2025 WM Phoenix Open Preview & Picks

Congrats to all the Rory backers at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! Unfortunately, I wasn’t on him, but we did cash both of our placement bets this week—Jason Day T20 (+110) and Taylor Pendrith T20 (+140).

The WM Phoenix Open marks the sixth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy secured his 27th PGA TOUR victory last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, closing with a final-round 66 to claim a two-shot win over Shane Lowry.

Nick Taylor

Nick Taylor returns as the defending champion of the WM Phoenix Open, having finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in 2023 before claiming the title last year. He’s already found success this season, winning the Sony Open in Hawaii by defeating Nico Echavarria in a playoff.

Scottie Scheffler

The World No. 1 and reigning FedExCup Champion is making his sixth appearance at TPC Scottsdale, where he’s been dominant. A two-time WM Phoenix Open champion (2022, 2023), Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four starts at this event. His 2022 victory at TPC Scottsdale marked the first of his 13 career TOUR wins.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 6th – February 9th, 2025
• Location: Scottsdale, Arizona, United States
• Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
• Course Type: Desert
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,261 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa trivialis / bentgrass / ryegrass overseed
• Fairways: Ryegrass / fine fescue overseed
• Rough: Ryegrass / fine fescue overseed
• Bunkers: 67
• Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,200,000 /$1,656,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field: 132 Players
• Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death – 18, 18, 17, 18 (repeated)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2024: 69.90 (-1.10), Rank 25 of 51
  • 2023: 70.98 (-0.02), Rank 17 of 49
  • 2022: 70.29 (-0.71), Rank 26 of 50
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2024: -2
  • 2023: E
  • 2022: -2

Social Media:

• Course X: @tpcscottsdale
• Tournament X: @WMPhoenixOpen

Course Information:

Course Architect:

• Course Architect: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris (1986)
• Renovations: Tom Weiskopf (2014)

Comparable Courses

• TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship – RESULTS
• TPC Summerlin – Shriners Children’s Open – RESULTS

Comparable Location (Scottsdale, Arizona, United States):

• TPC Summerlin – Las Vegas, Nevada – Shriners Children’s Open
• Summit Club – Las Vegas, Nevada – THE CJ CUP 2021
• Black Desert Resort – Ivins, Utah – Black Desert Championship

Designer Link (Tom Weiskopf):

• TPC Craig Ranch – Tom Weiskopf (2004) – CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Comparable Yardage (7,261 Yards):

• TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
• TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship
• Farmers Insurance Open – 7,258 Yards – Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course)

Comparable Greens (Poa trivialis / bentgrass / ryegrass overseed):

• TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis / velvet bentgrass .100” – THE PLAYERS Championship

Comparable Average Green Size (7,069 sq. ft.)

• PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – 7, 000 sq. ft. – The American Express
• Vidanta Vallarta – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Mexico Open at Vidanta
• Memorial Park Golf Course – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Texas Children’s Houston Open
• The Renaissance Club – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Genesis Scottish Open
• PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
• Black Desert Resort – 7,000 sq. ft. – Black Desert Championship
• Waialae Country Club – 7,100 sq. ft. – Sony Open in Hawaii

TV Information (all times ET):

• Round 1: Thursday, February 6th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, February 7th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, February 8th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, February 9th, 2025
  • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 10:30 APM – 1:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

TPC Scottsdale, home of the WM Phoenix Open, opened in 1986 and quickly became one of the most recognizable courses on the PGA TOUR. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, the course was built to host a TOUR event, offering a challenging yet spectator-friendly layout. The Stadium Course, the tournament’s primary venue, is famous for its dramatic finishing stretch, highlighted by the par-3 16th hole, which has evolved into the most iconic amphitheater setting in golf. Over the years, TPC Scottsdale has undergone renovations, including a 2014 redesign by Weiskopf to modernize the course and enhance playability.

The WM Phoenix Open, often referred to as “The People’s Open,” has a rich history dating back to its inception in 1932. Originally played at Phoenix Country Club, the tournament moved to TPC Scottsdale in 1987, where it has since become one of the most electric events on the PGA TOUR. Known for its raucous crowds, the event’s signature par-3 16th hole—often called “The Coliseum”—transforms into a stadium-like setting, creating an unmatched atmosphere in professional golf. Over the years, legends like Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Phil Mickelson, and Tiger Woods have left their mark on the event, with Mickelson holding the record for the most wins (three). The tournament is also recognized for its strong charitable efforts, with proceeds benefiting local organizations through The Thunderbirds, a civic group that has run the event since 1939.

