Tennessee vs New England -4.5 O/U 43.5
Ever hear of the term buy low sell high? Well I think stock market basic philosophy very much applies to this handicap. Who would have thought that New England would be priced at just 1.5 points better than Tennessee on a neutral field earlier this year. The Patriots may have coasted at the end of their season but they still have an elite defense and a great home field advantage. They sometimes treat the regular season as pre-season. The Titans on the other hand has impressed with the resurgence of Ryan Tannahill who is so hot right now but if you look at the last 3 games, they played the Texans third string once and lost by 10 to the Saints and 3 at home to the Texans. This is still a Belichick and Brady era and there is no way in hell that I am going to fade them the fist game in the playoffs at home. My power ratings have this a 6.5 point spread and I think the Patriots will be healthier next week. Their loss to the motivated dolphins and the Titans win against Houston’s 3rd string has affected this line. Taking the Value with the Pats.
New England -4.5 – 2 star premium shared
Minnesota vs New Orleans -8 O/U 49
There is an obvious issue with the line and total here. Most power ratings have this a 5 or 6 point spread so the question is how the heck is this line 8? Well the reason it is at 8 is the confidence that oddsmakers have in Kirk Cousins. Everyone knows that when Cousins plays big game that he tends to choke. This guy is 0-9 in Monday night football and will now once again have a stand alone nationally televised game. Cousins was so bad the other week vs the packers that I think half of the college QBs out there would have done better. Now he took a week off and has to go into New Orleans where they still are thinking revenge from what happened in the Minnesota Miracle if we are not counting last years referee debacle? I have to say that I do agree with the Cousins adjustment in the line here but I think what people don’t see is the total. Minnesota has the 7th ranked defense in the League and they will show up this game but New Orleans ain’t no slouch either and teams usually don’t score against them until garbage time. This is why I think this under is essentially a free roll. If Cousins is his bad self then this total is way too high and the Saints run the clock out in the 4th. If Cousin’s does well for some reason and covers this spread then the total is still a little high. New Orleans ranks second to last in seconds per play and Minnesota isn’t that fast either at about average. I am going to take the under and this might be the best play of the weekend!
Under 49 – 3 star premium shared
