2024 THE PLAYERS Championship – Preview & Picks

Scottie Scheffler clinched victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, showcasing a remarkable change to a mallet putter. Mastering the greens like never before, he gained over a stroke putting, leaving no room for doubt as he cruised to a 5-stroke triumph. This victory marks his seventh career PGA Tour win, cementing his prowess on the golfing stage.

In contrast to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Puerto Rico Open delivered a thrilling conclusion as Brice Garnett and Erik Barnes engaged in a playoff showdown. After a gripping four-hole battle, Garnett emerged triumphant, securing his second career PGA Tour title. His previous victory dates back to the 2018 Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship. Our contender, Hayden Springer, fell just one shot shy of joining the playoff drama.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

As THE PLAYERS Championship celebrates its 50th anniversary, anticipation brews for the prestigious event, often dubbed the fifth major, set to unfold this week. Boasting the strongest field of the season thus far on the PGA Tour, TPC Sawgrass becomes the battleground for golf’s elite. Alongside seasoned Tour veterans, 23 rookies are poised to make their mark as they tee off in this illustrious tournament.

Scottie Scheffler sets his sights on defending his title at THE PLAYERS Championship. His ambition extends to joining an esteemed group of just five individuals who have secured multiple victories at TPC Sawgrass: Tiger Woods, Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Steve Elkington, and Hal Sutton—all distinguished major champions.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 14th, 2024 – March 17th 2024
• Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, United States
• Course: TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
• Course Type: Florida/ Southeast
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,275 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .100”
• Fairways: Champion fine rye overseed .275”
• Rough: Champion fine rye overseed 3.5”
• Bunkers: 92
• Water Hazard(s): 18 (In-Play on 18 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $25,000,000/$4,500,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 750
• Field: 144 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Three Hole Aggregate (16-17-18)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 72.45 (+0.45), Rank 12 of 49
  • 2022: 72.62 (+0.62), Rank 12 of 50
  • 2021: 72.42 (+0.42), Rank 16 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: +2
  • 2022: +2
  • 2021: E

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

Since THE PLAYERS Championship returned to March, another course of notable interest is Kapalua. The last four champions of this tournament have all showcased impressive performances in The Sentry Tournament of Champions leading up to this event: Scottie Scheffler in 2023 (T7 at The Sentry), Cameron Smith in 2022 (1st at The Sentry), Justin Thomas in 2021 (3rd at The Sentry), and Rory McIlroy in 2019 (T4 at The Sentry).

 

• Designer Link ( Pete Dye (1980)):
  • PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – Pete Dye (1986) – The American Express
  • Harbour Town Golf Links – Pete Dye (1969) – RBC Heritage
  • TPC Louisiana – Pete Dye (2004) – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
  • TPC River Highlands – Pete Dye (1982) – Travelers Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, March 14th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM

• Round 2: Friday, March 15th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM

• Round 3: Saturday, March 16th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 2:00 PM
  • NBC – 2:00 PM – 7:00 PM

• Round 4: Sunday, March 17th, 2024
  • ESPN+ – 7:30 AM – 1:00 PM
  • NBC – 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 9 mp/h NE, 72% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
• Friday: PM Thunderstorms 83 F, 11 mp/h S, 71% Humidity, 43% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 10 mp/h WSW, 72% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 84 F, 13 mp/h SW, 71% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain

 

Early in the week, Northeast Florida is expected to remain rain-free, with temperatures gradually increasing at TPC Sawgrass’ PLAYERS Stadium Course. Despite moderate rainfall over the weekend softening the course, it should dry out in time for Thursday’s opening round of the 50th PLAYERS Championship. While there’s a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday through the weekend, no significant rainfall is anticipated.

This year’s TOUR schedule has already seen weather impacts, including the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which was shortened to 54 holes (won by Wyndham Clark), and a Monday finish at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches earlier this month (won by Austin Eckroat). The WM Phoenix Open also experienced multiple delays before Nick Taylor claimed victory in a playoff just before darkness descended.

In the previous year’s PLAYERS Championship, heavy rains on Friday necessitated the completion of the second round on Saturday morning. The 2022 edition of the tournament concluded on Monday, marking the event’s first Monday finish since 2005.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

THE PLAYERS Championship debuted in 1974, conceived by then PGA Tour commissioner, Deane Beman. Initially held at Atlanta Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia, in early September, it subsequently rotated through various venues, including Colonial Country Club in 1975 and Inverrary Country Club in 1976. From 1977 to 1982, the event found its home at Sawgrass Country Club, near its current location, TPC Sawgrass. Since 1982, the iconic Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass has been the tournament’s host.