Previous Tournament Venues:

Previous Tournament Names:

Tournament Records:

• 72-Hole Record (Tournament – WM Phoenix Open):
  • 256, Phil Mickelson (2013 – TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course))

• 18-Hole Record (Tournament – WM Phoenix Open):
  • 60, Nick Taylor (2024), Phil Mickelson (2013), Phil Mickelson (2005), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996)

• Largest Margin of Victory (Tournament – WM Phoenix Open):
  • 14 Strokes – Johnny Miller (1975)

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 3, Phil Mickelson (2013, 2005, 1996), Mark Calcavecchi (1989, 1992, 2001), Gene Littler (1969, 1959, 1955), Arnold Palmer (1961, 1962, 1963)

Course Records:

• 72-Hole Record (TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)):
  • 256, Phil Mickelson (2013 – TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course))

• 18-Hole Record (TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)):
  • 60, Nick Taylor (2024), Phil Mickelson (2013), Phil Mickelson (2005), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Scottsdale, originally designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, underwent a significant renovation in 2014, led by Weiskopf. The updates modernized the course, enhancing bunker placements, improving greens, and refining turf conditions to increase the challenge.

This Par 71 course stretches 7,216 yards and features four par 3s, twelve par 4s, and two par 5s. As a classic desert layout, its firm fairways allow shorter hitters to stay competitive, while elevation provides extra distance off the tee. However, accuracy is key, as TPC Scottsdale boasts some of the narrowest fairways on TOUR, making precision off the tee a crucial factor this week.

The four Par 3’s range from 163 to 215 yards. Last year, the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average over par were No. 7 and No. 12.

No. 16, 163 yards, Par 3: This is the signature hole on the course and what most spectators come to the event for. It’s truly an atmosphere, unlike any other hole on the PGA Tour. Several bunkers surround the green which is the only threat players will face.

There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 11.

No. 14, 490 Yards, Par 4: This is another challenging hole that also played over par last year. Off the tee, players will have an uphill shot that’s fairly straightforward. The difficulty comes into play on their approach shot with an elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. If players do miss left of the putting surface it’ll make an up-and-down significantly more difficult.

No. 17, 332 yards, Par 4: This is a drivable short par 4 that players will need to compose themselves for after playing the 16th. Water does come into play along the left side so any miss should be right.

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 13, and No. 15. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024. Hole No. 13 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.521 below par.

No. 3, 558 yards, Par 5: This is the first Par 5 that players will face on the course. Off the tee, players will try to avoid fairway bunkers along the left side allowing them to go for the green in two. They’ll face a two-tiered green on their approach shot which can lead to some difficult putts depending on the pin location.

No. 15, 553 yards, Par 5: This is a thrilling risk-reward Par 5 that plays a crucial role in the tournament’s closing stretch. A well-struck tee shot favoring the left side sets up an aggressive approach, but water guards the front and left of the green, punishing any mis-hit attempts to reach in two. Players laying up must navigate a fairway that narrows near the water, leaving a short iron or wedge into a firm, undulating green.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

Key Statistics:

The WM Phoenix Open takes place on the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course).

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • TPC Scottsdale rewards players who can drive the ball long and accurately. With firm fairways and a desert layout, setting up quality approach shots starts with strong tee play. Over the past nine WM Phoenix Open editions, eight winners have ranked 20th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Luke Clanton
    • Matthias Schmid
    • Daniel Berger
    • Samuel Stevens
    • Min Woo Lee
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Bud Cauley
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Gary Woodland
    • Maverick McNealy
      

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past nine editions of the WM Phoenix Open, seven of the winners have ranked 9th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Lucas Glover
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Antoine Rozner
    • McClure (Mac) Meissner
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Matt Kuchar
    • Charley Hoffman
    • Joohyung (Tom) Kim

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Firm and Fast)
  • The green complexes at TPC Scottsdale have historically been ‘Firm’ and ‘Fast’. Over the past seven WM Phoenix Open editions, every winner has ranked 18th or higher in Strokes Gained: Putting among the field.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Max Homa
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Taylor Moore
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Brendon Todd
    • Matt Kuchar
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Taylor Montgomery
    • Sam Ryder

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
  • Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) range from 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Rickie Fowler
    • Nick Taylor
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Lucas Glover
    • Patrick Fishburn
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Nicolas (Nico) Echavarria
    • Samuel Stevens

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-500 Yards
  • Ten of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) range from 400-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • J.T. Poston
    • Greyson Sigg
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Joel Dahmen
    • Robert MacIntyre
    • Rickie Fowler
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Lucas Glover
  • Leaders in this Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Joe Highsmith
    • Eric Cole
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Patrick Fishburn
    • Lee Hodges
    • Carson Young
    • Corey Conners
    • Justin Thomas
    • Henrik Norlander
    • Daniel Berger

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
  • All three of the Par 5’s at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) range from 550-600 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Min Woo Lee
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Gary Woodland
    • Kevin Streelman
    • Andrew Novak
    • Luke Clanton
    • Kyoung-Hoon (KH) Lee
    • Brice Garnett
    • Max Greyserman
    • Sami Valimaki

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • TPC Scottsdale historically demands low scoring to contend. With three of the last four winners posting a winning score of -19 or better, players need to consistently convert birdie opportunities to keep pace.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Sam Burns
    • Max Greyserman
    • Luke Clanton
    • Joe Highsmith
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Harry Hall
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Michael Thorbjornsen
    • Jesper Svensson
    • Si Woo Kim

• Scrambling Gained
  • With firm conditions, tricky run-off areas, and strategically placed bunkers, players will inevitably find themselves in situations where they need to get up and down to save par.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Wyndham Clark
    • Nicolai Hojgaard
    • Brendon Todd
    • Brian Campbell
    • Justin Thomas
    • Bud Cauley
    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Eric Cole
    • Harry Hall
    • Kurt Kitayama

• Proximity Gained: 150-200 Yards
  • The WM Phoenix Open sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 150-200 yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.

