2025 Belmont Stakes Preview & Picks

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The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is set for Saturday, June 7th, continuing a legacy that dates back to 1867. As the final jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont follows the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, offering one last—and often most demanding—test for the nation’s top 3-year-olds.

Often called the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes is steeped in tradition and excitement. From the iconic blanket of white carnations draped over the winner to the playing of “New York, New York” before the gates open, the race captures the spirit and history of American horse racing. It’s where legends like Secretariat made history with his record-breaking 31-length victory in 1973, and where recent stars like American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) sealed their Triple Crown triumphs.

While the race is traditionally held at Belmont Park over the demanding distance of 1 1/2 miles, the 2025 edition will once again be run at Saratoga Race Course, covering a slightly shorter 1 1/4 miles due to the track’s smaller dimensions. After this, the Belmont Stakes will return to its iconic home at Belmont Park in 2026.

For deeper insights, historical context, and expert picks, don’t miss our latest podcast episode previewing this year’s Belmont Stakes.

Race Information:

  • Date: June 7th, 2025
  • Track: Saratoga Race Course
  • Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 13
  • Post Time: 7:04 PM ET
  • Length: 1 1/4 Mile
  • Purse: $2,000,000
  • Division: Open | Three Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 13 & 14, Leg B Acorn, NY Met, Woody Stephens/Belmont Doubles, Leg F 2-Day Pick 6

TV Schedule:

  • FS1 – 10:30 AM – 2:30 PM ET
  • FOX – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET

Previous Winners & Odds:

  • 2024: Dornoch
    • Odds: 15-1
  • 2023: Arcangelo
    • Odds: 8-1

  • 2022: Mo Donegal
    • Odds: 5-2

  • 2021: Essential Quality
    • Odds: 2-1

  • 2020: Tiz the Law
    • Odds: 6-5

  • 2019: Sir Winston
    • Odds: 12-1

  • 2018: Justify *
    • Odds: 4-5

* Justify was a Tripple Crown Winner

Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:

  • Most Wins by a Trainer:
    • 8 – James G. Rowe Sr. (1883, 1884, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910, 1913)
  • Most Wins by a Jockey:
    • 6 – Jim McLaughlin (1882, 1883, 1884, 1886, 1887, 1888) and Eddie Arcaro (1941, 1942, 1945, 1948, 1952, 1955)
  • Most Wins by an Owner:
    • 6 – Belair Stud (1930, 1932, 1935, 1936, 1939, 1955) and James R. Keene (1879, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910)

Belmont Stakes Historical Post Position Stats:

Here are the 2025 Belmont Stakes post positions, along with historical data for each gate since the starting gate was introduced to the race in 1905:

Post Position Starts Wins Win %Wins Since 2000Last Winner2025 Belmont Entrant
11182420.3%2Justify (2018)Hill Road
21181311.0%2Essential Quality (2021)Sovereignty
31161613.8%4Arcangelo (2023)Rodriguez
4110109.1%2Summer Bird (2009)Uncaged
51021514.7%2American Pharoah (2015)Crudo
69799.3%2Dornoch (2024)Baeza
7841416.7%3Sir Winston (2019)Journalism
87479.5%2Tiz the Law (2020)Heart of Honor
95747.0%2Afleet Alex (2005)None
104012.5%0Thunder Gulch (1995)None
1128310.7%2Tonalist (2014)None
121119.1%1Palace Malice (2013)None
137114.3%1Creator (2016)None
14300.0%0NoneNone
15100.0%0NoneNone

Field:

PostHorse NameJockeyTrainer Odds
1Hill RoadIrad Ortiz, Jr.Chad Brown10-1
2SovereigntyJunior AlvaradoBill Mott2-1
3RodriguezMike SmithBob Baffert6-1
4UncagedLuis SaezTodd Pletcher30-1
5CrudoJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher15-1
6BaezaFlavien PratJohn Shirreffs4-1
7JournalismUmberto RispoliMichael McCarthy8-5
8Heart of HonorSaffie OsborneJamie Osborne30-1

Horse Preview

Hill Road

Name: Hill RoadML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Amo Racing USA
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dam: Exotic Notion (Lemon Drop Kid)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life5202
20252101
20243101
Saratoga Race Course0000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
10May25-Aqueduct1 1/8 MilesGIII Peter Pan 1st
8Mar25-Tampa1 1/16 MilesGIII Tampa Bay Derby3rd
1Nov24-Del Mar1 1/16 MilesG1 BC Juvenile3rd

Sovereignty

Name: SovereigntyML Odds: 2-1
Owner(s): Godolphin LLC
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Dam: Crowned (Bernardini)
Sire: Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life6320
20253210
20243110
Saratoga Race Course1000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
3May25-Churchill Downs1 1/4 MilesGI Kentucky Derby1st
29Mar2-Gulfstream Park1 1/8 MilesGI Florida Derby2nd
1Mar25-Gulfstream Park1 1/16 MilesGII Fountain of Youth1st

Rodriguez

Name: RodriguezML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, et al.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Dam: Cayala (Cherokee Run)
Sire: Authentic (Into Mischief)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life5221
20254211
20241010
Saratoga Race Course0000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
5Apr25-Aqueduct1 1/8 MilesGII Wood Memorial Stakes1st
1Mar25-Santa Anita1 1/16 MilesGII San Felipe Stakes3rd
1Feb25-Santa Anita1 MileGIII Robert B Lewis2nd

Uncaged

Name: UncagedML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): WinStar Farm LLC and Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Dark Nile (Pioneerof the Nile)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life4200
20253100
20241100
Saratoga Race Course1100
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
10May25-Aqueduct1 1/8 MilesGIII Peter Pan6th
6Apr25-Aqueduct1 MileOC 100k/N1X-N1st
2Mar25-Gulfstream Park6 FurlongsOC 75k/N1X-N4th

