Saturday Free Play – Jhony Be Bad

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Happy Saturday everyone. Got some great baseball action today on the docket and some pre-Kentucky night action at Churchill Downs. Also some big races overnight at Hong Kong Sha Tin if you’re into that 24 hours straight of being in action kinda thing. Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you are interested in any horse tips for tonight. Gonna preview some baseball this evening now though.

My analysis turns to Globe Lufe Stadium in Arlington, Texas today where the Rangers take on the New York Yankees  in AL action at 7:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Rangers -162, Yankees +142 and the Over/Under is sitting at 8.5/-110. As far as weather goes, the roof was closed last night, but it’s supposed to be 70 and sunny at game-time tonight with a moderate breeze blowing out to right field. I am guessing the roof will be open.

Well, the Yankees offense got a preview of what it’s like without Aaron Judge last night as they managed only five hits and two runs in 5-2 Loss. The results of the MRI on Judge’s hip haven’t yet been revealed, but they said they found something so I dont expect him back tonight. With Giancarlo Stanton also out the Yankees offense is a shell of it’s normal self. Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero just don’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers in the same way. That being said, both those guys have some pop in their bats and Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres are still in the lineup. The Rangers offense is also without a key cog as Corey Seager remains on the IL. Texas hasn’t missed a beat without him though as they are 4th in MLB in OPS since Seagar went down. Last night, even with Clarke Schmidt striking out 8 Rangers, they beat him around for 10 hits and 5 runs over his 5 innings.

Jhony Brito takes the mound for the Yankees. He hasn’t gone longer than 4.1 IP in his last 3 outings and on the year has a K/9 at 6.11 and a BB/9 at 5.09. That is not a recipe for success and it shows in his 6.11 ERA and 5.56 xFIP. Brito is a ground ball pitcher and his numbers would look even worse if he wasn’t generating them at nearly a 50% clip. He’s also currently rocking a 4.8% HR/FB ratio which is bound to regress. The only thing he really has going for him is this will be the first time everyone in the Rangers dugout will face him. Veteran Nathan Eovaldi is on the bump for Texas. He has been much better than his numbers suggest with a 5.20 ERA overshadowing a 3.24 xFIP. His K/9 is over 10 while his walks per nine sit at only 1.63. He’s had bad luck with a .413 BABIP against, but a lot of that has to do with his hard contact rate allowed being over 45%. He does have quite a bit of history with many of these Yankees hitters, and hasn’t had a ton of success. Anthony Rizzo is hitting .444 on his career off him with a pair of Home Runs in 20 plate appearances. DJ Lemahiue has also homered off him and is a career .333 hitter in 45 plate appearances.

I think the market thinks the sky is falling on the Yanks, but after Jacob Degrom left the game last night they scratched out some offense against Dane Dunning. They still have enough pop in the lineup to score some runs, and they know that they have to step up to fill the void. Eovaldi has solid metrics and should be due for positive overall regression for his ERA, but he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball yet either this year just like Brito. If there’s one thing that always happens in baseball it’s visits for pitchers from the Long Ball Regression Fairies. I think Brito is gonna get hammered and Eovaldi hasn’t been clean yet so the Yanks should be able to get some runs off him.

Gimme the Over 8.5 Runs for 1 Unit.

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I’ve been betting sports since my old man starting having me fill out his parlay cards from the local watering hole when I was younger. 15+ Years dedicated experience betting MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB, and Horse Racing. My specialty is MLB where long hours grinding in daily fantasy leagues and compiling information naturally translated into picking out value on lines for baseball. I also focus on the Pac-12 and Mountain West as my family goes to bed early, and I like having action late at night at my chilly home in Wisconsin from September-March. Since 2019, The Records are - MLB, 670-662-17 +33.9 Units and 1.8% ROI. Other record since 2019 College Basketball 567-531-16 NFL 131-104-2, CFB 223-233-6. I love sharing my insight on sports with everyone, find me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche and get all my premium picks here at TheOddsBreakers.com You can find my NCAA Basketball package now available for $400 for the entire season here. https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/

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