College Bowls December 26th – 28th Plays

December 26, 2019

1328

Dec. 26

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Miami -6 O/U 50
Independence Stadium
Shreveport, Louisiana
4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is more of a home game for Louisiana tech with a 1 hour drive from campus. They should be motivated still being that they are playing the Hurricanes. You would think Miami won’t be motivated here but they have been embarrassed too many times this year. LA tech will certainly be motivated and they had a great season but certainly an easier schedule ranking 141st on Sagarin while Miami’s ranked 64th. Miami has a decent defense and a net 1.1 yard per play while LA Tech was .85. My Power ratings have this game Miami -11.5 on a neutral field here. There are a few guys from Miami that will miss this game due to the NFL draft. Trevon Hill at edge rusher is the main one but Jahfari Harvey is a DE whome will get a chance to play in the Independence Bowl and still maintain his redshirt season. Look for some havoc created by this kid. I also think if Miami loses this bowl game, it will really affect their recruiting. When LA Tech stepped up in class they got beaten pretty badly. IF the Cane’s lose this game say bye bye to their future recuriting under Manny Diaz. Gotta go with the Canes on a short number.

Quick Lane Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan +11 O/U 48.5
Ford Field
Detroit
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is a home game for Eastern Michigan at 37 miles away but it is already factored into the number. Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to perform well when laying big chalk and my oh my did they have a bad finish getting shut out by Virginia Tech and losing to Boston College. They kind of deserve this spot playing in Detroit over Florida this time of year. I want to bet Eastern Michigan here but my biggest problem is that they are a net even in yards per play with that easy Mac schedule while Pitt is at least a positive .6. My power ratings have this at 11 exactly with home field for the Eagles

Lean Eastern Michigan +11

Dec. 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
North Carolina vs. Temple +4.5 O/U 53
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Annapolis, Maryland
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App |

This is more of a home game for Temple being only 124 miles away but I do expect a UNC turnout as well. This is one of them situations where one team has the better offense in North Carolina and one team has the better defense in Temple. UNC has a .2 yard per play advantage over the Owls and a better quarterback in Sam Howell but make no mistake, Anthony Russo can step up in big games like they have against Memphis. My Power ratings have UNC by 3.75 points here on a neutral field. I did take Temple early at +6 but now that this line has fallen to 4.5 I am considering a buy back just due to Rod Carey’s bowl record at 0-6 ATS. Mack Brown has gotten these North Carolina kids excited this year.

Lean UNC -4.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State vs. Wake Forest +3.5 O/U 50
Yankee Stadium
New York
3:20 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This is the bowl that you get when you are extremely disappointing compared with your preseason expectations. Wisconsin played Miami here last year so trust me on that. This line tells me one thing and one thing only. The Oddsmakers have no idea what is going to happen here. Michigan State is a defensive team who plays slow and Wake Forest is a fast paced high powered offense. Well, when I say high powered, I actually mean when they play teams that are not so good. 3 points is all that they could muster up vs Clemson and they ended up losing their last game at Syracuse. Both of these teams are barely positive in yards per play and if they didn’t have an easy non-conference, they would not have made bowl games. My power ratings have this game at 3 points but Michigan State should be able to put up a few points here. I lean to the under here but I am not going to make a play at this point.

Lean under 50

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M -7 O/U 54
NRG Stadium
Houston
6:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

No surprise to me that Texas A&M wasn’t going to get a home game here in Houston which is only 95 miles away. Over 500 miles to Stillwater is enough to decide to stay home with your 65 inch TV. Other than that, both of these coaches boast great bowl ATS records with Jimbo Fisher at 6-3 and Mike Gundy at 8-5. Texas A&M has been very dissapointing this season. They haven’t been able to come within even 2 scores of a top 25 matchup. My power ratings line up well with this spread being that I have A&M 4 points better than Okie State but I also do not think that A&M may be all that motivated here. Oklahoma State has a few decent wins vs TCU and Iowa State here and I think they have the firepower to keep up with the Aggies. In saying that, I think a look to the over might be even better. This game is being played in a retractable dome here that will guarantee good weather. Oklahoma State plays pretty fast and scores 33 points per game while A&M should be able to put up lots of points against this bad Cowboy defense. A&M averaged 30 playing a tough conference shedule of 5 top 10 teams.

Over 54 – 2 star Premium Shared

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
USC vs. Iowa -2 O/U 51.5
SDCCU Stadium
San Diego
8 p.m., Fox Sports 1 –

This is a home game for USC here but Iowa’s fan base travels well and especially during the winter. If I give USC a 1.5 home field advantage, it brings me right to the spread of -2. Iowa can be sneaky good at times and their quarterback Nate Stanley is a beast. This team can convert 4th and short like they are a rugby team. His size alone will give him a shot in the NFL. USC on the other hand has been really playing well down the stretch beating the crap out of UCLA and Cal while winning 5 of their last 6 games. I would like to take Iowa here and fade coach Helton but somehow USC’s quarterbacks have all played well and they can score some points. If Iowa gets jumped on from the beginning, they could have some issues catching up. I think Iowa should pound the ball here and they will have some trickery come into play later in this game.