Pete Dye, renowned for his work at Harbour Town Golf Links, was chosen as the architect for the Stadium Course. The PGA TOUR Commissioner purchased the 415-acre plot for just $1, with Dye leading the course’s design, alongside input from Beman. Construction commenced in 1978, with the course opening for play in 1980.

Distinguished by its innovative design, the Stadium Course revolutionized the viewing experience, with holes strategically positioned in lower-level areas to optimize spectator sightlines. The layout, featuring winding holes and elevation changes, allows viewers to observe multiple holes simultaneously.

The Stadium Course has undergone numerous renovations to enhance both playability and spectator experience. A significant overhaul in 2006, spearheaded by Pete Dye, included hole redesigns and the implementation of improved drainage and irrigation systems.

From 2007 to 2017, THE PLAYERS Championship was held in May but returned to March in 2018.

Distinct from other tournaments, THE PLAYERS utilizes a three-hole aggregate playoff format introduced in 2014. Since this change, the tournament has only seen one playoff, occurring in 2015 when Rickie Fowler emerged victorious.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 3, Jack Nicklaus (1974, 1976, 1978)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Greg Norman (1994)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 62, Tom Hoge (Round 3, 2023)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by Pete Dye in 1980, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass features a classic Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

TPC Sawgrass poses a formidable challenge, ranking among the toughest courses on the Tour outside of the Majors. In the last three editions of THE PLAYERS Championship, the scoring average has remained over par. In 2023, only one hole (No. 12) boasted a scoring average under par, excluding the four Par 5s.

While not excessively long at 7,275 yards, PGA National sits near the Tour average, slightly shorter in comparison. The fairways, with an average width of 28.0 yards, rank as the 8th narrowest on the Tour, making Strokes Gained Off the Tee a crucial category. Green sizes average around 5,500 square feet, relatively smaller compared to other Tour courses.

The course’s primary defense lies in its water hazards, which come into play on every hole. Despite its modest length, these hazards often necessitate cautious layups on specific holes. Additionally, TPC Sawgrass is highly susceptible to winds, posing a significant challenge for approach shots.

The four Par 3’s range between 137 yards and 237 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 175-200 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 13, 181 yards, Par 3: “A water hazard protects this picturesque par 3 all the way down the left side. Players must clear or maneuver around the water hazard when the pin placements are to the left. The green has three separate tiers. The highest is the right front quarter. The right rear quarter is just slightly lower and slopes away from the tee. The entire left side of the green slopes drastically toward the water. The green also is protected by two small and deep maintained bunkers. Spectators can get a great view from all the mounded areas on this medium length par 3. Short to middle irons will be the choice of the majority of players.”

No. 17, 137 yards, Par 3: “In its brief history, the island hole has become one of the most renowned of its kind in the world. Each year it is the most popular among spectators. The signature hole is a short length par 3 with a wide green that narrows to the right side. The right side of the green is protected by a small maintained bunker, which sometimes will be a relief to players who come up short of the green. Club selection on this hole is critically important; with the tricky winds of spring, the Championship could be won or lost here. A larger spectator mound has been created behind the green.”

There are ten Par 4’s at TPC Sawgrass with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 12 is the shortest listed at 369 yards with the longest being No. 14, playing 481 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 18 (+0.348).

No. 6, 393 yards, Par 4: “This hole is a perfect example of target golf and Pete Dye once called it the most beautiful on the course. The drive must avoid dense palm and pine trees on the right and two fairway bunkers and a lateral water hazard on the left. The slightly elevated green is protected by maintained bunkers, grass bunkers and clustered palm trees. The specific landing area on this hole offers players a level lie for their approach to the two-tiered green, which slopes down from right to left and back to front. Uneven and awkward lies, the result of shots that narrowly missed their targets, will cause higher scores on this hole. The players’ short games will be tested here on a daily basis. Visually, players will be greeted by an expanded water hazard down the left side of the hole in 2017.”

