Happy Cinco de Mayo! Baseball can be a frustrating sport to bet on– I was winning in so many bets, only to fall below .500 on the day Tuesday, but remember– this is a LONG term game. Bet with the right mentality and angles and you will win in the long-run, period. Carrying that philosophy with us, let’s move onto our picks today:
White Sox win (+105), 1 unit: Those White Sox bats were hot last night. Behind a magnificent game from Dylan Cease, Chicago continues to dominate series against the Reds, blowing them out 9-0 last night at Great American Ballpark. The White Sox have one of the best and most consistent offenses in MLB and they’ll hope to continue that in the early slot today. Dallas Keuchel (4.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 31 innings) is sent to the mound Wednesday for CHW and although he hasn’t looked great, I think he’s due for some positive regression. The 33 year old looked in his prime last year. Plus, how could you not be confident with the hit-support you’re getting in between innings? Sonny Gray (5.93 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over 13.2 innings) still has really solid velocity but he’s allowing way too much contact in the early going. Against these bats, I’d rather trust the plus money White Sox, who should probably be favored, to keep delivering points. I also lean to the over (8.5, even) in this one.
Rockies -1.5 (+170), 1 unit: There’s too much value on the Rockies side so I’m going to keep hitting it. The Giants roll out starter Logan Webb (4.13 ERA, 3.88 FIP over 28.1 innings) today, who’s looked really good in spurts and really vulnerable in other spots. I’m betting on him looking more vulnerable at Denver. Colorado will send out Jon Gray (3.15 ERA, 3.72 FIP over 34.1 innings), who like his opponent has been volatile so far this season. He’ll look to avenge a bad showing in his last start against Arizona, where he allowed 9 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. Colorado came alive in game 2 yesterday and they’re a dangerous scoring team at home, as I’ve alluded to in previous articles this week. It’s also likely that the Rockies are more motivated to win this series since they’ve been owned in recent history against their NL West foe. These two ballclubs won’t see each other again for 3 months so it’s time to make a statement, which is something that Colorado probably relates to on a more visceral level. The Rockies winning by margin is never a crazy thought at Coors and I’ll hammer it again.
Orioles win (even), 1.5 units: This is a pretty simple handicap. John Means (1.70 ERA, 0.84 WHIP over 37 innings) has been excellent so far for Baltimore. He’s being utilized a ton but he’s delivered, showing command, endurance, and consistently high velocity (92.7 on his fastball). He also boasts a 100% left on base percentage in 2021. A sample size of 37 innings is more than enough to be impressed by those numbers. Today he’ll rival Seattle’s starter Yusei Kikuchi (4.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 30.2 innings). Kikuchi was great in his most recent outing, allowing only 1 hit over 7 innings against an exceptional Astros offense, holding them scoreless. Good for him, but that won’t last. Kikuchi’s big arm is impressive but recent history shows us that eventually he’ll lack the command to sustain exceptional performances like the one we saw against Houston. The 29 year old leftie allows too much hard contact and way too many homeruns (1.47/9 innings in 2021), and that’s good news for Baltimore. The Orioles have thrived against lefties, averaging more hits, more homeruns, and considerably more RBIs per at bat against left-handers. Their batting average is also a stellar .271 against south-paws. The Mariners have found ways to win more games against Baltimore so far this season, but I expect the Orioles and their aggressive bats to edge out the home team with Means on the mound. It’s an opportunity the O’s need to take advantage of.
Braves win (-135), 1.5 units: This is a bet on Max Fried. According to many reports, Fried is in a much better place after injuring his hip at the start of the season. His numbers are obviously abysmal so far- 11.45 ERA, 2.55 WHIP over 11 innings- but the 27 year old is too young and too talented for that to last. We saw how elite his command can be (he had a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts last season), and he seems very confident coming off the break, saying, “I wasn’t as crisp in my delivery. I just wasn’t as timed up. I felt like I was really late and falling forward, wasn’t really driving the baseball like I was last year. I definitely wanted to make sure that when I came back I’d be doing more of driving the baseball and focusing on executing those spots like I was last year rather than throwing it in there. (Now) I feel more timed up. I feel like everything is more crisp and on point. I’m excited to take it out there, not think about it and go compete.” (credit to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) Erick Fedde (4.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 22.1 innings) mans the dirt for Washington today, who we trust much less. Fedde has a 66% LOB so far and those Atlanta bats looked awfully comfortable last night at Nationals Park. It’ll be another mild and humid day– Braves bats stay hot, Fried gets a win and some nice regression. Go ATL!
Royals first 5 (+145), 1 unit: In any sport you bet, the key is to look for value, right? Kansas City has been slightly out-classed by the Indians in 2 games but they’re still a top 10 offense and Shane Bieber (2.76 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 42.1 innings) hasn’t been unhittable this year. Bieber looks to be rounding into form and he certainly shows endurance, but he’s a bit overutilized as the Indians ace. He’s averaging over 7 innings per game thus far. He’s a young hot shot arm but is that sustainable? We’ll see. Kansas City has scored in this series, they’re just getting out-paced and slightly out-pitched. Brady Singer (3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 23.1 innings) is certainly more fresh than Bieber since he only pitched 2 innings in his last start against Minnesota. That was a bullpen game for KC and I think it’ll serve him well today. The Royals were hot out the gate but they’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games while the Indians are on the opposite boat, winning 7 of their last 9. At home, more desperate and behind a formidable, rested arm– I’ll take KC in the first 5.
