We head to the first weekend at Saratoga with some money in our pockets as we hit Dornoch at 17-1 to win the Belmont Stakes!

The first weekend of Saratoga Race Course is upon us. This is truly one of my favorite weekends of the year and I can not wait to be there in August. The morning dew coming off the track as horses warm up, the run for picnic tables when the gates open, the coffee shops on Broadway packed with everyone studying the program, it’s truly a horse ball paradise. For everyone who’s been, I don’t need to get into the Carolina Street antics when the races are over but for anyone who hasn’t been and loves horse racing, Saratoga is the place to be.

Please keep in mind my handicapping style lines up with Saratoga (the Graveyard of favorites) where I usually try to beat the favorite in each race. I understand everyone has a different style of handicapping, which is the beauty of horse racing, so if that’s not normally your style please feel free to use my top picks underneath in your exotics. Also, if your units are different than mine please feel free to adjust accordingly. As always best of luck and let’s get into the three graded stakes races taking place on Saturday at the Spaaaaaaaaaa.

Weather:

• Day: Mostly sunny and humid 88 F, 12% Chance of Rain

Barring any unforeseen showers, we anticipate a fast track at Saratoga Race Course this week.

Kelso Stakes (Grade 3)

Race History:

The Kelso Stakes, previously known as the Forbidden Apple Stakes, was named in honor of Forbidden Apple, who won the 2001 Grade I Manhattan Handicap and the Grade II Kelso Handicap twice. The event’s inaugural running took place on Independence Day in 2014 at Belmont Park. In 2019, the race was moved to Saratoga and was classified as a Grade III event by the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. In 2023, NYRA announced that the event would be renamed the Kelso Stakes, in honor of Kelso, a horse who was a five-time American Horse of the Year from 1960 to 1964.

Race Information:

• Date: July 13th, 2024
• Track: Saratoga Race Course
• Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
• Event Grade: Grade III
• Race: 2
• Post Time: 1:07 PM ET
• Length: 1 Mile
• Purse: $175,000
• Division: Open | Four Years Old and Upwards
• Surface: Inner Turf
• Wagers: Exacta ($1), Quinella ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 2 & 3, Pick 3 ($1) (2-4), Pick 4 (.50) (2-5)

Field:

Horse Preview:

Call Me Harry had several good performances heading into 2024 finishing inside the money in each of his last five starts. However, this year the 8-year-old gelding finished 8th in an $80k Optional Claiming race at Belmont at the Big A in May and more recently 4th in an $62k Optional Claiming race at the same track. He’ll make his graded stakes debut in the Kelso Stakes so we’ll see if he can improve on his two previous performances this year. Call Me Harry has raced well at Saratoga in the past but will have to run better than he’s shown if he wants to contend here. Luis Saez has ridden this horse in the past and has had success finishing inside the money in each of his five previous mounts.

Mysterious Night is coming off one of the best performances of his career running 2nd in the Grade III Poker Stakes. In that race, he beat fellow entrants Talk of the Nation who ran third, and Carl Spackler who finished fifth. That race also took place at Saratoga last month so he’s well accustomed to the surface and track. One change for this race is that Flavien Prat will take over the mount from William Buck who has ridden this horse in every start prior.

Northern Invader is coming off a 4th place finish in the Grade III Arlington Stakes where he was outmatched down the stretch. In his only other Graded Stakes race, he ran 5th in the Grade II Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Downs. This colt has certainly shown potential flashes of greatness on a few occasions but has struggled to put it all together when he takes a step up in class. He’ll certainly try to get out to an early speed which has proven as a successful strategy for him in the past but may not be able to given the speed some of these other front runners possess. If he can put everything together he’s certainly a contender, but that’s a big if. Jose L. Ortiz will retain the mount.

Talk of the Nation is coming off a 3rd in the Grade III Poker Stakes where he was bested by fellow entrant Mysterious Night who ran second finishing a head in front of him. In his only other race this year, he finished 2nd in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs losing to fellow entrant Carl Spackler by a head. He’s seemed to enjoy the switch to turf and has posted some impressive speed figures in his last two races despite not winning so he’s certainly a contender. Talk of the Nation has run his best races from the front so I’m sure Irad Ortiz, Jr. will try to adopt a more aggressive strategy in this race.

