For an in-depth breakdown of the Kentucky Derby, be sure to check out our latest podcast episode where we take a full deep dive into the Run for the Roses.
The 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3rd.
The Kentucky Derby serves as the inaugural stage of the American Triple Crown for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. Annually hosted at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, it falls on the initial Saturday in May, a tradition upheld since 1875. Spanning a distance of 1 1/4 miles, the race stands as an iconic hallmark in the realm of horse racing. It’s open to both colts and fillies, though colts traditionally dominate the field.
Participation in the Kentucky Derby hinges on qualification through a series of preparatory events dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby. These stakes races occur nationwide, granting Derby qualifying points to the top four contenders. The final roster of Derby entrants comprises horses amassing the most qualifying points, with two coveted positions out of 20 reserved for top qualifiers from European and Japanese Road to the Derby events.
It’s often referred to as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” due to the race’s approximately two-minute duration. The Derby is renowned for its traditions, including the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” as the horses parade to the starting gate and the mint julep, a traditional drink made with bourbon, sugar, water, and mint, which is closely associated with the event.
Race Information:
- Date: May 3rd, 2025
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
- Event Grade: Grade I
- Race: 12
- Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
- Length: 1 1/4 Mile
- Purse: $5,000,000
- Division: Open | Three Years Old
- Surface: Dirt
- Wagers: Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14) Super Hi-5
TV Schedule:
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
Weather:
The National Weather Service is calling for a 90% chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday, with temperatures peaking around 66°F. The Weather Channel projects it to be 61°F at 7 p.m. — just minutes after post time — with a reduced 40% chance of rain at that hour. However, rain chances remain above 60% from late morning through the afternoon. While Churchill Downs saw light drizzle during last year’s Derby, the race hasn’t been heavily affected by wet conditions since back-to-back muddy editions in 2018 and 2019.
If the track turns sloppy, keep an eye on #2 Neoequos and #5 American Promise — both are strong candidates who have won in these conditions before.
Previous Winners & Odds:
- 2024: Mystic Dan
- Odds: 20-1
- 2023: Mage
- Odds: 15-1
- 2022: Rich Strike *
- Odds: 80-1
- 2021: Mandaloun **
- Odds: 15-1
- 2020: Authentic
- Odds: 8-1
- 2019: Country House ***
- Odds: 65-1
- 2018: Justify
- Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)
* Rich Strike had the second-longest odds ever to win at 80-1. The biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby was Donerail in 1913 going off at 91-1.
** Medina Spirit won the race but was disqualified after failing a post-race drug test. Trainer Bob Baffert was issued a two-year ban from Churchill Downs and is currently serving the second year of his sentence.
*** Maximum Security won the race but was disqualified due to interference. This was the first time ever that a horse got disqualified for a foul during the Kentucky Derby. He also had the third-longest odds ever to win at 65-1.
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
- Most Wins by a Trainer:
- 6, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
- 6, Ben A. Jones (1938, 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952)
- Most Wins by a Jockey:
- 5, Eddie Arcaro (1938, 1941, 1945, 1948, 1952)
- 5, Bill Hartack (1957, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969)
- Most Wins by an Owner:
- 8, Calumet Farm (1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952, 1957, 1958, 1968)
Kentucky Derby Historical Post Position Stats:
The starting gate was first utilized in the 1930 Kentucky Derby. Since then, every post position has had a winner besides No. 17. Overall, post position No. 5 has had the most winning horses with 10. Since 2000, ten winners have come from either gate 5 or 10.
| Post Position | Wins |
| 1 | (8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937) |
| 2 | (7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946) |
| 3 | (6) Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942); Mystic Dan (2024) |
| 4 | (5) Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941) |
| 5 | (10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931) |
| 6 | (2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957) |
| 7 | (8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930) |
| 8 | (8) Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934); Mage (2023) |
| 9 | (4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951) |
| 10 | (9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935) |
| 11 | (2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933) |
| 12 | (3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945) |
| 13 | (4) Nyquist (2016) Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932) |
| 14 | (2) Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950) |
| 15 | (6) Authentic (2020); American Pharoah (2015); Orb (2013); Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984) |
| 16 | (4) Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995) |
| 17 | (0) |
| 18 | (2) Country House (2019); Gato Del Sol (1982) |
| 19 | (1) I’ll Have Another (2012) |
| 20 | (2) Rich Strike (2022); Big Brown (2008) |
Field:
| Post Position | Horse | Morning Line (ML) Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | Luis Saez | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | Luan Machado | Brad Cox |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | Nik Juarez | D. Wayne Lukas |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | Christophe Lemaire | Yukihiro Kato |
| 7 | Luxor Café | 15-1 | João Moreira | Noriyuki Hori |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | Umberto Rispoli | Michael McCarthy |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Ian Wilkes |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | Joseph Ramos | Whit Beckman |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | Manny Franco | Brendan Walsh |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Steve Asmussen |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | Joel Rosario | Steve Asmussen |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30-1 | Julien Leparoux | Ken McPeek |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | Juan Vargas | Lonnie Briley |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | Jose Ortiz | Mark Casse |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | Jareth Loveberry | Ethan West |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | Javier Castellano | Brian Lynch |
