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Mets (-157), 2 units: The Mets are hanging onto the NL East standings by a very thin thread and now they head down to Miami for a 4 game series against their division rival and the NL East’s last placed team. It’s no secret that Miami hangs its head on their pitching talent. Despite their struggles, they’re 5th overall in collective ERA (3.55), 7th in collective FIP (3.70), 8th in BABIP (.280), and 9th in ground ball rate (44.5%)– all top 10 marks. They’re also in the top half of MLB in a slew of other defensive categories. Monday they’ll host a Mets team who needs to improve on the mound, but unfortunately they’re starting Jesus Luzardo (6.87 ERA, 5.00 xERA, 2.61 HR/9 innings over 38 innings). Luzardo is usually in a relief role and it’s likely he won’t last long today. He should have significant issues holding command against a capable Mets’ offense.
Over their last 6 games against two inconsistent offenses in Atlanta and Cincinnati, New York has allowed 36 runs; for those of you who aren’t math majors that’s 6 points given up per game. If NYM wants to hold onto first place, that brand of defense won’t do it. Insert Tylor Megill (2.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 35.1 innings). Though he’s only started 7 times this year, Megill’s numbers are impressive. His velocity is solid (94.6 mph four-seam), he boasts a 93% LOB rate, and his xERA of 2.32 tells me he’s not worth selling any time soon. The Marlins already suffer from a subpar lineup ranked in the bottom third of the league in most categories. They’re also 29th in wOBA (weighted on base average), a stat that we think reflects a team’s offense better than most of those other ancillary figures. Ergo, me thinks Megill can handle the Miami bats just fine. I’m on the Mets.
Phillies -1.5 (+140). 1 unit: If the Phillies want to contend for anything serious this year, they need more stable pitching. Their offense gets a ton of credit but the truth is they’re really just average, ranking smack dab in the middle of the majors in many important categories such as runs, RBIs, wOBA, batting average, and slugging percentage. The hope is that trade acquisition Kyle Gibson and up-and-comer Ranger Suarez (1.12 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 40.1 innings) can give their ballclub a better chance. It was announced that Suarez will continue to start for Philadelphia and that seems like a smart move. The 25 year old has a great build for a starter and boasts a homerun rate of 0.67/9 innings, 85.8% LOB rate, and a 2.69 xERA. Although he’s only served as a support pitcher thus far, Suarez has a ton of potential and appears poised for more success. The Nationals, who will start newcomer Josiah Gray Monday, gave up Schwarber, Turner, and ace Max Scherzer before the trade deadline. Now they stumble into the latter part of the season as a different team. Disappointed by bad performances following the All-Star break, it’s hard to imagine Washington competing in the postseason this year. The Phillies exploded behind Gibson yesterday, pounding the Pirates in a 15-4 win at PNC Park. While I’m sure that sort of expressed potential won’t continue on a daily basis, the Phillies have more steam and more to play for entering this contest. I’m on the Phillies by margin for a second straight day.
Rays -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Mariners’ pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 points over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it’s hard to like their chances against anyone right now. It’s even harder to like them against the Rays. Seattle’s Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn’t have the worst numbers. He’s a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he’s pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings. That’s a tad alarming. Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who’s far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha’s profile isn’t very exhilarating– his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing homeruns (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he’s due for some negative regression, but I think the Rays bats can make up for that. I’m on Tampa Bay by margin.
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