Carl Spackler won his first race of the year beating fellow entrant Talk of the Nation in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs. In that race, he posted a 98 Beyer Speed Figure which tied his career best. In his last race, he ran 5th in the Grade III Poker Stakes behind fellow entrants Mysterious Night (2nd) and Talk of the Nation (3rd). He didn’t get a great trip in that race and faltered down the stretch. However, this colt has done well at Saratoga winning two of his three previous races at this venue. He draws the outside in a field of early speed so I would expect him to hang back at the start and take more of a closing approach to this race hoping the front runners tire themselves out. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount.

MAIN TRACK ONLY

Based on the project forecast, I don’t see this race being moved off the turf so I’m going to exclude him from my handicapping process. If this race gets moved off the turf, I will update my article so be sure to stay tuned.

Projected Race Setup:

Front Runners

• #4 Talk of the Nation

Off the Pace

• #1 Call Me Harry
• #3 Northern Invader

Middle of the Pact

• #2 Mysterious Night (Ire)

Back of the Pact

• #5 Carl Spackler (Ire)

Picks:

I don’t love these races with small fields so my approach to this race is going to be fairly straightforward. I have one horse to win and that’s about it. Given the odds, the payouts won’t be great so I don’t like to go overboard with my bankroll. If you’d like to take a different approach and maybe single one/two horses in a Pick 3-5 that’s also not a bad call.

• $5 WIN – #5 Carl Spacker
  • TICKET COST $5.00

He’s coming off a bad performance in the Grade III Poker Stakes but has proven he can rebound from a bad performance. He’s now well rested coming off just over a month’s layoff so he should be ready to go. There’s a lot of early speed in this race which could set up nicely for him down the stretch if Gaffalione can put him just off the pace. He has the speed to compete in this race and has proven that he can beat the other horses in this race. At 2-1, it’s certainly not a great price if I’m being honest, but that’s why I’m singling him here in the Kelso Stakes. If you’re looking for another horse to bet in this race I would look at the #4 Talk of the Nation.

Diana Stakes (Grade 1)

Race History:

The Diana Stakes was inaugurated in 1939 and is named in honor of the Roman goddess Diana, who is associated with hunting, forests, and wild animals. The Diana Stakes is typically run in mid-July and is open to fillies and mares four years old and up. The race is contested over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the turf. The Diana Stakes has held various grading statuses over the years but since 2003 is classified as a Grade I event.

Race Information:

• Date: July 13th, 2024
• Track: Saratoga Race Course
• Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
• Event Grade: Grade I
• Race: 10
• Post Time: 5:43 PM ET
• Length: 1 1/8 Miles
• Purse: $500,000
• Division: Open | Four Years Old and Upwards
• Surface: Inner Turf
• Wagers: Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 10 & 11, Pick 3 ($1) (10-12)

Field:

Horse Preview:

Moira will run for the first time this year. In her last race, she finished 3rd in the Grade I Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf despite having a rough start. Despite finishing 3rd, she posted her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103. Her last win came back in September of last year at Woodbine, where she’s made most of her starts, in the Grade II Canadian Stakes. This filly has hit the board in 11 of her 13 career starts and is a contender in this race. She’s also coming off a significant layoff but has had a layoff of a similar time in the past (2022 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf -> 2023 Belle Mahone Stakes) that has proved to be advantageous. Tyler Gaffalione will take over the mount.

Coppice shipped over to the United States in May of this year to run in the Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes where she ran 2nd losing by a nose to fellow entrant Chili Flag. Despite having an awkward start, she posted an impressive Beyer Speed Figure of 97. In her most recent race, she finished 6th in the Grade I Just a Game Stakes where he had a poor start again. Lanfranco Dettori will retain the mount.

Mission of Joy has races three times this season only hitting the board once which game in her most recent race the Grade I Just a Game Stakes at Saratoga. In that race, she was beaten by fellow entrants Chili Flag who won, and Whitebeam, who ran 2nd. Despite not having won in her last two starts, she hasn’t been that far off, and with a better trip, this mare is certainly a contender and one to keep an eye on especially at this price. John R. Velazquez will retain the mount.

Didia has had an impressive 2024 campaign winning the Grade II TAA Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes and more recently the Grade I New York Stakes where she posted the best speed figure of her career. In the Grade I New York Stakes, she beat fellow entrant Neecie Marie, who ran 2nd by a length and a half. Jose L. Ortiz will retain the mount.

