When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have a pair for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been good. 69-63 record thus far. +11.2 Units. 4-1 on Free Late night plays.
My first play features the Washington Huskies visiting the Stanford Cardinal. (Stanford is favored by 2.5, O/U 47.5) Both teams come into this game at 3-4 having both had a very up and down topsy-turvy season.
Washington has been plagued by an absolutely inept offense. Currently they are averaging 22.1 points per game and that is inflated by a 52 point showing vs Arkansas State. They were held to 7 points in the opener against FCS Montana. The Arkansas State game is also the only game in which they have put up more than 327 Yards. They did get something going in the 2nd half against Arizona last week going on three long scoring drives and putting up over 225 Yards. That’s Arizona however, we will see what happens this week.
What Washington does have going for them is a very strong passing defense. They gave up over 300 passing yards to Cal, but seem to have righted the ship since then. UCLA, OSU and AZ all ran the ball well against Washington, but struggled to push the ball downfield through the air.
That could pose a problem for Stanford’s offense as they rank 121st rushing the ball at 94.9 yards per game. Their main focus however has been Tanner Mckee throwing the ball. He’s completing passes at a 64.7% clip with 14 TD to 3 INT, and has a nice 150.6 QBRat. Strength vs Strength when Stanford has the ball.
Stanford’s D has hardly been a thing of beauty, but I like this match-up for them. They’ve also been weakest against the run, and Washington isn’t much better of a rushing team at 119 yards per game. Wazzou hung some passing yards on them last week, but that has really been it.
For me the bottom line here is Washington is going to struggle moving the ball. The first half effort last week against Arizona is more of what the norm has been. If Stanford can convert on third downs I don’t see this one being as close as the spread. Only concern is so far 88% of the bets and 97% of the money is on Stanford and it’s only moved from 2 to 2.5 at most books. I am sticking to my guns however as my power rankings have this as Stanford -4.5 so I am happy to lay the 2.5 here. Stanford -2.5, 2.5 Units
The Second free play is San Diego State hosting Fresno State (SDSU -1, O/U 44.5) Fresno comes in at 6-2 and SDSU is a perfect 7-0. They also cashed my Over 6.5 Wins futures bet on them last week super early.
This battle will be for First place in the West Division of the Mountain West. It features one of the best passing attacks in the country with Jake Haener who is averaging 322.8 YPG with 22 TDs and 6 INT. Currently the rushing attack is 86th in the country, but they’ve thrown the ball so well they have not had to rely on it much. They did struggle against Wyoming throwing the ball, and Wyoming does have an elite secondary similar to what SDSU is going to show him. In that Wyoming game he only threw for 96 yards .
Fresno’s defense has also been solid. In the Wyoming game where the offense struggled they shutout the Cowboys and carried the team to victory. They have been particularly good against the run holding teams to 128.1 YPG and 3.7 YPA. This will be their toughest test vs the run since Oregon, and they did give up some yards to UNLV as well on the ground.
For SDSU on offense it is all about ball control and wearing down your opponent. They rush on 67.6% of their plays for over 192 YPG. They are also 4th in rushing explosiveness. SDSU was efficient last week in the air going 11 for 13 for 72 yards. If they get too far behind catching back up through the passing game could be an issue as consistency has not been there for them.
The SDSU defense is the biggest key to their success. They are top 10 vs both the run and the pass so far this year, albiet outside of Utah they haven’t really played any explosive offenses. This will be their biggest test of the year. With Fresno rarely rushing they will rely on what was the question mark at the start of the year their secondary. They’ve been up to the task so far allowing only 5.2 YPA passing. The front seven is the SDSU strength and with Fresno dropping back most of the time they will be pinning their ears back and getting after the QB. They are ranked 13th in the nation in sacks so Haener might not be as comfortable behind center as he would like.
I’ve been riding the SDSU defense most of the year. This team was my first futures bet for that reason, and I really think this unit is the best on the field, and will lead them to victory. I’ve got this at SDSU -5.5, so this is one of my biggest personal spread differences so far this year. SDSU -1, 3 Units
