I don’t know too many sports bettors who had an exceptional week in MLB meeting the last 7 days and I’m definitely one of them. Dusting ourselves off and back for more– here are 3 plays I like today. Let’s win!
Giants -1.5 (-105), 1.5 units: Two organizations going in opposite directions, one run superbly well while the other seems to be regressing by the week, and I have a first bet I really like today. NL Cy Young and MVP contender Kevin Gausman (1.68 ERA, 0.81 WHIP over 101.2 innings) leads the 53-30, 1st place Giants into Monday evening in an early game against the visiting Cardinals, who have now lost 9 of their last 14 contests and are 4th in the NL Central standings. Gausman needs no introduction. He’s deserving of his MVP candidacy and has the numbers to prove it, boasting a 2.71 xERA, 2.66 FIP, an LOB rate of 86.4% and still limiting hitters to only 0.71 HR/9 innings. The Giants are better at home and in games where the Cardinals start Kwang Hyun Kim (3.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 59.1 innings) on the road, they’re only 2-4 on the season. I trust the Giants to dominate this contest and keep their momentum going.
Mets (+112),1 unit: This is a really sneaky line and that’s why I’m taking the Mets. Brewers’ ace Brandon Woodruff (1.78 ERA, 0.78 WHIP over 101 innings) is on the mound today and will rival Mets’ young gun Tylor Megill, who in only 2 starts this year has looked decent. He allowed 2 runs in one showing and 3 in another, both against the big-hitting Braves. According to FanGraphs, “he’s getting by with a good slider (21% SwStr%, 57% GB%) and change (28% SwStr%, 50% GB%).” While there’s still plenty unknown for New York’s arm today, it’s strange that Woodruff is only bringing a -125 value for the visiting Brewers. Shouldn’t it be more with a Cy Young candidate and his elite profile (he’s 3rd overall in ERA and 2nd overall in WHIP among major league pitchers)? Both of these teams sit at the top of their respective divisions but I know plenty of sharp baseball minds that expect Milwaukee to experience some negative regression in the coming months. The same can be said for New York, but at least they’re at home and in a more contentious division. Wins matter more. I’ll take the Mets in an upset.
Tigers (+143), 1 unit: This is another number play — the Rangers don’t deserve a -157 price here. Wily Peralta won’t strike fear into his opponents but the veteran pitcher has a solid profile– 3.21 ERA, 75.8% LOB rate, .190 BABIP, and has quickly earned his stripes after receiving a triple-A contract for Detroit this season. He’ll take on a Texas offense that’s an inconsistent as it gets. The Rangers are in the bottom half and often the bottom quadrant in most batting categories. Kolby Allard (TX- 3.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 52 innings) has had some nice starts lately but the numbers may be deceiving. His “slightly below average swing and miss rate might expose some cracks. A 22-to-4 K-to-BB ratio in his last five starts looks impressive but is not likely sustainable based on his ability to induce a swing and miss in the zone.” (courtesy of www.sportswagers.ca) The Tigers have been streaking lately due to disciplined execution and exceptional in-game adjustments. They’ve recently won series against the White Sox and Indians and tied their series 2-2 with the Astros. I’m buying into it. The price on Detroit is too good to pass and the premium you have to pay for a subpar Rangers’ team is absurd. I’ll take the dog.
