Tampa Bay vs Minnesota -107 O/U 9.5
It is true that the Twins are the biggest disappointment in baseball this year and you will get no arguments from me but I have a question for you. Are you a sinner? The reason that I ask this is because it would be a sin to not fade Wacha on the road here. Michael has a 5.97 FIP and a 1.66 WHIP when leaving the freedom state, and while Tampa has been hitting much better lately, Minnesota at least has their best pitcher going in Kenta Maeda who has a 2.77 FIP at home and a 1.27 WHIP. The Twinkies quietly rank 10th in wRC+ which tells me that they will score a few runs here. Twins are also mispriced slightly due to BABIP. I have to take the Twins 1st 5 to be on the safe side.
Twins – 1st 5 -125 – 2 stars
Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins -148 O/U 7.5
Here is another strange price. The Marlins are in last place and won’t be making the playoffs but they at least still have some guys left. The Cubs sent a message loud and clear that they are rebuilding and they are not even a shell of what we saw last year. Stats do not justify this game after the trades but what certainly does is Zach Thompson pitching for the Miami who has a 3.78 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP vs the other Zach in Zach Davies who has a 5.14 FIP and 1.57 walks and hits over innings pitched. Too add punishment to the pain, the Cubs best player in Wilson Contreres in on the shelf with a knee sprain. Grab the fish at the low price.
Miami -148 – 1.5 stars