No. 18, 462 yards, Par 4: “A fantastic dogleg left awaits the players as they prepare to finish their rounds. Constant accuracy is of the utmost importance on this hole. Water guards the full length of the hole to the left, while large spectator mounds and trees line the right side. A collection of grass bunkers is situated in the front-right section of the green, while a lone maintained bunker stops shots hit left and long. This 18th has become one of the premier finishing holes in golf. There is a new spectator mound behind the green.”

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 2, No. 9, No. 11, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.522.

No. 9, 602 yards, Par 5: “The ninth hole is considered by many to be one of the finest par 5s in the country. A large lake and bunker to the right of the fairway collect stray drives, while woods to the left hinder second shots. The most important shot on this hole is the second. This shot will be a long iron or fairway wood directed to the right side of the fairway. To the left, a wandering fairway bunker and large oak trees crowd the small second-shot landing area. The green is very thin and severely sloped from the front to the back right. A severely banked maintained bunker guards the left and rear of the green, along with a small maintained bunker. Another small bunker in the front causes problems for players coming up short. Approach shots to the green will be with a middle to short iron. As this hole progresses from the tee to the green, it becomes more narrow and demanding. This hole can make or break a good outward nine holes. There is a new spectator mound behind the green.”

No. 11, 558 yards, Par 5: “This hole is a strategically designed middle-length par 5, which presents a variety of possibilities and potential disasters. Players attempting to reach this green in two shots must have a long and accurate drive down the right side. An immense fairway bunker stops shots hit through the left of the fairway, and dense trees knock down shots hit left of the driving area. Large overhanging trees crowd the preferred right side. Because the fairway is split by a lateral water hazard and two large bunkers, the player can elect to hit a middle iron to the fairway area on the right, which is guarded by a large oak tree. From this position, a short iron to wedge is needed for the third shot. A more daring alternative is to approach the green from the left side of the split fairway. This alternative requires a second shot lofted high enough to clear another oak tree and the continuing bunker. The large maintained bunker runs the length of the second shot landing area and continues up and around the green. The lateral water hazard that splits the fairway continues around the back of the green. One maintained bunker covers the front of the green. The left side of the green presents a tricky recovery from a closely-mown area.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.58	278.43
Driving Accuracy	62%	62%
GIR Percentage	66%	63%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.08	30.83
Scrambling Percentage	58%	54%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.63

 

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Rory McIlroy (Total: +24.98, Per Round: +1.04)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +19.71, Per Round: +0.82)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +18.24, Per Round: +0.76)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +16.92, Per Round: +0.70)
    • Vincent Norrman (Total: +14.34, Per Round: +0.60)

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Each of the past four winners ranked 6th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +29.95, Per Round: +1.25)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +24.15, Per Round: +1.01)
    • Tony Finau (Total: +22.66, Per Round: +0.94)
    • Corey Conners (Total: +20.53, Per Round: +0.86)
    • Shane Lowry (Total: +16.22, Per Round: +0.68)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes at TPC Sawgrass are TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis / velvet bentgrass .100”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Ben Griffin (Total: +22.23, Per Round: +0.93)
    • Chad Ramey (Total: +21.36, Per Round: +0.89)
    • Billy Horschel (Total: +21.21, Per Round: +0.88)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +20.71, Per Round: +0.86)
    • Sahith Theegala (Total: +18.37, Per Round: +0.77)

 

• Strokes Gained: Total Pete Dye Designs
  • Pete Dye’s masterpiece, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, stands as a testament to his distinctive design ethos. Known for crafting layouts that challenge and reward specific skill sets, Dye’s creation at TPC Sawgrass demands a level of prowess possessed by only a select few players.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +53.18, Per Round: +2.22)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +51.91, Per Round: +2.16)
    • Patrick Cantlay (Total: +44.34, Per Round: +1.85)
    • Keegan Bradley (Total: +40.54, Per Round: +1.69)
    • Russell Henley (Total: +36.27, Per Round: +1.51)

 

• Driving Accuracy
  • The course features narrow fairways lined with thick rough and strategically placed bunkers. Precision off the tee is crucial to avoid the punishing rough and find the best angles for approach shots.

