The last meeting between the Packers and Bucs came in Week 6 of the regular season, and it wasn’t much of a contest. The Packers scored the first 10 points and then never scored again, watching helplessly as Tampa Bay scored 28 straight in the 2nd quarter and ended up winning 38-10. Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the year, throwing for a 45% completion percentage, 0 TDs and 2 INTs. To make matters worse, the Packers allowed 5 sacks, 20% of what they allowed all year against their star QB (20). That’s a wild stat!
But this isn’t Week 6, the Packers are at Lambeau with perhaps the best home-field advantage in the NFL, and their offense is absolutely humming. Last week is a great example of that. Sure, Aaron Donald was limited, but the Packers offensive line had their way with the Rams’ defensive front. They easily could’ve scored 40+. That’s been the story of the Packers all year– go up early, play ball control with the run game, and make plays to stay ahead. They did that to perfection once again.
Tampa Bay has the league’s best running defense (and a legit #2 rank in DVOA), but I trust that Matt LaFleur can scheme his way through that on Sunday. The Rams ran the ball well with a like-minded coach.
I think the more significant game-script to watch for is when Tampa Bay has the ball. Ronald Jones II was a problem in Week 6, running for 113 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and 2 TDs. And that was before Tampa had Leonard Fournette. Jones II and Fournette both looked very healthy last week, running for 63 and 62 yards and splitting carries evenly (Fournette had 17, Jones II had 13). Green Bay ranks #3 in overall DVOA, but it’s hokey. They haven’t faced great offenses and they’ve played ahead in virtually every game. If Tampa Bay can have another good showing on the ground, it’ll open things up for Brady and his talented receivers. That’s a dangerous combination.
In the end, this game will come down to, you guessed it, the performance of two star quarterbacks. Aaron is having an extraordinary year, but Brady isn’t that far behind (4,633 yards, 40 TDs, 12 INTs). There’s so many competing angles for this game, but I just can’t see Aaron Rodgers blowing a chance to get to the big dance, in front of his rowdy fans, in arguably his greatest pro season yet. I think that’s even more true since he had his worst performance (and ONLY bad performance of the year) against the Bucs.
We’ll steer clear of the total since these teams are so evenly matched. What I will do, however, is middle this bet in an effort to win on both ends. Some of the sharper minds in the industry like the Tampa Bay side, but I think Green Bay gets the W.
Free Pick: Packers win (-175), 3 units
Free Pick: Bucs +3.5 (-120), 2 units
Key Trend: Teams in the conference championship with lower red zone success are 7-14 ATS, or 33%. The Packers are #1, Bucs are #7, favoring the Pack. Credit- Ralph Michaels
