2025 The Sentry Preview & Picks

The 2025 FedExCup season tees off this week in Hawaii with the “Opening Drive” at The Sentry, held at the iconic Plantation Course at Kapalua. Featuring 60 of the TOUR’s top players, The Sentry serves as the first event of the 2025 FedExCup Regular Season and Playoffs schedule. This year’s field includes four FedExCup Champions, 31 PGA TOUR winners (15 of whom earned their first TOUR title in 2024), and 29 players who finished inside the top 50 of the 2024 FedExCup standings. As the first of eight Signature Events on the schedule, The Sentry brings together PGA TOUR winners from the previous calendar year and the top 50 members from the 2024 standings.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Scottie Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler withdrew from The Sentry earlier this week after sustaining a puncture wound to the palm of his right hand during Christmas dinner preparations. According to his manager, Blake Smith, “Scottie suffered the injury from a broken glass, which left small fragments in his hand and required surgery.” Scheffler’s recovery is expected to take three to four weeks.

Viktor Hovland

Viktor Hovland is playing through an unusual holiday mishap of his own, having broken his pinky toe on a bed frame. Despite the injury, Hovland remains in the field and is set to compete in this season-opening event.

Chris Kirk

Defending champion Chris Kirk is making his sixth appearance at The Sentry. He will look to become the first player to successfully defend his title at the event since Geoff Ogilvy accomplished the feat in 2010.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: January 2nd – January 5th, 2025
• Location: Lahaina, Hawaii, United States
• Course: Port Royal Golf Course
• Course Type: Coastal
• Par: 73 (3x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,596 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
• Fairways: Celebration bermudagrass .375”
• Rough: Celebration bermudagrass 2.5”
• Bunkers: 93 (145,731 sq. ft / 3.34 acres)
• Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 8,722 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 700
• Field: 60 Players
• Cut: No Cut
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2024: 68.37 (-4.63), Rank 51 of 51
  • 2023: 68.92 (-4.08), Rank 49 of 49
  • 2022: 68.22 (-4.78), Rank 50 of 50

Social Media:

• Course X: @GolfatKapalua
• Tournament X: @TheSentry

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (1991)
• Renovations: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (2019)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

• Comparable Courses:
  • Augusta National – Masters Tournament – RESULTS
  • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open – RESULTS
  • Congaree Golf Club – The 2022 CJ Cup in South Carolina – RESULTS

• Comparable Location (Lahaina, Hawaii):
  • Waialae Country Club – Honolulu, Hawaii, United States – Sony Open in Hawaii

• Designer Link (Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (1991)):
  • Riviera Country Club – Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw Renovation (1992)  – The Genesis Invitational

• Comparable Yardage (7,596 Yards):
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – 7,533 Yards – the Memorial Tournament
  • Quail Hollow Club – 7,521 Yards – Wells Fargo Championship

• Comparable Greens (TifEagle bermudagrass .110”):
  • Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) – Tif Eagle bermudagrass .090” – RSM Classic
  • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – The Honda Classic
  • Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – TifEagle bermudagrass .110” – Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Port Royal Golf Course – Tif Eagle bermudagrass .125” – The Butterfield Bermuda Championship
  • Albany – TifEagle bermudagrass .085” – Hero World Challenge

