambeau (+15.86 Total, +0.66 Per Round)
    • Dean Burmester (+15.04 Total, +0.63 Per Round)

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Four of the past five winners ranked 17th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (+32.49 Total, +1.35 Per Round)
    • Corey Conners (+27.42 Total, +1.14 Per Round)
    • Keith Mitchell (+22.42 Total, +0.93 Per Round)
    • Si Woo Kim (+21.20 Total, +0.88 Per Round)
    • Tom Hoge (+20.34 Total, +0.85 Per Round)
    • Akshay Bhatia (+20.24 Total, +0.84 Per Round)
    • Shane Lowry (+19.26 Total, +0.80 Per Round)
    • Aaron Rai (+18.51 Total, +0.77 Per Round)
    • Ludvig Åberg (+16.88 Total, +0.70 Per Round)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (+16.18 Total, +0.67 Per Round)

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • The average green size at Valhalla Golf Club is 5,000 sq. ft., much smaller than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game. Each of the past three winners ranked 20th or better in SG: Around the Green amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Hideki Matsuyama (+19.60 Total, +0.82 Per Round)
    • Denny McCarthy (+15.48 Total, +0.64 Per Round)
    • Alex Noren (+14.37 Total, +0.60 Per Round)
    • Scottie Scheffler (+14.21 Total, +0.59 Per Round)
    • Talor Gooch (+11.68 Total, +0.49 Per Round)
    • Padrig Harrington (+11.52 Total, +0.48 Per Round)
    • Si Woo Kim (+10.85 Total, +0.45 Per Round)
    • Stephan Jaeger (+10.70 Total, +0.45 Per Round)
    • Tommy Fleetwood (+10.24 Total, +0.43 Per Round)
    • Lucas Glover (+9.56 Total, +0.40 Per Round)

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • The green complexes at Valhalla Golf Club are T1 bentgrass .100”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Denny McCarthy (+25.77 Total, +1.07 Per Round)
    • Martin Kaymer (+25.46 Total, +1.06 Per Round)
    • Tyrrell Hatton (+24.95 Total, +1.04 Per Round)
    • J.T. Poston (+22.62 Total, +0.94 Per Round)
    • Viktor Hovland (+21.42 Total, +0.89 Per Round)
    • Matt Fitzpatrick (+21.39 Total, +0.89 Per Round)
    • Lucas Herbert (+20.16 Total, +0.84 Per Round)
    • Maverick McNealy (+19.97 Total, +0.83 Per Round)
    • Cameron Smith (+19.37 Total, +0.81 Per Round)
    • Harris English (+19.32 Total, +0.80 Per Round)

• Driving Distance
  • Valhalla Golf Club is one of the longest courses that players will face this season. So far, only two courses have been longer, Corales Golf Course and Torrey Pines (South Course). Seven of the last 10 US PGA winners ranked in the top 30 for Driving Distance in the season of their victory. Also, every winner of the PGA Championship since 2011 has been a minimum 301-yard hitter from the tee.
  • Leaders in this category this season:
    • Bryson Dechambeau (318.9 Average Yards)
    • Joaquin Niemann (317.4 Average Yards)
    • Rory McIlroy (316.8 Average Yards)
    • Wyndham Clark (313.8 Average Yards)
    • Byeong Huh An (313.5 Average Yards)
    • Dean Burmester (313.4 Average Yards)
    • David Puig (313.0 Average Yards)
    • Jon Rahm (312.9 Average Yards)
    • Chris Gotterup (312.6 Average Yards)
    • Alejandro Tosti (311.9 Average Yards)

• Scrambling
  • The average green size at Valhalla Golf Club is 5,000 sq. ft., much smaller than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
  • Leaders in this category this season:
    • Alex Noren (72.64%)
    • Talor Gooch (71.30%)
    • Denny McCarthy (71.20%)
    • Xander Schauffele (70.51%)
    • Scottie Scheffler (69.81%)
    • Tyrell Hatton (68.97%)
    • Jon Rahm (68.69%)
    • Dean Burmester (68.42%)
    • Ben Griffin (68.11%)
    • Mackenzie Hughes (67.97%)

