December 24th
Hawaii vs Houston -13 O/U 59.5
Hawaii hired a great coach in Todd Graham this year. This team has done very well compared to their expectations beating teams like Nevada and Fresno State. Not a lot has changed with this Hawaii team as they still play fast at 76 plays per game and average a modest 26 points per game. Houston on the other hand started out with promise and failed to deliver. They are dead even in points per game at 32 on offense and Defense and the same with yards per play at 5.9. Houston also plays at an above average pace of play under Dana Holgorsen at 75 plays per game and they are also pretty turnover prone at -1 per game which gives other teams good field position. My power ratings have this about a -10 point favorite for Houston but I am more interested in the over. I think both teams can score against each defense. Hawaii also gives up 5.9 yards per play and 29 points per game vs an easy schedule. Taking the over.
Over 59.5 – 2 star premium shared play
December 25th – Christmas Day
The Camellia Bowl
Buffalo vs Marshall -3 O/U 53.5
This game should be called the disappointment bowl. Both of these teams lost their conference championship and both conferences kinda suck at playing football. Marshall is a nice 1.6 yards per play and Buffalo is a 2.5 yards per play. My power ratings has this game Buffalo by only .5 points but I can’t bet Marshall due to Grant Wells having the Yips at quarterback. Wells didn’t even complete a first half pass against UAB except to the defense. He lost confidence and its hard to bet on that. I really want to bet Buffalo here but the coach for Marshall Doc Holiday is 6-1 ATS in bowl games. Gonna watch this one and lean under.
Lean under 53.5
December 26th
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
South Carolina vs UAB -6 O/U 53
The fact that a 2 win team as bad as South Carolina is actually in a bowl game over a team like Army is really sad. UAB is a much more respectable on the other hand is a very solid team who won their conference and is a pretty large favorite over someone on the SEC. Blazers coach Bill Clark should be getting a power 5 job soon enough. Since Muschamp was fired, this team slid farther and farther downhill. In saying all of this, this team was at least in their game vs Ole Miss and won against Auburn. I highly question the motivation for them and don’t think that they care about being embarrassed. On the other hand, the motivation is factored into the line. I have UAB -4 and am wondering where this line will go.
Lean UAB -6
Cure Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs Liberty +7 O/U 59
- Both teams have been on a tear and Liberty only as 1 loss from a power 5 team by 1 point.
- Starting out with the Power ratings, I have Coastal Carolina 3.5 points better than Liberty. This makes the spread to me a bit high at 6.5
- Schedules. Sagarin has Liberty at 140th in the nation with Coastal at 108th but I would argue that maybe Liberty has had just as hard of a path having to battle 3 ACC teams.
- Passing favors Coastal Carolina some
- On the Ground Liberty has the edge at 5.7 yards per rush to CC’s 5.0.
- Total yards per play has Liberty a +1.7 and Coastal a +1.4 but we must remember that Liberty fed off of a lot of horrible teams with 2 FCS teams and Lousiana Monroe and FIU.
- Coastal got screwed not getting a New Years 6 or at last a better bowl and I think they have questionable motivation here.
- I think there are too many points here and I like Liberty in this spot for sure.
Liberty +7 – 3 star premium and sprinkle
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Louisiana vs UTSA +13.5 O/U 57.5 –
This game is interesting because it is hard to gauge Louisiana’s motivation after not getting to play their conference championship and awarded the lovely status of “co-champions.” I would like to think that they will try and I am pretty sure that UTSA will be motivated here. The Roadrunners had some ups and downs this year getting past injuries but second string quarterback Frank Harris finally figured it out. UTSA is great running the ball at 5.23 yards per rush while Louisiana can do both very well. Louisiana has had the harder schedule and has a much better +1.6 yards per play to +.2 for UTSA. My power ratings has this game almost on the spread due to Louisiana’s stiff defense that only allows 20 points per game. I think if UTSA has a chance it will have to be on the ground.
Lean UTSA +13.5 and Lean under 57.5
Lending Tree Bowl
Western Kentucky vs Georgia State -4.5 O/U 51.5 –
During their last 2 games, Western Kentucky finally scored over 35 points in both of them when all year they could barley sometimes get to 20. Not sure if that is a fluke because they played Charlotte and FIU or if they really got better. Georgia State on the other hand is a very good Sun Belt team who beat Georgia Southern and Kept up with Louisiana and Appalachian State. Both of these teams are very good against the run allowing 4.2 or less yards per rush but Georgia State has the better offense. The Panthers has an even yards per play to the Hilltopper’s -.4 My power ratings have Georgia State -3.5 so no play for me but I do lean under.
Lean under 51.5