• Comparable Average Green Size (8,722 sq. ft.):
  • El Cardonal at Diamante – 8,300 sq. ft. – World Wide Technology Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, January 2nd, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 12:30 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, January 3rd, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 12:45 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, January 4th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
  • NBC/ Peacock – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, January 5th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
  • NBC/ Peacock – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The Sentry Tournament of Champions is a prestigious PGA Tour event that brings together winners from the previous calendar year. It was first established in 1953 and initially held at the Desert Inn Country Club in Las Vegas, Nevada, where it remained until 1968. In 1969, the tournament moved to La Costa Resort and Spa in Carlsbad, California, where it was played for nearly three decades. Seeking a more picturesque and unique setting, the tournament relocated in 1999 to its current home, the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort on the island of Maui, Hawaii. Known for its breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean and its challenging yet scenic layout, the Plantation Course has since become synonymous with the event. The tournament traditionally kicks off the PGA Tour calendar year, offering a relaxed yet competitive atmosphere as champions from the previous year compete against each other. In 2018, Sentry Insurance became the title sponsor, further solidifying the event’s stature on the tour.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua, located on the island of Maui, Hawaii, is one of the most iconic golf courses in the world, renowned for its stunning ocean views and challenging design. Opened in 1991, the course was co-designed by legendary architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, who aimed to create a layout that harmonized with Maui’s natural landscape. Set on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains, the course features dramatic elevation changes, expansive fairways, and wide greens, making it both a strategic challenge and a breathtaking experience for players. The Plantation Course has been the home of the Sentry Tournament of Champions since 1999, hosting PGA Tour winners in a celebrated start to the calendar year. Its distinctive design encourages risk-reward shot-making, with trade winds adding an unpredictable element. Among its most famous holes is the par-5 18th, where players can experience one of the longest drives on the tour thanks to its downhill layout. Over the years, the course has undergone enhancements to maintain its status as one of golf’s premier destinations, most notably in 2019, when Coore and Crenshaw led a major renovation to update its playability and agronomy while preserving its unique character.

Previous Tournament Venues:

Previous Tournament Names:

Tournament Records:

• 72-Hole Record (The Sentry):
  • 258, Cameron Smith (2022)

• Largest Margin of Victory (The Sentry):
  • 13 Strokes – Gene Littler (1955)
• Largest Margin of Victory (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
  • 9 Strokes – David Duval (1999)

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1977)

Course Records:

• 72-Hole Record (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
  • 258, Cameron Smith (2022)
• 18-Hole Record (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
  • 61, Jon Rahm (third round, 2022), Justin Thomas (third round, 2022), Matt Jones (final round, 2022), Justin Rose (final round, 2024)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour schedule and is a bomber’s paradise, stretching roughly 7,600 yards. It features four par 5s, each playing over 525 yards, including the 18th hole, which measures an astounding 677 yards. Despite the course’s length, elevation changes significantly impact how it plays, allowing some players to reach the 18th in two shots.

The course’s primary defense is its exposure to coastal winds and dramatic elevation changes, which create challenging blind approach shots. In fact, the Plantation Course has the most substantial elevation changes of any course on tour.

The three Par 3’s range from 161 to 219 yards. Last year, all of the par 3’s had a scoring average under par.

No. 2, 219 yards, Par 3: The second hole is a crossing downwind par three to a large green angled from left to right. The tilt of the green plus the direction and force of the wind favor shots that fade and are played with finesse. Running approaches are encouraged and rewarded here.

No. 8, 199 yards, Par 3: The eighth is a middle iron par three playing across a native canyon to a receptive green. The green that slopes back- to-front and right-to-left was built to hold and nurse the ball to the left, given the strong trade winds from the right.

No. 11, 161 yards, Par 3: The last par three of the course demands and rewards thought and finesse. The desired tee shot is a short iron that either “cuts” and “holds” into the wind blowing from the player’s right shoulder or one that allows for drift and uses the approach and slope of the green for assistance. A shot flown directly to the back left pin will not likely be tried more than once as holding the green is very tough due to the difficulty in holding the sloping green.

The Plantation Course has 11 par 4s, most of which measure between 400 and 450 yards. Last year, the toughest par 4—and the only hole to play over par—was the first, with a scoring average of +0.059.

No. 1, 520 yards, Par 4: The opening hole at The Plantation Course introduces the character, scale and drama of the course about to be played. It is a downhill, downwind par four of immense proportion. An adequate tee shot assisted by the wind and slope should leave a middle-to-long iron approach to an expansive and welcoming green that slopes from left to right. The difficulty of this hole is more psychological than physical.

No. 6, 424 yards, Par 4: Another hole representative of earlier architectural forms, the sixth is a spectacular and mysterious par four affording alternate routes to the green. Playing through strong crossing winds from the right, the ideal tee shot is one played more dangerously, powerfully and accurately across the cliffs to the right side of the fairway. From there, the player will be afforded an adequate view of the green. Those choosing the more conservative left-side route will have to play their approaches to a green unseen over the hill. Check the hole location as there is a spine that runs down the middle of the green, and if you are on the wrong side a 2 putt will be a premium.