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
  • Six of the eleven Par 4’s at Valhalla Golf Club range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Bryson DeChambeau (+19.04 Total, +0.79 Per Round)
    • Rory McIlroy (+18.57 Total, +0.77 Per Round)
    • Ludvig Åberg (+18.51 Total, +0.77 Per Round)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (+17.57 Total, +0.73 Per Round)
    • Viktor Hovland (+17.34 Total, +0.72 Per Round)
    • Scottie Scheffler (+16.66 Total, +0.69 Per Round)
    • Ben Kohles (+15.87 Total, +0.66 Per Round)
    • Brooks Koepka (+14.58 Total, +0.61 Per Round)
    • Patrick Reed (+12.19 Total, +0.51 Per Round)
    • Si Woo Kim (+12.10 Total, +0.50 Per Round)

• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
  • All of the Par 5’s at Valhalla Golf Club range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (+16.91 Total, +0.70 Per Round)
    • Nick Dunlap (+11.43 Total, +0.48 Per Round)
    • Talor Gooch (+11.34 Total, +0.47 Per Round)
    • Mackenzie Hughes (+10.29 Total, +0.43 Per Round)
    • Keith Mitchell (+10.27 Total, +0.43 Per Round)
    • Thorbjørn Olesen (+9.58 Total, +0.40 Per Round)
    • Alex Noren (+9.32 Total, +0.39 Per Round)
    • Justin Thomas (+9.14 Total, +0.38 Per Round)
    • Patrick Cantlay (+8.79 Total, +0.37 Per Round)
    • Cameron Young (+8.70 Total, +0.36 Per Round)

• Proximity Gained: 200+Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele (+659.88 Total, +27.50 Per Round)
    • Robert MacIntyre (+627.51 Total, +26.15 Per Round)
    • Sami Valimaki (+549.83 Total, +22.91 Per Round)
    • Thorbjørn Olesen (+518.44 Total, +21.60 Per Round)
    • Dean Burmester (+513.35 Total, +21.39 Per Round)
    • Byeong Hun An (+464.11 Total, +19.34 Per Round)
    • Vincent Norrman (+461.52 Total, +19.23 Per Round)
    • Keegan Bradley (+429.73 Total, +17.91 Per Round)
    • Ludvig Åberg (+407.01 Total, +16.96 Per Round)
    • Joaquin Niemann (+402.68 Total, +16.78 Per Round)

• Bogey Avoidance Gained
  • Valhalla Golf Club ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler (+30.12 Total, +1.25 Per Round)
    • Xander Schauffele (+24.42 Total, +1.02 Per Round)
    • Denny McCarthy (+22.81 Total, +0.95 Per Round)
    • Rory McIlroy (+20.81 Total, +0.87 Per Round)
    • Alex Noren (+20.25 Total, +0.84 Per Round)
    • Ludvig Åberg (+19.49 Total, +0.81 Per Round)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (+19.22 Total, +0.80 Per Round)
    • Aaron Rai (+16.88 Total, +0.70 Per Round)
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+16.38 Total, +0.68 Per Round)
    • Jason Day (+15.18 Total, +0.63 Per Round)

• Event/ Major History
  • Seven of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in one the previous two majors.
  • Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played):
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Brooks Koepka
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Jon Rahm
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Will Zalatoris
    • Dustin Johnson
    • Rickie Fowler

The Field:

This year’s PGA Championship will feature a total of 156 competitors.

Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

• Former PGA Champions.
• Winners of the last five U.S. Opens, Masters, and Open Championships
• Winners of the last three The Players Championships.
• Top 3 on the Official World Golf Ranking International Federation Ranking List.
• The current Senior PGA Champion.
• The low 15 scorers and ties in the previous PGA Championship.
• The 20 low scorers in the last PGA Professional Championship.
• The 70 leaders in PGA Championship points list.
• Members of the most recent United States and European Ryder Cup Teams who are ranked the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking as of one week before the start of the tournament.
• Any tournament winner co-sponsored or approved by the PGA Tour since the previous PGA Championship.
• Special Invitations offered by The PGA of America.
• The total field is a maximum of 156 players. Vacancies are filled by the first available player from the list of alternates (those below 70th place in official money standings).

