2024 Valspar Championship – Preview & Picks

Scottie Scheffler clinches victory at THE PLAYERS Championship by a single stroke, marking the first time in the tournament’s history that a player has triumphantly defended their title. Scheffler, fresh off his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational the previous week, now joins the ranks of golfing greats. His feat echoes Tiger Woods’ remarkable 2007 achievement when Woods secured victory at the PGA Championship and successfully defended his title at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational the following week.

Xander Schauffele, who entered the final round with a promising 54-hole lead at 22-1 odds, regrettably fell short of securing the victory. Nonetheless, the bright side for us lies in the success of our placement bets, with five out of six hitting the mark. Among these, Hideki Matsuyama secured a top-20 finish (+138), along with Corey Conners (+200), Brian Harman (+240), Alex Noren (+115), and Doug Ghim (+125), each securing their respective top-40 positions.

We’ve come agonizingly close to securing our first outright victory of the 2024 season on numerous occasions. Benny An narrowly missed out in a playoff at the Sony Open, Christiaan Bezuidenhout clinched second place at The American Express, Sam Burns tied for third at the WM Phoenix Open, Stephan Jaeger secured a T3 finish at the Mexico Open, Hayden Springer matched that at the Puerto Rico Open, and just last week, Xander finished T2 at THE PLAYERS.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Fresh from his impressive T2 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, Xander Schauffele is set to make his comeback at the Valspar Championship. With five top-10 finishes out of seven events this season, Schauffele brings formidable form to the tournament. His last appearance at Innisbrook in 2022 resulted in a commendable T12 finish.

Tony Finau makes his return to Innisbrook after a hiatus since 2018. Despite missing the cut in three out of four previous appearances, Finau notably secured a fifth-place finish in 2017.

Sam Burns, no stranger to success at Innisbrook, aims for another triumph. With consecutive victories at the Valspar in 2021 and 2022, along with a sixth-place finish last year, Burns boasts an impressive record. Having secured four top-12 finishes in five starts at Innisbrook, he maintains a flawless streak of not missing a cut.

Taylor Moore heads back to Tampa seeking to defend his title at the Valspar Championship. Moore has shown consistency by making the cut in all seven of his PGA TOUR starts this season, setting the stage for an exciting tournament.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 21st, 2024 – March 24th 2024
• Location: Palm Harbor, Florida, United States
• Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Course Type: Carolina-type
• Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,340 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis .115”
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .450” (all grass areas are on Bermuda base)
• Rough: Ryegrass overseed 3.75” (all grass areas are on Bermuda base)
• Bunkers: 74
• Water Hazard(s): 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,822 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000/$1,512,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 155 Players
• Cut: Top 65 & Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 71.94 (+0.94), Rank 7 of 49
  • 2022: 70.23 (-0.77), Rank 29 of 50
  • 2021: 70.96 (-0.04), Rank 20 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: +1
  • 2022: -3
  • 2021: -1

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

Course/ Tournament History:

In 2020, amid the widespread disruptions caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this event, along with several others, was canceled. However, it made a triumphant return in 2021, with Sam Burns securing his second consecutive victory on the challenging Copperhead course at Innisbrook.

Innisbrook Resort boasts four distinguished courses: Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship unfolds on the Copperhead Course, which stands as the resort’s second-built course. Renowned for its length and formidable challenges, Copperhead is widely regarded as the most demanding course at the resort.

The course underwent a significant renovation in 2015, overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company, a key player in its original design. This renovation saw the greens reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass, with several restored to their original dimensions to accommodate varied pin placements. Furthermore, Celebration Bermuda grass replaced the fairways, ensuring a more consistent hitting surface. Many bunkers were also reshaped, while tee boxes underwent both reshaping and expansion.