• • Leaders in this category in this season (2024):
    • Ryan Moore (74.39%)
    • Aaron Rai (74.19%)
    • Zac Blair (72.96%)
    • Alex Noren (70.48%)
    • Nate Lashley (70.10%)

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Sawgrass range between 175-200 Yards. The two outliers are No. 8 which is listed at 237 Yards and No. 17 which is listed at 137 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Max Homa (Total: +8.61, Per Round: +0.36)
    • Chris Kirk (Total: +8.55, Per Round: +0.36)
    • Matt Fitzpatrick (Total: +8.31, Per Round: +0.35)
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +8.06, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Austin Eckroat (Total: +7.78, Per Round: +0.32)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the ten Par 4’s at TPC Sawgrass range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Viktor Hovland (Total: +24.92, Per Round: +1.04)
    • Scottie Scheffler (Total: +20.02, Per Round: +0.83)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (Total: +16.43, Per Round: +0.68)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +15.71, Per Round: +0.65)
    • Patrick Cantlay (Total: +14.22, Per Round: +0.59)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 5’s at TPC Sawgrass range between 500-550 Yards. The two outliers are No. 9 which is listed at 602 Yards and No. 11 which is listed at 558 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • K.H. Lee (Total: +13.58, Per Round: +0.57)
    • Doug Ghim (Total: +12.22, Per Round: +0.51)
    • Kevin Yu (Total: +11.02, Per Round: +0.46)
    • Shane Lowry (Total: +10.99, Per Round: +0.46)
    • Min Woo Lee (Total: +10.73, Per Round: +0.45)

 

• Proximity Gained: 125-150/ 200+Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-150 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average. In addition to that range, players will also be forced to hit several long iron shots as well.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 125-150 yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Shane Lowry (Total: +357.31, Per Round: +14.89)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +271.00, Per Round: +11.29)
    • Chan Kim (Total: +239.67, Per Round: +9.99)
    • Ryan Moore (Total: +229.25, Per Round: +9.55)
    • Cameron Young (Total: +178.96, Per Round: +7.46)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 200+ yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tom Hoge (Total: +940.54, Per Round: +39.19)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +842.14, Per Round: +35.09)
    • Tony Finau (Total: +569.64, Per Round: +23.73)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +563.15, Per Round: +23.46)
    • Corey Conners (Total: +519.29, Per Round: +21.64)

 

• Bogey Avoidance
  • The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
  • Leaders in this category in this season (2024):
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Alex Noren
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Ben Silverman
    • Andrew Putnam

 

• Scrambling
  • The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass features some of the smallest greens that players will face all season. The Greens in Regulation Percentage at this course is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
  • Leaders in this category in this season (2024):
    • Peter Malnati (74.36%)
    • Ben Silverman (72.63%)
    • Alex Noren (72.60%)
    • Aaron Baddeley (72.48%)
    • Greyson Sigg (72.29%)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at TPC Sawgrass.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Viktor Hovland (3 Events – 70.50 Scoring Average)
    • Scottie Scheffler (3 Events – 70.60 Scoring Average)
    • Tommy Fleetwood (6 Events – 70.64 Scoring Average)
    • Justin Thomas (8 Events – 70.68 Scoring Average)
    • Hideki Matsuyama (8 Events – 70.71 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s PLAYERS Championship. Forty-seven of the top fifty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+500) clinched his inaugural victory of the 2024 season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Remarkably consistent, he has secured top-20 finishes in all six of his other starts this season. His triumph at THE PLAYERS Championship last season marked a notable turnaround from his T55 finish in 2022 and a missed cut in 2021.

Rory McIlroy (+1200) prepares for his fourteenth outing at THE PLAYERS Championship this week. The 2019 champion boasts three additional top-10 finishes over the years. However, recent appearances at TPC Sawgrass have been challenging, with missed cuts in both 2023 and 2021. Beginning the season with a disappointing T66 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, McIlroy has since secured modest finishes, including T24 at The Genesis Invitational, T21 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, and T21 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Viktor Hovland (+2200)has encountered a challenging start to the 2024 season. Following a T22 finish at The Sentry, he struggled at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, securing only a T58 placement. Despite an improved performance at Riviera Country Club, finishing T19, his recent outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ended with a T36 finish. As he approaches his fifth appearance at TPC Sawgrass, Hovland seeks to build upon past successes. Although he missed the cut in 2021, he showcased strong performances at the course in the previous two years, finishing T9 in 2022 and T3 in 2023.