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Brooks Koepka (’23, ’19, ’18), Justin Thomas (’22, ’17), Phil Mickelson (’21, ’05), Collin Morikawa (’20), Jimmy Walker (’16), Jason Day (’14), Rory McIlroy (’14, ’12), Jason Dufner (’13), Keegan Bradley (’11), Martin Kaymer (’10), Y.E. Yang (’09), Padraig Harrington (’08), Tiger Woods (’07, ’06, ’00, ’99), Shaun Michael (’03), Rich Beem (’02), John Daly (’91)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Andrew Svoboda, Andy Ogletree, Austin Eckroat, Ben Kohles, Ben Polland, David Puig, Evan Bowser, Jake Knapp, Jeff Kellen, Jesper Svensson, Josh Bevell, Kazuma Kobori, Keita Nakajima, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Preston Cole, Ryan Van Velzen, Ryo Hisatsune, Sebastian Soderberg, Tim Widing, Tracy Phillips, Vincent Norrman

• Players with Kentucky ties in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Justin Thomas – Louisville, Kentucky
  • College:
    • Adam Hadwin – University of Louisville
    • Tyler Collet – Eastern Kentucky

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • IN: Chirs Gotterup (won the Myrtle Beach Classic)
  • WD: Steve Stricker -> IN: Alex Smalley
  • IN: S.H. Kim (since Rory McIlroy won Wells Fargo Championship and was already IN)
  • WD: Taylor Montgomery (Injury) -> IN: C.T. Pan

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites in this week’s event and a summary of their recent form and course history.

Scottie Scheffler (+400) returns to competition following a hiatus of three events due to the birth of his child. Scheffler boasts an impressive record, winning four of his last five starts, including his second Major Championship at Augusta National. In his lone event without a victory, he secured a notable T2 finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. This marks Scheffler’s fifth PGA Championship appearance, having achieved top-ten finishes in three of his four prior outings. Notably, he attained a T2 finish at Oak Hill Country Club last year, his best performance in a PGA Championship to date.

Rory McIlroy (+700) arrives in formidable form, having clinched victory in his last two starts on the PGA Tour. His recent triumphs include the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, where he teamed up with Shane Lowry, and the Wells Fargo Championship, a title he has now secured four times. McIlroy returns to Valhalla, the site of his last Major Championship victory, the 2014 PGA Championship. This marks his sixteenth PGA Championship appearance, with two previous victories in this event.

Xander Schauffele (+1200) delivered a strong performance at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, securing a 2nd place finish. Although he has held two 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour this year without clinching a victory, Schauffele has consistently landed inside the top 25 in all ten events this season, with the exception of one. This marks his eighth PGA Championship appearance, with top-twenty finishes in four of his five prior outings.

Brooks Koepka (+1400) aims to defend his title after claiming victory at the 20234 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club. With three previous wins in the PGA Championship, Koepka boasts a formidable track record in this event. He enters this week’s competition fresh off a win at LIV Singapore, securing his fourth victory on the LIV Tour.

Jon Rahm (+1600) anticipates his eighth appearance in the PGA Championship, with his best finish in this event occurring in 2018 at Bellerive Country Club, where he secured a T4 finish. Despite finishing near the top of the leaderboard in every event during his first season on the LIV Tour, Rahm has yet to clinch victory.

Ludvig Aberg (+1800) returns to action after a brief hiatus, having withdrawn from the last three events due to a knee injury. With top-twenty finishes in six of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, Aberg has exhibited consistent performance. He made his first Major Championship appearance last month at the Masters, where he finished as the runner-up.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2200) commenced the season strongly with five top-10 finishes on the LIV Tour, culminating in a T6 finish at the Masters. However, in his last two events, he has not maintained the same dominance, finishing T26 at LIV Adelaide and T27 at LIV Singapore. DeChambeau secured a T4 finish at last year’s PGA Championship, matching his best performance at the event in 2021.

Max Homa (+2500) concluded with a T8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. His best performance in any Major Championship to date occurred at the Masters Tournament last month, where he secured a T3 finish. This marks his sixth PGA Championship appearance, with his best performance coming in 2022, where he finished T13 at Southern Hills.

Collin Morikawa (+2800) secured a T16 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, marking his third consecutive top-25 finish on the PGA Tour. Morikawa clinched victory at the 2020 PGA Championship held at TPC Harding Park and achieved a T3 finish at last month’s Masters Tournament, his best Major Championship performance since winning the 2021 Open Championship.

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score: 272.5 / -11.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

The winning score of the last three PGA Championships has been above 272.5. In 2014, the last time Valhalla Golf Club hosted the PGA Championship, the winning score was -16.

To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +375 / No -450)

Since 2010, the PGA Championship has ended in a playoff three times (2022, 2011, 2010).