Debuting on the Tour in 2000, this event initially bore the title of the Tampa Bay Classic. It started as an alternate event, taking place during the autumn and late summer seasons. From 2003 to 2006, the tournament transitioned to an autumn schedule before relocating to March in 2007. Alongside this move, a new sponsor stepped in, leading to the event being branded as the Chrysler Championship. Between 2007 and 2008, it bore the name of the PODS Championship. Despite sponsorship challenges, the tournament found stability in 2014 when the Valspar Corporation assumed sponsorship, maintaining its position as the presenting sponsor ever since.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 2, K.J. Choi (2002, 2006), Retief Goosen (2003, 2009), Paul Casey (2018, 2019), Sam Burns (2021, 2022)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 266, Vijay Singh (2004)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Padraig Harrington (Round 1, 2012)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally crafted by Larry Packard in 1971, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort features a Par 71 layout, comprising five Par 3s, nine Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort poses a formidable challenge, ranking among the toughest courses on the Tour outside of the Majors. In 2023, only the four Par 5s had a scoring average under par.

While not excessively long at 7,340 yards, Innisbrook Resort sits near the Tour average, slightly longer in comparison. The fairways, with an average width of 27.5 yards, rank as the 6th narrowest on the Tour, making Strokes Gained Off the Tee a crucial category. Green sizes average around 5,822 square feet, relatively smaller compared to other Tour courses.

The course’s primary defense lies in its water hazards, which come into play on half of the holes. Despite its modest length, these hazards often necessitate cautious layups on specific holes. Additionally, Innisbrook Resort is highly susceptible to winds, posing a significant challenge for approach shots.

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth-lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Accuracy off the tee is especially crucial this week given the rough has grown out from 3.00″ to 3.75″.

The five Par 3’s range between 195 yards and 235 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (three) of the Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 13 ‘Forced Carry’, 200 yards, Par 3: “The tightly mown areas around the green make the Par 3 ‘Forced Carry, a hole to be reckoned with.”

No. 17 ‘The Rattler’, 215 yards, Par 3: “Beware of ‘The Rattler’ – this long Par 3 has plenty of bite for the player that misses the green.”

There are nine Par 4’s at Innisbrook Resort with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. No. 12 is the shortest listed at 380 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 475 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 16 (+0.373).

No. 16 ‘Moccasin’, 475 yards, Par 4: “One of the toughest scoring holes on the PGA TOUR, the Par 4 ‘Moccasin’ will test the player’s ability to hit a controlled fade into a very tight fairway.”

No. 18 ‘The Copperhead’, 445 yards, Par 4: “With an all uphill approach, ‘The Copperhead’ is the ultimate finishing hole for a championship course.”

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 1, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 1 with a scoring average of 4.519.

No. 1 ‘Innisbrook’s View’, 560 yards, Par 5: “‘Innisbrook’s View’ is Par 5, dogleg right, requiring three calculated shots to reach the green.”

No. 14 ‘Packard’s Double Dogleg’, 590 yards, Par 5: “Follow the contours of ‘Packard’s Double Dogleg’ if you want any chance of scoring well on the last of Copperhead’s Par 5s.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16-18 ‘Snake Pit’

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

Statistics	PGA Tour Average	Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)	283.75	272.06
Driving Accuracy	62%	61%
GIR Percentage	66%	61%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)	29.17	28.58
Scrambling Percentage	58%	59%
Avg 3 Putts / Round	0.55	0.52

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Kieth Mitchell (Total: +18.41, Per Round: +0.77)
    • Cameron Champ (Total: +17.46, Per Round: +0.73)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +17.36, Per Round: +0.72)
    • Min Woo Lee (Total: +14.43, Per Round: +0.60)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +14.17, Per Round: +0.59)

 

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Four of the past four winners ranked 7th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tony Finau (Total: +21.53, Per Round: +0.90)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +19.49, Per Round: +0.81)
    • Nick Taylor (Total: +17.56, Per Round: +0.73)
    • Cameron Young (Total: +14.54, Per Round: +0.61)
    • Justin Thomas (Total: +14.50, Per Round: +0.60)

 

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort are TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis .115”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +26.79, Per Round: +1.12)
    • Ben Griffin (Total: +20.43, Per Round: +0.85)
    • Aaron Wise (Total: +19.55, Per Round: +0.81)
    • Billy Horschel (Total: +18.83, Per Round: +0.78)
    • Chesson Hadley (Total: +17.98, Per Round: +0.75)

 

• Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x3)
  • Three of the five Par 3’s on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort range between 200-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Greyson Sigg (Total: +8.00, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Luke Donald (Total: +6.53, Per Round: +0.27)
    • Carson Young (Total: +5.10, Per Round: +0.21)
    • Vince Whaley (Total: +5.05, Per Round: +0.21)
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +5.04, Per Round: +0.21)

 

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the nine Par 4’s on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Total: +13.89, Per Round: +0.58)
    • Nicolas Echavarria (Total: +13.49, Per Round: +0.56)
    • Ben Silverman (Total: +12.52, Per Round: +0.52)
    • Cameron Young (Total: +12.36, Per Round: +0.52)
    • Taylor Montgomery (Total: +11.83, Per Round: +0.49)

 

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
  • Three of the four Par 5’s on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Sam Burns (Total: +10.73, Per Round: +0.45)
    • Thomas Detry (Total: +8.18, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Jordan Spieth (Total: +8.09, Per Round: +0.34)
    • Michael Kim (Total: +7.89, Per Round: +0.33)
    • Thorbjorn Olesen (Total: +7.80, Per Round: +0.32)

 

• Proximity Gained: 175-200/ 200+Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 175-200 yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole (Total: +339.3, Per Round: +14.14)
    • Cameron Young (Total: +324.45, Per Round: +13.52)
    • Jhonattan Vegas (Total: +323.58, Per Round: +13.48)
    • Greyson Sigg (Total: +295.97, Per Round: +12.33)
    • David Lipsky (Total: +262.08, Per Round: +10.92)

• • Leaders in Proximity Gained from 200+ yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Keith Mitchell (Total: +889.61, Per Round: +37.07)
    • Xander Schauffele (Total: +709.24, Per Round: +29.55)
    • Thorbjorn Olesen (Total: +636.02, Per Round: +26.50)
    • Tony Finau (Total: +623.78, Per Round: +25.99)
    • Sami Valimaki (Total: +515.60, Per Round: +21.48)

 

• Scrambling
  • The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort features some of the smallest greens that players will face all season. The Greens in Regulation Percentage at this course is lower than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
  • Leaders in this category in this season (2024):
    • Maverick McNealy (72.57%)
    • Erik Barnes (72.46%)
    • Zach Johnson (70.83%)
    • Taylor Montgomery (70.12%)
    • Ben Griffin (69.08%)

 

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at Innisbrook Resort.

• •  Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Matthew NeSmith (2 Events – 68.38 Scoring Average)
    • Davis Riley (2 Events – 68.75 Scoring Average)
    • Sam Burns (5 Events – 68.85 Scoring Average)
    • Sungjae Im (2 Events – 69.75 Scoring Average)
    • Justin Thomas (6 Events – 69.77 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 155 players competing in this year’s Valspar Championship. Ten of the top thirty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Xander Schauffele (+700) secured a runner-up position last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, despite holding the lead after 54 holes. Impressively, out of his seven tournaments this year, he has clinched five top-10 finishes. Schauffele made his tournament debut at the Valspar in 2022, concluding with a commendable T12 finish.

Sam Burns (+1200) faced a challenging stretch in his recent outings, securing a T45 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T30 position in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Before this, he demonstrated remarkable consistency by finishing inside the top 10 in each of his preceding four events. Burns claimed victory at this event both in 2021 and 2022. Notably, at Innisbrook last year, he secured a commendable 6th-place finish.

Justin Thomas (+1400) faced disappointment with his second missed cut at TPC Sawgrass last week. However, in his six starts this year, he has displayed consistency by securing top-15 finishes four times. Thomas is set to make his debut appearance at Innsibrook in this event, having previously achieved an impressive five top-20 finishes.

Jordan Spieth (+1600) encountered difficulty at THE PLAYERS Championship last week, missing the cut due to challenges with his irons. Despite recent struggles, he has shown glimpses of his talent with two top-ten finishes this season out of six starts. Spieth boasts a significant history at the Valspar Championship, having claimed victory back in 2015. Additionally, in his six appearances at the event, he has secured a top-20 finish on four occasions.