Lean first half under 24.5 points

Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force vs. Washington State +3 O/U 68.5
Chase Field
Phoenix
10:15 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

So Mike Leach is 2-7 ATS in bowl games. Well woopty freaking do. Washington State had a decent year beating teams like Stanford and Oregon State but they also lost bad ones vs California and UCLA do to immense turnovers. It is true that this team plays very fast and puts up 39 points per game but when they pay good defenses, they seem to falter. They were able to only put up 13 vs Utah and Washington and 20 vs Cal. Airforce is a Mountain West team with a half way decent defense holding opponents to 19 points per game and 5.4 yards per play, but what really makes me look at the total here is the fact that Airforce plays a slower game. They ran the ball 686 times this year and only threw the ball 114. Giving Mike Leach 3 weeks to stop the triple option tells me that we might see some punts happen this game. I expect Air force to try and limit the possessions that Washington State has here making this a lower scoring game.

Under 68.5 – 3 star premium shared and Lean WASU +3

Dec. 28

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Iowa State +3.5 O/U 54
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
Noon, ABC/ESPN App |

Will someone sit out this game from Notre Dame? Nothing has been announced as of yet. Lots of people have been talking up Iowa State here. Matt Campbell this and Matt Campbell that. Well he is only 2-3 ATS in bowl games. Bryan Kelly isn’t that great either but at least he has played some of the toughest teams. Most power ratings have Notre Dame 7-10 points better than this team on a neutral field? Who is Iowa State’s best win this year? Maybe Texas or TCU but both games were at home? Notre Dame has beaten USC, Virginia, Navy and kept it close at Georgia. The Irish also win on the yards per play comparison. Gonna lay it with the Irish at anything below 6.

Notre Dame -3.5 – 3 star premium shared

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Penn State vs. Memphis -6.5 O/U 60.5
Arlington, Texas
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App |

I haven’t heard of any players sitting out this game for Penn State and that worries me a little bit. It doesn’t worry too much being that I grabbed Memphis +9.5 early. My power ratings have this a 5.5 spread so that side of the value is gone but a slight buyback on PSU may be possible. I am very intrigued by this matchup. James Franklin is 5-3 ATS in bowl games while Memphis will have Ryan Silverfield as interim because of Mike Norvell heading to Florida State. If you listened to me all year, I said that Penn State was a bit fraudulent. Penn State was outgained in 4 of their wins but a win is a win and they had a very hard schedule their last 6 games. Memphis is a positive 1.7 yards per play while Penn State sits at 1.4. The Tigers had the easier schedule but one could argue that it wasn’t much easier. Both teams play at an average pace but the total is high due to great offensive efficiency on really both sides. Even though this number is at 6.5, I still have a slight lean to Memphis but I won’t be making any more plays on that side without their coach.

Lean Memphis +6.5

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson -2 O/U 63
State Farm Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
4 or 8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

This spread is strange to me being all the talk I have heard about Ohio State being the best team all year. I think it may be because Ohio State has slipped when they faced a very hard last 3 games while Clemson faced nobody. This is also the reason that Clemson now has a net 3.5 yards per play and Ohio State has fallen to a net 3.0 yards per play. The strength of schedule obviously favors Ohio State but what we don’t know is how much more Clemson could have won by had they not taken their foot off the gas in the 4th quarters. I would bet either one of these teams at +3 or above but I doubt that we see that. Clemson has the experience in this spot and Ohio State has the added motivation of being the Dog. One weakness that Clemson does have is their special teams rankings 91st on the S&P while Ohio State’s special teams rank 5th. Clemson’s FG kicker is only at 62% this year and I can see this game coming down to that with Ohio state’s defense being so good in the red zone or in any zone for that fact. I think the smart play here will be the 1st half under but I don’t have a problem with Ohio State +110 on the ML.

1st half team under 31.5 – 2 star premium shared play

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma +13.5 O/U 75.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
4 or 8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |

I faded LSU 3 times this year that I can remember and I lost twice, only winning when they played Auburn. Look at this total. It is huge. There are a lot of problems that I have with this game. LSU is a force and they seem to keep getting better and better. They have the best Quarterback being that Joe Brady and Steve Enminger matched the perfect system to him bringing in the RPO play and more of a speed type offense. Joe also can run the ball which has been key. He makes the greatest decisions and deserves the credit of the Heisman trophy. My problem with this game is that Jalen Hurts has a ton of talent and we haven’t seen Oklahoma play as a dog all year long. We know that Jalen has a huge chip on his shoulder after losing his starting QB position as well as helping to win a game last year for Alabama when Tua was roughed up. Jalen Hurts just might play out of his mind this game and way past his normal levels of execution. The other problem is that even though LSU has had the way harder schedule and has proved much much more but Oklahoma still has a slight edge in net yards per play at .1 better than LSU. I can’t get the comeback that Oklahoma had to cover the spread against Alabama last year out of my head. I also remember that when LSU faced running QBs like Bo Nix and Sam Ellinger, they failed to cover the spread. Lastly, Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley has been here before recently and LSU and their fantastic coaching staff hasn’t. Oklahoma just lost their edge best edge rusher and 2nd string running back to suspension which is concerning but If I was to bet this side, it wouldn’t be because of their defense. I will probably put some money up on Oklahoma and lose one more time here but I will wait and see if a 14.5 pops first.

Lean Oklahoma +13.5