Valhalla Golf Club has hosted the PGA Championship three times before with the tournament ending in a playoff twice (2000 & 1996). In 2000, Tiger Woods defeated Bob May and in 1996, Mark Brooks defeated Kenny Perry.

To place a bet at Superbook on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.

Hole-in-One:

• Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes +120/ No -140)

In 2014, the last time Valhalla Golf Club hosted the PGA Championship there were no holes-in-ones.

To place a bet at Superbook on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.

Facts and Figures:

• American golfers have been successful in eight of the last 10 editions, including each of the last eight.
• Seven of the last 10 winners were ranked in the world’s top 15.
• Seven of the last 10 champions had already banked some silverware in the season of their US PGA triumph.
• Eight of the last 10 champions had posted a top 20 on their previous start.
• Seven of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in one the previous two majors.
• Seven of the last 10 US PGA winners ranked in the top 30 for Driving Distance in the season of their victory.

All credit goes to Dave Tindall, be sure to check out his 10-year trends article here.

Recent Horses for Courses (Event – PGA Championship):

Horses for Courses (2014 PGA Championship – Valhalla Golf Club & 2008 Ryder Cup):

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event – PGA Championship):

Donkeys for Courses (2014 PGA Championship – Valhalla Golf Club & 2008 Ryder Cup):

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) – Oak Hill Country Club (East Course)
  • Price: 20-1

• 2022: Justin Thomas (-6) – Southern Hills Country Club
  • Price: 16-1

• 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) –  Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course)
  • Price: 250-1

• 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) – TPC Harding Park
  • Price: 35-1

• 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) – Bethpage Black Course
  • Price: 11-1

• 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) – Valhalla Golf Club
  • Price: 5-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Brooks Koepka
  • T5 – LIV Tulsa (LIV)
  • 3 – LIV Singapore (LIV)
  • T11 – LIV Adelaide (LIV)
  • T2 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
  • WON – LIV Orlando (LIV)

• 2022: Justin Thomas
  • T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
  • T35 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • T8 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T35 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T3 – Valspar Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Phil Mickelson
  • 69 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Valspar Championshi[p (PGA)
  • T21 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • T25 – The Honda Classic (PGA)

• 2020: Collin Morikawa
  • T20 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • T48 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • WON – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
  • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • T64 – RBC Heritage (PGA)

• 2019: Brooks Koepka
  • 4 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
  • T22 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
  • T2 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T56 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
  • T56 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)

• 2014: Rory McIlroy
  • WON – WGC-Bridgestone Invitational (PGA)
  • WON – The Open Championship (MAJ)
  • T14 – Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open (DPWT)
  • MC – Irish Open (DPWT)
  • T23 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Brooks Koepka

2022: Justin Thomas

2021: Phil Mickelson

2020: Collin Morikawa

• PGA Championship Debut

2019: Brooks Koepka

2014: Rory McIlroy

Picks (Outrights):

• Jon Rahm (+2000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

During his inaugural season on the LIV Tour, Jon Rahm showcased consistent prowess, landing within the top 10 in each of his initial seven events. Despite a stumble at Augusta last month, where he placed T45, he swiftly rebounded with impressive showings, securing a T3 finish at LIV Adelaide and a solid T10 at LIV Singapore.

With two Major Championships under his belt, Rahm is no stranger to triumphing in significant tournaments. His maiden Major victory occurred in 2021 at the U.S. Open hosted at Torrey Pines (South), a venue bearing resemblances to Valhalla this week. More recently, he claimed victory at the 2023 Masters Tournament after a riveting duel with Brooks Kopeka. Rahm boasts victories at courses with similarities to this week’s competition, including Olympia Fields (2020 BMW Championship) and Muirfield Village (2020 the Memorial Tournament). Despite being poised for a victory at Muirfield, Rahm’s 2021 campaign was marred by a COVID-19 withdrawal, despite holding a significant lead heading into Sunday.

Rahm possesses the requisite driving prowess for Valhalla, ranking 8th in Driving Distance among the field. His recent iron play has also been stellar, with a commendable 17th ranking in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds. The demand for strong long iron performance is paramount this week, an area where Rahm excels, sitting at 14th in Proximity Gained from 200+ Yards over the same period. At odds of 20-1, Rahm presents compelling value, considering his current form, Major track record, and overall skill set, all of which align favorably with this week’s course demands.

