2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview & Picks

The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge marks the tenth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season and the second event of the “Florida Swing.”

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Joe Highsmith wins the Cognizant Classic

Joe Highsmith captured his first PGA TOUR victory at last week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, becoming the first player to win after making the cut on the number (5-under) since Brandt Snedeker at the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open. Highsmith is the third first-time winner on TOUR this season, joining Brian Campbell (Mexico Open at VidantaWorld) and Thomas Detry (WM Phoenix Open).

Scottie Scheffler looks to defend his title at Bay Hill

World No. 1 and reigning FedExCup champion Scottie Scheffler is seeking his first official victory since the 2024 TOUR Championship. He returns this week to defend his title after his dominant five-stroke victory in 2024.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 6th – March 9th, 2025
• Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
• Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
• Course Type: Florida
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,466 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
• Fairways: Perennial ryegrass overseed .350”
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass overseed 3”
• Bunkers: 84 (4 acres)
• Water Hazard(s): 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$4,000,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field: 72 Players
• Cut: Top 50 and Ties- 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death (18, 18, 17 and then 18 repeated)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2024: 72.33 (+0.33), Rank 10 of 51
  • 2023: 72.66 (+0.66), Rank 10 of 49
  • 2022: 73.89 (+1.89), Rank 4 of 50
• Historic Cut Line:
• 2024: +3
• 2023: +3
• 2022: +3

Social Media:

• Course X: @APBayHill
• Tournament X: @APinv

Course Information:

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Dick Wilson (1961)
• Renovations: Arnold Palmer, ASGCA (2009)

Comparable Courses:

• PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) – Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches – RESULTS
• Quail Hollow Club – Wells Fargo Championship – RESULTS

Comparable Location (Orlando, Florida):

• PGA National – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
• TPC Sawgrass – Ponte Verda Beach, Florida – THE PLAYERS Championship
• Innisbrook Resort – Palm Harbor, Florida – Valspar Championship

Designer Link (Dick Wilson):

• TPC Blue Monster at Doral – Dick Wilson (1962) – WGC-Cadillac Championship (2007-2016)
• Cog Hill #4 – Dick Wilson (1964) – BMW Championship (2007, 2009-2011)

Designer Link (Arnold Palmer):

• TPC Twin Cities – Arnold Palmer (2000) – 3M Open

Comparable Yardage (7,466 Yards):

• El Cardonal at Diamante – 7,452 Yards – World Wide Technology Championship
• Vidanta Vallarta – 7,456 Yards – Mexico Open at Vidanta
• The Country Club of Jackson – 7,461 Yards – Sanderson Farms Championship
• TPC Craig Ranch – 7,468 Yards – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
• Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – 7,480 Yards – Barracuda Championship

Comparable Greens (TifEagle bermudagrass .110”):

• Kapalua (Plantation) – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – Sentry ToC
• PGA WEST (Nicklaus) – TifEagle bermudagrass .110” – The American Express
• PGA National – TifEagle bermudagrass .120” – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
• Port Royal Golf Course – TifEagle Bermudagrass .130″ – Butterfield Bermuda Championship
• Sea Island Golf Club – TifEagle bermudagrass – RSM Classic

Comparable Average Green Size (7,500 sq. ft.):

• Riviera Country Club – 7,500 sq. ft. – The Genesis Invitational
• TPC Summerlin – 7,400 sq. ft. – Shriners Children’s Open

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, March 6th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, March 7th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, March 8th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 8:00 AM – 12:30 PM
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
  • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, March 9th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 8:00 AM – 12:30 PM
  • Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
  • NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is held annually at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Originally established in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open, the tournament moved to Bay Hill in 1979 and was renamed in honor of golf legend Arnold Palmer, who owned the club and served as its iconic host until his passing in 2016. Known for its challenging course setup, firm greens, and demanding closing stretch, the event attracts the world’s top golfers each year. Winners not only receive a coveted red cardigan sweater — a tribute to Palmer’s signature style — but also a three-year PGA Tour exemption, compared to the standard two years for most tour events.

Bay Hill Club and Lodge, located in Orlando, Florida, was built in 1961, designed by architect Dick Wilson, and quickly gained a reputation for its challenging layout and scenic beauty. Arnold Palmer first visited Bay Hill in 1965, fell in love with the course, and officially purchased the property in 1974. Palmer made numerous design changes over the years, shaping Bay Hill into a world-class golf destination. The Championship Course, a par-72 stretching over 7,400 yards, is famous for its demanding fairways, thick rough, and the iconic 18th hole that tests players’ precision and nerve. Beyond the course, Bay Hill offers luxurious lodging, fine dining, and a rich atmosphere steeped in Palmer’s legacy.