Xander Schauffele (+2200) gears up for his seventh appearance at THE PLAYERS Championship. His debut in 2018 saw a promising start with a T2 finish, but subsequent years brought challenges, including three missed cuts. However, he showed improvement last year with a T19 finish. Despite not securing a win yet in the 2024 season, Schauffele has delivered strong performances, boasting four top-10 finishes in six starts. His recent outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational resulted in a T25 finish.

Justin Thomas (+2200) secured victory at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2021. Despite this triumph, he has only managed two other top-10 finishes in his eight appearances at TPC Sawgrass. After a lackluster 2023 season, Thomas has staged a comeback. With four finishes inside the top 12 in his six starts this season, he has shown a resurgence in form.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Scottie Scheffler (’23), Justin Thomas (’21), Rory McIlroy (’19), Webb Simpson (’18). Si Woo Kim (’17), Jason Day (’16), Matt Kuchar (’12), Adam Scott (’04)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Nick Dunlap. Harry Hall, Chan Kim, Ben Kohles, Vincent Norrman, Jimmy Stanger, Sam Stevens, Ben Silverman, Carl Yuan, Alexander Bjork, Austin Eckroat, Ryo Hisatsune, Nicolai Hojgaard, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Matti Schmid, David Skinns, Ben Taylor, Sami Valimaki, Carson Young, Kevin Yu

• Players with Florida ties in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Jimmy Stanger – Tampa, Florida
    • Matt Kuchar – Winter Park, Florida
    • Billy Horschel – Grant, Florida
    • Tyson Alexander – Gainesville, Florida
    • Sam Ryder – Winter Park, Florida
    • Jimmy Stanger – Tampa. Florida

• • College:
    • Eric Cole – Nova Southeastern University
    • Vincent Norrman – Florida State University
    • Ben Silverman – Florida Atlantic University
    • Camilo Villegas – Florida
    • Billy Horschel – Florida
    • Tyson Alexander – Florida
    • Sam Ryder – Stetson
    • Matt Wallace – Jacksonville State

• Injury Report:

PGA Tour Injury Report | #THEPLAYERS Championship 2024

Sponsored By @NUCLRGOLF

Full Details -> https://t.co/j0Zx5QuSo1@THEPLAYERS

1) Hideki Matsuyama Q (Back)
2) Will Zalatoris P (Back)
3) Maverick McNealy P (Shoulder)
4) Gary Woodland P (Brain Surgery)
5) Jason Day P… pic.twitter.com/2V8T8enu10

— Golf Injury Report (@InjuryReportPGA) March 11, 2024

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 272.5/ -15.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

In the past five editions of THE PLAYERS Championship, the winning score has dipped below 272.5 (-15.5) three times. However, before these recent occurrences, achieving a score below 272.5 had only happened four times in the previous 20 events dating back to 2000.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +375/ No -450)

Unlike other tournaments that feature a sudden-death playoff format, THE PLAYERS has a three-hole aggregate format that started in 2014. This tournament has only gone to a playoff once since this format change and that was back in 2015 when Rickie Fowler won.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Balls That Land In The Water At The 17th:

• Balls In Water On 17th Hole – 53.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

Last year, the par-3 17th played as the sixth hardest hole of the week with a scoring average of 3.227. Here’s a breakdown of the number of balls that landed in the water at the past editions of THE PLAYERS Championship.

Year	Balls That Landed in the Water at the 17th
2023	58
2022	64
2021	50
2020	N/A
2019	45
2018	53
2017	69
2016	36
2015	45
2014	28
2013	44
2012	39
2011	40
2010	29
2009	32
2008	64
2007	93
2006	67
2005	68
2004	30
2003	29

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Facts and Figures:

Credit to Ron Klos (@PGASplits101).

 

Horses for Courses

			THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship
			TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2019	2018
Viktor Hovland	3	70.50	T3	T9	MC	–	–
Tommy Fleetwood	6	70.64	T27	T22	MC	T5	T7
Justin Thomas	8	70.68	T60	T33	WON	T35	T11
Tom Hoge	5	70.79	T3	T33	T22	T30	T72
Max Homa	3	70.80	T6	T13	MC	–	–
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2	70.88	T13	–	T41	–	–
Jason Day	12	70.90	T19	MC	T35	T8	T5
Sungjae Im	4	71.07	T6	T55	T17	MC	–