• Collin Morikawa (+3000) – FanDuel/ DraftKings
  • Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units

Collin Morikawa commenced the season with a promising trajectory, securing placements within the top 20 in three out of his initial four starts. However, his performance waned in the subsequent trio of events, failing to breach the top 40 in each. Yet, Morikawa found his footing once again at Augusta National last month, clinching a commendable T3 finish. Following this resurgence, Morikawa maintained his momentum with solid showings, landing at T9 in the RBC Heritage, T23 in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and T16 in the Wells Fargo Championship.

Morikawa’s emergence onto the PGA scene was marked by a spectacular victory at the 2020 PGA Championship in his tournament debut. Despite this dazzling debut, he has only managed to secure a top-10 finish in one other PGA Championship. Adding to his Major accolades, Morikawa triumphed at the 2021 Open Championship.

While Driving Distance holds significance at Valhalla due to its length, precision off the tee is equally vital. The dense rough, measuring 4″ thick, poses challenges for approach play, underscoring the importance of accuracy. Although Morikawa may not possess considerable length off the tee, his pinpoint accuracy compensates. Recent events have showcased improvements in his short game and putting, areas that historically posed challenges. With his current form trending positively and a proven track record in Major Championships, Morikawa appears poised for contention this week. Should he refine his iron play, Morikawa is primed to feature prominently on the leaderboard come Sunday.

• Max Homa (+3500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Despite not clinching a victory this season, Max Homa has showcased consistent performance with six top-20 finishes in his initial ten starts. Building up to the Masters, Homa exhibited promising form, securing a T16 at The Genesis Invitational, a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and a T25 at the Valero Texas Open. His campaign at the Masters marked a career highlight, achieving a commendable T3 finish. Subsequently, he encountered a stumble at the RBC Heritage, finishing T55, but swiftly regained momentum at Quail Hollow (a comparable course), clinching a T8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Beyond Quail Hollow, Homa has demonstrated proficiency at similar venues. Notably, he claimed victory at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, secured a T5 at the 2023 BMW Championship (Olympia Fields), and achieved T5 and T6 finishes at the Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village).

Homa’s skill set aligns favorably with Valhalla Golf Club’s demands. He boasts impressive distance off the tee, consistently outpacing the field in yardage gains over ten of his first eleven starts this season. His approach play, particularly with long irons, has shown positive trends. While his short game presented challenges in the past season, marked improvements have been evident this season. Although a Major Championship victory has eluded him thus far, his performance at the Masters suggests that he may be on the cusp of achieving this milestone in the near future.

• Joaquin Niemann (+4000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Niemann has been delivering stellar performances throughout this season, securing victories at prestigious events such as the DP World Tour’s ISPS Handa Australian Open and two triumphs on the LIV Tour at LIV Mayakoba and LIV Jeddah. Despite receiving a special exemption, he made an impactful appearance at the first Major Championship last month, finishing T22. Continuing his impressive form, Niemann secured a T3 finish at LIV Adelaide and a solid T7 at LIV Singapore.

His proficiency extends to longer courses, evident in his notable finishes at Olympia Fields (T3), Torrey Pines (T6), and Muirfield Village (T3), all renowned venues.

While Bryson Dechambeau is celebrated for his prodigious drives on the LIV Tour, Niemann isn’t far behind. He currently holds the 2nd rank in Driving Distance amongst the field this season. Furthermore, Niemann exhibits prowess off the tee, ranking 7th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over the last 24 rounds. Yet, his excellence isn’t confined to the tee box; Niemann’s iron play is equally impressive. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Approach and an impressive 10th in Proximity Gained from 200+ Yards.

• Tyrrell Hatton (+6000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

Tyrell Hatton commenced the season on the PGA Tour, participating in the initial two events before transitioning to Legion VII, Jon Rahm’s new team on the LIV Tour. Across the seven events he’s contested this season on the LIV Tour, Hatton boasts an impressive record, securing four top-10 finishes and only encountering a single instance outside the top 20.

Last month’s Masters witnessed Hatton’s notable performance, culminating in a T9 finish. Notably, he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 27th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 27th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee at the event.

Hatton’s prowess extends to comparable courses, evident in his commendable finishes such as a T3 at Quail Hollow (2023 BMW Championship), T12 at Muirfield Village (2023 the Memorial Tournament), and T16 at Olympia Fields (2020 BMW Championship).