No. 13, 383 yards, Par 4: One of the most difficult par fours on the course, the thirteenth is a long hole made longer and more difficult by the prevailing trade winds. Low, boring tee shots and long iron or fairway wood approaches are necessary to reach this deep and deceptive green in regulation. Putts numbering three or more will also be commonplace given the green’s size and slope and the wind’s effects.

The four par 5s—No. 5, No. 9, No. 15, and No. 18—are critical scoring opportunities, with all averaging under par in 2024.

No. 5, 526 yards, Par 5: The fifth hole of The Plantation Course is a natural and daring par five that slopes from left to right all the way. A bunker was added in the middle of the fairway during the 2019 refinement. An example of the classical “cape” concept of golf architecture, the fairway culminates at a green perched on a peninsula high above the canyon that borders the entire right side of the hole. The nature of the hole entices the player to “have a go” after a fine drive. Courage, but not foolhardiness, is rewarded here.

No. 18, 677 yards, Par 5: One of the most famous holes in all of golf, 18 is the hole around which the rest of the course was created. The eighteenth is an extremely long downhill, downwind par five. Despite its length, the hole is made reachable in two powerful blows by the assisting winds and slope. The fairway and green are large and receptive, yet difficult to judge, owing to the vast panorama and scale of the background. The eighteenth is probably the most scenic, spectacular and representative of all the holes at The Plantation Course. Its scale and drama are uncommon and its challenge is within reason, while its surrounding beauty is unparalleled.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

Key Statistics:

As The Sentry takes place at Kapalua Resort, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset for the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort.

• Driving Distance
  • The course’s wide fairways and downhill holes favor players who can hit long, high drives. The par-5 18th, for example, often produces some of the longest drives on the PGA Tour.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Byeong Hun An
    • Chris Gotterup
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Jhonattan Vegas
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Max Greyserman
    • Stephan Jaeger
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Jake Knapp
    • Justin Thomas

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • A strong iron game is crucial for success on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Tony Finau
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Eric Cole
    • Aaron Rai
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Harry Hall
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Jhonattan Vegas
    • Sepp Straka
      

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • The large greens and sloping terrain mean missed approaches often leave challenging recovery shots. Players with strong short-game skills can save crucial pars.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Harry Hall
    • Tony Finau
    • Justin Thomas
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Adam Scott
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Cameron Young
    • Cam Davis
    • J.T. Poston

• Strokes Gained: Total (Moderate Conditions)
  • The Plantation Course is exposed to trade winds, which can significantly impact ball flight. Players who can adjust to changing wind conditions and control their trajectory tend to perform well.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Adam Scott
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Will Zalatoris
    • Harry Hall
    • Sam Burns
    • Patrick Cantlay
    • Corey Conners

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The Greens on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort are TifEagle bermudagrass. The greens at Kapalua are expansive and feature significant contours. Success often depends on mastering long lag putts and converting mid-range opportunities on the grainy Bermuda grass.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Thomas Detry
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Max Greyserman
    • Jason Day
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Davis Riley
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Russell Henley

• Par 4 Scoring
  • Par 4 scoring is crucial at Kapalua because the Plantation Course only features three par 3s and four par 5s, leaving a majority of the holes—11 in total—as par 4s. While the par 5s offer excellent scoring opportunities, the par 4s are where the tournament is often won or lost. Many of these par 4s are unique, featuring dramatic elevation changes, wide fairways, and challenging approach shots into large, undulating greens. Players who can consistently take advantage of the shorter par 4s while managing the longer, more difficult ones can separate themselves from the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Russell Henley
    • Adam Scott
    • Max Greyserman
    • Robert MacIntyre
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Patrick Cantlay
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Sungjae Im
    • Hideki Matsuyama

• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x3)
  • Three of the four par 5s on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort range between 500 and 550 yards, making them reachable in two shots for longer hitters. Capitalizing on these scoring opportunities is essential for staying competitive.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Davis Thompson
    • Max Greyserman
    • Byeong Hun An
    • Adam Hadwin
    • Justin Thomas
    • Patton Kizzire
    • Brice Garnett
    • Matt Fitzpatrick
    • Aaron Rai
    • Denny McCarthy