Brian Harman (+2200) has shown positive momentum in recent events, securing a T12 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a notable T2 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Remarkably, he maintains a flawless record of not missing a cut in his eight starts on Tour this year. However, Harman has encountered challenges at Innisbrook in the past, missing the cut in six out of his nine prior starts here. Despite this, his most impressive performance at this event came in 2022, where he achieved a commendable T5 finish.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Taylor Moore (’23), Sam Burns (’22. ’21), Adam Hadwin (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15), Kevin Streelman (’13), Luke Donald (’12), Gary Woodland (’11)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Aaron Rai, Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Blaine Hale, Jr., Cameron Young, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, Davis Thompson, Evan Harmeling, Fred Biondi, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Dougherty, Mac Meissner, Max Greyserman, Min Woo Lee, Norman Xiong, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Raul Pereda, Ricky Castillo, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Scott Gutschewski, Taylor Montgomery, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Wilson Furr

• Players with Florida ties in the Field:
  • Birthplace:
    • Jimmy Stanger – Tampa, Florida
    • Matt Kuchar – Winter Park, Florida
    • Billy Horschel – Grant, Florida
    • Tyson Alexander – Gainesville, Florida
    • Sam Ryder – Winter Park, Florida
    • Daniel Berger – Plantation, Florida
    • Bud Cauley – Daytona Beach, Florida

• • College:
    • Eric Cole – Nova Southeastern University
    • Ben Silverman – Florida Atlantic University
    • Camilo Villegas – Florida
    • Billy Horschel – Florida
    • Tyson Alexander – Florida
    • Sam Ryder – Stetson
    • Matt Wallace – Jacksonville State
    • Fred Bondi – Florida
    • Daniel Berger – Florida State
    • Ricky Castillo – Florida
    • Nick Gabrelcik – North Florida
    • Greg Koch – Florida Southern
    • Raul Pereda – Jacksonville
    • Alejandro Tosti – Florida

• Injury Report:

• PGA Tour Injury Report | 2024 Valspar Championship

  Sponsored By @NUCLRGOLF

  Full Details -> https://t.co/j0Zx5QuSo1@ValsparChamp #ValsparChampionship

  1) Jhonattan Vegas P (Elbow/Shoulder/illness)
  2) Daniel Berger P (Back)
  3) Aaron Wise Q (Mental Health)
  4) Garrick Higgo D… pic.twitter.com/iKQRD7z7Ya

  — Golf Injury Report (@InjuryReportPGA) March 18, 2024

 

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • WD: Tom Kim -> IN: Trace Crowe (Alternate)
  • WD: Patrick Cantlay -> IN: Blaine Hale Jr. (Alternate)
  • IN: Bronson Burgoon (Sponsors Exemption)
  • IN: Raul Pereda (Sponsors Exemption)

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score:

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 269.5/ -14.5 (Over -110/ Under -110)

In the past ten editions of the Valspar Championship, the winning score has dipped below 272.5 (-14.5) twice. However, both of those occurrences happened recently with Sam Burns having a winning score of -17 in both 2022 and 2021.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Playoff Props:

• Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350/ No -420)

Since 2012, this tournament has seen just four playoffs, highlighting its rarity. The most recent playoff occurred in 2022, with Sam Burns emerging victorious over Davis Riley. The Valspar Championship has a history of tight competition, as evidenced by its narrow margins of victory. In fact, only two of the last fifteen events have seen a margin of victory greater than one stroke.

 

To place a bet at Sportsbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses

			Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship
			Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2019	2018
Matthew NeSmith	2	68.38	–	T3	T21	–	–
Davis Riley	2	68.75	T19	2	–	–	–
Sam Burns	5	68.85	6	WON	WON	T30	T12
Justin Thomas	6	69.77	T10	T3	T13	–	–
Sungjae Im	2	69.75	–	–	T29	T4	–

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship
			Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)	Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club (Copperhead Course)
	Events Played	Scoring Avg. (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2019	2018
Martin Trainer	4	74.75	MC	MC	MC	MC	–
Greg Koch	2	73.50	MC	MC	–	–	–
Andrew Putnam	3	73.33	–	MC	MC	–	MC
Marty Dou Zecheng	2	73.00	T69	–	–	–	MC
Peter Malnati	7	72.69	MC	MC	MC	T60	MC
Michael Kim	6	72.69	T45	–	MC	MC	MC
Patrick Rodgers	6	72.56	T36	–	MC	MC	T59
Robert Shelton IV	2	72.50	MC	–	MC	–	–
Akshay Bhatia	2	72.50	MC	–	–	MC	–
Chesson Hadley	8	72.42	MC	MC	MC	T65	MC
Beau Hossler	5	72.08	MC	–	T39	MC	MC
Scott Piercy	7	71.75	–	MC	MC	–	–