While Hatton may not wield the longest drives in the field, he maintains a respectable average of over 303 yards this season. His overall game appears to be in fine form as the competition shifts to Valhalla. Despite occasional streaks in his putting performance, Hatton demonstrates proficiency on Bentgrass surfaces, ranking 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) over the last 24 rounds. Although he possesses just one PGA Tour victory and a best Major Championship finish of T7 at the Open Championship in 2016, Hatton’s game has exhibited improvement. Recent PGA Championship outings saw him secure a T15 at Oak Hill and a T23 at Southern Hills. While he may not embody the conventional composed demeanor often associated with navigating the rigors of Major Championship courses, Hatton undeniably possesses the skill set requisite for Major triumphs.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Tommy Fleetwood (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Tommy Fleetwood has demonstrated consistency, securing placements within the top 15 in three out of his last four events. A notable highlight during this stretch was his impressive T3 finish at the Masters Tournament. In his recent outing at the Wells Fargo Championship, Fleetwood concluded at 13th place, showcasing strong performance metrics with an 8th rank in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and a 17th rank in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Fleetwood has notably excelled in the past two editions of the PGA Championship, achieving a T18 finish at Oak Hill Country Club last year and an impressive T5 at Southern Hills in 2022.

• Justin Thomas (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Justin Thomas commenced the season on a promising note, securing three consecutive top-15 finishes. However, he encountered a rough patch in his following five events, enduring three missed cuts during that period. Despite a setback at the Masters where he missed the cut, Thomas swiftly regained his stride the subsequent week at the RBC Heritage, finishing at a commendable T5. At the recent Wells Fargo Championship, Thomas concluded with a T21 finish.

Thomas boasts an impressive record in the PGA Championship, clinching victory twice, first in 2017 at Quail Hollow and then most recently in 2022 at Southern Hills.

In the past 24 rounds, Thomas has demonstrated proficiency, ranking 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 19th in Driving Distance Gained, and 31st in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Despite historical challenges with his putting, Thomas showcased improvements in this aspect in his last two starts, gaining strokes in this category.

• Cameron Smith (+175) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units

Cameron Smith has yet to secure a victory on the LIV Tour this season, but he boasts two impressive runner-up finishes. Notably, he clinched one of these second-place finishes last week at LIV Singapore. Smith showcased his prowess at the first Major of the season, securing a commendable T6 finish at the Masters Tournament. His performance at Augusta was particularly notable, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

In recent editions of the PGA Championship, Smith has performed admirably, achieving a T9 finish at Oak Hill Country Club and a solid T13 at Southern Hills.

Over the past 24 rounds, Smith has demonstrated consistency in key aspects of his game, ranking 22nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 24th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and an impressive 9th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass).

• Byeong-Hun An (+220) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units

Byeong-Hun An arrives this week in splendid form, securing notable finishes of T4 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship in his last two outings. His performance at the first Major Championship of the season was equally impressive, concluding at T16 while ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 8th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 10th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach. While An faced challenges with his putting at the Masters, he has demonstrated improvement in this area in his recent outings, gaining strokes on the green in both instances.

An possesses the requisite Driving Distance off the tee to contend at Valhalla this week. Furthermore, his iron play has been exemplary of late, ranking 29th in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field over the last 24 rounds. Given the significance of long iron play this week, An’s proficiency in this aspect is particularly noteworthy, as he ranks 6th in Proximity Gained from 200+ Yards over the same period.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

• Alex Noren (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Alex Noren has maintained a flawless record this season, having yet to miss a cut. While he initially struggled to break into the top 20 in his first four events, he has since embarked on an impressive streak. His remarkable journey commenced at PGA National, where he secured a T9 finish. Subsequently, Noren has consistently landed inside the top 20 in four of his last six events.

While Driving Distance holds significance this week at Valhalla due to its length, accuracy off the tee is equally crucial. The thick rough at Valhalla, measuring 4″, presents challenges for approach play, emphasizing the importance of precision off the tee. Although Noren may not possess considerable length off the tee, his accuracy compensates for it. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 39th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Additionally, Noren excels in Par 4 Scoring for distances of 450-500 yards, and Par 5 Scoring for distances of 550-600 yards, further highlighting his versatility and capability to navigate the challenges posed by Valhalla.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Units

Matchups:

• Cameron Smith (-135) over Dustin Johnson – SuperBook
• Jordan Smith (-125) over Thriston Lawrence – SuperBook

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 6.27 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.