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship	THE PLAYERS Championship
			TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2019	2018
Matthew NeSmith	3	76.83	MC	MC	MC	–	–
Sahith Theegala	2	75.17	74	MC	–	–	–
Michael Kim	3	75.13	–	–	–	MC	MC
Lee Hodges	2	75.00	MC	70	–	–	–
Joseph Bramlett	2	74.50	MC	MC	–	–	–
Robby Shelton IV	2	74.00	MC	–	MC	–	–
J.J. Spaun	4	74.00	MC	MC	–	WD	MC
Andrew Putnam	4	74.00	MC	MC	MC	MC	–
Adam Schenk	3	74.00	MC	MC	MC	–	–
Harris English	9	73.64	MC	–	–	MC	MC
Beau Hossler	5	73.50	MC	MC	MC	MC	T46
Peter Malnati	5	73.50	MC	T46	MC	–	–
Patrick Rodgers	7	73.47	MC	MC	T65	MDF	MC
Scott Stallings	9	73.35	T69	T42	MC	MC	MC
Troy Merritt	9	73.19	MC	T46	MC	MC	–
Chez Reavie	9	73.13	MC	MC	MC	MC	T30
Mackenzie Hughes	5	72.64	MC	MC	MC	–	T57
Luke List	5	72.42	MC	–	MC	T56	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • Price: 11-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler	5th	1st	4th	4th	48th

 

• 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • Price: 33-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Cameron Smith	68th	35th	5th	19th	1st

 

• 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • Price: 20-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Justin Thomas	10th	1st	5th	12th	42nd

 

• 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A

 

• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • Price: 14-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy	2nd	1st	6th	25th	45th

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler
  • T4 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • T12 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • WON – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T11 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)

 

• 2022: Cameron Smith
  • T33 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T4 – PIF Saudi International (ASA)
  • MC – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • WON – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)

 

• 2021: Justin Thomas
  • T15 – WGC-Workday Championship (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T13 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • MC – Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (DPWT)
  • 3 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)

 

• 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic

 

• 2019: Rory McIlroy
  • T6 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • 2 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • T4 – Genesis Open (PGA)
  • T5 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T4 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Scottie Scheffler

	2022	2021	2020
Scottie Scheffler	T55	MC	N/A

 

2022: Cameron Smith

	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Cameron Smith	T17	N/A	T56	MC	MC

 

2021: Justin Thomas

	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Justin Thomas	N/A	T35	T11	T75	T3	T24

 

2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic

 

2019: Rory McIlroy

	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2010	2009
Rory McIlroy	MC	T35	T12	T8	T6	T8	MC	MC	MC

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Xander Schauffele (+2200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Xander has kicked off the season impressively, securing four top-10 finishes in his first six events, although he hasn’t claimed a victory yet.

His track record at TPC Sawgrass presents an intriguing narrative. Following a strong tournament debut with a T2 finish, he faced three consecutive missed cuts at this event. However, last year, he rebounded with a T19 finish.

Xander’s recent performance has been stellar, and he boasts strong rankings across various categories this week. Notably, he has shown a proficiency for Pete Dye-designed courses, with two of his last three PGA Tour wins occurring at such venues: the Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands) and the Zurich Classic (TPC Louisiana).

A fascinating trend emerges with Xander as well. In events where he loses strokes on approach, he tends to excel in the subsequent event. It’s worth noting that he struggled in this aspect last week…

• 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions (WD) -> The American Express (T3)
• 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship (T57) -> BMW Championship (T3)
• 2022 The Masters (MC) -> Zurich Classic (WON)
• 2022 THE PLAYERS Championship (MC) -> Valspar Championship (T12)

 

• Justin Thomas (+2200) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Following a lackluster 2023 season, Justin Thomas has rediscovered his form. In his five PGA Tour starts this season, he has secured four top-15 finishes. His most recent outing, a T12 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, saw him gain strokes in every category. Notably, it felt like the first event of the season where he had better control over his driver, a crucial aspect for this week’s challenge.

Thomas, the 2021 PLAYERS Championship winner, boasts a flawless record at TPC Sawgrass, having never missed a cut in his eight prior visits. Additionally, he has demonstrated strong performances at comparable courses recently, finishing T3 at The American Express, T12 at the Wyndham Championship, and T10 at the Valspar Championship.

With his consistent ball-striking ability, Thomas appears poised to clinch his first victory since the 2022 PGA Championship. Moreover, his past winning patterns suggest a potential breakthrough: in the events preceding his last five victories, Thomas has consistently finished inside the top 20.