| 21 | Baeza | 12-1 | Flavien Prat | John Shirreffs |
Horse Preview
| Post Position | Horse | Career Record | Stakes Finishes | Top Equibase Speed Figure | Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 6 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third | 4th Santa Anita 1st Robert B Lewis 1st BC Juvenile | 107 | 71.25 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 7 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 2 thirds | 3rd Florida Derby 3rd Fountain of Youth | 100 | 40 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 4 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third | 1st Jeff Ruby Stakes | 96 | 100 |
3rd San Felipe 2nd Robert B Lewis | |||||
| 5 | American Promise | 9 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third | 1st Virginia Derby 5th Risen Star 6th Southwest | 102 | 55 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds | 1st UAE Derby | N/A | N/A |
| 7 | Luxor Café | 6 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds | 1st Fukuryu Stakes | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | Journalism | 5 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third | 1st Santa Anita 1st San Felipe 1st Los Al Futurity | 110 | 112.5 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 6 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 1 third | 1st Blue Grass 4th Fountain of Youth 1st Holy Bull | 104 | 130 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds | 2nd Jeff Ruby Stakes | 97 | 50 |
| 12 | East Avenue | 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds | 2nd Blue Grass 10th Risen Star 9th BC Juvenile | 104 | 60 |
| 13 | Publisher | 7 starts – 0 wins – 2 seconds – 3 thirds | 2nd Arkansas Derby 4th Rebel 6th Southwest | 100 | 60 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 8 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds | 1st Louisiana Derby 5th Rebel 3rd Southwest 3rd KY Jockey Club 2nd Street Sense | 99 | 119 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 7 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third | 5th Blue Grass 2nd Virginia Derby 8th Risen Star | 98 | 39 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 8 starts – 5 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third | 3rd Arkansas 1st Rebel | 95 | |
| 17 | Sandman | 8 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds | 1st Arkansas Derby 3rd Rebel 2nd Southwest | 104 | 129 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds | 2nd Florida Derby 1st Fountain of Youth 1st Street Sense | 99 | 110 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 4 starts – 1 win – 3 seconds – 0 thirds | 2nd Louisiana 2nd Risen Star | 96 | 75 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 7 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds | 6th Blue Grass 1st Tampa Bay | 98 | 65 |
| 21 (AE) | Baeza | 4 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds | 2nd Santa Anita | 107 | 37.5 |
Projected Pace:
Track Phantom
Pacesetter
- #1 Citizen Bull
- #2 Neoequos
- #6 Admire Daytona
- #12 East Avenue
- #20 Owen Almighty
Press the Pace
- #5 American Promise
- #7 Luxor Café
Stalker
- #8 Journalism
- #16 Coal Battle
- #19 Chunk of Gold
- #21 Baeza
Closers
- #9 Burnham Square
- #11 Flying Mohawk
- #14 Tiztastic
- #15 Render Judgment
- #18 Sovereignty
Deep Closers
- #3 Final Gambit
- #13 Publisher
- #17 Sandman
Tosses: Horses I’m Leaving Off My Tickets
These are the horses I’m excluding from my win bets and top positions. While one or two might sneak into the bottom of an exotic, I don’t view them as serious contenders for the 151st Kentucky Derby.
#2 Neoequos
He’s a pace presser stuck with a poor post draw, which isn’t ideal considering the crowded early setup expected in this race. I also have concerns about his ability to handle the Derby distance — there’s just not enough upside here to trust him.
#6 Admire Daytona
This Japanese-bred colt was clearly second-best when facing Luxor Café earlier this year, finishing fourth in their February clash. He’ll try to flash early speed, but I don’t think he’s quick enough to gain a favorable position. He punched his Derby ticket with a razor-thin win in one of the weakest UAE Derbies in recent memory — not the strongest endorsement.
#11 Flying Mohawk
Unless Flying Mohawk takes a massive leap forward in terms of speed figures, it’s tough to see him factoring here. He’s also making his first career start on dirt, which adds more uncertainty to the equation.
Additional Tosses: #12 East Avenue, #15 Render Judgement, #20 Owen Almighty
In a 20-horse field, you have to draw the line somewhere — and for me, these are the names I’m crossing off.
Win Bets
#21 Baeza
With the scratches of #4 Rodrigues and #10 Grande, Baeza has officially drawn into the field for the 151st Kentucky Derby. Though a late addition, this maturing 3-year-old is no mere filler — he’s a legitimate contender. A half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza nearly defeated current favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, falling just three-quarters of a length short over 1 1/8 miles. Despite breaking from the far outside post, his stalking running style should allow him to avoid early traffic and settle in just behind the leaders. He’s shown steady improvement in every start, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him flip the script on Journalism here.
#7 Luxor Café
No Japanese-bred horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby — but that may soon change. Luxor Café comes into Churchill Downs riding a four-race win streak, including three stakes victories where he was the post-time favorite each time. He’s been improving with every effort and was impressive in his most recent start in the Fukuryu Stakes. Sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Café is bred for this distance and stage. With his current form and pedigree, he deserves serious consideration.
Longshot Bets
#3 Final Gambit
Looking for a longshot? Final Gambit could be your horse. Though he’s never raced on dirt or against this level of competition, there are a few key factors that make him intriguing. He’s bred for both distance and dirt, and his inside post position could allow him to save ground and take advantage of what is expected to be a hot early pace. In his last start, he took a major step forward in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, beating fellow Derby contender Flying Mohawk and earning a career-best speed figure — a 27-point improvement from his prior race. He’ll be overlooked at the windows, but he has the profile of a horse who could shock at a price.
Exacta Bets
#18 Sovereignty / #3 Final Gambit, #7 Luxor Café, #9 Burnham Sqaure, #14 Tiztastic, #21 Baeza
#7 Luxor Café, #21 Baeza / #3 Final Gambit, #7 Luxor Café, #9 Burnham Sqaure, #14 Tiztastic, #18 Sovereignty, #21 Baeza
#3 Final Gambit, #7 Luxor Café, #9 Burnham Sqaure, #16 Coal Battle, #21 Baeza / #8 Journalism
I’ll be finalizing and potentially expanding this list tomorrow — but these are the combinations I’m locking in for now!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