 

 

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • Price: 70-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Taylor Moore	2nd	2nd	5th	40th	9th

 

• 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • Price: 25-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Sam Burns	56th	4th	3rd	13th	8th

 

• 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • Price: 80-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Sam Burns	16th	5th	14th	23rd	3rd

 

• 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A

 

• 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • Price: 25-1

	SG: Off the Tee	SG: Tee to Green	SG: Approach	SG: Around the Green	SG: Putting
Paul Casey	6th	6th	7th	9th	43rd

 

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Taylor Moore
  • T35 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T39 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T14 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T15 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)

• 2022: Sam Burns
  • T26 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T9 – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)

• 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic

• 2021: Sam Burns
  • T39 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
  • MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Arnold Palmer Invitational (PGA)
  • 3 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)

• 2019: Paul Casey
  • MC – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
  • T3 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • T25 – Genesis Open (PGA)
  • 2 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • T2 – SMBC Singapore Open (JPN)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Taylor Moore

	2022
Taylor Moore	MC

 

2022: Sam Burns

	2021	2019	2018
Sam Burns	WON	T30	T12

 

2021: Sam Burns

	2019	2018
Sam Burns	T30	T12

 

2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic

 

2019: Paul Casey

	2018	2014	2012	2011	2008
Paul Casey	WON	MC	MC	T37	T42

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Cameron Young (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

Cam Young is poised to make his debut at the Valspar Championship this week. Although he faced challenges in his recent outings, securing a T54 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T36 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Young had previously showcased promising form with four top-20 finishes in five starts.

Despite his close calls, Young is yet to secure a breakthrough on the PGA Tour. However, his approach play has shown significant improvement in his recent performances, despite the disappointing results. While he has struggled with consistency off the tee in the past, his considerable power enables him to adjust his club selection on various holes, potentially enhancing his accuracy and aiding in avoiding the punishing rough.

 

• Nick Taylor (+3500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Nick Taylor has been showcasing exceptional golfing prowess this year, securing a notable victory at the WM Phoenix Open on the PGA Tour. His approach play has been particularly impressive, with his performance on the greens matching his precision. While he has faced challenges with distance off the tee, his accuracy could prove advantageous in the upcoming tournament.

Despite losing strokes putting, Taylor managed a commendable T10 finish at the Valspar Championship last season. With improvements in his iron play and putting leading up to this year’s event, he is poised to surpass that performance. His victory at TPC Scottsdale earlier this season, featuring a similar green complex to Innisbrook, further underscores his potential for success at this venue.

 

• Doug Ghim (+5000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Doug Ghim has been consistently impressive this season, securing a spot within the top 20 in each of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. His overall performance indicates a game in excellent shape, suggesting he’s well-prepared for success at a course that suits his style.

Although Ghim’s past participation in this event resulted in a T27 finish in 2023 and a missed cut in 2021, his current form is significantly stronger, hinting at an improved outcome this year based on his previous performance.

In terms of key statistics for this week’s event, Ghim stands out in most categories, although there might be a slight concern regarding his putting performance. Nevertheless, he has demonstrated a positive trend in putting, gaining strokes in four out of his last five events, particularly excelling at events like THE PLAYERS Championship and the WM Phoenix Open, which share similar green complexes with Innisbrook.

 

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5500) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

Bezuidenhout emerges as a noteworthy contender in my analysis for this week. While he kicked off the season with a commendable runner-up finish at The American Express, narrowly missing out to Nick Dunlap, his journey since then has seen fluctuations. However, his approach play has consistently maintained a high standard. Moreover, his putting has been exceptional, showing improvements in each of his last four starts. Although his approach play has had its moments of inconsistency, he has managed to gain strokes in that aspect in his last two outings. Despite not being the longest hitter off the tee, precision holds more significance this week, minimizing any potential drawbacks.