 

• Will Zalatoris (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

After facing challenges in his first event back from back surgery, Zalatoris has been steadily improving. His upward trajectory began with a T34 finish at The American Express, followed by a notable T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open and an impressive T2 at The Genesis Invitational. Last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational saw Zalatoris secure a solid T4 finish.

Zalatoris will embark on his fourth journey at TPC Sawgrass. In his previous three visits, he achieved finishes of 21st (2021), T26 (2022), and 73rd (2023).

Demonstrating superb ball-striking prowess in his recent events, Zalatoris has exhibited remarkable improvement. While struggling with accuracy off the tee earlier in the season, he appears to have rectified this issue. Additionally, his putting, previously a concern, has shown significant progress, with Zalatoris gaining strokes in putting in each of his last four events.

 

• Russell Henley (+5000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Henley’s season has seen its share of ups and downs. Beginning with a T52 finish at The Sentry, he then showcased his potential with a strong T4 showing at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, inconsistency returned with a T58 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Over his last three events, he found some stability, securing finishes of T24 at The Genesis Invitational, T41 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, and another impressive T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Moreover, Henley has demonstrated prowess at THE PLAYERS Championship in recent years, finishing T13 in 2022 and T19 in 2023. He has also excelled at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), a comparable course, finishing T2 in 2023 and T5 in 2022.

Henley’s play off the tee has shown improved consistency this season, with his accuracy compensating for his moderate distance, which is particularly crucial this week. Additionally, his approach play has been solid of late, gaining strokes in four of his last five events. Furthermore, Henley enters this week with a hot putter, ranking 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches in Strokes Gained: Putting. Given his recent form, there’s potential for Henley to follow in Cam Smith’s footsteps at this event, leveraging his prowess on the greens to propel him to victory.

 

• Tom Hoge (+7000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

Hoge’s recent performances on the PGA Tour have been impressive, with top-20 finishes in five of his last seven starts. A standout moment came at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he secured a T6 finish. Last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational saw him continue this solid form, finishing T12 while leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

In his five previous appearances at TPC Sawgrass, Hoge has never missed the cut. He started with a T72 finish in his tournament debut and has steadily improved each year since. Notably, last year marked his best performance at this tournament, finishing T3.

Renowned for his exceptional iron play, Hoge recently showcased his best approach performance of the season. His tee shots have also shown improvement in his last five events. While past struggles with control have been evident, his accuracy off the tee has notably improved in his last two starts. Additionally, despite previous challenges with putting, Hoge has displayed strong putting performances this season, gaining strokes in six of his last seven events. Notably, in his last two events featuring Bermudagrass with a Poa overseed, Hoge gained strokes. Furthermore, addressing past concerns about his short game, he gained strokes around the green in his last start and has done so in both of his last two starts at TPC Sawgrass.

 

• Sungjae Im (+8000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

Sungaje made a promising start to the 2024 season, displaying potential with a T5 finish at The Sentry and a T25 finish at The American Express. However, he faced challenges in his next five starts, missing the cut twice. Nevertheless, he showed significant improvement at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, securing a T18 finish while gaining strokes in every category.

Since his debut at the tournament where he missed the cut, Im has notably elevated his performance in his last three visits to TPC Sawgrass. Last year’s event saw him produce his best result, finishing T6.

Im’s recent display of returning form is highly encouraging. He possesses a game that aligns well with this course when he’s playing at his best, particularly excelling with his irons, ranking among the best approach players on Tour. Additionally, his short game has shown improvement in recent starts. With his potential for explosive performances, coupled with 80-1 odds, Im presents an intriguing option to consider this week.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.35 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Max Homa (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Homa began the season on a strong note, securing a T14 finish at The Sentry and a T13 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. However, he encountered a rough patch, finishing T66 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. Nevertheless, he bounced back in his last two events, claiming a T16 finish at The Genesis Invitational and a T8 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This marks his fourth appearance at TPC Sawgrass. His tournament debut in 2020 was cut short due to COVID-19. In 2021, he struggled and missed the cut, but he has shown significant improvement in his last two outings, finishing T13 in 2022 and T6 in 2023. Additionally, Homa has performed well at comparable courses, securing a T6 finish at the Valspar Championship (2021) and a T21 finish at The American Express (2021).

