A nice plus money win with the Orioles gives us an overall winning day in MLB Monday. The Brewers had the bases loaded but couldn’t take advantage in the 9th, so Philly snuck away with a win and prevented our perfect day. Onto Tuesday:
Dodgers/Cubs Game 1 over 3.5 in first 5 innings (-110), 1.1 units: The wind is a rare calm in Chicago today, with mild temperatures, an overcast sky, and high humidity grazing over the Midwest. Is Clayton Kershaw (2.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 38.2 innings) still one of the best in baseball? Oh yes. Do we expect some positive regression from Kyle Hendricks (7.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP over 22.2 innings) after 2 bad showings against the Braves? Yes indeed. But with the weather where it needs to be, a low 5 inning total and two teams that are trending upwards at bat, I’ll take a shot on the first 5 over. After all, for all of the Cubs’ woes on offense, they’re now a top 10 team in slugging percentage, RBIs per game, and homeruns per game. And we all know what LAD can do behind their bats when they find a rhythm. Let it fly, boys!
Rockies win game 1 (no line yet), 1.5 units: The Giants and Rockies now have a doubleheader after yesterday’s cancelled game but our handicapping hasn’t changed. Just like I stated in my MLB article yesterday, the Rockies are a different team at home. Scoring 89 points over 15 games, good for 5.9 runs per game at Coors, Colorado must be anticipating this series against a Giants unit that dominated them at Oracle Park. As you’re surely aware, the Giants almost solely depend on excellent pitching to earn their victories. Although that’s obviously a solid philosophy in pro-baseball, it’s not as effective at Coors Field. The Giants have, to put it lightly, had their struggles swinging the bat. San Francisco’s 28 year old starter Alex Wood (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) has played well thus far in just 18 innings, but the Rockies give us inherent opportunity today as the grossly under-valued dog with a considerably more capable offense at home. The humidity is hitting 95% and it’s a mild day in Denver. I’ll take another shot at Colorado in game 1.
Astros win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Uh, why are the Yankees favored here? Because they beat up on the lowly Tigers at home? Allow me an uninspired 2-3 slow claps but don’t color me impressed. Zack Greinke (3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 36.2 innings) is obviously beyond his prime. The “designated ace” for the Houston Astros has a devolving velocity and shaky fastball command, but at 37 Greinke knows how to manage contact better than most. He’s also aware that his homerun allowance, good for 1.23 HR/9 innings thus far, needs to decrease if he’s going to best HR-dependent teams like the Yankees. Greinke hasn’t fared well against NYY over his long career, but I think it’s fair to say that this Yankees unit is a little less intimidating. New York found their bats recently against Detroit and Baltimore, but isn’t that what we should expect? Domingo German (4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 20 innings) gets the call for the pinstripes today and he looked his best in his last start against Baltimore, allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs over 7 innings. Like Greinke (but worse), German has struggled with allowing homeruns, posting a 1.80 HR/9 innings average in 2021. Both of these ballclubs are on their own surges– Houston has won 5 of their last 7 while the Yankees have won 5 of their last 6. Each have won 8 of their last 11 games. The Yankees have a small edge in homeruns overall but Houston is better than them in virtually every offensive category, not to mention I’d much rather have a dependable Houston bullpen as backup support. Behind Greinke and at even money, I have to take the Astros.
Braves win (-136), 2 units and Lean, Game over 9 (even): I’m not sure what’s going on in Braves country but it hasn’t looked pretty over the past week. Atlanta has no lack of offensive prowess behind Acuna Jr., and now Marcell Ozuna has come alive too with 5 RBIs in his last 5 games. All that is well and good but with Fried and Soroka still injured, Atlanta has to find more help at the mound. Huascar Ynao (2.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 27.1 innings) is at least a good temporary answer. The 22 year old Dominican pitcher looked very confident in his last 2 outings, shutting out the Cubs and only allowing 2 runs in 6 innings against Arizona. That’s the kind of edge he’ll have to bring today against a Nationals lineup that’s in a real groove. I trust him more than Joe Ross (4.64 ERA over 21.1 innings). Ross’ only bad game was against St. Louis, where he got blasted with 4 homeruns and permitted 10 total points. I’m fading him more because of recent history. Over 29.2 career innings against Atlanta, Ross owns an atrocious 6.98 ERA. The Braves are in serious need of positive regression and this feels like the spot to get it. Thunderstorms may delay or suspend this game, but it’ll be warm and humid today at Nationals Park so I expect some fireworks either way– though the total is just a lean out of respect for Ynao.
Red Sox -1.5 (+105), 1.4 units: The Tigers have to be a bit defeated after allowing the Yankees to gain a whole new perspective about themselves in their 3-game series. You hate to see that. Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 25.2 innings) has looked really solid all year and the Red Sox are in need of some redemption too, dropping 3 of their last 4 games to the volatile Texas Rangers. That was a head-scratcher. This is a nice get-right spot at Fenway for the Red Sox to resurrect some defense and continue their exceptional performance at the plate. Boston still owns the best ERA in the majors. I expect a Red Sox win by some margin today.
Orioles -1.5 (+170), 1 unit and Game over 8.5 (-110), 1.1 units: This is a pure momentum play on Baltimore. The Orioles are feeling themselves and Seattle doesn’t have the pitchers nor the bullpen to scare me away from taking shots on plus money with the underdogs. Baltimore has won 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve averaging a solid 5 runs per game during that span. I’ll ride the O-train until I can’t anymore. I’ll add the over play since I trust in Baltimore’s bats and since Jorge Lopez (BAL- 7.48 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over 21.2 innings) hasn’t exactly been stellar this year.
