Well the 76ers collapsed after Embiid went down, which is obviously not something I saw coming, and now Philadelphia is in a bit of a pinch after their display in the second half last night. Simmons can’t make free throws, the front court feels more shallow– they better hope Embiid is back healthy soon. We still earned a 1-1 night with the Jazz covering at Memphis, another impressive win from the NBA’s top team, and we head to Tuesday with a 20-9 record over the last 9 days. Let’s get to today’s picks:
Parlay- Nets win 1Q + 1Q over 59 (1 unit to win 1.67 units): This is a huge line for a playoff game, even if the difference between these two teams is wide and vast. Naturally I’d like to be on Boston but we’ve seen what the Nets can do when they’re in-sync. Instead, I’ll look at a first quarter bet. The Nets should come into this contest full of the same adrenaline and confidence that had them win game four. Despite Boston’s tough-fought win in game three, Brooklyn showed no compassion and no relent in letting the lesser team know just how less talented they are. An offensive display from the big 3 on Sunday helped put 141 points on the scoreboard and ultimately a 15 point margin between them and their foe. Now the Nets head home, hoping to seal the series with a 4th win on Tuesday night. If they blow it, I’ll be shocked.
The first quarter started off slower in the first two games of this series. In games three and four, the Nets and Celtics combined for well over 60 points in the first 12 minutes of play. The more Brooklyn and their big 3 play together, the more rhythm and chemistry they’ll show from the opening tipoff. The energy at the Barclays Center will be bumpin’ and the Nets’ stars are off their biggest combined playoff game yet– Durant had 42, Kyrie had 39 and Harden added 23 in their most recent win. Brooklyn’s recipe for success will be simple: control the pace, create high percentage shots, and overwhelm Boston from the get-go. I’m all over this parlay for a healthy + unit gain.
Nuggets -2 (-110), 1.5 units: I feel pretty strongly that the Nuggets will win tonight but Denver hasn’t always shown their best selves in this series. When Portland is humming on offense, they confuse the Nuggets and make it really hard for them to come back. Denver wins by setting the tone and pace of the game and if they don’t, they’re often in trouble. That being said, this is a much better spot for the Nuggets. Off a bad 20 point loss and returning home, proud after all the adversity they fought through this year, I expect we’ll see the best side of Denver tonight. I think we’ll also see a very efficient Nikola Jokic.
Game four was an ugly game for Denver but we shouldn’t take it too seriously. The talented Nuggets shot a wretched 34% from the field and only 29.5% from beyond the arc. They also had more turnovers, fewer fast break points, and fewer points in the paint than Portland. For a team as big and athletic as Denver (especially compared to Portland), that shouldn’t happen. In addition, Jokic had one of his worst nights to date. The big man was only 7-18 from the field for 16 measly points. Needless to say, the books have his point total as double that amount tonight and for good reason.
I think this is a game where Portland chases, which makes me lean to the total going over, but I can’t take a side on the total since this is a crucial game five. I could see the pace slowing down as the nerves climb and these two teams haven’t exactly lit the court on fire with their tempo so far (they rank second slowest only to Dallas/LAC in postseason pace). Regardless, Denver is comfortable at home (they were 25-11 at Ball Arena in the regular season) and no doubt poised for redemption after that bad showing on Saturday. While I’m sure this one will go down to the wire, I trust Denver to cover the light 2 points and tilt the series in their favor. This is a big game for the Joker and in the Joker we trust!
Suns win first half (-180), 2.5 units and Lakers/Suns over 209 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. Boy oh boy, this is one hell of a series. How quickly things can change in sports, right? One second it looks like the Lakers are marching strong and may end up in another NBA Finals. In games two and three, LAL looked like the vastly bigger, vastly more experienced, and vastly superior team. Anthony Davis and Lebron were on fire and the rest of their skill players followed. Then Anthony Davis took a spill (for like the 1000th time this year) in game four and, again, his knee waved the white flag and wouldn’t you know it– he won’t play in tonight’s crucial game five. Bummer, at least for Lakers fans, but it’s also not the way anyone wants to see the playoffs go down. Embiid left yesterday’s game, Luka has a neck issue, and now Anthony Davis? It sucks. A huge aspect to winning titles is health and luck. If you can maintain your health and you get lucky facing other teams who can’t, suddenly the championship path is less foggy. We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Lakers’ tumultuous season.
Still, if we learned one thing through the years, it’s to not count out Lebron James. For that simple intangible reason I can’t bet on the Suns -5, it’s damn near over two possessions, but I do lean their side. Phoenix is back at home and it’s a really good thing that Chris Paul looks healthier. Without him they’re not the same team. Just ask Devin Booker. The young star has been a bit volatile through 4 games with his leader fighting injuries but it feels like a huge performance from Booker is looming. This could be the spot. With Ayton playing aggressively and other contributors finding a rhythm at home, I think we’ll see a highly efficient Phoenix offense tonight. Chris Paul and company know that the Lakers’ scoring ability is limited and if they can create margin like they did in game four, they can ride their exceptional defense and sharpshooting roster to another win.
Lebron isn’t his young and spry self anymore and I’m just not sure that he can shoulder a below-average offense like he did in the past. He needs Davis. I expect the Suns to come out confident and with chemistry in the first half and, since I expect them to control the pace of the game, I see the Lakers playing catch-up for 48 minutes. That should result in an inflated total, though I’ll only put 1 unit on it since the under just keeps hitting.
