Arizona vs UCLA -9.5 O/U 68
Arizona is on the second road game here after being manhandled by a young Washington Husky’s team. This play for me is all about perception. People are thinking about how Arizona almost beat USC and that supposedly is supposed to make them good. Looking at the metrics the last few games, Arizona averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and they give up 6.64. That is a -1.14 after 2 games. Their QB play has been pretty good but they can not run the ball well at all. UCLA’s 1-2 record doesn’t really paint the whole picture. At Colorado they turned the ball over a lot and still almost won the game, and at Oregon last week they out-gained the Ducks by 40 yards and barely lost the game. When they played a home game, they destroyed Cal by 24 points. UCLA averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and only gives up 5.15 on defense. That is a +.95 and putting it with Arizona, it is a +2.1 net yard per play advantage. UCLA’s quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson didn’t get to play for covid protocol last week but I think he is back this weekend vs the Cats. Take UCLA and they should win in a blow out.
UCLA -8.5 – 3 star premium shared play
Boston College -1.5 O/U 55.5
Louisville is finally coming off of a win against a terrible Syracuse team. Well as Chris Farley would say, well La di fricking da! The Cardinal would be a mediocre team if they wouln’t turn the ball over so much. The Cardinal actually has a decent +.8 yards per play but they have a league worst -12 turnover margin. That is almost 2 turnover per game in the negative. Boston College on the other hand has a better record than Louisville with 5 wins and 4 losses but a worse yards per play at -.6 The thing that sticks out the most for me here is strength of schedule. Boston college has faced 3 top 25 teams in Clemson, Notre Dame and North Carolina. Louisville has only faced 2 top 25 teams in Notre Dame and Miami early this year and their best win is against Florida State believe it or not. Boston College is now well rested and coming off the bye while Louisville might be a little full of themselves after beating a horrible Syracuse team. Gonna take the Eagles here to win with the short spread.
Boston College -1.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Pittsburgh vs Clemson -24 O/U 54.5
Well we all know that Dabo Sweeny isn’t getting any style points this week accusing Florida State of purposely avoiding them after their Covid issues. I think its obvious that Dabo is a bit bitter about having to bench Trevor Lawrence when he really wasn’t showing sickness the last few games. Dabo needs to understand that even though he doesn’t agree with the rules, all teams have to follow it this year until better decisions are made. I personally do not care how much of a baby Dabo is this week. I only care about the fact that Clemson think’s that they need style points now with their loss to Notre Dame and Pitt is the next victim. Now Pitt is getting a little bit of respect after beating Virginia Tech last week by double digits but what I saw was a Hokies team that has lost motivation after that Liberty loss. Pittsburgh is just a middle of the road ACC team averaging just +.6 yards per play and when they step up in class here they will once again be in some serious trouble like they showed against Notre Dame. Clemson is the most complete team in all of college football. Clemson’s average margin of victory is 26 points and that is counting the 2 bad games that they had without Trevor. My power ratings have Clemson winning by about 24 but I think it will be an embarrassment to Dabo after all that shit that he talked this week to not blow this team out. Trevor is also fighting for Heisman. Take Clem and don’t sweat it.
Clemson -24 – 2 star premium shared play
