Penn State vs Michigan State -2.5 O/U 143.5
Just like the stock market, this game is a buy low sell high opportunity. Was Michigan State at one point in the Big 10 over-rated? Yes. Same with Penn State being under-rated. Now that there has been a correction, it’s time to buy Tom Izzo. After Sparty’s Covid pause, they lost one of their best down low defenders and rebounders in Gabe Brown. Gabe came back last game vs Nebrasketball and he should be healthy enough to help defend John Harrar down low. From a pure match-up perspective, Penn State is poor at guarding the 2 point shot ranking 320th in College Basketball allowing 55.5%. Michigan State should be able to capitalize down low. The biggest thing for me for this game is that Penn State hasn’t won a road game in Big 10 play and I don’t think that this is the spot that they can do it. Sparty is desperate to get back into Big 10 contention. Take Sparty with the low number.
Michigan State -2.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
James Madison vs Elon +5.5 O/U 143
Let’s face it, Elon isn’t a good team at all both on offense or defense and it’s hard to bet on them but one thing that we know is that they are desperate for a win in the Colonial and they finally getting a home game since their last one on December 19th. James Madison is a middle of the road team who plays fast with a tempo of 71.3 rankin 43rd in the NCAA. The thing for me for this handicap is that Elon actually plays a lot faster than their tempo shows. Elon’s adjusted tempo is at 67.3 ranking 237th in the league but their seconds per possession is much higher at 16.5 ranking 97th in the league. Due to this disparity, and the fact that the Phoenix only put up 57 on the road vs the Dukes in their last game, I think that there is some value on the over here. Take the over.
Over 143 – 2 star premium shared
