Oregon State vs Loyola -7.5 O/U 125.5
How about the Pack 12 this year!? I actually think that the Big 12, Pac 12, Big 10 and SEC are all close to the same strength with the Big East right there as well. This is going to be a very interesting game because you have two schools facing off that nobody would have thought would be in the sweet 13 a week ago when looking at the brackets. I think the one that is more understandable here is Loyola being that they have at least been ranked in the top 12 on Kenpom for a month or longer. Oregon State has been playing out of their minds lately and if you look at the trend line, it shows them skyrocketing ever since that loss to Oregon 3 weeks ago or so. It’s hard to believe that this Beavers team is the same team that lost to Portland this year as well as both Arizona schools back to back in February. In saying this, I think that the team that has the biggest chance for regression has to be the Beavers. In their last 2 games, Tennessee shot 33% and Oklahoma State shot 27%. Loyola is trustable to me to play extremely well and Oregon State really isn’t. I have this game Loyola 65-58 from a pure numbers standpoint. I think Loyola wins by between 3 and 15 points.
Lean Loyola -6.5 and lean under 125.5
Villanova vs Baylor -7.5 O/U 142
I think when you look at this game, you have to think about what these teams are right now. Baylor is playing some great basketball but I also must say that Wisconsin had their chances to score, but instead, missed way too many 3 pointers and lost the turnover margin 14-4. I think we all know who and what Baylor is. We also have a sample size on who they blew away their Big 12 competition and beat Illinois by 13 points in the non-conference. Villanova has been playing some great ball themselves but they still put up some stinkers this year vs teams they should have blown out. Now we still have to remember that Collin Gillispie isn’t playing who was their best player and heart and soul to this team. Villanova had an easy run to the sweet 16 having to face number 97 Winthrop and number 71 North Texas who couldn’t hit sand playing spiking a volleyball on the beach. Villanova is the best team in turnovers at 13.2% of possessions but Ball hocking Baylor ranks 3rd in forcing turnovers at 24.7% of possessions. Baylor is also the better shooting team and rebounding team. I have Baylor winning 79-70 but I certainly like the total more than the side!
Over 142 – 3 stars
