These win totals apply only to the regular season. Last year, I managed to go 5-1 on my CFB season win total predictions.
*Kansas State OVER 5.5 Wins(-135)
–After winning outright on the road against Oklahoma as 28 point dogs last season, the stock of Kansas State football seemed to be on the rise. Unfortunately, a season-ending injury to starting QB Skylar Thompson threw a wrench in the Wildcats season, as K-State went on to lose their last 5 games of the season. However, Thompson(30 career starts) is healthy and back in the fold, and he’ll share the backfield with superstar RB Deuce Vaughn, who averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage per game as a true freshman. Considering the OL is expecting significant improvement this season, it isn’t hard to see why Vaughn is being pegged as one of the best backs in CFB. The one concern for K-State is whether or not they’ll be able to replace the production they lost on the defensive side of the ball. Some struggles in the front 7 could present issues early, but they can take relief in what should be one of the better secondaries in the conference. They could be at risk of dropping a non-conference game to either Nevada or Stanford, but I have them ranked comfortably ahead of Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor entering the season. Assuming they drop one of the aforementioned games, all we would need is for them to beat one of: West Virginia, TCU, or Texas. Chris Kleiman is a proven winner, having built up North Dakota State into a powerhouse at the FCS level. I’m willing to bet that Kleiman pushes the right buttons to get this team playing relevant games in the month of November. If that’s the case, then this bet will cash with ease.
*Louisville UNDER 6.5 Wins(-130)
–Scott Satterfield did about all he could to signal he wanted out of Louisville last season when his name was being floated around the South Carolina job opening. The fans certainly didn’t appreciate that, and I can’t imagine the players have much trust in Satterfield. Adding on to his list of problems, Satterfield now has to replace the production of his top 2 WR’s from a year ago. While QB Malik Cunningham is plenty capable, he’s struggled with turnovers in the past, even with NFL-caliber WR’s to work with. The Cardinals offensive line is filled with question marks entering the season, something you don’t want to hear if your skill positions aren’t ironed out and your QB struggles with turnovers. While their front 7 should be solid, the Louisville secondary could be in for a rocky campaign, as they must replace 3 starters from last year’s team. Considering they’ll face 4 teams who expect to beat teams mostly through the air(Ole Miss, UCF, Boston College, and Clemson), that could create some serious issues throughout the course of the season. From my estimation, Louisville has only 3 wins locked up with Eastern Kentucky, Duke, and Syracuse on their schedule. Aside from that, they won’t find an easy time winning any of those other 9 games. The ACC always has a ton or parity to start with, and many of Louisville’s opponents don’t have the added hurdle of abandonment from their head coach. If Louisville couldn’t piece together wins with the talent on last year’s roster, I have a hard time seeing them make a bowl game this go-round.
*Northwestern OVER 6.5 Wins(-115)
–The Wildcats made significant strides last season after a 3 win 2019 season, winning the Big 10 West and playing Ohio State tough in the Big 10 title. While QB Peyton Ramsay graduated, Pat Fitzgerald could have the most talented QB he’s ever coached leading the offense this season. Hunter Johnson has had quite the journey to this point; he was a widely heralded 5 star recruit who went to Clemson for a year(some guy named Lawrence wasn’t going to give up that job) before finding a landing spot at Northwestern. He is now entering his 5th college season as the undoubted QB1; at worst, I think he’ll be the replacement level QB Northwestern has grown accustomed to over the years. He will share the backfield with a steady RB tandem that found their groove towards the end of last season and has the luxury of playing behind one of the best OL’s in CFB. Even with a new defensive coordinator, this Wildcats defense expects to take on the personality of their head coach and be the identity of this team. Northwestern draws an easy non-conference schedule with Duke as their hardest draw, and they should be favorites in their first 6 games. While their schedule gets tougher in the back-half of the season, they close out with 2 easily winnable games against Purdue and Illinois. When this team squares off with Wisconsin in Week 11, I expect the result of that game to have major implications for the Big 10 West. I see Northwestern as an 8-4 football team entering this season with the potential of a double-digit win season if Hunter Johnson can live up to his potential.
*Baylor UNDER 5.5 Wins(-120)
–I’ve been fairly adamant about the fact that Baylor’s 2019 Sugar Bowl team probably should’ve been a 7 or 8 win football team. In other words, I look at that as a one-off year and not a sign of what’s to come. After Matt Rhule left for the NFL, they brought in Dave Aranda to keep the good times rolling. Not surprisingly, the Bears stumbled to a 2-7 campaign in 2020, and now, they are left without a reliable QB and will face depth issues at many key positions. Whether it be Gary Bohanon or Jacob Zeno that starts at QB, neither provides the level of consistency needed for this team to make a bowl game. I’m even more convicted to say that considering they will be working under 1st year OC Jeff Grimes. The defense has some experience to work with, but the talent is nowhere near where it was just 2 seasons ago. I truly think the Bears are on upset watch week 1 when they travel to San Marcos to take on Texas State, who’s led by offensive savant Jake Spavital. They’ll beat Kansas and Texas Southern, but when looking at the rest of the Big 12, I’m not sure they can find a way to win multiple games against the rest of the field. Baylor is a losing program historically, and I think they will continue to regress this season as much of the Big 12 looks to improve.
*Navy OVER 3.5 Wins(-120)
–Navy had a turbulent 3-7 2020 season, but considering they weren’t even tackling during training camp last year, it’s not hard to see why they were a step behind. With the COVID year past them and a normal offseason of practice, I expect a much more efficient Navy group this season. The triple-option creates a real challenge for the opposition, and that’s especially true in a conference like the American where defensive efficiency is not the strong suit. Ken Niumatalolo faced a similar situation in 2019 coming off a 3 win season; his Midshipmen responded with an 11 win season. All things considered, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Navy to see a 1 game improvement this season.