Crudo

Name: CrudoML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Bobby Flay and James Ventura
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Dam: Blossomed (Deputy Minister)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life3200
20253200
20240000
Saratoga Race Course0000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
17May25-Pimlico1 1/16 MilesSir Barton Stakes 100k1st
19Apr25-Keeneland7 FurlongsMd Sp Wt 110k1st
8Feb25-Gulfstream Park6 FurlongsMd Sp Wt 70k4th

Baeza

Name: BaezaML Odds: 4-1
Owner(s): C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Puca (Big Brown)
Sire: McKinzie (Street Sense)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life5121
20254121
20241000
Saratoga Race Course0000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
3May25-Churchill Downs1 1/4 MilesGI Kentucky Derby3rd
5Apr25-Santa Anita1 1/8 MilesGI Santa Anita Derby2nd
14Feb25-Santa Anita1 MileMd Sp Wt 60k1st

Journalism

Name: JournalismML Odds: 8-5
Owner(s): Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, et al.
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Dam: Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life7511
20254310
20243201
Saratoga Race Course0000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
17May25-Pimlico1 3/16 MilesGI Preakness Stakes1st
3May25-Churchill Downs1 1/4 MilesGI Kentucky Derby2nd
5Apr25-Santa Anita1 1/8 MilesGI Santa Anita Derby1st

Heart of Honor (GB)

Name: Heart of Honor (GB)ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Jim And Claire Limited
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Dam: Ruby Love*Chi (Scat Daddy)
Sire: Honor A. P. (Honor Code)
 Starts1st Place2nd Place3rd Place
Life7240
20255130
20242110
Saratoga Race Course0000
Date-TrackLengthRaceResults
17May25-Pimlico1 3/16 MilesGI Preakness Stakes5th
5Apr25-Meydan (UAE)1 3/16 MilesGII UAE Derby2nd
21Feb25-Meydan (UAE)1 3/16 MilesAl Bastakiya Stakes2nd

Previous Races Against Fellow Entrants:

Date-TrackRaceResults
May 10th, 2025 – PIMGI Preakness(1st) Journalism, (5th) Heart of Honor
May 10th, 2025 – BAQGIII Peter Pan Stakes(1st) Hill Road, (6th) Uncaged
May 3rd, 2025 – CDGI Kentucky Derby(1st) Sovereignty, (2nd) Journalism, (3rd) Baeza
April 5th, 2025 – SAGI Santa Anita Derby(1st) Journalism, (2nd) Baeza
March 11th, 2025 – SAGII San Felipe Stakes(1st) Journalism, (3rd) Rodriguez
January 4th, 2025 – SAMd Sp Wt 60k(1st) Rodriguez, (2nd) Baeza

Projected Pace:

Pacesetter

  • (3) Rodriguez
  • (5) Crudo

Press the Pace/ Stalkers

  • (4) Baeza
  • (6) Uncaged

Closers

  • (1) Hill Road
  • (2) Sovereignty
  • (7) Journalism
  • (8) Heart of Honor

Race Breakdown

When handicapping this year’s Belmont Stakes, the race feels like it runs through three—maybe four—serious contenders. But before we dive into the top threats, let’s first break down the horses I’ll be against on race day: Hill Road, Uncaged, and Heart of Honor.

Tosses

Hill Road made his U.S. debut with promise, finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and later winning the Peter Pan Stakes. While the Peter Pan has produced past Belmont winners, I’m not convinced Hill Road possesses the late kick or stamina to match the elite closers in this field. He’s improved, but not enough to factor against this group.

Uncaged hasn’t progressed since his debut win at Saratoga last summer—that remains his highest speed figure. He finished sixth in the Peter Pan and seems better suited to muddy tracks, where both his wins came. Unless the skies open up on Saturday, he looks completely outclassed.

Heart of Honor was fifth in the Preakness in his North American debut but was never a serious factor. While he’s been consistent overseas, he lacks the cruising speed and closing ability needed to keep up with this field. He’s an easy toss for me.

Exotic Players

Crudo is lightly raced but interesting. He’s won back-to-back starts, including the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day, and has shown steady improvement each time out. He’s bred for the distance—his sire Justify won the Belmont en route to a Triple Crown—and while he’s untested against top-level stakes company, he’s trending the right way. A logical underneath player.

Rodriguez could be dangerous if the race shape falls his way. He won the Wood Memorial in front-running fashion and has had time to recover from a minor setback that kept him out of the Derby and Preakness. If the pace is more moderate than expected, he could steal it on the front end. A live longshot with a proven foundation.

Main Contenders

The top tier features Sovereignty, Baeza, and Journalism—the three most credentialed runners in this field. Sovereignty enters off his Kentucky Derby win, Baeza finished a strong third after a wide trip, and Journalism comes off a gritty Preakness score. Any of them could win with the right setup, but with all three likely to take significant money, I’m more inclined to use them in exotics than single out one as a clear winner.

Exacta Bets

#2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza / #7 Journalism

BOX: #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza

Trifecta Bets

#2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza / #2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza / #3 Rodriguez, #7 Journalism

#6 Baeza, #7 Journalism / #6 Baeza, #7 Journalism / #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez

Superfecta Bets

#7 Journalism/ #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza / #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza / ALL

Pick 3 (Races 11-14)

Race 11: #3 Macho Music, #7 Colloquial, #11 Gate to Wire

Race 12: #2 Integration, #4 Carson’s Run, #6 Spirit of St Louis

Race 13: #2 Sovereignty, #7 Journalism

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.