Sadly I had my first losing day in a long time Sunday (I’m not sure how long it’s been, at least 2 weeks) when I went 0-2 betting on the Sixers to win and the Mavs to cover. I was surprised by those results but in this industry you can’t hang onto it for too long. It surely makes it easier to forget knowing we’re 30-18 betting the NBA over the last 2 weeks. Onto our Monday picks!
Bucks win (-105), 1.5 units and Bucks/Nets 1Q over 58.5 (-110), 2 units: The first quarter line has crept up to 59.5 but I still like it there, too. My analysis of a first quarter total bet is simple– teams usually play to their strengths in the first 12 minutes of NBA competition. Adrenaline is flowing, they’re anxious and excited to perform, and these days that usually means a showcase of offensive prowess. Of course that’s especially true with these two juggernauts. After the first period of play adjustments are made and in the playoffs, that usually means more contested shots and better defensive schemes in the following quarters. It also means a slower pace. We took advantage of that in game one of this series. The Bucks and Nets started off blazing hot, scoring 62 points in the first quarter. The second quarter had the same result. Then at least one team started to slow down– Milwaukee only scored 23 points in the 3rd and 4th quarters (46 total) as the Nets clamped down and made life difficult for Giannis and his teammates. That’s why I like earlier quarters for betting on the over in the postseason– it has less nuance.
As far as the side goes, the Bucks are now a favorite at most books and I agree with the move. Typically I’m not a big Milwaukee guy and I tend to think that eventually, they’ll fold. They’ve shown us that side to them before and it reared its ugly head again in game one. The Bucks were only 11-19 from the free throw line, an astoundingly bad 6-30 from beyond the arc (20%), and players like Khris Middleton (6-23), Jrue Holiday (7-19) and others had really poor outings. Despite my lack of belief in Milwaukee to win the NBA Finals, I was very high on them entering this series. They’re playing with an aggression and moxie that we haven’t seen before; it appears the #3 seed did them good.
Do I think the Bucks will win this series? I’m not sure. But they’re good enough and fired up enough to beat the Nets tonight. Going down 0-2 to Brooklyn is the last thing the Bucks want (or need) and we have to expect some positive regression from Giannis’ supporting cast tonight. If the Greek-freak isn’t alone like he was Saturday, I think the Bucks will catch the home team by surprise and tie up the series before it heads to Milwaukee.
Nuggets/Suns over 220 (-110), 1.5 units: I was able to snag this line before it went up even higher. I won’t take a side in game one, I want to observe these two teams and how they look against each other in postseason play, but one play I do really like is taking the over. At least on paper, there are significant mismatches that favor both offenses here.
DeAndre Ayton is long and young and athletic and should be able to find ways to work around Nikola Jokic. Michael Porter Jr., the 6’10” forward that’s been blossoming since Denver’s star guard Jamal Murray tore his ACL in April, will tower over Bridges and Crowder and should have ample opportunities at a clear shot. Nuggets’ guards Rivers and Campazzo are solid players but they don’t have the quickness or playmaking ability of Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Jokic is the leading MVP candidate, he’ll get his, and Aaron Gordon and Jae Crowder are dynamic big men that can post up or launch 3s without hesitation.
As I write this I wonder if I’m devaluing how good the Suns are on defense. Perhaps I am, but only because of what I’ve seen from Denver. Although we saw Phoenix impressively blockade the Lakers’ bigs, severely limiting their output all series, the Nuggets are not the Lakers. They’re more athletic, better shooters, and significantly more efficient. By comparison, Denver was rated 7th overall in offensive efficiency throughout the regular season. LAL was ranked 24th. In the postseason, the Nuggets are top 3 in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 120 points in 4 out of their last 5 games.
In short, I’m not worried about Denver’s production and I’m even less worried about Phoenix. While the Nuggets are a decent defensive team, they didn’t win their series against Portland because of great defense. They won by setting the pace and by methodical, fluid team basketball, particularly on offense. Tonight they’ll attempt to stifle a Suns’ offense that the #1 defensive team in the NBA (LAL) couldn’t stop. Maybe I’m a pessimist by nature but I don’t see Denver having a ton of success in that area.
I lean to the Suns +5 at home but for an opening playoff game in a quarterfinals series, I’ll just stick with a play on the total soaring over. According to John Ryan Sports, the Suns are 11-4-1 (73%) OVER the posted total when facing an opponent that is scoring at or above the NBA average of 112.1 ppg this season. In three regular season games, the Nuggets/Suns totals went for 209, 256, and 232– an average well above the total for tonight. Gotta love having backup stats– it’s the over for me!