• Leaders in Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Ben Kholes
  • Nicolas (Nico) Echavarria
  • Andrew Novak
  • Joohyung (Tom) Kim
  • Brice Garnett
  • Michael Kim
  • Patton Kizzire
  • Rikuya Hoshino
  • Max Homa
  • Scottie Scheffler
• Leaders in Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
  • Nicolai Hojgaard
  • Ben Martin
  • Max McGreevy
  • Henrik Norlander
  • Matt McCarty
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Nick Dunlap
  • Austin Eckroat
  • Antoine Rozner
  • Andrew Putnam

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at TPC Scottsdale has been a strong predictor of future performance in this tournament. Each of the past eight winners has played in this tournament before winning and has registered a top-10 finish or better.

• Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)):
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Justin Thomas
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Sahith Theegala
  • Nick Taylor
  • Sam Burns
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Billy Horschel
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Max Homa

The Field:

This year’s WM Phoenix Open will feature a total of 132 competitors.

Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

• Winner of Masters Tournament (five-year exemption)
• Winner of U.S. Open (five-year exemption)
• Winner of PGA Championship (five-year exemption)
• Winner of The Open Championship (five-year exemption)
• Winner of Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, the Memorial Tournament and The Genesis Invitational (three-year exemption)
• Winner of World Golf Championship event (three-year exemption)
• PGA TOUR tournament winner (two-year exemption)
• Career money exemption
• Sponsor exemption (DP World Tour, Korn Ferry Tour, Q-School)
• Sponsor exemption (PGA TOUR members not otherwise exempt)
• Sponsor exemption (unrestricted)
• PGA Section Champion
• Top 30 on prior season’s FedExCup points list
• Top 70 on prior season’s FedExCup points list
• Top 125 from prior season’s FedExCup Fall points list
• Major medical extension
• PGA TOUR University No. 1 from prior season
• Top 10 (not otherwise exempt) from prior year’s DP World Tour

Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

• Nick Taylor (2024), Scottie Scheffler (2023, 2022), Rickie Fowler (2019), Gary Woodland (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016)

Debutants in the Field (Event):

• Antoine Rozner, Brian Campbell, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Frankie Capan III, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jesper Svensson, Joe Highsmith, Jose Luis Ballester Barrio, Kristoffer Ventura, Luke Clanton, Mac Meissner, Matt McCarty, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Michael Thorbjornsen, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Patrick Fishburn, Paul Waring, Rafael Campos, Rasmus Hojgaard, Rico Hoey, Rikuya Hoshino, Steven Fisk, Taylor Dickson, Thriston Lawrence, Tim Widing

Sponsors Exemptions:

• Jose Luis Ballester Barrio – Unrestricted
• Frankie Capan III – DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
• Luke Clanton – Unrestricted
• Chez Reavie – Unrestricted
• Kevin Streelman – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt

Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

• Viktor Hovland – WD; Paul Waring – IN

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

• Will There Be a Playoff at the WM Phoenix Open? (Yes +350 / No -500)

A playoff has decided the winner of the WM Phoenix Open in three of the last five years.

Hole-in-One:

• Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the WM Phoenix Open? (Yes -115/ No -110)

Recent Horses for Courses (Event):

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2024: Nick Taylor (-21)
  • Price: 100-1

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
  • Price: 16-1

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16)
  • Price: 25-1

• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
  • Price: 50-1

• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • Price: 14-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2024: Nick Taylor
  • T71 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
  • MC – The American Express (PGA)
  • T7 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • T52 – The Sentry (PGA)
  • T21 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler
  • T11 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T9 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
  • T3 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler
  • T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • T25 – The American Express (PGA)
  • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T57 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T2 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)

• 2021: Brooks Koepka
  • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
  • MC – The American Express (PGA)
  • MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T7 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T5 – Vivint Houston Open (PGA)

• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • 3 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • T10 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • 2 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T7 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
  • T16 – TOUR Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Nick Taylor

2023: Scottie Scheffler

2022: Scottie Scheffler

2021: Brooks Koepka

2020: Webb Simpson

Picks:

Outrights

Sungjae Im (+2200) – FanDuel

Risk 0.37 Units to win 8.14 Units

Sam Burns (+2500) – FanDuel

Risk 0.32 Units to win 8.00 Units

Joohyung (Tom) Kim (+3300) – FanDuel

Risk 0.25 Units to win 8.25 Units

Kurt Kitayama (+6000) – FanDuel

Risk 0.14 Units to win 8.40 Units

Maverick McNealy (+6000) – FanDuel

Risk 0.14 Units to win 8.40 Units

Top 20 (Inc. Ties)

Sahith Theegala (+175) – BetMGM

Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.75 Units

Billy Horschel (+200) – BetMGM

Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.00 Units

Andrew Novak (+240) – BetMGM

Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.20 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.