This is part I of my breakdown of Saturday’s East Bracket games! Check out Part II here. Happy Madness, everyone!
Georgetown +6.5 (-110), 2 units: Georgetown and Colorado travel to Indianapolis Saturday to faceoff in the first East Region game in the NCAA Tournament. This is an interesting showdown for several reasons. I’ve followed the Hoyas closer than most teams at the end of the regular season and boy was it a treat. The big boys from DC play hard for coach Patrick Ewing, though it’s unsurprising to see the NBA Hall of Famer thriving as the Hoyas’ leader. Ewing has the same swagger and moxie that he did on the hardwood, but you can tell he’s a “player’s coach” too. His front court studs exude the same tenacity as he did many moons ago for the same team. Georgetown’s guards and bigs can rebound, defend, and routinely get to the foul line, an area where they own one of the best shooting percentages in the nation. Finishing their season winning 6 of their last 8 games, including quality wins against Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Xavier, the Hoyas were crowned the Big East champions and they’re hardly a team anyone wants to face in the first round. Colorado has no choice, but the Buffaloes are favored in this contest for a reason. Haslametrics rates Colorado as #13 overall in the nation. They run a highly efficient offense and aggressive defense while operating at a molasses-like tempo that frustrates most of their opponents. Ranking 4th overall in the nation in free throw percentage, they, like the Hoyas, also tend to land behind the charity stripe in an effort to outlast their foes. My only issue is the conference they play for. Sure, Colorado thrived among conference opponents, winning 14 of their 20 Pac-12 games. They also very nearly won the conference title. But I can’t say I was blown away by their non-conference play. They beat up on lowly teams to start the season, a stretch of games where their opponents ranked 180th, and in their one game against a formidable opponent in Tennessee they were soundly beaten. After seeing the Volunteers take a big L to Oregon State in the first round Friday, that loss looks even worse. The Big East isn’t what it used to be either, but I’ll take a motivated, humming, Ewing-led Georgetown squad laying points any day against a Pac 12 elite.
Florida State -10.5 (-110), 1 unit: Alright, time to wake up Seminoles. Florida State takes on UNC Greensboro in the first round of madness and I think they’ll outclass the Spartans early in this one. Look at a first half bet, too. Here’s why: Florida State has been one of the more frustrating teams to bet this year (trust me, I know). Bewildering losses to teams like Notre Dame and UCF and twice to Georgia Tech had a lot of us scratching our heads. THIS is the team that so many think can get into the Final 4? Well, yes. Florida State has their flaws. They turn the ball over too much and they’re not great away from home (unfortunately they’ll be away from home for the entire tournament, in case you’re unaware). According to Haslametrics, Florida State is ranked in the top-25 in three of our four major field goal categories. They’re also incredibly effective at second-chance scoring opportunities via offensive rebounds. And regardless of their up and down play, they’re clearly one of the most talented teams in the country. Stacked with bigs and precision shooters, they’ll be too much for most teams in the tournament. UNC Greensboro is a formidable opponent in the Southern Conference, but they’ve only faced one team who made it to the postseason. Florida State has faced 9. I’m worried about the Spartans defense in this one. Ranked #66 overall on Haslametrics, they do a few things well. They’re aggressive and try to force turnovers, often playing a full or half-court press. But if that’s the strength they depend on, it won’t phase the Seminoles. Florida State is one of only four teams that presses harder than UNCG. They’re also ranked in the 88th percentile (according to Synergy) in transition defense. They’re also (also) shooting 39% from beyond the arc this year, which is top 10 in the nation. I’m happy for the Spartans that they’re in the tournament; I’m not happy for them in this matchup. The Seminoles should overwhelm the lesser foe and march on to round 2.
St. Bonaventure/LSU under 144.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bonnies may have one of the best names in the nation, I’ll give em that, but I’m not into it enough to bet on them Saturday. I also haven’t fallen in love with LSU. To me the best bet is an under-play. This line is set at -1.5 in LSU’s favor, which is virtually a pick-em, yet the total is set at a line more akin to what an SEC game features– aka a ton of offense. That feels off to me. Ranked 11th overall in adjusted defense on Haslametrics, the Bonnies are #1 in the country in field goal percentage allowed. They’re also top 10 in a host of other defensive categories like mid-range FG percentage and close proximity shot defense. And I know what you’re thinking- Who cares Chris?! St. Bonaventure plays in the Atlantic 10 Conference where the best team they’ve beaten is VCU. LSU will overwhelm the Bonnies with their electric offense, Chris. Don’t be an idiot, Chris. Chris! Okay, you may be right. But how impressed are you by the SEC? Sure, Alabama and Florida and Arkansas have had some impressive runs and there’s a ton of scoring down south, but I think the Bonnies might be able to hang. St. Bonaventure knows that in order to rival the prolific offense that LSU relies on, the Bonnies need to slow down the game’s pace. St. Bonaventure’s runs at a tempo that’s 319th in the country; in other words, one of the slowest. And I like this angle even more because, while LSU is ranked 11th in adjusted offense on Haslametrics, they’re a below-average 126th in adjusted defense. The Bonnies should be able to control the game when they’re on offense with calculated, assist-driven basketball. At 32nd on Haslametrics in adjusted offense, they’re no slouches in that area either. I can’t pick LSU because they’re too volatile and their defense isn’t up to par. I can’t pick the Bonnies because I don’t trust an Atlantic-10 team against a superb offense for 40 minutes. But I can bet the under here, and I like it.
Lean, Michigan -25.5 (-110): This is probably the least-interesting game I’ll cover in the first round of this bracket, so just a lean here for me. And forgive me but, it’s hard to invest too much time into this game– there’s not too much mystery here. March hasn’t been too kind to the Wolverines, but things may take a turn now that we’re into the madness. Regardless of any hot take or sharp angle, it’s not debatable that Michigan is one of the best teams in the country. They’re the elite of the most elite conference and they’ve been as consistently dominant as any team, even if their in-state foe handed them a rare loss and even though Illinois and Ohio State bested them at the end of the year. If anything, that could work wonders for the Wolverines. A team like Gonzaga has a ton of pressure to win it all. They’re undefeated and virtually untouched entering the tournament. The Wolverines had a few down moments at the end of the regular season but they got that out of the way. In a college basketball world with COVID and now playing inside the Indianapolis bubble, it feels like getting through some adversity is always a good thing. In short, I expect Michigan to fire on all cylinders and have their way with Texas Southern. The Texas Southern Tigers finagled their way into bracketology with a nice win over Mount St. Mary’s in the First Four. They’re already winners. Unfortunately, the Tigers only have one win, ONE, against a team in KenPom’s top 220. Yowza. Credit to SportsBettingDime for that factoid. Although they play at a lightning pace, they’re not efficient on either end of the floor, ranking 268th on offense and 230th on defense according to Haslametrics. Things don’t look good for the Tigers here. And a fast-paced team only plays into the hands of an elite team like Michigan, whose talent and discipline will force the Tigers into mistakes early and often. Don’t bet the Texas Southern side but if you feel intrigued, look at Michigan and swallow the points.