Gina Romantica has raced twice this year finishing 7th in the Grade I Jenny Wiley Stakes and 5th in the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. She’s had a disappointing start to the year after a strong finish to the 2023 season where she won the Grade I First Lady Stakes. Manuel Franco will take over the mount.

Whitebeam has raced twice this year finishing runner-up in both the Grade III Beaugay Stakes and the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. Her last win was at last year’s Grade I Diana Stakes. Flavien Prat will retain the mount.

Fluffy Socks has raced four times this year winning her most recent race the Grade III Gallorette Stakes by over seven lengths. She was the heavy favorite in that race and posted her bestBeyer Speed Figure of the year. In last year’s Diana Stakes, she ran 5th failing to kick down the stretch. Joel Rosario will take over the mount.

Neecie Marie started off her 2024 campaign by winning the Grade III Beaugay Stakes and finishing runner-up in the Grade I New York Stakes behind fellow entrant Didia. Her pace is certainly a concern in this race but has shown she shouldn’t be underestimated. Luis Saez will take over the mount.

Evvie Jets has raced twice this year finishing 8th in the Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes and 4th in the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. Her last win was in the Grade II Ballston Spa Stakes which took place at Saratoga. Dylan Davis will retain the mount.

Chili Flag has won her last three starts including the Grade III Honey Fox Stakes, Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes, and most recently, the Grade I Just a Game Stakes. Since Chad Brown took over training this horse, she’s turned into an absolute monster on the turf. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will retain the mount.

MAIN TRACK ONLY

Based on the project forecast, I don’t see this race being moved off the turf so I’m going to exclude him from my handicapping process. If this race gets moved off the turf, I will update my article so be sure to stay tuned.

Projected Race Setup:

Front Runners

• #6 Whitebeam (GB)

Off the Pace

• #9 Evvie Jets

Middle of the Pact

• #2 Coppice (GB)
• #3 Mission of Joy
• #4 Didia (Arg)
• #5 Gina Romantica

Back of the Pact

• #10 Chili Flag (Fr)

Closers

• #1 Moira
• #7 Fluffy Socks
• #8 Neecie Marie

Picks:

• $5 WIN – #1 Moira, #4 Didia
  • TICKET COST $10.00

• $2 EXACTA – 1, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
  • TICKET COST $16.00

Sanford Stakes (Grade 3)

Race History:

The first Sanford Memorial Stakes was run in 1913. The race was named in honor of the Sanford family, prominent horse owners and breeders from Amsterdam, New York, who had a significant impact on horse racing in the region. Typically run in mid-July, the Sanford Stakes is open to two-year-old horses and is contested over a distance of 6 furlongs (three-quarters of a mile) on a dirt track. The distance and conditions of the Sanford Stakes have evolved over the years, but it has remained a key event for assessing the potential of two-year-old horses. It is seen as an early indicator of talent and often features horses that go on to compete in other major races, including the Triple Crown series. The Sanford Stakes has held different grading statuses over the years and is currently classified as a Grade III race. One of the most famous editions of the Sanford Stakes was in 1919 when the legendary Man o’ War suffered the only defeat of his career, losing to a horse named Upset.

Race Information:

• Date: July 13th, 2024
• Track: Saratoga Race Course
• Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
• Event Grade: Grade III
• Race: 11
• Post Time: 6:17 PM ET
• Length: 6 Furlongs
• Purse: $175,000
• Division: Open | Two Years Olds
• Surface: Dirt
• Wagers: Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 11 & 12

Field:

Horse Preview:

Mentee is a full brother to last year’s juvenile champion Fierceness. This colt won his first race, a $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A by a nose after having a five-length lead entering the stretch. His first race was at 5 furlongs so we’ll see if he can handle the increase in distance after barely winning back in June. In that race, he posted an impressive 88 Beyer Speed Figure, the top speed figure from any horse in the field. John Velazquez will retain the mount.

Mr. Squeaky Wheels won a 4 1/2 furlong $30k Maiden Special Weight at Presque Isle Downs in his debut beating the rest of the field by 3 1/4 lengths. That race was on a synthetic surface so he’ll make his first start on dirt this weekend. He won that race with a 55 Beyer Speed Figure against a much weaker field than he’ll face in the Sanford Stakes.  Jose Ortiz will pick up the mount.