Previous Tournament Venues:

Previous Tournament Names:

Tournament Records:

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 8, Tiger Woods (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013)

Course Records:

• 72-Hole Record (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):
  • 264, Payne Stewart (1987)

• 18-Hole Record (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):
  • 62, Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984), Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014)

• Largest Margin of Victory (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):
  • 11 Strokes – Tiger Woods (2003)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Originally designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, Bay Hill Club and Lodge boasts a traditional Par 72 layout comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.

Spanning a formidable 7,466 yards, Bay Hill ranks among the PGA Tour’s lengthiest courses. While distance is advantageous, precision off the tee is equally essential, with the penal 3-inch ryegrass rough demanding accuracy. The course features narrow fairways, emphasizing the significance of proficient tee shots for contenders. With an ample average green size of 7,500 square feet, the course offers a fair challenge. However, in the past, holding greens has proven challenging, primarily due to approach shots often exceeding 200 yards. This year, the greens are expected to be more receptive, benefiting from recent rainfall.

Bay Hill presents an array of hazards, including 84 bunkers, placing it 11th on the list of courses with the most bunkers players will encounter this year. Additionally, water comes into play on nine holes, ranking it ninth in water hazards on the PGA Tour. Furthermore, the forecast predicts significant wind, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, adding an extra layer of difficulty. With previous scoring averages indicating its challenging nature, Bay Hill stands as one of the toughest courses players will encounter all season.

The four Par 3’s range between 199 yards and 231 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 200 – 225 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 2, 231 yards, Par 3: From the tee the second hole appears long and demanding. It is. #2 is 231 yards from the Palmer tees. A smart shot is to favor the right side of the green. If you want you can let the slope help you onto the green. Missing the green left leaves you with a challenging up and down. Once you are on the green you must negotiate a green that tilts right to left.

No. 17, 221 yards, Par 3: The 17th hole is a par 3 that measures 221 yards from the Palmer tees. The putting surface has the beach bunker short of the green. In addition there are bunkers left and long left of the green. In front and wrapping around the right of the green there is water. A tee shot that finds the green is well played and increases your chances for a par.

There are ten Par 4’s at Bay Hill with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 13 is the shortest listed at 382 yards with the longest being No. 9, playing 480 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 9 (+0.299).

No. 3, 434 yards, Par 4: Hole #3 is an attractive par 4 that measures 434 yards from the Palmer tees. Finding the fairway off the tee is the first step to securing a par. There is a lake to the left of the fairway and to the right is thick rough. The green is guarded by water left and bunkers left, right and long. Two accurate shots could offer you a reasonable chance for birdie.

No. 18, 458 yards, Par 4: The 72nd hole of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard, the 18th hole is a par 4 458 yards from the Palmer tees. There is OB along the entire left side of this demanding par 4. To the right of the driving area is thick rough. Ideally, the tee shot should be played left of center. From the left side of the fairway you have options depending on the hole location. If your tee shot finds the rough the smart play is to play towards the left front of the green. If you choose to play aggressive there are bunkers left and long. If you have ever watched the Arnold Palmer Invitational you already knew about the pond guarding the front of the putting surface.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 4, No. 6, No. 12, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.48.

No. 4, 561 yards, Par 5: The fourth hole is a par 5 that measures 561 yards from the Palmer tees. It plays uphill with a creek and OB running along the right side of the hole. It is reachable in two for the longest hitters. Avoid the bunker on the left side of the fairway if you choose to lay up. Regardless of whether you go for the green in two or not the left side of the green is shallow in depth. A miss to the right of the green drops off sharply leaving a difficult up and down. Accuracy is a must into this elevated target if you expect a par or better.

No. 6, 555 yards, Par 5: The 6th hole at Bay Hill is one of the most recognizable holes on the course. It is a par 5 that measures 555 yards from the Palmer tees. With three aggressive swings at conservative targets a birdie opportunity awaits. An overly aggressive swing at an aggressive target could lead to double digits. From the tee you should aim towards the fairway bunkers. If you are playing your second shot from the fairway aim towards the bunker on the right side of the fairway. The green is deep so double check your yardage for your third shot. A par or better is within reach.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6

Key Statistics:

The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Daniel Berger
    • Taylor Moore
    • Davis Thompson
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Aldrich Potgieter
    • Robert MacIntyre
    • Sam Stevens
    • Isaiah Salinda

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past five editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, every winner has ranked 18th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Justin Thomas
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Sepp Straka
    • Nick Taylor
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Lucas Glover
    • Tommy Fleetwood
    • Tom Kim
    • Jake Knapp

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes at Bay Hill Club and Lodge are TifEagle bermudagrass. Over the past three editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, every winner has ranked 17th or better in Strokes Gained: Putting amongst the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Jacob Bridgeman
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Thomas Detry
    • Sam Burns
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Russell Henley
    • Max Greyserman
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Matthieu Pavon

• Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at Bay Hill range between 200-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Xander Schauffle
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Aldrich Potgieter
    • Sam Burns
    • Matt Fitzpatrick
    • Brian Campbell
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Lucas Glover
    • Min Woo Lee

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
  • Five of the ten Par 4’s at Bay Hill range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Daniel Berger
    • Justin Thomas
    • Sam Stevens
    • Nick Taylor
    • Alex Smalley
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Joe Highsmith
    • Russell Henley
    • Michael Kim

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
  • Three of the four Par 5’s at Bay Hill range between 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Sepp Straka
    • Taylor Moore
    • Alex Smalley
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • J.T. Poston
    • Lee Hodges
    • Jake Knapp
    • Adam Scott
    • Billy Horschel

• Driving Distance Gained
  • Bay Hill Club & Lodge is one of the longest courses on Tour playing over 7,400 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Aldrich Potgieter
    • Rory McIlroy
    • Min Woo Lee
    • Cameron Young
    • Byeong Hun An
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Max Greyserman
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Isaiah Salinda
    • Xander Schauffele

• Bogey Avoidance
  • Bay Hill ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Sam Stevens
    • Michael Kim
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Justin Thomas
    • Daniel Berger
    • Brian Harman
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Alex Smalley
    • Hideki Matsuyama

• Scrambling Gained
  • Players who excel at getting up and down from tough spots gain a significant edge in avoiding bogeys and keeping their rounds on track. With smaller-than-average greens and the unpredictable nature of Poa annua surfaces, even the best iron players frequently miss their targets. Skilled scramblers can turn difficult situations into par saves, gaining strokes on the field while others struggle.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Brian Campbell
    • Harris English
    • Michael Kim
    • Patrick Rodgers
    • Alex Smalley
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Andrew Novak
    • Sam Stevens
    • Daniel Berger

• Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
  • Bay Hill Club & Lodge sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 200+ yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Denny McCarthy
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Max Greyserman
  • Akshay Bhatia
  • Kris Ventura
  • Viktor Hovland
  • Nick Dunlap
  • Ludvig Aberg
  • Taylor Pendrith
  • Tom Hoge

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at Bay Hill Club & Lodge has been a strong predictor of future performance in this tournament.

• Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at Bay Hill Club & Lodge):
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Sungjae Im
  • Max Homa
  • Corey Conners
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Harris English
  • Keegan Bradley
  • Viktor Hovland
  • Chris Kirk

The Field:

This year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational will feature a total of 72 competitors. Among them are eighteen of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

• Current FedExCup Points List (projected thru Cognizant Classic)
• Top 30 OWGR – PGA TOUR Members (projected thru Cognizant Classic)
• Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List
• Aon Swing 5 (projected through the Cognizant Classic)
• Aon Next 10 (projected through the Cognizant Classic)
• Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt

Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

• Scottie Scheffler (2024, 2022), Rory McIlroy (2018), Jason Day (2016)

Debutants in the Field:

Akshay Bhatia, Aldrich Potgieter, Andrew Novak, Brian Campbell, Harry Hall, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Koivun, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Rafael Campos, Samuel Stevens

Exemptions:

• Rafael Campos – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
• Mackenzie Hughes – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
• Jackson Koivun – Unrestricted Exemption – Palmer Cup Award Winner
• Min Woo Lee – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
• Justin Rose – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt

Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

• N/A

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

• Will There Be a Playoff at the Arnold Palmer Invitational? (Yes +350 / No -500)

The Arnold Palmer Invitational has not been decided by a playoff since 1999.

Hole-in-One:

• Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Arnold Palmer Invitational? (Yes +155/ No -215)

Recent Horses for Courses (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
  • Price: 11-2

• 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
  • Price: 200-1

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
  • Price: 16-1

• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
  • Price: 12-1

• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
  • Price: 55-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler
  • T10 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T3 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T6 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • T17 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T5 – The Sentry (PGA)

• 2023: Kurt Kitayama
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T23 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T29 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T73 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler
  • T7 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • WON – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
  • T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T25 – The American Express (PGA)
  • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)

• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau
  • T22 – WGC-Workday Championship (PGA)
  • MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
  • T18 – Saudi International (DPWT)
  • T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T34 – The Masters (MAJ)

• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton
  • T6 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
  • T14 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
  • T6 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • 46 – DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (DPWT)
  • WON – Turkish Airlines Open (DPWT)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Scottie Scheffler

2023: Kurt Kitayama

• Tournament Debut

2022: Scottie Scheffler

2021: Bryson Dechambeau

2020: Tyrrell Hatton

Picks:

Outrights

Collin Morikawa (+2000) – DraftKings

Justin Thomas (+2500) – DraftKings

Patrick Cantlay (+2800) – FanDuel

Shane Lowry (+5000) – FanDuel

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.