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • Low scores are a staple of the tournament, with winning scores typically around -25 or better. Players must capitalize on birdie opportunities, especially on the par 4s and par 5s.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Max Greyserman
    • Sam Burns
    • Harry Hall
    • Adam Scott
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Nico Echavarria
    • Cam Davis
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Si Woo Kim
    • Viktor Hovland

• Scrambling Gained
  • The course features wide fairways but places a premium on precision around the greens. The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is known for its undulating putting surfaces, deep bunkers, and coastal winds, all of which increase the difficulty of getting up and down when players miss greens.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Harry Hall
    • Max Greyserman
    • Eric Cole
    • Alex Noren
    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Justin Thomas
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout

• Proximity Gained: 75-100 & 200+ Yards
  • The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 75-100 yard and 200-225 yard ranges compared to the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Russell Henley
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Cam Davis
  • Davis Riley
  • Tom Hoge
  • Nico Echavarria
  • Taylor Pendrith
  • Ludvig Aberg
  • Chris Gotterup
  • Wyndham Clark

• Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Max Greyserman
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Eric Cole
  • Austin Eckroat
  • Justin Thomas
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Harry Hall
  • Viktor Hovland
  • Nico Exhavarria
  • Sam Burns

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort has shown to be beneficial for players.

• Leaders in this category (Scoring Average Per Round, Multiple Events Played):
  • Sungjae Im
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Tom Hoge
  • Sepp Straka
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Cameron Young
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Brian Harman
  • Patrick Cantlay

The Field:

• Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
  • Current Tournament Winners
  • Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Chris Kirk (2024), Justin Thomas (2020, 2017), Xander Schauffele (2019)

• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Aaron Rai, Alexander Noren, Austin Eckroat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Christopher Gotterup, Davis Thompson, Harry Hall, Jake Knapp, Kevin Yu, Matt McCarty, Matthieu Pavon, Maverick McNealy, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Rafael Campos, Robert MacIntyre, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry

• Sponsors Exemptions:
  • None

• Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
  • Scottie Scheffler (W/D – Hand)

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

• Will There Be a Playoff at The Sentry? (Yes +350 / No -500)

The last playoff at The Sentry occurred in 2021 when Harris English defeated Joaquin Niemann. Since the tournament’s move to the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in 1999, there have been a total of eight playoffs.

Hole-in-One:

• Will There Be A Hole-in-One at The Sentry? (Yes +230 / No -320)

There have been only four holes-in-one in the history of The Sentry, with the most recent achieved by Patton Kizzire in 2019.

Wire to Wire Winner:

• Will There Be A Wire to Wire Winner at The Sentry? (Yes +800)

Since The Sentry moved to its current venue, there have been only two wire-to-wire winners.

Recent Horses for Courses (Event):

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2024: Chris Kirk (-29)
  • Price: 150-1

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
  • Price: 7-1

• 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
  • Price: 28-1

• 2021: Harris English (-25)
  • Price: 33-1

• 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • Price: 11-2

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2024: Chris Kirk
  • T28 – RSM Classic (PGA)
  • MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • T29 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T16 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Wyndham Championship

• 2023: Jon Rahm
  • T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T4 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
  • WON – DP World Tour Championship (EUR)
  • WON – acciona Open de Espana (DPWT)
  • T2 – BMW PGA Championship (DPWT)

• 2022: Cameron Smith
  • T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T15 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
  • T9 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T14 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T34 – BMW Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Harris English
  • T5 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T6 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T28 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
  • 10 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)

• 2020: Justin Thomas
  • T5 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T17 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
  • WON – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T4 – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • T3 – TOUR Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Chris Kirk

2023: Jon Rahm

2022: Cameron Smith

2021: Harris English

2020: Justin Thomas

Picks:

Outrights

Sungjae Im (+1800) – FanDuel/ DraftKings

Sahith Theegala (+2800) – FanDuel

Akshay Bhatia (+3500) – FanDuel

Brian Harman (+5500) – FanDuel

Nico Echavarria (+12000) – FanDuel

Top 20 (Inc. Ties)

Max Greyserman (+105) – DraftKings

Eric Cole (+150) – DraftKings

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.