While Homa’s iron play has remained consistent this season, there has been a slight decline in his approach play compared to last year. Nonetheless, he has managed to gain strokes in each event this season. With the distance to compete and the accuracy to position himself effectively, Homa is well-equipped for this week’s challenge. Furthermore, his impressive putting performances in the past two events underscore his potential success on the greens, a crucial factor for this week’s competition.

 

• Hideki Matsuyama (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Matsuyama faced challenges at the start of the season, securing a 58th place finish at The Sentry and a T30 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. However, he showed signs of improvement at the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing T13. His resurgence continued with a T22 finish at the WM Phoenix Open, followed by a remarkable victory at The Genesis Invitational. Last week, he maintained his solid form with a T12 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This marks Hideki’s ninth appearance at TPC Sawgrass. While he has yet to clinch victory at this event, he has finished inside the top 25 in six of his eight prior visits.

In the last three events, Hideki’s game has noticeably sharpened, culminating in his triumph at Riviera. With his impressive course history and recent resurgence, he appears well-positioned to contend this week.

 

• Corey Conners (+200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.50 to win 1.00 Units

Corey Conners has maintained a flawless record this season, having yet to miss the cut in his seven starts. In the initial four events, Conners secured finishes inside the top 40 three times. Subsequently, his approach play has been exceptional, leading to a T24 finish at The Genesis Invitational, a T41 finish at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, and a T18 finish in his latest appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Conners will embark on his fifth outing at TPC Sawgrass. Notable finishes at this event include a T7 placement in 2021. Although he missed the cut last year, he enters this year’s tournament in significantly better form.

As previously noted, Conners’ iron play has always been solid, but in recent events, it has been particularly outstanding. While lacking in distance off the tee, his accuracy remains impeccable, which holds greater importance this week. Though encountering challenges on the greens this season, it’s worth noting that he gained strokes at the WM Phoenix Open, which features a similar green complex to this week.

 

• Brian Harman (+240) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.50 to win 1.20 Units

Harman kicked off the season strongly in Hawaii, securing a T5 finish at The Sentry and a T18 finish at the Sony Open. However, he encountered a rough patch thereafter, failing to break into the top 40 in his next three events. Nonetheless, the former Major winner rediscovered his form in his latest outing, securing a T12 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational while ranking 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach.

With eleven appearances at TPC Sawgrass under his belt, Harman boasts considerable experience at this venue, having finished inside the top 10 three times.

Harman’s accuracy off the tee could prove advantageous this week, and he is coming off his strongest iron performance of the season. If he can maintain this level of play, he stands a good chance of performing well. Additionally, his putting has been solid this season, gaining strokes in three of his first five starts. Notably, he gained strokes on the green at the WM Phoenix Open, which features a similar green complex to this week.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Alex Noren (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

the season, securing a T9 finish while ranking 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach.

This will be his seventh appearance at TPC Sawgrass, where his track record is mixed. While he has missed the cut three times, he has also finished inside the top 30 on three occasions. Notably, his best performance occurred in his tournament debut, where he finished T10.

Noren emerges as a strong contender in my model this week. His approach play has shown increased consistency this year, and while lacking in distance off the tee, his accuracy remains impressive, particularly crucial for this week’s challenge. Additionally, Noren’s proficiency with long irons can compensate for his lack of distance, as evidenced by his leading performance from 200+ yards at the Cognizant Classic. Regarding putting, he has been decent, gaining strokes in each of his last three events. Moreover, his performance on bermudagrass greens has been notably superior.

 

• Doug Ghim (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Doug Ghim endured a rough start to the season, failing to make the cut in his first two events. However, he has since turned his performance around, delivering excellent results with finishes inside the top 20 in each of his last four starts.

This marks his fourth appearance at THE PLAYERS Championship. In his previous visits to TPC Sawgrass, he secured a T29 finish in 2021, an impressive T6 finish in 2022, and missed the cut last year. It’s worth noting that heading into last year’s event, he had missed the cut in six of his last seven events. Additionally, Ghim showcased his capabilities at PGA National with a solid T16 finish, a course that shares similarities with the venue for this week’s event.

Ghim’s recent form has been exceptional as he heads into this event. Furthermore, his previous success at this course, notably with a T6 finish in 2022, suggests that the layout aligns well with his playing style and strengths.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Total Risk onTHE PLAYERS Championship: 5.35 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.