What a slate of games we have today. The Canadians who are fresh off a Game 7 win, travel to Winnipeg to take on the Jets. Out West, we have Vegas looking for redemption after a Game 1 beat down by the Avalanche.
Montreal Canadians (+115) @ Winnipeg Jets (-135)
The Canadians battled back to win three straight games to overtake the Leafs in Round 1. Winnipeg had an easier road in Round 1, sweeping the Oilers in four straight. However, the last of three of those games did go to overtime. The Jets clearly have the initial advantage in rest as they’ve had more days off between series.
Connor Hellebuyck and Carey Price were both the major story lines for their squads in the first round. Connor Hellebuyck struggled against the Oilers all season and put all that behind him. He starts this series with the second best GSAx of +7.5 in the playoffs. Carey Price has a slightly worse GSAx of +6.8 but was still unbelievable for the Habs, specifically in Game 7.
The Jets enter this Series as the better team analytically leading the Canadians in xGF and high danger scoring chances. Both of these teams were more physical than their opponents in the first series, which was a major factor in advancing. Montreal cant push the Jets around like the did the Maple Leafs, which I believe will give them some issues. The Jets and Habs both have one of the lowest Goals % and xGoals %. Given the low scoring games and goalie play, I like Game 1 to stay under the total of 5.5.
Picks: Under 5.5 (-135)
Vegas Golden Knights (+165) @ Colorado Avalanche (-185)
Colorado has clearly been the best team all season, and now in the post season. The odds reflect that as well, as they are currently the leaders at +140 to win the Stanley Cup. The Avalanche dominated the Knights on the scoreboard in the series opener winning 7-1. I say on the scoreboard, because the Avalanche only had a 2.63 to 2.39 expected goal advantage.
The difference in Game 1 was the goaltending, specifically Vegas. I understand that you’d want to rest Fleury in Game 1 after a long series and try to get Lehner into the playoffs but, he clearly was not ready for what the Av’s threw his way. Lehner had a -4.37 GSAx in the Series opener compared to Fleury’s +3.2 GSAx throughout the playoffs. I understand that the sample size is different and so were the opponents but that’s a drastic difference that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Marc Andre Fleury, a 2021 Vezina Trophy Finalist, has been confirmed the starter for Game 2 so that should help the Knights. Philipp Grubauer who is also a 2021 Vezina Trophy Finalist, is the expected starter for Colorado. Grubauer had a +1.39 GSAx in Game 1, which is on par for him as he has a +1.30 GSAx overall for the playoffs.
This is a tough game as Vegas ml does offer some value but based on Colorado’s play, it’s difficult not to back them. Colorado has the best Goals % and Goal Differential in the playoffs so far. Game 2 should be closer as the Av’s clearly had the fresher legs in Game 1. Even with that being said, Colorado is the better team and should win Game 2 as well.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche in Regulation -0.5 (-135)