Baby Dukes won a 4 1/2 furlong $52k Maiden Special Weight at Presque Isle Downs in his debut beating the rest of the field by 4 lengths. That race was on the main track so he’ll be accustomed to the surface. He won that race with a 61 Beyer Speed Figure. While this will certainly be a step up in class, he did have an impressive debut and showed he can certainly build on that. He’s a long shot to watch out for in this race. Jose Lezcano will pick up the mount.

Soontobeking made his debut in a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight over a muddy Aqueduct track where he ran third. He didn’t have a great trip in that race as he was bumped off the start. In his next start, he won a 5 1/2 furlong $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A. He also didn’t have a great trip in that race either but managed to close down the stretch winning by a head posting a 60 Beyer Speed Figure. The Sanford will certainly be a step up in class and he’ll need to improve on his past two starts if he wants to be a contender. However, if he gets a clean trip and the pace is slow, he may be able to close on the leader. Soontobeking is also coming off a long layoff so he should be well rested. I would consider using this horse to use underneath. Eric Cancel will retain the mount.

Three Echoes won a 5 furlong $117k Maiden Special Weight at Churchill Downs in his debut beating the rest of the field by three-quarter-lengths. He won that race despite being bumped at the start posting a 73 Beyer Speed Figure. He took a step up in class his next race in the Tremont and finished third behind fellow entrant Studlydoright, who won. However, he did improve in that race posting a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s run well in both of his first two career starts and if he can get a better trip, he’s a contender. Flavien Prat will retain the mount.

Studlydoright won a 4 1/2 furlong $52k Maiden Special Weight at Laurel Park over a sloppy surface in his debut beating the rest of the field by one and a half lengths. He posted a 61 Beyer Speed Figure in that race which isn’t overly impressive but was able to close well despite the poor track conditions. He took a step up in class his next race in the Tremont and won beating fellow entrant Three Echoes, who ran third. He didn’t have a great start in that race but was able to close well even with the increase in distance to 5 1/2 furlongs. Studlydoright improved in his second race posting an 82 Beyer Speed Figure. He has the pace to compete in this race and is a contender. Xavier Perez will retain the mount.

War Tax won a 5 furlong $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A in his debut beating the rest of the field by two lengths. It was a fairly weak field where he posted a 66 Beyer Speed Figure in that race which isn’t overly impressive. He took a step up in class his next race in the Bashform Manor at Churchill Downs and finished 8th after a poor start. He wasn’t great in that race and looked tired so it’ll be interesting to see how this horse performs coming off an extremely short layoff (13 days). Javier Castellano will pick up the mount.

Baby Dukes won a 5 1/2 furlong $75k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont at the Big A in his debut beating the rest of the field by an outstanding 10 lengths. That race was on the main track so he’ll be accustomed to the surface. He won that race with a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. While this will certainly be a step up in class, he did have an impressive debut and showed he can certainly build on that. Mo Plex is a contender in this race and should be considered, especially with the current odds. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will pick up the mount.

Projected Race Setup:

Front Runners

• #1 Mentee

Off the Pace

• #3 Baby Dukes
• #8 Mo Plex

Middle of the Pact

• #5 Three Echoes
• #7 War Tax

Back of the Pact

• #2 Mr. Squeaky Wheels

Closers

• #4 Soontobeking
• #6 Studlydoright

Picks:

We have some pretty decent odds in this field so I don’t mind spending a little more money than I usually do on a race. Mentee is the morning line favorite currently listed a 6-5 after an impressive debut. While he is the deserving favorite in this race, you know my strategy by now which is to look at other horses to beat him.

• $5 WIN – #6 Studlydoright, #8 Mo Plex
  • TICKET COST $10.00

Studlydorigh is the only two-time winner in the field and has shown his ability to improve in each race. He has the closing ability to do well in this race and with Xavier Perez retaining the mount he knows how to set this colt up for success heading down the stretch. Mo Plex put together an impressive debut winning by ten lengths. He was on the outside post in that race and with Irad Ortix Jr. retaining the mount I’m sure he’ll follow a similar strategy in the Sanford.

• $2 EXACTA – 6, 8 / 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
  • TICKET COST $16.00

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.