In his tournament debut last year at the Valspar Championship, Bezuidenhout secured a T62 finish. Subsequently, he displayed a solid performance at Harbour Town, a course with similarities to the current venue, finishing T19. Despite his PGA Tour breakthrough remaining elusive thus far, his talent suggests he could make a breakthrough this week.

 

• Taylor Moore (+7000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

Last year, we profited from Taylor Moore’s victory at 70-1 odds in this event, and this week, he’s being offered at the same price…

A peculiar pattern has emerged at the Valspar Championship, with recent winners repeating their success, such as Sam Burns in 2022 and 2021, and Paul Casey in 2019 and 2018.

Assessing Moore’s recent form, it bears resemblance to his performance last year. While his putting has experienced a slight decline, he has managed to gain strokes on the green in his last two events. Additionally, his driving accuracy has been inconsistent this season, but he appeared to have rectified this issue last week at THE PLAYERS Championship.

 

• Sam Ryder (+11000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.08 to win 8.80 Units

Ryder comes into this week riding a wave of his best form this season, securing a T21 finish at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and a T16 placement at THE PLAYERS Championship. At last year’s Valspar Championship, he landed a respectable T19 spot.

Throughout this season, Ryder’s iron play has remained solid, although he has faced challenges in other areas of his game. Initially, he struggled with putting, losing strokes in his first four starts. However, he showed improvement in his last two events, gaining strokes on the green in each. Notably, his putting prowess was particularly notable last week at THE PLAYERS, a tournament with greens akin to those at Innisbrook. Moreover, his performance around the green has also seen enhancements in his recent outings. While he may not boast exceptional driving distance, his accuracy off the tee is a notable advantage, making it less of a concern for this week’s competition.

 

• Andrew Novak (+12000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.07 to win 8.40 Units

Novak’s year got off to a rocky start with three consecutive missed cuts. However, he quickly rebounded, stringing together three consecutive top-10 finishes. Unfortunately, his struggles returned last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, particularly with his approach play, leading to another missed cut.

This marks Novak’s third appearance at Innisbrook, having missed the cut in his debut in 2022 and securing a T27 finish in last year’s event.

If Novak can rediscover his form with his irons, he stands a good chance of contending this week. With odds of 120-1, I’m inclined to take a gamble on him finding his groove again.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.13 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Maverick McNealy (+200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

After contending with a shoulder injury for much of the 2023 season, the former No.1 World Amateur is showing signs of a comeback. He has secured top-20 finishes in three of his last four starts this season, notably achieving a T9 placement at THE PLAYERS Championship last week.

In his tournament debut at the Valspar Championship last year, he finished T36.

Despite recent improvements, he continues to face challenges with his iron play. However, it’s worth noting that in last year’s T36 finish at this event, he struggled with approach shots, yet managed to compensate with other aspects of his game. Nonetheless, there’s been a positive trend in his iron play lately, and if he replicates his performance at the WM Phoenix Open, where he showed promise, he stands a chance to contend.

 

• Lucas Glover (+225) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 2.25 Units

Glover has yet to break into the top 20 this season, despite clinching two victories last year. However, I believe this could change in the upcoming week. While he has encountered difficulties on the greens this season, there was a notable improvement in his performance at the TPC Scottsdale, which shares similarities with Innisbrook’s green complex.

His consistent iron play has been a cornerstone of his past successes. Provided he can putt adequately this week, he ought to be in contention.

Although he lacks the driving distance of some of his counterparts, his accuracy off the tee should serve him well in the upcoming event.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Victor Perez (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

The three-time DP World Tour champion has hit his stride in his rookie season on the PGA Tour. In his most recent outings, he secured a commendable T16 finish at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and an impressive T3 placement at the Puerto Rico Open.

Although he participated in this event last season, finishing T45, he enters this year’s competition in markedly improved form. His approach play has maintained consistency throughout the season, with his putting showing signs of improvement. Additionally, his performance off the tee has been commendable in his last two events. With his recent form, he seems well-positioned to surpass his T45 finish from last season at Innisbrook.

 

• Carson Young (+140) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 5.13 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.